No Newspoll this week, which is holding back for the resumption of parliament next week. However, we do have a new Victorian state poll out from ReachTEL, which you can read about in the post directly below this one, along with an update of my poll aggregation from the state. The Guardian should bring us results from Essential Research’s regular fortnightly federal poll overnight tomorrow. Also on the polling front:
• The Fairfax papers have reported state breakdowns aggregated from the last three monthly Ipsos polls, which mix one poll from before the leadership coup, one from the immediate lead-up to it, and one from a month after. This shows Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 in the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged), 52-48 in Queensland (unchanged) and 51-49 in Western Australia (an unusual 53-47 to the Coalition last time), while the Coalition leads 51-48 in South Australia (52-48 to Labor last time).
• The Guardian reports on another poll in Wentworth, conducted for the Refugee Council of Australia, which I’m going to assume was a ReachTEL although the report doesn’t say. This one is particularly interesting in providing two-party results for Liberal-versus-Phelps as well as Liberal-versus-Labor. This suggests Phelps will win 53-47 if only she can get ahead of Labor. However, the primary votes suggest she has a hurdle to clear, with Dave Sharma (Liberal) on 38.1%, Tim Murray (Labor) on 24.5%, Kerryn Phelps (independent) on 15.9% and others in single digits (there may be an undecided component in the mix of perhaps around 5% or 6% as well). The Liberal-versus-Labor result is consistent with earlier polling in showing it to be extemely close: 50-50 in this case. However, as with the previous polls, this is based on Labor receiving around two-third of preferences from mostly conservative independent candidates, which seems a bit much. The sample for the poll was 870; no field work date is provided. UPDATE: Ben Raue has provided the full numbers. After inclusion of a forced response follow-up for the 4.8% undecided, the primary votes are Sharma 39.9%, Murray 25.0%, Phelps 17.3%, Greens 9.1%, Heath 3.6%. Respondents were also asked how they had voted in 2016, and the responses are fairly well in line with the actual result.
Also on Wentworth, my guide to the by-election has been expanded and updated. Antony Green’s guide offers a particularly useful survey of the how-to-vote card situation that makes use of the term “virtue signalling”. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph has taken aim at the Greens for putting Labor ahead of Kerryn Phelps – which, he correctly notes, reduces her chances of overtaking Labor and making the final count, at which she would receive a stronger flow of preferences than Labor and thus stand a better chance of defeating the Liberals. But as Antony Green also rightly notes, “Green voters are a tough flock to herd”.
The maths of dividend imputation as they stand today
With no tax liability (so a pensioner, a partly or fully self funded retiree or a “Doctor’s wife”, you buy 5550 NAB Shares at $36- (plus brokerage)
Cost $200,000-
This investment returns a fully franked dividend of say $8,000 PA – plus the imputation credit taking the “dividend” to say $14,000 PA
So, over 4 years this strategy has put $56,000- into your pocket to live on
But the NAB Share Price is now $26-, so your 5,550 Shares are now worth $144,000-
A Capital loss equaling what you have spent over the last 4 years
And we have the (correct in my view) Gittens view that Bank share prices are not going up any time soon (they are selling their rivers of gold Fund Manager and Insurance businesses)
And yet the likes of Dixon continue to defend their advice regardless of ultimate outcome
The object in retirement is to maintain and increase principal – and to live on the earnings not the draw down of principal
After all it is compounding that has delivered wealth so why now embrace reverse compounding?
To ride the ebbs and flows and to mitigate against risk you need diversity across the asset classes and with a Global spread
Not the advice of Dixon and his ilk to buy Australian bank shares (and Telstra!!) because of the availability of a tax rort which is not sustainable and leads to wrong investment decisions
Upper Houses, as we mostly know them here, are definitely about providing inertia in the political system. This is a result of having longer terms and staggered terms, so normally to fully control an Upper House in Australia you have to win big at 2 consecutive elections.
Of course this inertia is inherently a ‘conservative’ factor because it acts against rapid change, but that’s generally a good thing. In Queensland a Campbell Newman can get elected in one election and rip up land clearing laws with no constraint and no review; I don’t see that as a good thing.
But you don’t need an Upper House to provide this inertia – it’s the staggering of terms that gives you that, and you could do that in a single Lower House chamber. My preferred model atm is a single Lower House Chamber elected using MMP but with staggered terms.
Interesting results in the Braziilian presidential election. Far-right candidate almost secured a victory in the first round avoiding a run off election. Secured 47% of the vote compared to the next guy (leftist) on 28%. Those two will go on to the second round of voting on Oct 29.
Although up to 25% of ballots may have been spoilt/blank. Interesting to see if they vote the same in round two or coalesce around one of the candidates.
They need to turn the wasted space in the forecourt, into a used car dealership – perfect cross promotion.
Guytaur
I am not sure why you think the TPP is particularly relevant in a hot/cold war with China.
My feeling is that although we will not have a hot war ie shooting match, there will be the re-erection of the iron/Bamboo curtain, such that trade between those seen as enemies will drop to a trickle.
So China will just reduce buying coal and iron from us and we will stop importing stuff. The Bunnings model will collapse, but so will our income. I assume that Chinese students will go to NZ or Europe or even South America rather than Australia. The TPP may help a little to mitigate the problems for us but not sure they will be able to replace the huge China trade. after all there are South Americans in the TPP who are exporters not importers of raw materials. Japan is in an odd position.
Vote1julia@7:02am
According to at least one commentator preferring ALP above Phelps is politically stupid because Phelps has more chance of beating Libs than ALP in Wentworth. Also, it will most probably lead to Libs winning the seat.
Jackol
I disagree. Upper Houses provide review and can block legislation.
Staggered terms just make forming government more difficult. No review and forcing a government to rethink its way.
See Abbott not getting his economic agenda through. We would now be the US without our Senate to block him. Staggered terms would do nothing to stop a government with a majority in a House.
guytaur @ #486 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 9:59 am
The upper house in Queensland was abolished by a radical pre WW2 Labor government to prevent the squatocracy ever again frustrating the directly expressed will of the people.
The gerrymander was instituted by Labor later on to give it an advantage due to the large number of unionised rural workers. It was later refined and extended by the Country Party when they got into power after the Labor split in the 1950s.
After the Fitzgerald enquiry there were a range of reforms introduced which strengthened the committee system and introduced a corruption watchdog which is set up so the opposition has a big say in how it is run.
The current abortion proposal has been through an exhaustive committee process and is likely to pass, as long as the LNP gives their members a conscience vote (and perhaps even if they don’t).
Bacause of this process it will be very politically difficult to reverse as all legitimate concerns have been taken into account, leaving only the hardest of the hard core anti-abortion people unsatisfied.
Before making sweeping statements about how horrible the system is in Queensland and saying it would be incomparably better if X was imported from elsewhere, it would be nice if people actually checked out the reality.
Yes, Guytaur, this means you.
DTT
The TPP is about limiting the rise of China and thus limiting its ability to challenge the US as a military power.
My point is that trade is irrelevant in a hot war as a hot war is short term.
Cold war TPP influence on trade is important. Eventually the US will rejoin. Now however its going to be on Canada’s and New Zealand’s terms not that of the US Military Industrial Complex.
So I see that as better for world peace. Calms the waters not amplifies the divisions.
guytaur:
I guess we’ll have to beg to differ on the instant issue. But thanks for your contribution.
ajm
I was not denying the reality that Labor abolished the Upper House. I was talking about why Queensland has a redneck reputation.
I put it down to the Joh era. Made possible by Gerrymander put into place.. Yes that Gerrymander was by Labor but Joh embraced it full heartedly and Queensland suffered as a result.
ajm
I was not denying the reality that Labor abolished the Upper House. I was talking about why Queensland has a redneck reputation.
I put it down to the Joh era. Made possible by Gerrymander put into place.. Yes that Gerrymander was by Labor but Joh embraced it full heartedly and Queensland suffered as a result.
Scrott will be pretty ‘meh’ re Paris because………..
.
.
Australian neo-Pentecostal perspectives on anthropogenic climate change
………The key to understanding what Australian neo-Pentecostal churches believe when it comes to climate change lies in these wider views on creation care. God may have appointed humans for stewardship over living things, but what exactly care for God’s creation entails is up to interpretation. Several Australian neo-Pentecostal leaders have links to mining companies, energy providers, and property developers. Lucas Jacometti, Pastor of the C3 Church in Hobart, says in a sermon on climate change scepticism:
“Only Jesus has the power to shift the climate.”
In 2016, the Tasmanian newspaper The Mercury reported that Jacometti, in partnership with oil prospector Malcolm Bendall, wants to develop the Tasmanian central highlands into an oil reserve.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,For Jacometti, natural resources are there for humans, as the stewards of creation, to use as they see fit because in his justification Jesus is the one who will take care of the climate.
https://sciencereligionspectrum.org/blog-posts/australian-neo-pentecostal-perspectives-on-anthropogenic-climate-change/
‘a r says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 11:17 am
Boerwar @ #187 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 10:03 am
Are verbal lynch mobs the enemies of democracy?
Nope. Lying degenerates like Trump, Kavanaugh, Sanders, Conway, and the rest fully deserve their verbal lynchings.
Are verbal echo chambers the enemies of democracy?
To the extent that they incubate bullshit conspiracy theories, yes.
Is it time to burn some books, somewhere/
Break some glass?
No. But neither is it time to start defending, accepting, respecting, or falling in line behind stupidity just because there happens to be a lot of it going around.’
Change a few names and this post could have been posted by a partisan on either side.
I don’t think I have any answers here but I am starting to wonder whether the Left is asking itself the right questions rather than asking itself the Right questions.
“My feeling is that although we will not have a hot war ie shooting match, there will be the re-erection of the iron/Bamboo curtain, such that trade between those seen as enemies will drop to a trickle.”
Surely we must be on the Chinese side of the curtin, we can’t afford to go down with the US, that is just insane self punishment.
Even if the Libs lose Wentworth, I can’t see a real split developing – as happened in the Labor Party in the 50’s – as much as I would welcome one. One thing is for sure they will from now on struggle with the strongly divergent forces within their party, and as long as that conflict is visible & obvious to the voting public I will be able to live with that.
Aunt Mavis.
Queensland is not the most progressive state.
Like the US extreme of winner takes all. Bad move.
First thing is make governments listen to the people they represent not vested interests.
We should have more not less checks and balances. No system is perfect but I think our system has shown that upper houses work better than single houses do.
So yes we will have to continue to disagree. Tasmania had its law blocked for ages due to a very conservative upper house on decriminalising homosexuality. However I think thats better than letting winner takes all being the culture appalling as that conservatism dominating that House is.
“Change a few names and this post could have been posted by a partisan on either side.”
This just isn’t true. You couldn’t do it, and if you did the result would be hilarious, so go ahead do it.
It is drawing an equivalence where there is none. It is years of lazy stupid and dishonest ‘pox on both houses’ non-analysis finding fertile ground.
Jesus said nothing about Global Warming.
Totally schtumm on HIS creation being cooked.
Being the Son of God, and God, and the Son of Man (well, the Son of a Woman, assuming that Joeseph’s DNA did not get a look in) Jesus would have known perfectly well that greenhouse gases can cook the Planet.
But did he put in an 11th Commandment, ‘Thou Shalt not Cook the Planet’?
No!
Did he alter the laws of thermodynamics to stop it from happening?
No!
It stands to reason that, not only did he knew what was coming, he wanted it to happen because four degrees plus is the Portal to the Singularity.
ajm:
[‘Yes, Guytaur, this means you.’]
That’s a little hard; guytaur simply expressing his opinion.
I am though in agreement with the overall thrust of your argument.
Hey guys, you may not have noticed, but that article in BK’s links about Sydney Town Hall station is actually quite significant.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/town-hall-station-overcrowding-to-force-staff-to-slow-access-at-peak-20180921-p5056j.html
There is a bigger picture here that I want to explain carefully.
First of all, Town Hall station has limited space on its platforms. Remember when it was designed, it was designed for a city of about 2 million people and its done a good job. But its not designed for the volumes of people using it now.
Secondly, the single biggest factor that causes congestion on Town Hall’s platforms is the fact that every train goes somewhere different or has different stops. This means that people will often be standing on the platforms waiting for the next train, or even the one after. Instead of each train clearing the platform, having people waiting for the train after further adds to congestion.
This is rather unusual in the world that a major CBD station has to serve trains with constantly changing stopping patterns. The norm is that each platform sees trains that go to the exactly the seam stations every time. And this effect – not having every train clear the platform – is choking Town Hall.
So what’s really wrong? Well, its Sydney’s complex branched and looped train network. Its also having train lines that are far too long relative to the speed of the trains, forcing timetablers to run a multitude of stopping patterns to try to please everyone (and as a result running a crap, slow network).
If we are going to have a modern, efficient train network, we need to further disconnect branches and not force multiple logical sectors onto the same physical tracks (and platforms).
The most obvious example of this is the Bankstown line. Trains from here run onto the city circle, and thus share platforms at Town Hall. This means that other trains that run towards the inner west or the airport must be scheduled around the Bankstown trains. Causing not only more congestion at Town Hall but also causing these other timetables to be irregular and less predictable. One of the worst things that can happen in a busy rail network is uneven times between trains. That’s also part of why Town Hall is suffering.
Sydney Metro offers to give the Bankstown line its own tracks and platforms in the CBD, thus simplifying operation at Town Hall. This will help congestion. Yet we have opposition to this process from the usual suspects (this includes certain retirees from ShittyRail).
Of course it isn’t just the Bankstown line. The entire network needs de-convolution. For example we have the inner west and south line (T2) where some trains go to Parramatta and some trains go to Leppington. Now because T5 (Leppington to Schofield) shares tracks with T2 up to Merrylands we have a timetable that is deliberately padded which means it takes 25 minutes to get from Liverpool to Parramatta, when it should take more like 17 minutes.
In any case, because we have long distance trains mixing with local trains on T2, we end up with complex timetable that gives us hour long commutes from Leppington and poor frequency service in the inner west. The fault here lies with the branching of the network itself.
The solution is to give T5 an exclusive pair of tracks. Run all trains from Leppington through Parramatta and out to Blacktown/Schofields/Richmond. This forces a change of trains at Parramatta. But! In so doing it speeds up the line north of Liverpool and with a fast train from Parramatta to the CBD, this means a lot faster trips from the south. Its made even faster if there is a train from Leppington to Western Sydney Airport and then a fast train from there to Parramatta and the CBD.
Now go back to Town Hall. What you see is a simple all stops train on T2 through the inner west to Parramatta and St Marys. Those that join these trains at Town Hall know exactly where their train will go (they all do exactly the same thing). The function of a fast train to Parramatta is taken over by a new, fast rail line. So T2 can provide a “turn up and go” service to the inner west. Now giving the inner west a high frequency service at every station means you can re-route local bus services to inner west stations, rather than forcing them down Parramatta Road. End result is shorter journeys.
Now I have more to say on this subject, but the point is we are now at capacity as far as Town Hall goes. We need to not just build Metro West, but also a separate fast rail line from the CBD to Parramatta to the west. And we need to take the existing surface network and continue to simplify it. Make trains more frequent, more predictable, more usable. The hangers on that don’t want things to change are not doing us a favour.
poroti @ #651 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 11:11 am
The role of a steward in Biblical times was to preserve and enhance the resources given into their care, not to use them up on their own pleasure. If what you say above is an accurate representation of what Pentecostalists believe, it is profoundly un-Biblical
Don’t underestimate the feelings of locals about the SOH. It’s a precious icon, sacred almost to some, and its ours. The Eighth Wonder.
Jones’ treatment of Herron was vile, and while as has been said he would likely have done same to a man, I suspect Herron to her credit was being mature and womanly in withholding return fire. That Gladys defended Jones and not Herron, nor the status of the building, is a bad look for someone already on the nose. Bad timing Gladys, not that timing was ever her strong point. Died in wool Libs, for whom Turnbull was a Labor plant, have told me that they can’t vote for her.
I for one approach it with reverence. It is a place of joining, for higher purpose, and the spiritual dimension of that ought not be overlooked or belittled. It is as far from horse racing and gambling as can be.
And a bloody lot of people from Wentworth climb the Aztec steps to enter the temple.
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/–GcDjn_Ddzo/W7qwiJmN2DI/AAAAAAAAGs0/QNPIW4Uesygc3icgEmNjwimE7L9E0X_YACLcBGAs/s1600/fullsizeoutput_330d.jpeg
Observer
Thank you for the observation (!) on dividend imputation.
I have been educated to believe that diversity is the basis for sound investment and thought all along that anyone relying heavily on imputation credits as a retirement strategy was badly advised.
Hope they didn’t pay too much for the advice.
Don’t get me wrong I’m not saying out of ANZUS, but on trade surely Australia has to try and align with a European / Chinese Asia pac trade world with the US trying to destroy the rules of global trade that were largely written to benefit it.
Also all this stuff about Chinese technological espionage tells me two things:
– the Chinese are competing with the US in this space and the US is misusing national security to give their companies a leg up
– the Chinese are better at it than us, we would just quietly install countermeasures and laugh at them, except we can’t we don’t have the skills or technology.
WWP
‘You couldn’t do it, and if you did the result would be hilarious, so go ahead do it.’
Easy, peasey. You are confusing being rational with what comes from peoples’ lips.
‘ Are verbal lynch mobs the enemies of democracy?’
Yes. Lying degenerates like the Democrats and their fact-free lying women, and the rest, fully deserve their verbal lynchings. #metoo makes up hundreds of thousands of fake accusations without the accused having any sort of process to defend themselves.
‘Are verbal echo chambers the enemies of democracy?’
To the extent that they incubate bullshit conspiracy theories by the lying Progressives, yes. If you want a rational discussion about policies that generate jobs and prosperity for all Americans you don’t need an echo chamber.’
Both sides are saying more or less the same things about the other side using more or less the same language. Both sides are fomenting rage and righteous anger.
Is this working for women? Is this working for workers? Is this working for Progressives? Is this working for Afro-Americans?
My question is a sort of meta question about tactics and strategies. If we are too busy being outraged, as desired by the Right, then we are not going to spend a whole lot of time and energy and thought figuring out whether we are dudding ourselves.
Would have been fun to be a fly on the wall as these blokes edged apart.
From the SMH
[Latham has since changed his legal team, including Queensland-based silk Tony Morris, QC. Justice Wigney said on Monday the defence was “now, sensibly, a three-page document”.
The former Labor leader, who was banned from the party for life last year after his brief flirtation with the Liberal Democrats, was represented on Monday by Sydney barrister Clarissa Amato, a defamation expert, who will be joined by a leader in the field, Peter Gray, SC, at the trial.]
PCC
Your post, which I found to be enlightening, reminded me of a thriller movie in which the solution to the plot could be found in deconstructing the model train timetables.
Unfortunately, I cannot remember the Movie title.
Don’t forget the other iconic tourist attraction being destroyed by fascists:
Guardian Australia
Verified account @GuardianAus
9s9 seconds ago
Great Barrier Reef faces dire threat with 2C global warming, UN report says https://trib.al/d4cJYpA #IPCC #SR15 #globalwarming #climatechange
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/great-barrier-reef-faces-dire-threat-with-2c-global-warming-un-report-says?CMP=soc_568
ajm
The Pentecostals would have a number of “un-biblical’ beliefs, especially in the ‘jesus section’ of the bible. Not that they would consider it to be the case.
guytaur:
[‘Tasmania had its law blocked for ages due to a very conservative upper house on decriminalising homosexuality.’]
That sort of confirms my argument. But the history of Tassie is somewhat different – if you get my drift.
In my days in the RAN we had an expression, “Any port in a storm”.
“Only Jesus has the power to shift the climate.””
It is an obvious misuse of religion as old as religions themselves to say ‘if it were supposed to be different the god/s would make it so’ when trying to maintain political or economic power, and to whip people in a frenzy to change things to your advantage. No big surprise.
A lot of the commentary thus far on preferencing in the Wentworth by-election has focused on the strategic consequences of each various preference combination, in terms of which is most/least likely to see the Liberal Party of Australia lose this seat for the first time since its inception in 1944. This is understandable and highly appropriate on a psephological site such as this.
However, such a strong focus risks losing sight of the forest for the trees. The Morrison Government will not lose a no confidence motion on the floor of the House, no matter which of Sharma, Murray and Phelps wins.
The Government will find it much harder to pass legislation if Murray or Phelps wins – especially Murray, in the case of economic/financial/taxation legislation. So, voters who want the government to find it easier to pass all its legislation should hope Sharma wins; those who want the government to find it harder to pass its social/cultural legislation but still find it easier to pass its economic legislation should hope Phelps wins; while those who want a better brake to be put on this government’s legislation of all types should hope Murray wins.
But, people should not be staking the very survival of the Morrison government in the immediate term on which of Sharma, Murray or Phelps wins. It just isn’t.
Son out of the theatre, awake and smiling. 🙂
‘WeWantPaul says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 11:39 am
The greens Phelps stuff would make sense if Phelps hadn’t preferenced Lib, split ticket, or preference Lab and she deserves greens preferences, the greens can’t preference someone who has given the libs an endorsement like Phelps did.
It is entirely Phelps fault. It was obvious and predictable.’
Oh, yeah! It is entirely Phelps fault that the Greens are helping the Liberals to secure victory in Wentworth. Yet another cracker from the ‘Hear no evils, see no evils, say no evils’.
C@t
Good news!
The conflation of Jesus with the Old Book is antithetical, though convenient when it comes to believers’ business interests, which takes us back to … antithetical.
Boerwar
While the Kavanagh Carnival was in full swing anther US$3,000,000,000,000 in tax cuts for the rich was passed. Passed with virtually no attention. I reckon this will cause far more harm to the average American’s life than a Kavanagh appointment.
Boerwar says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 12:27 pm
“Lying degenerates like the Democrats and their fact-free lying women…”
————————————-
Wow! Someone sure has been guzzling the Fox News Kool Aid all these years since they donned the black hats over HRC as SoS.
WWP+Itza
For a numb er of those churches and how they decide to interpret the bible this JK Galbraith quote comes to mind.
C@tmomma @ #284 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 12:37 pm
Someone looked after him; I wonder who. 😉
Guytaur
Yes the TPP was designed to stop the rise of China, but I am not quite sure how that prevents or changes the hot war balance, since it is the relative balance between the US and China that matters.
I suspect that the tariffs will be more relevant than the TPP.
I am surprised that you think a war will be “short term”. 4-6 years as a minimum or potentially 17 as in Afghanistan. Also there is the implicit assumption that our side will win.
Whatever way you look at it australia loses.
if there is a hot war between china ans Australia , let us assume the likely option for us to remain US allies. Then the following will play out:
All trade from Australia to China will cease also there might be some black market and rerouted stuff getting through. Same for imports.
If the USA wins then it will do so my a massive campaign of bombing China so that its manufacturing capacity is destroyed. this will mean that the markets for iron and steel will NOT recover for at least 20 years. Ditto markets for meant, milk etc.
If the issue is a stalemate, China will have an economic downturn but will in any case source raw materials from places other than US allies wherever possible. We might get back our markets after 10 years or so.
If China WINS then as US allies we can expect retribution, although possibly being in a genial mood, we may be able to pull the forelock sufficiently to recover in 5 years, although I imagine we will lose effective control over a lot of land areas.
None of these outcomes is good for Australia
C@tmomma says: Monday, October 8, 2018 at 12:37 pm
Son out of the theatre, awake and smiling
*****************************************
Terrific news for Mum and Son 🙂
This is specially for GG. Thanks BK.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/pedo-confessional-priests-lawrence-researchers-pose-a-sex-abuser-priests,11972
“For decades, Anthony Foster and his beloved Chrissie have fought for justice, not only for their two daughters who, as little girls, were repeatedly raped by a Catholic priest while attending a Catholic school, but also for the thousands of other victims/survivors of industrial strength child sex abuse, perpetrated by the church’s crack SAS (Sexual Abuse Squad) army of career paedophiles…
Disarmingly and brutally honest about the nature of crimes against their own and other children, they made one likewise determined not to euphemise the facts or euthanise the truth.
This couple lived with the anguish of knowing that the serial sex offender Father Kevin O’Donnell repeatedly raped their daughters, Emma and Katie at Oakleigh’s Sacred Heart Primary School.
Emma was later to suicide from an overdose when she was 26 years old, found dead on her bedroom floor clutching the teddy bear her parents had given her when she was a little baby.
Like her big sister, Katie had also spiralled out of control and, after drinking heavily, she walked into a car travelling at high speed and is now permanently impaired — both mentally and physically….”
That utter lowlife bastard, George Pell, told them “I will fight you every inch of the way”.
gr8 C@t 🙂
C@tmomma @ #284 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 11:37 am
That’s always a good start! Great news.
Indeed.
But the analysis of Andrew_Earlwood earlier is the most insightful re: longer term significance of this by-election:
Murray winning for the ALP would certainly be a shock to the Libs in the here-and-now, but in all likelihood the seat would simply revert back to the Libs in short order, probably in May, so the practical significance would be zip.
Phelps winning could well be a medium/long term proposition – a Ted Mack kind of figure that the more blue ribbon parts of the NSW electorate seem fine to keep around once they establish themselves. And no, I don’t think Phelps is at all equal to Mack in terms of principle or integrity, but I am willing to believe there is the possibility she can attract a similar support base in Wentworth.
A Murray win would be entertaining for the immediate fireworks in the Libs; a Phelps win could be much more significant down the track.
“Oh, yeah! It is entirely Phelps fault that the Greens are helping the Liberals to secure victory in Wentworth. Yet another cracker from the ‘Hear no evils, see no evils, say no evils’.”
Phelps chose to help the liberals win with preferences, everything after that is pretty stupid noise.
The pesky UN is at it again, not trusting Jesus or his Father. Actually, isn’t the Holy Spirit meant to be God’s Earth Agent? HS seems to be getting off lightly, in all this.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-10-08/ipcc-climate-change-report/10348720
‘poroti says:
Monday, October 8, 2018 at 12:40 pm
Boerwar
While the Kavanagh Carnival was in full swing anther US$3,000,000,000,000 in tax cuts for the rich was passed. Passed with virtually no attention. I reckon this will cause far more harm to the average American’s life than a Kavanagh appointment.’
Exactemundo. Don’t get angry. Don’t get even. Get in front.