Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Better numbers for the Coalition in the third Newspoll of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, but Labor is still well in the clear on voting intention.

This fortnight’s Newspoll result is 54-46 in favour of Labor, after the Scott Morrison era began with successive results of 56-44. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (up two), Labor 39% (down three), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). Movement also to the Coalition’s advantage on personal rating: Scott Morrison is up three on approval to 44% and steady on disapproval at 39%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 32% and up three to 54%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-36 to 45-32.

UPDATE: Further findings from the poll record 24% of respondents saying Scott Morrison has made them more likely to vote Coalition, 31% less likely and 36% no influence; and 46% nominating Morrison as the more “authentic” of the two leaders, compared with 31% for Shorten. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1675.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

993 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. [GhostWhoVotes@GhostWhoVotes
    2m2 minutes ago
    #Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (+2) ALP 39 (-3) GRN 10 (0) ON 6 (0) #auspol]

  2. 54 is still really good and 46 is still really bad.
    If i were the libs i’d be holding my blanket chanting “the trend is my friend”.

    I think 53 will be a hard limit for Scomo an Co.

  3. “Still bad news for the Libs….54-46 TPP to the ALP is a hiding for Morrison.”

    What d’ya mean? I can just see tomorrow’s headline in the Australian: “Coalition Surges Ahead”. And if the Preferred Prime Minister favours Morrison, they’ll go with that.

  4. So Morrison has formally become the incumbent in the minds of voters, but clearly it doesn’t matter when it comes to the policies they want to actually vote for.

  5. You have to wonder what Morrison is going to do for attention now that the air has gone out of the Strawberry tyres. Put a piece of Lego up his nose?

  6. “watching Phelps being interviewed by Pat Karvelas, wearing a leather jacket…at least leather shoulder pads.”

    Malcolm didn’t need it any more.

  7. I’m surprised, thinking motor-mouth Morrison would get a bit of bounce, but which wouldn’t last. Maybe ther’re now of the view that they should’ve gone with Bishop?

  8. Can see this being what msm runs with.

    3m3 minutes ago
    #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 44 (+3) Disapprove 39 (0) #auspol

    2m2 minutes ago
    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 32 (-5) Disapprove 54 (+3) #auspol

  9. Oz headline:

    Morrison lifts Coalition in sign of recovery

    Coalition’s primary vote rises in the first signs of an electoral recovery for the government since 10 year low in the days after leadership spill.

  10. Let’s not forget: someone called “median” also won the Newspoll prediction. Well done Bludgers! Our ‘typical’ prediction this fortnight was spot on.

  11. phelps sounds as if she has cherry picked the better policies of Labor, Greens and even Liberals. the Libs may need that $1m splash to get over the line, plaster the electorate with corflutes, round up every backpacker in Bondi and give them a blue t shirt, $30 bucks an hour and some talking points…..

  12. If Albo does take over will all the ‘Albo making a speech’ poster suddenly rally round the leader like its the Soviet Union and Stalin just died?

  13. Newspoll always had the biggest margin of 12 points whereas essential never got that high.Always a chance Libs would return to the fold

  14. Lol, Shorten will lead the party to the election. Thinking anything else will happen is fool’s gold.

    The ALP is leading 54-46 and people questioning the viability of their leader. Give me a break.

  15. Michael says:
    Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 9:42 pm
    Let’s not forget: someone called “median” also won the Newspoll prediction. Well done Bludgers! Our ‘typical’ prediction this fortnight was spot on.

    Wisdom of the crowd.

  16. William, you commented earlier that Newspoll looks like a rolling average??

    Is the implication that the current 2PP figure may be better for the Coalition that it appears because the TPP figure is being influenced at the moment by the last couple of REALLY abysmal polls they had??

  17. Seriously?

    Seeing as ScuMo has been receiving blanket coverage for weeks, telling how he loves the footy, is a family man, has a mortgage just like we do, is fixing the drought, aborigines, strawberries, private schools, female representation, trade deals with Indonesia, is straight shootin’, straight talkin’, dead set conviction politician, loyal to Turnbull, loyal to Abbott, loyal to Jesus, and we’re reminded he’s “The Prime Minister” every two and a half minutes, PLUS he can cook a curry to die for, and (when he’s not being ignored altogether) the best Bill Shorten can come up with is some twaddle regarding superannuation, which has been trumped by Berry Force anyway, is it any bloody wonder that Morrison has lurched ahead in PPM?

  18. PVO comments on his mates at the Holt St Bowling Club.. tweets this

    The same people who said Turnbull’s four consecutive mid term 49-51 per cent results were are disaster are now calling this 46-54 result a triumph… classic

    Edited: as per PVO

  19. Given all the positive reporting of Borrison as an “action man” and “one of us from the suburbs” who therefore knows the concerns of the “average” Australian, I would view this result as a disaster for the Tory Party

    And Shorten and Labor have not moved yet to attack the contradictions of Borrison and the impact of those contradictions on Australians

    A few appearances by the Leader and the Deputy Leader with the subject matter being what it was

    Interesting also that the total focus of media is on Borrison – with only Frydenberg as support and where Frydenberg’s media work is akin to a wet piece of cardboard

  20. Good evening all,

    Good result for labor. Expected results for PPM and satisfaction ratings given full on Morrison last week. How much petroleum in his tank to keel him going with crisis after crisis ? He has done drought, aged care RC and strawberries. What is next ?

    Julie Bishop might take up a bit of media space this week as well as the ongoing gender pay difference debate. The two roll into a nice package actually.

    Labor will also have education funding to roll with as well as further fallout from the second 4C instalment on aged care.


  21. Or are some of those being polled “voting” for stability (e.g. don’t drop and break this PM) but, when the election comes, they will vote for a new govt. I won’t be surprised if the Libs go further south during the campaign.

  22. Shorten’s approval/disapproval numbers are awful. A change has to be considered. It would be much better that Shorten resigned and allowed Albo the chance to become leader with clean hands. Not that it will happen. Shorten will cling to the job like Gollum to a ring. His love of power and the opportunity for Harbor views will keep him going.

  23. Good Evening

    Congratulations to the prophets. 🙂

    More seriously congratulations to the Australian voters polled rejecting yet again the neo liberalism and let’s look after our mates of the LNP.

    I think Morrison limited the damage with his Catholic funding. Its the only substantive thing he has done. Even if it did mean reopening the education wars.

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