This fortnight’s Newspoll result is 54-46 in favour of Labor, after the Scott Morrison era began with successive results of 56-44. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (up two), Labor 39% (down three), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). Movement also to the Coalition’s advantage on personal rating: Scott Morrison is up three on approval to 44% and steady on disapproval at 39%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 32% and up three to 54%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-36 to 45-32.
UPDATE: Further findings from the poll record 24% of respondents saying Scott Morrison has made them more likely to vote Coalition, 31% less likely and 36% no influence; and 46% nominating Morrison as the more “authentic” of the two leaders, compared with 31% for Shorten. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1675.
Linda Reynolds was also on PK’s show, saying that a new rule for Liberals of 70% of party room required for a spill is under ‘active consideration’
can’t see the MonkeyPod signing up to this
Whatever spin the Oz might put on it, an 8% 2PP lead means Morrison’s cactus.
‘Morrison lifts Coalition in sign of recovery.’, the pre-coup 2PP being 51-49 – what an effing joke!
Sky News After Dark will be besides themselves.
Confessions @ #46 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 9:55 pm
😆
I can’t see the Labor party being in too much of a hurry to get the knives out just because of a “drop” to 54-46.
I’ve got to be honest, I don’t really get where this idea of Albanese being Labor great white hope comes from. He seems like a nice guy and a talented Minister, certainly, but I’ve never found him to be a particularly impressive communicator, nor does he actually strike me as being much more charismatic than Shorten is – he can be effective when talking off the cuff about the stuff that he’s passionate about, but in many of his pressers he’s actually suprisingly stilted and wooden. I think a lot of people would actually find the reality of Albo as opposition leader a disappointment compared to the image they’ve formed in their heads.
If the ALP were to replace Shorten (and I’m not saying they should at all), I think there are several rather stronger candidates than Albo.
AM
Wetting themselves as usual.
nath @ #45 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 9:54 pm
Ah yes, The Lodge.
Well known for its Harbor views.
What happens if the 2pp narrows and Shorten’s personal numbers are still this terrible or slightly worse? The coup to replace Shorten could be called Operation Cleanevent and would have to involve mass resignations from the front bench, re standard operation procedure.
Our great LNP will win the next election by a landslide and ALP will dump shorten after the election as he corrupt and Replace with Albo
“can’t possibly see how Shorten could survive as leader of the Labor Party if he’s at Jeremy Corbyn levels of popularity.”…… well Abbott had even worse ratings as Opposition Leader and won in a landslide…so can we finally put this urban myth to bed.
Keep Calm
Nath is just trying out his comedy routine:)
And Carry On.
Great result, the Liberal Backbench must be beside themselves again with worry. In their eyes the leadership change still has not improved a desperate situation.
It is now clear as crystal to them that reliance on the power of prayer for change is overrated.
Hallelujah brothers and sisters!!
Praise the Lord, and pass the ammunition!!
If you don’t think Shorten won’t move into Kirribilli House first chance he gets then you haven’t been paying attention.
Waynes only back because him and his supporters think they can still win.I thought Turnbull was the best PM ever and would rule the universe forever.One good thing about your posts is that you give good betting tips.Whatever you say we just bet on the opposite result. We can cash in everytime.
Bill Shorten has questions to answer.
There. I just did the CPG’s colllective homework for them. …
guytaur
says:
Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 10:02 pm
Keep Calm
Nath is just trying out his comedy routine:)
And Carry On.
_________________
Not on this issue. While I do love Albo for his infrastructure I would be pretty happy if Tanya took over. Although I’m a little concerned over the whole Africa s a country thing, but I assumed that was just propaganda bs.
Asha Leu
I agree. Neither Shorten nor Albo are very good communicators.
It seems the Labor Party for some time has not placed much emphasis on such skills when choosing a leader.
The Liar from the Shire must be thinking harder about that half Senate election in May, and then going full,term to November 2 2019. Murdoch will ride that baby all the way..
Newspoll – Upnorth is gloating.
Punters have made up their minds. Barring a 9-11 or Tampa style confection Morrison could “walk on water” after a Sunday Bible Bashing session and the punters wouldn’t give a toss. They have had enough.
Wentworth will hopefully be the Tories “Bass” analogy.
The PPM and Shorten satisfaction stats are no worse now than when Turnbull was only behind 49-51.
So, Morrison is way more f**ked than Turnbull if the focus concentrates on PPM and personal stats given Morrison is behind 46 -54 !
BTW, I think the only stat that counts is 2PP and how this translates into bums on seats in the HOR.
The rest is bullshit.
Cheers and a great night to all.
So, Morrison has dragged the Coalition from being dead in the water, to this:
😀
nath @ #62 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 10:05 pm
And?
I was hoping Dan Gulberry would win the sweep.
Take a bow PB, and all who predicted 54/46.
=====================
Newspoll-Poll 2018-09-23
Mean: ALP 54.4 to 45.6 LNP
Median: ALP 54 to 46 LNP
No. of Respondents: 59
=====================
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 A different Michael
54.5 / 45.5 a r
53 / 47 Akubra
54 / 46 Al Pal
54 / 46 Andrew_Earlwood
56 / 44 Asha Leu
53 / 47 Aunt Mavis
51 / 49 ausdavo
54 / 46 BK
47 / 53 Boerwar
56 / 44 briefly
54 / 46 C@tmomma
54 / 46 Confessions
54 / 46 Cud Chewer
54 / 46 d-money
99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
55 / 45 Don
53 / 47 Evan
53 / 47 Frednk
56 / 44 Fulvio Sammut
61 / 39 Gecko
55 / 45 Golly
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
52 / 48 Holden Hillbilly
53 / 47 imacca
54 / 46 j341983
54 / 46 jeffemu
53 / 47 jenauthor
52 / 48 jph
52 / 48 Kevjohnno
54 / 46 Late Riser
51 / 49 Lynchpin
54 / 46 Mari
52 / 48 Matt
55 / 45 Matt31
53 / 47 meher baba
55 / 45 Michael
52 / 48 Mundo
56 / 44 nath
53 / 47 poroti
57 / 43 Puffytmd
55 / 45 Question
54 / 46 Robert Ball
51 / 49 Sceptic
52 / 48 Simon² Katich®
50 / 50 Sprocket_
54 / 46 Socrates
55 / 45 Sohar
53 / 47 sonar
55 / 45 steve davis
53 / 47 Steve777
52 / 48 Taylormade
53 / 47 The Silver Bodgie
53 / 47 Tricot
54 / 46 Upnorth
58 / 42 Warrigal
53 / 47 Whisper
53 / 47 Work To Rule
52 / 48 Zoidlord
Sprocket
The LNP and Morrison will have no choice other than go the half Senate option. The polls tell them so.
A little historical context for this LNP “bounce”:
Newspoll TPP (ALP-LNP)
23/06/2013: 43-57 (PMJG)
30/06/2013: 49-51 (PMKR)
07/07/2013: 50-50 “
21/07/2013: 48-52 “
04/08/2013: 48-52 “
11/08/2013: 48-52 “
18/08/2013: 46-54 “
25/08/2013: 47-53 “
01/09/2013: 46-54 “
05/09/2013: 46-54 “
07/09/2013: 46.5-53.5 (election)
Kevin Rudd Mk2 saw Labor’s TPP peak in poll # 2 (50-50), then sag steadily towards an Election Day defeat 46.5 – 53.5.
If the Libs’ boosters in the media sound increasingly desperate it is because they haven’t forgotten this pattern from the last time a party switched leaders less than a year out from an election. Except now the shoe is on the other foot.
I would be surprised if the Lib TPP goes any higher than 47% from here to the election.
Nath followed by Wayne
If things do wind up tightening up to the 52-48 level or higher again (consistently, that is, not just one or two polls), despite all of the Coalition’s instability, own goals, and general poor governance, Iactually do think it may well be time Labor to consider changing leaders. While I like Shorten myself and actually can’t quite fathom why he is so unpopular, the reality is that he just isn’t very well liked – that hardly matters when Labor’s on the verge of a whopping landslide like they are at the moment, but is certainly riskier if things become competitive again.
But does it have to be Albo? I think he’d have a lot of the same “charisma” problems as Shorten, while also potentially being more prone to tactical errors thanks to generally being a bit more emotive and hot-headed in his style (and there have been a few occasions in the past where I think he’s shown rather poor judgement), and his status of a bit of tribal warrior could could work against him too, even if it does make him a hero to many in the base.
If there must be a change in leader, someone like Pliberaek or Bowen or Dreyfus would be much more effective, in my view.
Nath
With comments like that you obviously know about as much as Rex about politics, which isn’t very much. No doubt he’ll be by very soon parroting the same kind of rubbish.
C@tmomma @ #69 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 10:10 pm
Haven’t you been paying attention, c@tmomma?
All Shorten’s career up to this point is merely a ruse so he can finally move into a house with a Harbour view.
Now, I, unfortunately, do not have pyschic powers so I can’t read Bill Shorten’s mind to be sure, but it makes so much sense when you consider this is part of small part of Hillary Clinton’s plan for world domination……
Sprocket_ @ #67 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:08 pm
And voters will crush that baby all the way. It will be (correctly) seen as keeping their snouts in the trough and milking it for as much as possible.
It would be an extremely “courageous” stunt to pull.
Nath
It took a while to parse the double negative, but I clearly haven’t being paying attention because I think he will, quite rightly, move into Kirribilli House.
Shorten is leading Labor with a huge 54-46 lead (and a constant lead for years) and we got the usual far-lefties claiming he should stand down and be replaced.
Completely surreal.
Asha Leu
If there must be a change in leader, someone like Pliberaek or Bowen or Dreyfus would be much more effective, in my view.
___________________
I would be happy with Plibersek or Dreyfus. Bowen not so much. reminds of a real estate agent.
Who is most likely to lead the Liberals when they move into opposition? Will they stick with Morrison? On current polling Dutton will lose his seat, so he’s out. JBishop might rise from the ashes, except she’s female, and likely to retire after the next election.
Abbott? Hunt? Ciobo? O’Dwyer? There is a long list of D Listers just waiting for their chance.
Millennial @ #79 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:17 pm
The life long dream of every Melbournian is to have a house overlooking Sydney Harbour. (facepalm emoji)
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/23/adani-coalmine-most-queenslanders-want-water-licence-revoked-poll-finds
Underestimate Shorten at your peril.The MSM always have and its got their men nowhere.
Dan Gulberry
The life long dream of every Melbournian is to have a house overlooking Sydney Harbour. (facepalm emoji)
______________________
It’s true, but just for holidays and New Years Eve 🙂
Good result for ALP.
After royal commission + 4.5 bil extra for schools + polishing of Morrison by Murdoch media and leadership issues being out of news cycle this is a good result for ALP.
Shorten won’t be bothered by the poll.
Meanwhile business are lining up to donate and work with Shorten
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/business-quietly-prepares-for-a-shorten-government-20180922-h15qhp
But 54-46 wasn’t the mode:
54/46: 14 predictions
53/47: 16 predictions
Seriously Mr Shorten should be at Kirribilli House a lot. Great tourism advert as Sydney Harbour beamed into the Northern Hemisphere.
A serious working as well as holiday location. Its why Google has a Sydney Headquarters.
Such coverage more than pays the cost of the PM being in Kirribilly.
The Tory back-bench on wafer thin margins would be screaming in horror with this result.
The fact is, Turnbull was their best bet, but the nutters won the day – of the view that Dutton or Morrison would have more electorate appeal than Mal.
Many hard lessons will be learnt by the coup plotters, who’ve done their party a great disservice.
Late Riser.
Using last election preference flows this result is very close to your PB mean… Lib 45.471
Asha
For someone who usually talks a lot of sense that is a remarkably silly statement. Haven’t you twigged yet that the Australian public are sick and tired of the merry go round of leaders that has occurred over the last ten tears. If Labor were stupid enough to do it again they would be annihilated by the voters at the next election. I wouldn’t even vote for them myself.
Despite Shorten having similar satisfaction ratings as this poll and constantly being behind in PPM the Batman, Longman, Bradon, Perth and Fremantle by elections have shown it does not mean a pinch of shit when real world political contests occur.
Turnbull was miles ahead of Shorten on all personal stats, called the Longman and Braddon by elections a test of leadership and look what happened there.
Anyway, I should know better than to be dragged into this bullshit.
Cheers and a good night to all for the last time this evening.
Peak Morrison happy clapper bullshit I would suggest.
Downhill from here all the way. Labor’s best bet would be to let him keep waffling like a god bothering twit and just keep out boxing him. Scotty is a dull marketing wannabe, he won’t be able to keep up.
Amanda Vanstone pulls no punches:
He knew full well what many of Shorten’s team thought of him … that he is a chameleon is the polite version. He probably knew of the union nickname “Showbag Shorten”… Shorten loves wealth. He married it, mixes with it, befriends it. He sucks up to rich people but sells himself as the worker’s warrior. How many worker’s warriors do you know who slurp strawberry daiquiris and champagne at a wedding reception while rubbing shoulders with billionaires?
https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/bill-shorten-man-of-the-people-give-me-a-break-20170728-gxkpy7.html
Dammit I want a strawberry daiquiri.
Don’t people usually get sick of Morrison and turf him out after about a year? 🙂
God their has been a lot of crap written about dumping Shorten considering doing that would lose Labor its strongest asset of a united Party with leadership stability.
I actually think Albanese has lost some of his shine after losing the leadership contest. Albo was likeable because he seemed above politics and a loyal lituent in the RGR years. After he refused to rule out a challenge to Shorten and gave a speech looking to destabilise he painted himself as ‘just another ambitious politician in it for himself’.