No Newspoll this week, which is holding back for the resumption of parliament next week. However, we do have a new Victorian state poll out from ReachTEL, which you can read about in the post directly below this one, along with an update of my poll aggregation from the state. The Guardian should bring us results from Essential Research’s regular fortnightly federal poll overnight tomorrow. Also on the polling front:
• The Fairfax papers have reported state breakdowns aggregated from the last three monthly Ipsos polls, which mix one poll from before the leadership coup, one from the immediate lead-up to it, and one from a month after. This shows Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 in the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged), 52-48 in Queensland (unchanged) and 51-49 in Western Australia (an unusual 53-47 to the Coalition last time), while the Coalition leads 51-48 in South Australia (52-48 to Labor last time).
• The Guardian reports on another poll in Wentworth, conducted for the Refugee Council of Australia, which I’m going to assume was a ReachTEL although the report doesn’t say. This one is particularly interesting in providing two-party results for Liberal-versus-Phelps as well as Liberal-versus-Labor. This suggests Phelps will win 53-47 if only she can get ahead of Labor. However, the primary votes suggest she has a hurdle to clear, with Dave Sharma (Liberal) on 38.1%, Tim Murray (Labor) on 24.5%, Kerryn Phelps (independent) on 15.9% and others in single digits (there may be an undecided component in the mix of perhaps around 5% or 6% as well). The Liberal-versus-Labor result is consistent with earlier polling in showing it to be extemely close: 50-50 in this case. However, as with the previous polls, this is based on Labor receiving around two-third of preferences from mostly conservative independent candidates, which seems a bit much. The sample for the poll was 870; no field work date is provided. UPDATE: Ben Raue has provided the full numbers. After inclusion of a forced response follow-up for the 4.8% undecided, the primary votes are Sharma 39.9%, Murray 25.0%, Phelps 17.3%, Greens 9.1%, Heath 3.6%. Respondents were also asked how they had voted in 2016, and the responses are fairly well in line with the actual result.
Also on Wentworth, my guide to the by-election has been expanded and updated. Antony Green’s guide offers a particularly useful survey of the how-to-vote card situation that makes use of the term “virtue signalling”. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph has taken aim at the Greens for putting Labor ahead of Kerryn Phelps – which, he correctly notes, reduces her chances of overtaking Labor and making the final count, at which she would receive a stronger flow of preferences than Labor and thus stand a better chance of defeating the Liberals. But as Antony Green also rightly notes, “Green voters are a tough flock to herd”.
Boerwar @ #187 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 10:03 am
Nope. Lying degenerates like Trump, Kavanaugh, Sanders, Conway, and the rest fully deserve their verbal lynchings.
To the extent that they incubate bullshit conspiracy theories, yes.
No. But neither is it time to start defending, accepting, respecting, or falling in line behind stupidity just because there happens to be a lot of it going around.
Barney in Go Dau (Block)
Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 10:25 am
Comment #160
By George, I think …………..
By George I think I’ve got it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgI2dXMrRac
Bolsonaro 46.6% to Haddad 28.4% in first round Brazil Presidential election.
Hard to imagine he won’t now win run-off in three weeks.
https://tendaily.com.au/news/australia/a181007gsb/pm-laughs-off-opera-house-anger-its-not-as-though-theyre-painting-it-20181007
William Bowe @ #88 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 6:22 am
Ah ha.
Also this.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/07/wentworth-byelection-liberals-attack-kerryn-phelps-with-nasty-pamphlets
Could Labor do a Bradbury?
DaretoTread @ #199 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 11:15 am
Lack of women in the Liberal caucus now and in future and getting kids off Nauru will be the issues post Wentworth. As I posted JB is already mapping out a separate Foreign Policy this week as well.
The Liberalgettes rallying around Bishop will provide lots of fun and games in coming weeks.
@guardiantweets
IPCC climate change report calls for urgent action to phase out fossil fuels – live https://trib.al/hvuwFjd
You can tell by the picture the Bolsonaro is up to no good:
ar
The legislation has not yet passed in Qld but I think I heard a snippet that said that the LNP were giving a conscience vote. If do then I think QLD might join the 21st century.
For those of you who drink from the Qld =redneck cup (I did myself when i was a silly southerner) you just do not get it.
SEQ and inner city is more Melbourne than Sydney so is in a sense very green/lefty. In the seat of Brisbane last election we had the bizarre reality that both the ALP and LNP had openly gay candidates. Ryan has I think one of the highest internet uptakes (or did). The seat of Dickson has a pocket of Green voters that exceeds booths in Melbourne. The music scene is dynamic as is the arts scene. There is a Greens STATE member and now a BCC councillor , which for those not in the know, is pretty much run like a state government and is larger in population that the state of Tasmania.
Yes there are regional red necks, but the Shooters and Fishers do not do well, but their vote goes to PHON.
Dtt,
Lucy Wicks would be firmly in the Pentecostalist PM’s camp, being one herself.
OT, but worth a read. Oz science can be pretty cool. 🙂
https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/funnel-web-spider-can-kill-melanoma-cells-and-tassie-devil-tumours-20181005-p5080z.html
C@tmomma @ #186 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 11:02 am
I’m sure you’re right C@t. We’re in the inner east though, and it is very mixed. Our local friends and neighbours are committed Labor, by preselection 😉 , but it would be nice to get something in the letterbox. Praps I should volunteer?
Good luck to C@t & Son, and Mrs Shellbell.
Congratulations also to William for getting a mention in Fairfax.
Indeed!
GG
Yes i noticed the Bishop speech stuff although not very specific.
However would Bishop differ much from Payne?
Foreign Policy is i think the biggest issue facing Australia, because i fear that we are very soon going to be forced to take sides in the coming hot/cold war between USA and (China, Russia, Iran).
So how do we cope without that China trade. Maybe we will do OK but it will be a huge economic upheaval.
Morrison knows when you laugh off something people are concerned about you immediately trivialise their concerns, especially when you are in a position of power and capable of doing something about it but just blow it off. He’s evil that way.
Thanks Cat
I knew nothing about her.
What surprises me, is that when people describe the electorate of Wentworth, I would expect an above average GRN vote. Is that being gobbled up by all the independents?
Thanks Question! 🙂
[Boerwar says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 10:20 am
‘vote1julia says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 7:02 am
William reports, above, that in Wentworth “Greens [are] putting Labor ahead of Kerryn Phelps.”
Where is the outrage from the Greens haters on this blog? Surely this must a be a Greens ruse? But wait, Phelps is preferencing the Liberals. This may have something to do with it. A united progressive left, hard to beat.’
This is the Greens being totally politically stupid and totally self-righteous, at both of which they excel. Phelps has to get ahead of Labor in order to beat Sharma. The correct choice for the Greens to defeat Sharma and weaken the Morrison Government was to preference Phelps above Labor.
But, no.]
A perceptive analysis Bw.
And perhaps the same approach should be applied to Phelps preferencing LNP.
Every vote Phelps can take off the LNP increases the slight chances of knocking off Sharma. By Phelps preferencing LNP she makes herself a safe-house for disaffected LNP supporters to go outside the tent and make a little protest. From a Labor perspective it doesn’t really matter what the result is as long as Sharma loses. The result is a disaster for the LNP.
Whilst there is some justification in the criticism by Z and GG of Wright, the result of an LNP loss could yet be huge. Insiders indicted that LNP moderates are holding off until after the Wentworth by-election to then start rocking the boat. Abbotteers are unlikely to keep quiet.
No one could be happy with an accidental PM whose climate change “policy” boils up to that tested evidence-based practice “praying for rain” and whose energy price reduction policy is, if possible, even more faith-based.
Duttonites are unlikely to be motivated to protect him. A loss in Wentworth could be a catalyst for such significant internal upheaval Morrison will call an election to try to gain control and give him some authority, beyond being not MT and not Dutton.
That would be an election a drover’s dog would win. In a landslide.
Latham’s deft defence takes a cut: the latest from the Federal Court defamatorium. https://www.smh.com.au/national/mark-latham-s-ill-considered-defamation-defence-takes-a-cut-20181008-p508ca.html
_______________________________
Mr Shorten doing a presser now. Amanda Wishworth speaking
Couple of questions is Tony Walker a former Lib power broker? Who owns the SMH?
The greens Phelps stuff would make sense if Phelps hadn’t preferenced Lib, split ticket, or preference Lab and she deserves greens preferences, the greens can’t preference someone who has given the libs an endorsement like Phelps did.
It is entirely Phelps fault. It was obvious and predictable.
DTT
Australia does not have to choose. Not unless its open war between the US and China.
We are already in the TPP. While I sympathise with some of the complaints from the Greens I think Labor has made the correct decision.
That means we get to avoid picking sides. Unless a hot war breaks out. If that happens concerns about the economy and trade won’t be big until after the war has ended except for impact on the war
Attended an interesting talk from an expert in body language and tonality, where the positive and negative traits of several politicians where used as examples of things to do or avoid. Some takeaways:
Scotty from the Shire
Finishes an answer to a question with a closed, down turned mouth – meaning end of conversation
When nodding, his head actually moves backwards – meaning arrogant
When under pressure, voice goes higher and faster through holding breath – meaning under pressure
Trump
Holds arms wide, palms facing audience – meaning welcoming, trust me, nothing to hide
When under pressure, elbows pinned to side, forearms waving – meaning under pressure
Obama
The master of body language and tone – key points being lower body set, feet parallel, arms in front, hand clasping wrist, voice lower, slower and louder – meaning I’m the leader you can trust and follow
Julia Gillard
Broke every body language and tone rule in the book, despite coaching.
https://www.theage.com.au/by/tony-walker-j7gew
Bill Shorten
Defending the Opera House and declaring it’s not a Billboard.
Good defence of Louise Herron from Mr Shorten. 🙂
WWP
Maybe you are thinking of Ron Walker. Now deceased former Melbourne Mayor, Grand Prix chief, Liberal Party treasurer, Fairfax director … among other things.
Mr Morrison you are not a marketing executive you are the Prime Minister of Australia
While I don’t have an issue with the Opera House being used in this way, I have a question.
What was the original reason for the request being turned down?
This seems to have been lost in the shouting. 🙂
Thanks re Tony GG.
Wow, Latham brought up the persecution of Christian martyrs by the ancient Romans in his defence.
The most unhinged former leader of a major party in my memory by quite some margin.
guytaur:
Legislative councils often seem to be an impediment to progressive policies; for example, the passage of the euthanasia bill was defeated by one miserable vote in the NSW LC.
The view of many that Queensland is populated by rednecks is passé given the number of Mexicans moving up here, particularly in the SE region, one of the manifestations of which was Annastacia Palaszczuk defeating Campbell Newman after one term, with a commanding majority. Indeed, after the 2015 election Labor could caucus in a phone booth.
The numbers in the LA are: Labor 48; Tories 39; KAP, 3; PHON 1, Greens 1; independent 1 – giving Labor an overall majority of three; four if the Green votes with Labor. I’ll stand to be corrected, but I think the vote on abortion will be a matter of conscience. Yet I’m confident that it’ll pass muster
Overall I think upper houses (excepting the Senate) are a waste of money, a place for seat warmers, no better evidenced than by Fred Nile.
Barney in Go Dau @ #231 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 11:47 am
Crass commercialism on a World Heritage Site iirc.
“Maybe you are thinking of Ron Walker. Now deceased former Melbourne Mayor, Grand Prix chief, Liberal Party treasurer, Fairfax director … among other things.”
Could easily be.
“The most unhinged leader of a major party in my memory by quite some margin.”
I think you missed out the word ‘former’.
For sale ❓
Excellent viewing area. Naming rights available.
Aunt Mavis
My view on Upper Houses is long term.
Prevents winner take all syndrome. Prevents worst excesses like Queensland suffered with Gerrymander of a vote. Yes Upper Houses seem to slow down some issues. However in the scheme of things those states with upper houses are more progressive than ones without.
Progressive parties seem to push their agenda more than as their legislation is not immediately reversed by the conservatives.
A case of it seems harder to start but it stays for the long term.
Boris no longer editor of the Oz, now boss of Sky news. C Dore moved to the Oz from the daily tele. Probably hard to spot any differences.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/companies/paul-whittaker-appointed-sky-news-ceo-in-major-news-corp-shake-up-20181008-p508cg.html
ItzaDream @ #235 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 11:49 am
To the likes of Morrison and his ilk, the sails of the Opera House are nothing more than a billboard.
Barney
The Opera House agreed to project colours of the horses onto its sails without logos or numbers, or the event names. That wasnt enough for Racing NSW chie +Alan Jones.
They ruled it was inappropriate for a world heritage site to display the advertising.
RR@5:25am
Look what happened to that Ted B guy who won 2010 election. Libs learnt from his removal as Premier how not to give any reasons when they remove one and executed that plan on MT.
I’m not entirely sure what a ‘bogan’ is, but I think Morrison may be a representative.
VP
Clearing the decks for more Foxification of the news from Murdoch.
@CFMEUJohnSetka tweets
.@GladysB
The NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian says the
Sydney Opera House should be used to ‘promote important events.’ I think Australians needing a pay rise is more important than a horse race?
#ChangeTheRules
#auspol https://twitter.com/CFMEUJohnSetka/status/1049096890841591808/photo/1
Good luck C@tmomma
KayJay @ #238 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 11:52 am
They just need to fill in those ridiculous blank spaces. Dog knows what those architects were thinking.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/scott-morrison-resists-calls-to-withdraw-from-paris-climate-agreement
The new head of SkyFoxNews Paul ‘The RatBag’ Whittaker has some questionable drinking mates –