Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another poll records a drift back to the Coalition after the post-leadership spill blowout, along with strong support for quotas to boost female parliamentary representation in the Liberal Party.

The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 a fortnight ago. We are told the Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, and Labor down one to 36% – we will have to await the full report later today for the minor party primary votes. UPDATE: Genuinely unusual results on this score, with One Nation slumping three points to 5% and the Greens up two to 12%. Full report here.

The poll also finds 61% support for female representation quotas for the Liberal Party (68% among Coalition voters), with 21% opposed; 37% supporting proposed government legislation to safeguard religious freedoms, with 26% opposed; and 82% supporting a federal anti-corruption body, with only 5% opposed. Also featured are Essential’s recurring questions on trust in institutions, which as usual find high levels of trust in police forces, the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank, but lower levels for trade unions, religious organisations, federal parliament, business groups and, especially, political parties.

Other polls of late that I have so far neglected to mention:

• A poll of the regional New South Wales seat of Hume finds Liberal member Angus Taylor leading 57-43, which represents a 3.2% swing to Labor. Both parties are well down on the primary vote compared with the 2016 election, with the Liberals on 41.8% (down 12.0%) and Labor on 26.9% (down 4.9%). This reflects both a 10.4% showing for One Nation and a 6.6% increase for “others” to 14.3%, with the Greens steady on 6.6%. The poll was conducted by ReachTEL for the Australia Institute from a sample of 690.

• Also from the Australia Institute comes a survey of 1449 respondents regarding recent royal commissions. This finds the one into the banking and finance industry to have the highest level of public awareness, followed in order by those into child sex abuse, trade unions and the Murray-Darling Basin. As the organisation no doubt hoped, the survey found the banking and finance industry inquiry was overwhelmingly perceived to have been more productive than the one into trade unions.

• A poll of Victorian state voting intention, conducted by ReachTEL a fortnight ago for the Bus Association of Victoria from a sample of 1008, found Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, and 42% to 40% on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,474 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. DTT, OK. I understand you didn’t like Ford’s demeanour in the hearing. You are who you are, and respond to what you observe the way you do. Just like all of us.

    I suppose that is the basis of your thinking that this entails something about how Americans of various political colours will respond, and further that these responses will add up to fewer votes for the Democrats and more for the Republicans?

  2. dtt…self-martyring insta-troll…wot a transparently fraudulent Trumpocrat…unsurpassed effort today…it’s all there….slut-shaming….apologia for K’s lies….self-exoneration….grovelling….whinging….slinging insults….no stone unturned at the troll academy…..

  3. Observer
    I saw an article saying Guthrie only tabled her allegations against Milne last week so the board might not have had time to work through the issues or they may be guilty as sin. The investigations are meant to look at the board so we might find out if they should all go.

  4. A happy ending:

    My grad student (and also good friend), who is almost 40, produced an excellent PhD thesis, and it was recently passed with but a few changes requested (one A and one B, for those who are interested). All almost done – but see below.

    Just when she was needing to write day and night to finish the thesis, she discovered she was pregnant. Like Jacinda Ardern, she had assumed this would not happen naturally. She did the most amazing job to get the thesis finished with the usual sickness and lethargy that accompanies the first trimester and to be honest most of the second.

    She had a very sheltered upbringing, and so knew nothing of what to expect in pregnancy. She is also in a third world country, accompanying her OH, who is on the post-doc circuit.

    So, I did the best I could from a distance, to help birth the PhD, but also, to help with providing advice on how to be healthy while pregnant, and to make sure she knew, that I knew, that the baby was more important than anything.

    She and OH had no medical insurance, and I was really concerned at how they were going to manage. The pregnancy was close to unsupervised, but they did manage to get scans etc. at the appropriate times, and things seemed OK.

    When she was 35 weeks, she and I were going over the thesis on Skype – we almost got there. Then she disappeared from Skype for a few days, and I was worried.

    Apparently she went into labour at 35 weeks, and waited 12 hours to be seen at a charity hospital. However, a couple of female obstructions eventually looked at her, and realised that she was just about to give birth, with the baby in the breech position, feet first. They rushed her off for a caesarian (good I told her – she was a bit worried about missing the natural childbirth experience).

    Her little boy was quickly extracted, but he had an abnormality – on his right hand only one thumb and two fused fingers. Her OH quickly told me via email that the baby was born, but they had to wait several days for the hear, lung, and brain scans to make sure that the particular abnormality was not associated with any other neonatal abnormalities.

    I have been waiting for days with baited breath to hear how things are.

    I finally talked to her yesterday – everything is fine. When her little boy had the brain scan, and she was told everything was OK, she cried, and the radiologists asked why she was crying. She said she was so relieved that everything was normal.

    So, the happy bit – three radiologists attended the brain scan – it is a teaching hospital. When she cried because the brain scan was normal, the female radiologist showed her her own hand, because she also has a few missing fingers, and explained that this had not stopped her doing medicine and specialising in radiology.

    My guess is that the radiologist with that particular hand / finger anomaly came along to the scan to reassure my friend.

  5. Kavanagh isn’t being convicted of anything, he wants a job as a judge.

    He should at least have the pretence of not being a stooge. Stooges don’t get to cry “poor bugger me” conspiracy crap as if they are surprised anyone would want to block them.

  6. From the link in my previous post, I put Nate Silver’s take up against DTT’s here, for us to consider:

    “So it [Brett Kavanaugh’s testimony] was a damn-the-torpedoes approach. Between that and Ford’s very effective testimony — and the very ineffective questioning of her — I think today was a bad day for Republicans electorally (again, my position for a while now has been that they should pull the nomination if they’re concerned about the electoral effects) but maybe not so bad for Kavanaugh’s chances of confirmation.”

  7. Dio

    You know or should know that I am not saying any such thing.

    What we know is that there seemed to be just two girls at the party/gathering.

    Ford runs out after the attack and goes home alone. Well that just does not happen. Perhaps they had had a row or something but it is very rare for a girl to go home alone leaving another girl alone in the house.

    FWIW once in my youth I landed myself into a potentially dangerous situation of that kind. Luckily no alcohol had been consumed but I had a very nervous whole night.

  8. And Nathaniel Rakich (same link):

    “Overall, I think what bubbles to the top from today was Ford’s powerful, emotional opening statement. In this age of social media, I think it’s going to be hard for swing senators, such as Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, to vote for a nominee who is the subject of such compelling video/testimony. I don’t think Kavanaugh rebutted it effectively in his half of the day — he did not come off nearly as likable, and I think that will matter more to swing voters than the “defiance” strategy he clearly chose.”

  9. Michael 2

    Hmm! Nate is a great statistician, but I am not sure he is a super good judge of the “the vibe” I will await Michael Moore’s opinion. He is much more likely to know how it is going down in the rural heartland and the rust belt.

  10. She doesn’t think much of Kavanagh, DTT, but likes to see things done nice and regular, not via witch trials.

    The last throw of the dice with her case at work came in the final investigation report which stated that the investigators knew she was guilty because she denied guilt so consistently.

    The report had, as its 11 attachments (300 pages), forged signatures, tampered documents, fresh charges she had never seen or responded to (two of which were unknown to law), new evidence, and statements such as the above. They even found her guilty of arguing about whether she was argumentative, plus answering questions “in an accusatory tone”. They threw the book at her, plus the bookcase, the desk, the chairs and the tea trolley.

    It took us 4 days to get that report, which had taken 15 months and about $300,000 to produce metaphorically shredded and set aside. The complsinant had retired 4 months previoysly. The investigators and decision makers had no further involvement.

    Over the 22 months before she got her job and all her back pay and holidays reinstated, we dealt with and waved goodbye to 1 Service Director, 5 HR managers, 1 senior HR consultant, 3 Departmental Directors and 4 Chief Executives that had been involved in our case via official documentation.

    It wasn’t done by crying (although there was a lot of that, at home but not during official business), by begging, by abusing or bullying. It was done with persistence backed up by hard evidence on our side, and bullshit on theirs.

  11. D&M
    She should definitely see a geneticist to look for associated syndromes which are common with hypoplastic thumbs. An ECHO of the baby’s heart is the most important.

  12. Bushfire Bill :

    I tend to to think you’re a wonker; I mean to say, you’re an expert in everything bar law.

    Pleaese don’t tell me to again: “To bag your head, Mavis” – shocking, just shocking, you couldn’t. make this suff up.

    Albiet you’re a young has-been, we netherless like you, based on your diffential opinion.

  13. BBC reporting Trump is working the phones according to Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

    That sounds to me that he still has not got those votes he needs for the confirmation to happen. The longer the delay the worse the politics gets for Trump

  14. Now for “the vibe” from Cincinnati, a large city in swing-state Ohio which is more Democrat than rural parts of Ohio, but more Republican than other large cities in the US.

    The reactions reported here look grim for Republicans who might hope their base gets “fired up” by an “attack on one of their own”.

    DTT, I really don’t know where you get your intuition about how various groups of American voters will react to these hearings. Out of thin air, it seems to me.

  15. @OC

    I am glad i came of age in the 70s – sexual negotiations were much simpler.
    Bob Hudson’s next lines were
    Sometimes they like you or just for the thrill
    And they explain it away in the morning

    From a male point of view if you kept them talking till 3, you were in.

    Yep, and from the female point of view that is all fine. I just wish I had taken more advantage of what was offered to me by nice guys like you, rather saying at about 2.30 am, “Well, I really must go now”.

    When female friends were pressured into sex, including with force, it was very obvious to us gals what line had been crossed. And, it had nothing to do with the amount of alcohol consumed. I had friends coming to me at parties telling me they had been raped, and crying. One in particular then spent the next several weeks terrified that she was pregnant. I did not know what to do then – we both realised that going to the police was not a viable option. We were in a small country town community, and I also knew her assailant. Son of pillars of the church.

  16. dtt
    I’m convinced Ford is telling the truth as she sees it. She mentioned it to a therapist years ago. She may have been drunk, forgot, misremembered or confused things but the basics of the story are true. What exactly happened or if it was even Kavanaugh I don’t know but she’s not making it up.

  17. Yes the stacking of the Supreme Court has been in place since at least the Civil War

    About a 3rd of Republicans voted for Sotomayor. Pretty sure almost all of them voted for Ginsburg. Plenty of Dems voted for Roberts.

    Kavanaugh showed himself to not only be conservative but also partisan. The Republicans have made this nomination political and divisive. In refusing to allow full hearing or investigations of the facts and witness of the several allegations of criminal conduct and instead just a ‘he said v she said’ they have allowed the nomination and confirmation to become a circus.

    Attempted rape is a crime with heavy sentences attached. This is not about teenagers finding their way.

    I was pushed from behind into a bedroom.
    I couldn’t see who pushed me.
    Brett and Mark came into the bedroom and locked the door behind

    them. There was music already playing in the bedroom. It was turned up louder by either Brett or Mark once we were in the room. I was pushed onto the bed and Brett got on top of me. He began running his hands over my body and grinding his hips into me. I yelled, hoping someone downstairs might hear me, and tried to get away from him, but his weight was heavy. Brett groped me and tried to take off my clothes. He had a hard time because he was so drunk, and because I was wearing a one-piece bathing suit under my clothes. I believed he was going to rape me. I tried to yell for help. When I did, Brett put his hand over my mouth to stop me from screaming. This was what terrified me the most, and has had the most lasting impact on my life. It was hard for me to breathe, and I thought that Brett was accidentally going to kill me.

  18. @Dio

    She should definitely see a geneticist to look for associated syndromes which are common with hypoplastic thumbs. An ECHO of the baby’s heart is the most important.

    Thanks! I think they have decided to come back to Australia, even though there will not be a job in astrophysics. My last few PhD students have gone into industry with their “big data” skills, and they are all loving it.

  19. BB

    Like your wife I am no fan of Kavanagh and he seems to be a cast actor from Revenge of the nerds – the preppy ones.

    However I am not at all happy about 36 year old issues being dragged up to derail a nomination, especially matters such as this. The antics of over privileged drunken kids should not be part of the discussion. This is that if it was a job interview here in Australia it would be illegal to raise the issue because it happened possibly when he was 17.

    The other more serious issue is that there will be tit for tat. Next time the democrats want to appoint someone there will be something similar raised. No judges will be appointed

  20. If anything disqualifies Kavanaugh from the Supreme Court, the fact that he blatantly and openly lied under oath about his drinking habits and his yearbook entries is a big fat warning sign as much so as his numerous sexual assault allegations.

  21. DTT

    Ford is not being political. Even the GOP accepts her allegations are credible.
    They have just tried to claim mistaken identity.

    The timeline and intent of confidentiality is clear.

    You can claim like Trump supporting protestors are doing right now it’s a Witch Hunt. You can’t claim Dr Ford is being political. Not when even the GOP accepts that point.

  22. dtt
    FWIW I kind of agree on the registry idea but think women should be encouraged to see a doctor, social worker, counsellor or anyone with expertise who can talk to them and document there was an allegation at the time to record it for posterity.

  23. D and M

    We have a space industry now. Western Australia has a satellite contract with Skynet. So maybe you won’t have to wait too long for astrophysics jobs to appear.

  24. DTT, you think the Democrats should wave Kavanaugh through, to avoid “tit for tat”? Because being magnanimous and bipartisan, as former President Obama was in appointing a Republican as Defence Secretary (Robert Gates), and meeting Republicans more than halfway on financial sector reform post-GFC and in drafting ObamaCare, sure paid dividends for him when it came to his nomination of Merrick Garland to the SC!!!

    What planet to do think we all live on?

  25. DTT, I didn’t even get down to your last sentence: “No judges will be appointed” if Democrats don’t cave on Kavanaugh now!

    Merrick Garland, Justice of the SCOTUS, 2016-????


  26. Question

    I like that Trump is having to “work the phones”. It gives me hopes that we may at least see a delay. National Public Radio Morning edition now playing on ABC Newsradio

    All Court Nomination at the moment.

  27. Game theory says that you should do unto others as they have done unto you – at least for a while – then negotiate. So treating opponents as reasonable and respected adversaries with a valid point of view and a mandate should be off the menu for now, for Democrats and for Labor.

    For the first two years of a Labor Government, they should ask “what would Abbott do?”. Then do likewise, making an exception for race-baiting and barefaced lying.

  28. Question & Guytaur,

    I’m smiling from ear to ear that Trump is on the blower to all his GOP lickspittles in the Senate. His personal exhortations did bupkis to bring ObamaCare down.

  29. Good to hear Guytaur,
    My crappy grasp of US politics is we have 1 GOP who has been all talk on not liking Trump and is retiring, so he may as well do something, and 2 others who are publically pro-choice.

  30. The other more serious issue is that there will be tit for tat. Next time the democrats want to appoint someone there will be something similar raised. No judges will be appointed

    “If you stop this drunken rapey dickhead from becoming a Supreme Court Justice, soon enough no drunken rapey dickheads will ever become Supreme Court Justices!”

  31. Steve777, exactly. The biggest mistake Labor made after losing in 1996 was to hide for 18 months in the naughty corner, as if they agreed the electorate were right to turf them out. The Howard Government seized the opportunity to paint Labor’s entire 13 years in power black. Remember Howard & Costello constantly crowing about “Beazley’s Black Hole”? Labor just sat there and took it.

    Their next biggest mistake was to refrain from similarly convicting Howard & Costello for the structural budget deficit they left behind, which officials knew was the reality behind the glossy, mining boom inflated headline budget surpluses.

  32. Oakeshott Country @ #3333 Friday, September 28th, 2018 – 9:39 pm

    An American 40 year old used the internet to entice a 16 year old Australian girl to go to the US for apparently consensual sex and got 35 years hard with the general approval of the MSM.

    I was hard pressed to know what the offence was let alone why it resulted in 35 years. what did I miss?

    In some U.S. states the age of consent is something higher than 16. That would make the offence statutory rape. And as far as the law is concerned, it would make the perpetrator a pedophile. Which is probably why 35 years.

    Semi-related pointless story. During my senior year in high-school (or “college”, whichever) one of my friends had a girlfriend two years younger (so he was 18, she was 16). They had sex a few times, but they broke up and she ended up spending the bulk of her time screwing this 34 year old cyclist (no, I don’t know how it’s possible for anyone to be a self-supporting 34 year old cyclist). Eventually her parents discovered she was having sex (pregnancy scare, I believe) but didn’t know with whom. In an effort to spare the cyclist from legal trouble she claimed to have still been sleeping with my friend. Unfortunately for him the law says that 18 and 16 is just as much statutory rape as 34 and 16, which is something her parents were entirely happy to make clear (apparently being a bit of the overprotective sort). Ultimately they decided not to bring the police in, but they left that threat hanging over my friend’s head should he ever be caught going anywhere near their daughter again.

  33. There is a Democrat Joe Mansion in the mix. So with Flake being yes from last night. Its gone from four to three

    Last night commentators were saying almost a certainty. This morning they are saying better than even.

  34. BB:

    Please stop being so nasty, you knowing full well that the epitete ‘bag back on. You’re more attractive that way’ is very hurtful. Pleases stop it. In point fact, when younger, I was attractive – I think?

  35. Douglas and Milko

    Been out all evening – great story. Really moving. All the best to your student for her work and her baby. On a day when the roles of men and women in society are under intense focus it is great to hear her story, and of the kindness of that radiologist.

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