Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another poll records a drift back to the Coalition after the post-leadership spill blowout, along with strong support for quotas to boost female parliamentary representation in the Liberal Party.

The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 a fortnight ago. We are told the Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, and Labor down one to 36% – we will have to await the full report later today for the minor party primary votes. UPDATE: Genuinely unusual results on this score, with One Nation slumping three points to 5% and the Greens up two to 12%. Full report here.

The poll also finds 61% support for female representation quotas for the Liberal Party (68% among Coalition voters), with 21% opposed; 37% supporting proposed government legislation to safeguard religious freedoms, with 26% opposed; and 82% supporting a federal anti-corruption body, with only 5% opposed. Also featured are Essential’s recurring questions on trust in institutions, which as usual find high levels of trust in police forces, the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank, but lower levels for trade unions, religious organisations, federal parliament, business groups and, especially, political parties.

Other polls of late that I have so far neglected to mention:

• A poll of the regional New South Wales seat of Hume finds Liberal member Angus Taylor leading 57-43, which represents a 3.2% swing to Labor. Both parties are well down on the primary vote compared with the 2016 election, with the Liberals on 41.8% (down 12.0%) and Labor on 26.9% (down 4.9%). This reflects both a 10.4% showing for One Nation and a 6.6% increase for “others” to 14.3%, with the Greens steady on 6.6%. The poll was conducted by ReachTEL for the Australia Institute from a sample of 690.

• Also from the Australia Institute comes a survey of 1449 respondents regarding recent royal commissions. This finds the one into the banking and finance industry to have the highest level of public awareness, followed in order by those into child sex abuse, trade unions and the Murray-Darling Basin. As the organisation no doubt hoped, the survey found the banking and finance industry inquiry was overwhelmingly perceived to have been more productive than the one into trade unions.

• A poll of Victorian state voting intention, conducted by ReachTEL a fortnight ago for the Bus Association of Victoria from a sample of 1008, found Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, and 42% to 40% on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,474 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. bc

    What a shit thing to say.

    It would be a shit thing to say if BB had ever seen Mavis with and without a bag, but seeing as Mavis and BB are both anonymous bloggers it is really quite innocuous.

  2. Brett Kavanaugh behaved just like the aggressive entitled teen that Ford described. She is a highly credible witness. During his hearings he lied under oath about many matters large and small. The question is whether he is fit to hold the highest judicial office, not whether he should go to jail. He manifestly failed that test in his behaviour during the hearings.

    If he is confirmed, the Democrats should say that they won’t recognise the legitimacy of a credibly accused attempted rapist and obvious perjurer on the Supreme Court. They should say that any majority Supreme Court opinion that depends on his vote will be tainted. When they gain control of any house of Congress they should carry out the investigations that the Republicans blocked. They should encourage all of his victims to come forward. They should name his resignation or removal from office as a necessary step to repairing the damage that Republicans have inflicted on the Supreme Court.

    You can’t negotiate with people who are incapable of acting in good faith.

  3. Jolyon Wagg says Saturday, September 29, 2018 at 12:34 am

    It would be a shit thing to say if BB had ever seen Mavis with and without a bag, but seeing as Mavis and BB are both anonymous bloggers it is really quite innocuous.

    No, it’s still a shit thing to say.

  4. Aunt Mavis:

    In point fact, when younger, I was attractive – I think?

    Whether you were or were not is of no consequence to your worth here, and I don’t think you should feel the need to defend yourself on that basis.

  5. Lighten up, everyone.

    In many ways this has been one of the most entertaining and enlightening evenings ever on PB.

    Secrets have been revealed, idiocies exposed, personalities laid bare and reputations hung on the laundry line.

    And Rex wasn’t even here!

  6. When people comment on an anonymous blog about things they can’t possibly know, I assume they are joking, or projecting.

    My favourite is when people say “lay off the grog”. I always assume they are pissed.

  7. Look, I’m not as young as used to be, in fact I’m a little older, but I do the encourage the Left to get out there to to counter the Right – Abbotts, Abetz, Andrews , et al are a danger.

  8. ‘Great work, Emma X’: bombshell text

    A text from new ABC acting chair Kirstin Ferguson to reporter Emma Alberici threatens to derail the relationship with Canberra.
    Headline in the Oz.

  9. steve davis @ #3462 Friday, September 28th, 2018 – 11:42 pm

    ‘Great work, Emma X’: bombshell text

    A text from new ABC acting chair Kirstin Ferguson to reporter Emma Alberici threatens to derail the relationship with Canberra.
    Headline in the Oz.

    And there nestled in the comments below the article is the following gem which begins:

    Mitch Fifield should go.

    Can’t argue with that, however it concludes:

    Bring Abbott into the ministry as communications minister.

    😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

    Yeah, that’ll fix it.

  10. Damien Owens @OwensDamien
    ‘Judge Kavanaugh, in your high school yearbook you listed one of your hobbies as Premeditated Sexual Assault.’
    ‘That’s a board game about studying hard and respecting your parents.’

  11. WeeHalfPint ✊✌ @weehalfpintt
    Replying to @OwensDamien

    Writing secret codewords in yearbooks ffs?
    Know what guys did in Scotland, wrote on toilet walls… “I shagged *name*” or “*name* gives blow jobs!”
    Its not better but at least they werent some fucked up wannabe Deads Poets Society

  12. Bushfire Bill @ #3463 Saturday, September 29th, 2018 – 2:00 am

    There’s been what looks like a severe earthquake and tsunami in Indonesia.

    Judging from the video of the tsunami slamming into the city embedded in the article, pretty bad. Poor devils.

    This is not a bunch of bored pseuds like us arguing over how many frat boys can sit on the head of a pin. It’s elemental.

    We can walk and chew gum at the same time. 🙂

  13. Michael 2
    I am not the one out of my depth.

    I call it as i see it. You and most of the other herd saw what you wanted to see whereas I saw the lady who asked all the questions basically win the nomination case, without once hurting Ford. She did this by gently outlining the changes in her story and then linking it the the Democrats. She basically managed to portray Ford as a victim of the democrats, used and tisted by them.

    Remember she was NOT trying to win national votes – just those three Senators.

  14. Thanks for the reply Fess, I have watched some Doomsday Prepper tv shows. One woman had a party for other preppers. She makes her money running prepper food workshops. She proudly boasted that some of the ingredients were five years old. Everyone was enjoying themselves. Not so much ‘slow food’, more like hibernating food.

    I always wonder how they feel when they are about to drop off the perch and realise all that hoarding food and bullets was for nothing. They might have well spent the time and money on having fun.

    Puffytmd @ #3358 Friday, September 28th, 2018 – 9:39 pm

    As I said, I do not know who is telling the truth and I am not going to try to guess. I just think there is enough to pause the process until the allegations are investigated in an attempt to get at the truth of the matter.

    Oh, and if Rowe V Wade gets overturned, don’t be surprised if all hell breaks loose.

    I do not think it is the reactionaries and RWNJs who will be taking to the streets with sharpened pitchforks, baseball bats and whatever the NRA sold them for personal protection. It will be enraged and desperate ordinary people. It will be the displaced workers, disenfranchised minorities, angry women, and our hope-deprived youth.

    Why do you think the Hard Right are militarising police forces, curtailing civil liberties and banking our data?

    It is not because they are scared of doomsday preppers and Trump admirers. Those dopes are too busy canning capsicums and swapping recipes for pies made using five-year old bottled pumpkin and dried buckwheat pastry, to be any trouble. The first sign of smoke and they are 30 foot underground guarding their hoard with enough weaponry for a small South American revolution. They will come out when it is all over, if at all.

    The powerful beast fears the ants. They fear the angry man and woman who says, ‘Fuck it! They’ve left me nothing left to lose.’

    Someone had better start redistributing resources and putting in place ethical democratic systems or the fall of Rome and the French Revolution could end up looking like picnics in the park.

    Didn’t Warren Buffet warn of this very thing?

  15. I hope you are wrong. I understand the Take No Prisoners approach and I do not have any sympathy for any Repugs who get in the way of the objective. Ever since Abbot and PMJG I have developed a cynical side. The RWNJs do not fear the Left and know how to use our own ideas of fairness against us.

    What the Dems are doing is fair, but ruthless. No-one forced him to apply for the job, he just did not expect the other side to use his own Repug tactics against him when he fronted for the job interview.

    I wonder how many USAians are like me, glad to see the opposition standing up and using their swords instead of debating the etiquette of a reply.

    I will admit it. I am enjoying this bit of nasty.

    DaretoTread @ #3399 Friday, September 28th, 2018 – 10:23 pm

    Michael 2

    Not at all. What the Democrats are trying to do is to prevent and extreme RW judge be appointed and to preserve the stability of the Supreme Court. Their goal is admirable but their methods are not nice and somewhat tricky.

    My judgment which I know is not that of 90% of people in the media and politics is that it backfired. We will see.

  16. DTT
    I am sorry, I got you mixed up with Confessions. I blame my head cold and painkillers.

    Thank you for your reply and compliment for my buckwheat pancake post. There is a prepper/survivalist site, one of many I suppose, on Facebook that actually comes up with interesting ideas for things, not that I would ever make them. One was using empty coke bottles to create a water heater, or something.
    Personally I think working towards a better society is a more useful way of ensuring survival. But I am a pinko commie leftie who hides under the bed.

  17. Bushfire,
    What’s up? You are saying things you never used too. You owe an apology for that remark. It is a personal attack on Mavis. Not that I know who Mavis is, but it does not matter. Have you a burr under your saddle?

    For the record, I have made it clear that I do not who is telling the truth. I am not a walking, talking lie-detector. The nomination should stop until these claims are investigated.

    As for the Dem tactics, I no longer give quarter. A repug or RWNJ are fair game afaiac. If that makes me a lesser person, so be it. Fighting those bastards means you sharpen both sides of your axe.

    bc @ #3449 Friday, September 28th, 2018 – 11:44 pm

    Bushfire Bill says Friday, September 28, 2018 at 11:18 pm

    Mavis, put that bag back on. You’re more attractive that way.

    What a shit thing to say.

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