Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Better numbers for the Coalition in the third Newspoll of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, but Labor is still well in the clear on voting intention.

This fortnight’s Newspoll result is 54-46 in favour of Labor, after the Scott Morrison era began with successive results of 56-44. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (up two), Labor 39% (down three), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). Movement also to the Coalition’s advantage on personal rating: Scott Morrison is up three on approval to 44% and steady on disapproval at 39%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 32% and up three to 54%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-36 to 45-32.

UPDATE: Further findings from the poll record 24% of respondents saying Scott Morrison has made them more likely to vote Coalition, 31% less likely and 36% no influence; and 46% nominating Morrison as the more “authentic” of the two leaders, compared with 31% for Shorten. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1675.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

993 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. And speaking of Dutton and his recent fetish for the White South African Farmers, it seems that everyone in the Christian White Nationalist movement wants them to come and live with them. Like Vlad, for instance:

    And there’s a reason for that. Ann Coulter last year tweeted that in 20 years Russia will be the only country which is recognisably European, and all that that inferred. Real Time took up the issue a few weeks ago.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhJIt4uv9x4&list=PLAF22812129BFCD50&t=0s&index=7

  2. Yes Cat

    I think you are spot on when you talk of Russian “Christian” values. Whether it was political or due to his own faith, Putin has been a friend of the Orthodox church.

    This definitely distinguished him from the Communist predecessors.

    He has also been pretty friendly to most Jewish people. Not sure about Catholics.

    But yes I suspect he is a racist (to an extent, because he works well with China).

  3. There s a great deal of misinformed blaming of Obama for the corruption of the banking system in the US during the sub-prime credit mania. This all occurred during the era of the Bush Administration. The collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman occurred before Obama was elected. The laws that were in place to deal with securities-related violations were not enacted by Obama and the 2008-10 congress. The laws that applied to the banks up until Obama’s election were enacted before he was elected.

    It’s also not true to say the banks escaped penalty. The US Fed imposed a kind of administrative detention on the large banks, effectively suspending the flow of dividends and preventing the payment of bonuses for a couple of years. The system also ensured the orderly liquidation of insolvent banks and placed the largest non-bank risk-taker, IGA in bankruptcy.

    Considering the effects of the GFC are still being felt in the global economy, and it took most of Obama’s term for the effects of the crisis to be ameliorated, Obama gets remarkably little credit for preventing a far worse catastrophe.

  4. Margin Call (2011) was a good movie on the GFC. Told from the perspective of Goldman Sachs I believe who managed to minimize their exposure by being the first to see the crash coming and liquidating alot of their positions before shit hit fan.

  5. Aunt Mavis @ #949 Monday, September 24th, 2018 – 9:21 pm

    There is of course no nexus between the Four Corners’ investigation into aged-care and the sacking of Guthrie …

    Sure. Just a lucky coincidence for Morrison that it happened on the very day everyone was waiting for the other shoe to drop on the Aged Care story.

    That man just gets luckier by the day! Or perhaps his prayers were heard and answered? 🙂

  6. Mr Quadvlieg, in one of his more recent letters to the Senate Committee, several times referred to “Eric Abetz MP”. For someone who had occupied several senior jobs in Canberra, that’s a schoolboy howler on a scale that’s almost unbelievable, which certainly didn’t enhance any reputation he might have had as a witness with an eye to detail.

  7. Mr Quadvlieg, in one of his more recent letters to the Senate Committee, several times referred to “Eric Abetz MP”.

    As stated before, someone who thought he was a lot smarter than he actually was.

  8. Media Watch had this tidbit to say about Michelle Guthrie:

    when she returned to Australia and she’d only been looking for a job as a non-executive director – but no one would give her that gig

    I take that as meaning she wanted her snout in the trough without having to do any work to go with it.

    Which begs the question, why did the ABC employ her?

    And which also makes you ask why did she take the job, given it requires a passion for public broadcasting and a determination to fight its many critics, while ensuring government funding continues to flow?

    Very good questions indeed.

    http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/episodes/guthrie-gone/10300034

  9. One of the lessons of the Guthrie experience is if you appoint an insider to a job like hers, even if they aren’t necessarily the world’s best manager, they will have some idea of what they are doing. But if you appoint an outsider who doesn’t know the business because you think he or she will be a great manager, and the opposite turns out to be the case, you’ve then got NOTHING. People like that tend to leave ruin in their wake, as the good people in the organisation will have other options, and will walk. For every “disrupter” who stimulates some grand new way of doing things, there are three or four who simply mess everything up.

  10. I had a very good friend, alas dead now, who worked in the AFP Intelligence Bureau back in the day. He had a habit of writing reports dotted with esoteric words in order to force his readers to consult their dictionaries far more often than they would wish. He also loved to include foreign language phrases as frequently as possible, and not just the usual French or Latin.
    He was pre Quadbike I believe.

  11. Spotted on twitter (which about sums things up)

    Prof. Colin Talbot @colinrtalbot

    So some want a General Election with:

    A Tory PM who is a closet Remainer driving thru a hard Brexit
    Vs
    A Lab leader who is a closet Leaver now supporting a second referendum and Remain?

    What will that solve, exactly?
    9:26 PM – 23 Sep 2018

  12. Kambah Mick @ 10.47pm

    People can get into trouble when they use words they don’t understand. I well recall in my APS days seeing a flyer for an in-house course on “Management Fundaments”.

  13. So, Turnbull heavied Guthrie (no doubt in that charming way he does these things) about Probyn, then later on complained that Probyn had been promoted, rather than sacked.

    Somehow even after Turnbull was knifed, his complaint rankled so nastily with the ABC board that they decided to axe Guthrie.

    What bloody business did Turnbull have complaining?

    Why did the Board act on his complaint?

    Why, even, after Turnbull was out of the picture?

    This story in the SMH has the whiff of bullshit about it. There is no conceivable reason for sacking Guthrie on Turnbull’s say-so AFTER Turnbull has left the scene, except to cover up for a more sinister inside job from someone still in power, who needs Turnbul as a scapegoat.

    And (I would love to know) just WHO fed this fairy story to the SMH reporters, in such detail, so quickly following Guthrie’s dismissal?

    This reeks of a disinformation campaign, but alas, I fear that no-one in the media will look I to it any deeper than the usual tedious ball-by-ball analysis.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/michelle-guthrie-the-inside-story-behind-her-sacking-20180924-p505ok.html

  14. today I heard Jon Faine interview Mika Moira’s son. he mentioned that Mika had been one of over 5,000 parisian jews rounded up in 1941 – she somehow slipped out and was on about 100 of the 5,000 who survived the holocaust. It wasn’t said, but the hand that signed the paper would have been otto abetz.

    why am I suspicious of a grand nephew who has hard right attitudes? surely if you had this skeleton in your closet you would not be far right unless you shared the great uncles views?

  15. The problem with the Kavanaugh nomination is that if he withdraws, or is refused by the Senate, Trump will likely nominate someone equally as bad. Even if the Republicans lose the Senate in November, they will still control it in the lame duck sessions until next year.

    What happens if:
    . Kavanaugh gets through his Senate hearings and is appointed to the Supreme Court
    . The Democrats win the Senate
    . More comes out about Kavanaugh or a Senate enquiry (a Democrat controlled Senate has the power to subpoena witnesses) finds evidence that he perjured himself during his confirmation hearing?

    Would Kavanaugh be forced to resign or face impeachment? That would put the court back to evens, and give Democrats veto power over the next appointment.

  16. So Westpac is giving “risky” borrowers a month to refinance in the face of interest rate increases and falling property values

    Simply, where will such refinance be available?

    “I have been given a month to refinance from Westpac because of my risk profile so will you please lend to me?”

    Answer?

    So the exit strategy is sale and the full repayment of the loan – and what is the impact of such forced sales (even by proprietors not the lender)?

    Again our banks threaten the Nation and the well being of the Nation because they manage with absolutely no consistency waxing between grow the book regardless then navel gazing at the prospect of impaired debt and provisioning – and this is once again the result

    Meanwhile our dysfunctional government and pm are more consumed by being called Scomo – showing exactly how juvenile the god bothered we now have as pm is

    He is out of his depth – and to such a level it defies description

    Simply, in the first instance a borrower approached a bank requesting the approval of a loan application

    The bank then assessed that application and said YES

    The bank lent

    The responsibility is with the bank – not the client

    Our ineffectual pm, more interested in grinning down a camera exclusively, should instead be picking up the phone to the Chairman of the Board of Westpac reminding them that they approved the lending and that Westpac therefore have a duty of care to the borrower (given lending covenants are not breached, specifically the loan repayments not falling into arrears)

    Westpac approved on the basis of the intent and capacity to service – including the contingency of elevated interest rates because from where interest rates have been since 2008 they were always going to go up (from a Cash Rate which is the lowest ever)

    The LVR is what it is, also a factor in approval

    By forcing loans from their books the bank introduce the risk of escalating any fall in property values – with further impact on LVR’s, so a cascading effect which the Nation can not afford

    Our banks have not learnt from the Savings & Loans crisis of the late 1980’s/early 1990’s when property values were under pressure and lenders escalated that circumstance or from the sub prime lending crisis pre dating 2008

    Grow the book, grow the book, pay the bonuses

    Then

    Shit- we are exposed to bad and doubtful debt provisioning, stop the presses and force the (now) risky lending onto someone else, anyone else including the citizens of the Nation, as happened with sub prime lending

    Sorry Westpac

    You said “Yes” in the first instance so if servicing is now an issue the resolution is with your Balance Sheet, exclusively

    Westpac have form

    Look at the Foreign Currency Non Trade lending and other lending which was the subject of a book when Westpac came within the thickness of a bee’s foreskin of collapsing in the late 1980’s

    And the lending into Docklands – 100% financed to the contractor and the stapled debt investors, who lost their money attracted because of a tax ruling with complexity

    Westpac are probably the worst of our banks with their post deregulation record – and they are still at it

    Scomo or whatever he looks into the mirror and calls his ugly self needs to pick up the phone

    This is serious

  17. BB,
    Re Guthrie’s sacking
    I would say the RWFW were worried she was going native, allowing more criticism of the Gov’t in the important run up to the election.
    The article about Murdoch masterminding Turnbull’s removal would have been the last straw.
    Sure she was unpopular, but she was allowing too many articles providing information contrary to what Murdoch wanted.

  18. From the AFR https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=2ahUKEwjU6OmY3NPdAhVBUN4KHbdkB_0QFjAAegQIYxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fnews%2Fabc-head-michelle-guthries-cynicism-cost-her-job-20180924-h15sup&usg=AOvVaw28TSPJemYkFG5mHU60kWLA

    Sources on both sides said there was a disagreement over the ABC’s approach to funding. Mr Milne and the board wanted to concentrate on Project Jetstream, a plan to centralise the ABC’s historical recordings and video footage that could cost up to $500 million.

    Ms Guthrie was “cynical” about the ability to pay for the plan, and was focused on the Coalition’s decision to freeze funding for three years at a cost of $84 million, board sources said.

    Guthrie’s management style was obviously causing issues. I think she was probably right on Project Jetstream though. It’s also worth noting that previous MD Mark Scott actually cut more staff.

    Eric Campbell tweeted the following a little while ago:

    Eric Campbell Verified account @ericperipatetic

    I never met Michelle Guthrie and disagreed with much of what she did. But she did a lot to break down bureaucratic empires and modernise the ABC. Whatever else, she earned the right not to be trolled on her final day.
    7:22 PM – 24 Sep 2018

  19. bc @ #980 Monday, September 24th, 2018 – 11:22 pm

    I think she was probably right on Project Jetstream though.

    There’s no probably about it. Spending $500m in cash (from where?!?) to build a glorified, gold-plated multimedia SAN is not a funding approach. Unless you’re the IT contractor being paid to develop this massively overpriced technological boondoggle for the ABC. Then it’s a funding bonanza!

    And Guthrie certainly wasn’t wrong about being upset that the government cut $84m out of her actual funding. If anything, she was far, far too weak in challenging the government and speaking out against them. But there’s probably something in the charter about that.

    Incompetent manager or no, on the balance I think Guthrie is/was far less of a problem for the ABC than its arrogant, condescending, “I don’t have to explain myself to the likes of you” board member(s). I’d rather have her running the show than them.

  20. On Milne refusing to give reasons for sacking Guthrie, I have seen several posts on Twitter suggesting this is so he doesn’t open himself up to a potential defamation suite.

  21. bc @ #983 Monday, September 24th, 2018 – 11:36 pm

    On Milne refusing to give reasons for sacking Guthrie, I have seen several posts on Twitter suggesting this is so he doesn’t open himself up to a potential defamation suite.

    I believe the Australian adjective for that position is milquetoast.

    Besides, he wouldn’t be opening himself up to a defamation suit. If his remarks are delivered as
    ‘ABC Board Member’ then at most he exposes the ABC to a defamation suit. Which when weighed against the public interest in the story and the importance of having transparency in all aspects of how Australia’s public broadcaster operates, is fair enough.

    There are transactional costs in axing the CEO halfway through their term. If the board wasn’t willing to pay them , then perhaps they shouldn’t have axed the CEO.

    And of course the other thing with defamation suits is that it’s not defamation if it’s true. As long as the board hasn’t fabricated their reasons for dismissing Guthrie they should have nothing to fear. Although if they have, then yeah, I’d expect that to lead to a whole lot of “oh no, I wouldn’t dream of talking about that” milquetoast BS.

  22. observer,

    interesting. In my circles, WBC have been fingered as the weakest link over and over again from many different people in-the-know.

    It’s a dangerous game they are playing with the financial sector.

  23. Nath @9:22
    “Shorten’s hands are more like claws than human appendages, they are also of a reddish color, a legacy of the knifings of Rudd and Gillard.”

    Nath, your early postings seemed to me so extreme in their vituperation of the leader the ALP that I thought it best to ignore them. After your subsequent outbursts on other posters, I felt justified .
    Then you started to improve to the the point of occasional politeness, and even wit!
    Now you are reverting to your old ways. Just what is the basis for your extreme distaste for Mr Shorten? Is there some personal dispute?.In any case, it would be more seemly to restrain your outbursts to (e.g.) spitting in his general direction.
    Rex and Wayne are boring in their monomania, but you are boxing the compass in your implacable abuse.

  24. a r @ #981 Monday, September 24th, 2018 – 11:33 pm

    bc @ #980 Monday, September 24th, 2018 – 11:22 pm

    I think she was probably right on Project Jetstream though.

    There’s no probably about it. Spending $500m in cash (from where?!?) to build a glorified, gold-plated multimedia SAN is not a funding approach. Unless you’re the IT contractor being paid to develop this massively overpriced technological boondoggle for the ABC. Then it’s a funding bonanza!

    And Guthrie certainly wasn’t wrong about being upset that the government cut $84m out of her actual funding. If anything, she was far, far too weak in challenging the government and speaking out against them. But there’s probably something in the charter about that.

    Incompetent manager or no, on the balance I think Guthrie is/was far less of a problem for the ABC than its arrogant, condescending, “I don’t have to explain myself to the likes of you” board member(s). I’d rather have her running the show than them.

    If I was Rupert Murdoch and I wanted to make money, the digitisation of all ABC production prior to closing it down would be great…

  25. SMH journos floundering in a sea of confusion.

    This SMH article says Guthrie was being protected by Turnbull, not harassed by him (e.g. over Probyn).

    But it was Turnbull’s mate who sacked her.

    So who’s protecting who, who’s a mate, and who’s pulling the strings.

    Quite a bit more to go on this story I think.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/guthrie-s-messy-departure-shows-abc-more-dangerous-than-murdoch-20180924-p505pm.html

  26. A desperate government, hopelessly behind in the polls, devoid of any policy other than self-interest, unable to unite behind a series of hapless leaders, now turning on the public broadcaster, after a misguided attack on Shorten through the Unions and unable to protect the banks from their dishonest shenanigans, turning now to the American, to save themselves and his influence.
    This action, to dismiss Guthrie, like NEG, like retirement age, like school funding, all dripping with pathos.
    What a scenario to the most prosperous economic period in the short history of Australia.
    What a rabble, led now, by a blow in from the shire, so far in over his empty head he’ll stay afloat for a short time.
    A country screaming out for leadership, water security, climate change, renewables, transport, education, health, poverty, all too hard for a Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison government running the other way.
    Pathos! For the people! Who’d have thought!

  27. I’m with Maude. Since when did the Libs give a stuff about competence. Guthrie was sacked because the ABC reporting is going off reservation.

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