Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Better numbers for the Coalition in the third Newspoll of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, but Labor is still well in the clear on voting intention.

This fortnight’s Newspoll result is 54-46 in favour of Labor, after the Scott Morrison era began with successive results of 56-44. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (up two), Labor 39% (down three), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). Movement also to the Coalition’s advantage on personal rating: Scott Morrison is up three on approval to 44% and steady on disapproval at 39%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 32% and up three to 54%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-36 to 45-32.

UPDATE: Further findings from the poll record 24% of respondents saying Scott Morrison has made them more likely to vote Coalition, 31% less likely and 36% no influence; and 46% nominating Morrison as the more “authentic” of the two leaders, compared with 31% for Shorten. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1675.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

993 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. “Bushfire Bill says:
    Monday, September 24, 2018 at 7:12 pm
    ABC TVNews gives ScuMo the credit for getting Badgery’s Creek airport going. He’s the Can-Do PM.
    In reality? All he did was to turn up with a shovel in hand.”

    With Guthrie disposed of, the ABC news, current affairs and investigation units will become even more subservient to Menzies House and Murdoch Media.

  2. “WWP
    They appealed to the same emotions.”

    I disagree, they have a common message of change and improvement, but they appealed and quite deliberately to polar opposite emotions.

    From “Lock her up” and “Build the Wall” to “Yes we can” and “Change we can believe in” is difficult to beat in terms of different.

    The other overlap is that you may well catch the same ‘disaffectedness’ with the opposite messages, in that some might be very unhappy with the status quo and pretty much happy to run in any direction to get to anywhere else. Doesn’t make it the same direction when they get on the train though.

  3. Today’s sacking of Guthrie leaves us with the same question as the turfing of Turnbull. Why!? Either or both of “Morrison or Murdoch wanted it so” is a reason I could understand, and heartily disapprove of. If Guthrie was incompetent, then say it. But given you won’t say why it was done the next question becomes, why won’t you say?? I want to know. Ancillary questions are, why was it so sudden? Who made the decision? … etc.

    I was also particularly taken by the response Milne gave on the ABC news tonight when asked what it was about Guthrie’s style that wasn’t right (or wtte). I am paraphrasing because I don’t recall the exact words, but it was something like “I don’t need to tell *you*.” The emphasis was clearly and carefully placed on the word “you”.

    Stunned. Still. The reporter wasn’t asking for his personal information but for mine and everyone else’s. The ABC is not your personal plaything. But it fits. “I don’t need to tell *you*” is exactly what this government and it’s broadcaster board apparently share as core values.

    Grr…&^*!

  4. Late Riser says:
    Monday, September 24, 2018 at 7:39 pm
    Today’s sacking of Guthrie leaves us with the same question as the turfing of Turnbull. Why!? Either or both of “Morrison or Murdoch wanted it so” is a reason I could understand, and heartily disapprove of. If Guthrie was incompetent, then say it. But given you won’t say why it was done the next question becomes, why won’t you say?? I want to know. Ancillary questions are, why was it so sudden? Who made the decision? … etc.

    I was also particularly taken by the response Milne gave on the ABC news tonight when asked what it was about Guthrie’s style that wasn’t right (or wtte). I am paraphrasing because I don’t recall the exact words, but it was something like “I don’t need to tell *you*.” The emphasis was clearly and carefully placed on the word “you”.

    Stunned. Still. The reporter wasn’t asking for his personal information but for mine and everyone else’s. The ABC is not your personal plaything. But it fits. “I don’t need to tell *you*” is exactly what this government and it’s broadcaster board apparently share as core values.

    Grr…&^*!

    I hope Labor can force a Senate Inquiry into the whole tawdry business of L/NP and Murdoch interference in the ABC and especially any role played by Morrison in Guthrie’s sacking.

  5. There’s actually an interesting point to be made in this about deontology versus utilitarianism. What value he added by referring to the “time-flux continuum” is less clear. He may have been attempting to impress me personally with the notion that he is not the jackbooted goon that I imagined him to be at the time of “Operation Fortitude”. No doubt I loom large in his consciousness.

  6. citizen, We can hope I suppose. As cynical as I am, I am still continually gob-smacked by the obvious disdain meted towards us plebs.

  7. I thought he was just making fun of corporate gibberish, though for what purpose I couldn’t tell.

    If he was actually being serious, well, I don’t really know what to say, besides the fact that Labor would probably be wise not to hitch their wagon to close to his.

  8. Fun to imagine… err
    Ghost of PJK @GhostOfPJK
    #FatmanSlim and #ScoMo out on the town in Cronulla… come across the Sharkies on mad-monday..Andrew Fafita punches ScoMo in the Face and Fatman Slim gropes some local blonde called Narelle. Nice…. #abc730 #auspol

  9. “Poncing about with flowery language trying to show how smart he is is kinda dumb, actually.”
    Reminds me of the ponce that won the Booker a few years back, John Banville.

  10. I believe that the Republicans will abandon Kavanaugh because if he’s on the court the stigma attached to him will attach to the Republicans for as long as he is on the court. Even if they confirm him, he may have to resign when faced with intense, widespread, relentless anger in the community about a credibly accused sex offender exercising the most powerful judicial office. The other judges might not be able to work with him without undermining their own reputations. More than half the country will have zero respect for the Supreme Court if Brett Kavanaugh is part of it. Without a basic level of public trust, the court won’t be able to function. Rushing him onto the court would not result in mere short-term damage to Republicans.

  11. The time-space continuum phrase may have been in reference to the space they, the ASs, have taken up over time, which adds to the ‘gravity’ of the situation. 🙂

  12. Q’s comment is presumably taking the p!ss. Time-flux continuum is meaningless gibberish. And his use of Rubicon is also incorrect; the point of crossing the Rubicon is that it’s an irreversible phase shift not a tipping of the balance in the wrong way. Surprisingly he gets the arguments about deontology and utilitarianism correct, but that was probably a lucky guess. 😀

  13. In the TV film When Time Expires (1997), time traveller Travis Beck (Richard Grieco) has a watch fitted with a ‘time flux continuum sensor’ that beeps a warning if he’s about to change the future.

  14. I can’t help it. Whenever I see a picture or read something from Quadvlieg go near to retching. Same with Dutton. Locking up kids is evil.

  15. Quaedvlieg sounds like a bit of a word wanker to me.

    He’s shown he’s not up to the task – his day job, dobbing his minister, betraying his mate – and now he’s trying to impress with academic terminology which, as William posits, means very little of any import.

  16. —-
    he is not the jackbooted goon that I imagined him to be

    First time I saw a photo of Quadvaelig (senate estimates I think) his hands were front and centre. Beautiful hands. Perfectly manicured. Ladies hands. No jackboot.

  17. Not to mention that it reveals that he entertains the notion that what he has done is fundamentally wrong in principle, before attempting to imply that the ends didn’t cease being a justification for the means years ago under his watch. What Rubicon has been crossed recently? It’s been happening for years.

  18. I always thought RomanQ was chosen because he looked the part. Unlike Dutton, his boss, who would look kind of weird in a uniform, even though he obviously loves them.

  19. First time I saw a photo of Quadvaelig (senate estimates I think) his hands were front and centre. Beautiful hands. Perfectly manicured. Ladies hands.

    I’ll wager those dainty pinkies ne’er weighed anchor in a storm.

  20. Simon² Katich® says:
    Monday, September 24, 2018 at 8:57 pm

    —-
    he is not the jackbooted goon that I imagined him to be

    First time I saw a photo of Quadvaelig (senate estimates I think) his hands were front and centre. Beautiful hands. Perfectly manicured. Ladies hands.
    ____________________
    you could have a future writing erotica Simon. tell me more.

  21. “I always thought RomanQ was chosen because he looked the part. Unlike Dutton, his boss, who would look kind of weird in a uniform, even though he obviously loves them.”

    I think that Dutton would look very much the part in the uniform associated with a certain regime in a prominent Central European power in the first half of 20th century.

  22. And speaking of Dutton and his recent fetish for the White South African Farmers, it seems that everyone in the Christian White Nationalist movement wants them to come and live with them. Like Vlad, for instance:

    KOSYAKOVO, Russia — Leon du Toit slowly inhales the late summer breeze off fields belonging to a dairy farm not far from Moscow. “Smells just like home,” the 72-year-old South African said.

    That’s just what one Russian political figure hopes to hear.

    He is leading something of a charm offensive in South Africa with a very particular goal: hoping to lure white South Africans to move 8,000 miles away to rural Russia.

    The selling points are abundant farmland, relative safety and a country that holds tight to traditional Christian values.

    What is not said — but clearly understood — is how this fits neatly into the identity politics of Russian President Vladi­mir Putin.

    The West may view Putin largely as a strategic and military adversary. Yet inside Russia, much of his support grows from the idea of Russia as the caretaker for a white, Christian and old-style order — rejecting “so-called tolerance, genderless and infertile,” in Putin’s own words in 2013.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/why-russia-is-wooing-south-africas-white-farmers/2018/09/23/3308a7c4-b6a3-11e8-ae4f-2c1439c96d79_story.html?utm_term=.bace420d085d

  23. My accountant brother-in-law helps on the family farm near the Barossa Valley a few times a year.

    He has wicket-keeper’s gloves for hands.

    Mine are Quadvaeligian

  24. Bill Clinton was called the “First Black President’ yet for every 100 black americans in jail when he took office 150 were in jail when he left.

    https://www.ssc.wisc.edu/soc/racepoliticsjustice/2016/08/13/race-mass-incarceration-and-bill-clintons-policies/

    This is an informative excerpt covering the era of mass imprisonment in the US, said to have commenced in the 1980s, been continued by Clinton and to have continued at least through the Bush years. There are many startling features, not least being the staggering rise in the imprisonment of black-, hispanic-, asian-, native- and white-Americans. The increase in the imprisonment of whites was so pronounced that the ratio of black-to-white prisoners fell even though the number of black prisoners also rose notably.

    This seems to have been attributed to the “war on drugs”, especially on crack cocaine, and to the extension of policing from densely populated urban areas to small cities, towns and rural areas, where whites are the dominant ethnic group.

    Clinton’s part seems mainly to have revolved around a 1994 omnibus crime bill that toughened sentencing, increased federal funding for state prisons and provided for 3-strike incarceration.

    The rate of increase of blacks tended to decline after 1995, but began to rise again after 2000.

  25. June Dally-Watsername teaches her students that you can not judge a man by his shoes alone, you also need to examine his fingers.

  26. When commenting on Obama/trump it is often useful to remember that we are each much more easily done over by the people we like/love than by those we hate. Taht is why there is domestic violence. People tolerate it because they once loved the perpetrator.

    Obama I think had his heart in the right place – he did not want to bomb iraq but when push came to shove he destroyed Libya, sent more troops to Afghanistan and sent thousands also to Syria. He must be judged in the end by the consequences of his rule not by his good intentions. As they say the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

    A good man but a weak one.

    On economic matters I am not sure he was a good man. he loved those bankers.

    The problem is that each time there is a POTUS who promises but does not deliver or who sell out what he says he will do or is incompetent, the public faith in the system takes another hit and eventually just like an isthmus collapsing into the sea, the public will reject the system.

    I suggest you get the laura Tingle podcast i heard today. oddly enough she repeated word for word the comments i made earlier in the day.

    it is NOT hyst about the USA or Australia
    Think:
    Brexit
    Poland almost being suspended from the EU
    Hungary same
    Almost Grexit
    Italian elections
    almost Scottish Independence
    Calalonia

    Nothing is simple anymore

  27. There is of course no nexus between the Four Corners’ investigation into aged-care and the sacking of Guthrie, resulting in a RC, which will no doubt result in the sector receiving a large increase in funding. The responsible minister ,Wyatt, should immediately resign. It’s absolutely disgusting the way we treat the elderly. I witnessed both of my parents die agonising deaths, always suspicious of the way they were treated in their final months, but could not prove anything. I’m absolutely pissed off! Angry! And wish we could’ve looked after them at home, but both had severe dementia, so it was impractical. Fuck this government for taking so much money from the aged-care budget, while looking after their corporate mates.

  28. Shorten’s hands are more like claws than human appendages, they are also of a reddish color, a legacy of the knifings of Rudd and Gillard.

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