This fortnight’s Newspoll result is 54-46 in favour of Labor, after the Scott Morrison era began with successive results of 56-44. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (up two), Labor 39% (down three), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). Movement also to the Coalition’s advantage on personal rating: Scott Morrison is up three on approval to 44% and steady on disapproval at 39%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 32% and up three to 54%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-36 to 45-32.
UPDATE: Further findings from the poll record 24% of respondents saying Scott Morrison has made them more likely to vote Coalition, 31% less likely and 36% no influence; and 46% nominating Morrison as the more “authentic” of the two leaders, compared with 31% for Shorten. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1675.
Henry @ #98 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:33 pm
With or without needles?
Lest we forget:
The religious freedom report. (Should be a unifying experience.)
The DPP re Senator Cash.
Haynes report on the banks.
SA’s RC Murray Darling.
MYEFO – the ballooning National debt
A few gems to the media via Malcolm & Roman
Continuation of Dutton’s S44 issues
Wentworth by election
etc etc
So much to look forward to… and so little time!
Varanda Manstone gives a critique of Bill Shorten, quick tell someone who gives a sh@t.
Anyway keep underestimating Shorten all you like, it has done wonders for him in actual real polls.
So, nath drags out an anti-Shorten piece of bs by Veranda Fatstone to fuel his KillBill animus, from July 2017!?!
Says it all. And not about Bill Shorten.
Newspoll May be showing hard numbers now not soft ones.
Look at the NSW statepoll. 50/50
Thats also not a good sign for the LNP Federally.
The LNP are going backwards and the division is hitting hard in NSW.
[… I actually do think it may well be time Labor to consider changing leaders.’]
Wrong, Ashe, Shorten might be a plodder but he represents stability, determination. He’ll never set the world on fire, but that’s what I think is his main strength.
Scummo and Co must be praying for Labor to keep Shorten. He has won all the polls for a long time so imaging the result if someone with the charm of Turnbull or Scummo were at the helm of the ALP! Heaven forbid a 60 – 40 would be a near certainty.
Wayne, keep agitating.
54-46 and we’re talking ALP leadership???
There aren’t enough question marks.
Thanks, gecko. I had forgotten about Ms Cash. I bet Scummo wishes he could declare the court case she is involved in, ‘Behind Closed Doors Matters’. 🙂
Question @ #109 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:41 pm
I did ask who would lead the Liberals after the election, but nobody was interested in talking about that.
Question @ #108 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 10:41 pm
Well, it’s just the usual suspects. And Asha Leu appears to have had a brain fade. 🙂
Assuming that the next election is held on May 18, Morrison will hopefully only be Prime Minister for 9 months. Enough time to make a baby but hopefully too short to do too much damage. He would be 25/30 in terms of time in office, between George Reid (10 and a bit months in 1904-05) and Chris Watson (just under 4 months in 1904 – Reid’s predecessor. Quick turnover of PM’s is nothing new).
Excluding caretakers (Forde, McEwen, Page), it’s 25/27.
In actual elections 53% TPP is landslide.
As for the Liberal leadership, put me down for Christian Porter if grimace can’t dislodge him. Or ‘Genial’ Josh Frydenburg if he does. 🙂
The Amanda Vanstan piece reminds me of a bit of goss passed on to me back in 1982 by a liberal voter to do with Bob Hawke. To wtte ‘you know his Ockker speech is just a put on. I’m reliably informed that is really speaks with a plum in his mouth!’ Fair dinkum! Amanda should really give us a break.
Morrison has difficulty making babies, so he can’t pull that one out of the hat.
Robert Ball @ #61 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 10:04 pm
Well it can’t be the Lib’s policies that are unpopular – they don’t have any…
Good points C@t & Fess,
Yes, thinking of what the L-NP will throw up for leader after they get tossed out really does underline the trouble they’re in.
C@tmomma
nath drags out an anti-Shorten piece of bs by Veranda Fatstone
Morrison has difficulty making babies, so he can’t pull that one out of the hat.
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C@t you scare me. If I was your son in law I would definitely shit myself every time I came around!
If Scomo is behind by this margin when the election campaign starts,he will never recover.The last election had an 8 week campaign and the polls hardly changed in the 8 weeks leading up to the day one way or the other.
RomanQ is still around to give Morrison heartburn as well:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/22/we-stopped-these-roman-quaedvlieg-says-scott-morrison-gave-him-boat-trophy?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I think Morrison can hold on after a loss, as I don’t think he’d be necessarily blamed for the loss and most would probably see leadership after a decent-sized loss to be a poison chalice. No one who considers themselves a shot would want it first-up.
“In actual elections 53% TPP is landslide.”
And Labor had only achieved that once since WW2 (Hawke 1983).
My prediction is that Labor’s 2PP in the May 2019 election will be 2 less than what the polls are saying in a month’s time.
C@tmomma:
Agree with you on this. Though, to me, it sounds like he speaks while he is chewing on a steak.
Though maybe middle bogan ‘Straya could relate to that?
Billy McMahon was PM for 1 year, 8 months & 25 days.
Billy McMahon.
What odds Scummo makes it to 19 April 2020????
C@t you scare me. If I was your son in law I would definitely shit myself every time I came around!
Good. 🙂
Oh, and I have scared a couple of bikies off from having a go at my late husband. 😉
If the election is in May,then Scumo will have to be at least 50-50 by the middle of March to stand a chance of winning.
The Coalition’s primary vote is going to be lower than 36% come the election, I am predicting it is going to be in the low 30’s.
If Julie Bishop gets re-elected I think she will be the first LOTO.
The old Hospital Pass. Probably why Bishop is talking of instilling Rudd style rules. Her best hope of lasting.
Steve,
I’m thinking the result will be about 53 🙂
What will come out of left field this week.
I think the PM will capture the unemployed vote with this masterpiece. Everyone who has applied for the required number of jobs and jumped through the hoops for the last three months and has not received any reply from any employer will now be treated differently.
The obligation to seek employment will only need to happen for one month each year. No contact with Centrelink required.
Free travel on buses, ferries and trains particularly to tourist destinations. A 10% benefit increase to boost the economy if drought declared regions are visited. Must eat strawberries regularly.
What will all this cost you ask? I’m the leader of the Muppets so who cares.
Mr Newbie @ #123 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 10:50 pm
Chewing on a steak. Yes, definitely like he has something in his mouth. But I think Middle Australia likes a straight talker they can understand. Which is why Morrison has gotten his bounce, I reckon.
Though I also reckon they don’t like the policies of his government, so they mark them down while marking him up.
I don’t think the Abbottobods would welcome Porter as leader, and Frydenberg will be tarred with the Morrison loss brush. It’s hard to think who would lead the rabble when they are consigned to opposition finally.
Peter Costello would have to be thinking: If I didn’t throw a tantrum after 2007 and leave I could have won in 2010. I could have been PM now for 8 years.
As Paul Keating said to Costello in 1995: ‘you’re so macho, twice you’ve had the chance to be Opposition Leader. The first time you rang your mate sitting next to you and offered it to him (Downer). This time, you sat overseas while John got it from Hawkes Nest.(Howard’s holiday home). When I told the Caucus last year that you were a low altitude flyer, I was right wasn’t I?’
Costello. Three chances to be PM. Piked it every time.
nath:
[‘C@t you scare me. If I was your son in law I would definitely shit myself every time I came around!’]
I know you’re a young man, but that’s a foolish comment.
Confessions @ #131 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 10:56 pm
The vote for Frydenburg as Deputy Leader was pretty solid, on the other hand. Though I imagine ‘Dutts’ and Abbott might have something to say about the position of LOTO.
You gotta laugh … really … the msm town-criers screech that Shorten is doomed because of PPM stats, when we’ve been told over and over those stats rarely have meaning for the opp leader and still people here wet their proverbial pants.
Aunt Mavis @ #133 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 10:57 pm
Don’t worry, I took it with a big grain of salt. 🙂
“Shorten’s approval/disapproval numbers are awful.”
With a TPP like this, that doesn’t matter. 🙂
Aunt Mavis
says:
Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 10:57 pm
nath:
[‘C@t you scare me. If I was your son in law I would definitely shit myself every time I came around!’]
I know you’re a young man, but that’s a foolish comment.
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sorry Mavis, don’t know what you mean. I was talking about C@t being fierce and likely to scare sons in laws. Not sure whats wrong with that.
It is a bit depressing to me to observe the reactions of virtually all contributors to the small movements between Newspolls which are, over the last three, well within expected fluctuations due to sampling variability. Considering that Newspoll round to the nearest 1%, the difference between 55% and 54% could be 0.6% (or less). We are all being just a little silly, carrying on like this, as though we can tell whether there has been any ”movement’.
Costello’s hammock was a small mercy. LOTO too much like hard work.
Yabba
Thats why the election mountain climb looks like it got that little bit shorter.
The polls havn’t moved much except for that peak for Mr Turnbull.
https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/bill-shorten-man-of-the-people-give-me-a-break-20170728-gxkpy7.html
So what brand of pointless git nasty pills has Vanstone OD’d on??
For those who have an interest.
Bishop saw Murdoch late last week. ( Yes he is still in Australia!)
Morrison knows and is NOT impressed with her. She has been unabashedly trailing her coat to the Backbench for the last two weeks. Offering to raise cash and help their campaigns.
Morrison and Photios want another go at Abbott and Morrison called the WA Branch about Bishop on Friday.
The WA Branch is standing by her to Morrison’s chagrin.
More to come as info comes in.
“54-46 and we’re talking ALP leadership???”
Albo must have Made a Speech. 🙂
Darn:
I disagree. People are fed up with the merry-go-round of Prime Ministers.
I can almost guarantee you that most people wouldn’t give a shit about an Opposition Leader being knifed, particularly one they never particularly liked much in the first place. The only ones who would care are partisans like us who’d probably vote (or preference) Labor even if Eddie Obead was leader.
Leadership changes happen all the time in opposition. Generally it tends to improves the party’s electoral chances, rather than harming it. As long of the new leader is decent and the party rallies behind them, noone really gives cares how they got the job
Don’t get me wrong, it would be madness to replace Shorten right now. Not only is the party on the verge of a whopping landslide victory under his leadership, but the Coalition is also still suffering the damage from their own recent coup, which would be neutralized if Labor were to do the same. To be concerned about the Coalition “recovering” from a devastating loss to a slightly less devastating loss is ridiculous.
But if things were to become genuinely competitive again (I’m talking a decent, sustained run of 48s or 49s for the Coalition, or better), after everything that has happened, I would personally start getting pretty worried. That would be a sign that the public’s distaste for the Coalition is waning once more, and that they are actually prepared to give them anther term in office despite all they’ve done.
In that situation, I think Labor should at least seriously consider the prospect of changing leaders, preferable without much bloodshed. Yes, many in the news media would try to blow it up as much as humanly possible, but as long as it happened quickly, the party rallied behind the new leader, and Shorten didn’t become a wrecker (which seems unlikely, IMO), I think any negative reaction to the change would pass pretty quickly. Most people probably wouldn’t even realize it had happened until the new opposition leader started getting more exposure come election time. Quite a few likely wouldn’t even know what an opposition leader even was, let alone be bothered by an apparent revolving door of them.
Worst. Honeymoon. Ever.
Immaca, that Vanstone article was part of Kill-Bill v121.603.20144d from over a year ago.
On the Liberal leadership once they’re in opposition… God knows, really. Frydenburg, Pyne, Bishop, or Abbott seem to be most likely contenders. Porter and especially Dutton are going to have a lot of trouble holding their seats, and I think the chances of Morrison being kept on as opposition leader after leading the government to what’s looking to be a pretty severe loss are about the same as they are of Morrison growing wings.