Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another poll records a drift back to the Coalition after the post-leadership spill blowout, along with strong support for quotas to boost female parliamentary representation in the Liberal Party.

The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 a fortnight ago. We are told the Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, and Labor down one to 36% – we will have to await the full report later today for the minor party primary votes. UPDATE: Genuinely unusual results on this score, with One Nation slumping three points to 5% and the Greens up two to 12%. Full report here.

The poll also finds 61% support for female representation quotas for the Liberal Party (68% among Coalition voters), with 21% opposed; 37% supporting proposed government legislation to safeguard religious freedoms, with 26% opposed; and 82% supporting a federal anti-corruption body, with only 5% opposed. Also featured are Essential’s recurring questions on trust in institutions, which as usual find high levels of trust in police forces, the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank, but lower levels for trade unions, religious organisations, federal parliament, business groups and, especially, political parties.

Other polls of late that I have so far neglected to mention:

• A poll of the regional New South Wales seat of Hume finds Liberal member Angus Taylor leading 57-43, which represents a 3.2% swing to Labor. Both parties are well down on the primary vote compared with the 2016 election, with the Liberals on 41.8% (down 12.0%) and Labor on 26.9% (down 4.9%). This reflects both a 10.4% showing for One Nation and a 6.6% increase for “others” to 14.3%, with the Greens steady on 6.6%. The poll was conducted by ReachTEL for the Australia Institute from a sample of 690.

• Also from the Australia Institute comes a survey of 1449 respondents regarding recent royal commissions. This finds the one into the banking and finance industry to have the highest level of public awareness, followed in order by those into child sex abuse, trade unions and the Murray-Darling Basin. As the organisation no doubt hoped, the survey found the banking and finance industry inquiry was overwhelmingly perceived to have been more productive than the one into trade unions.

• A poll of Victorian state voting intention, conducted by ReachTEL a fortnight ago for the Bus Association of Victoria from a sample of 1008, found Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, and 42% to 40% on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,474 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. William:

    Another poll records a drift back to the Coalition after the post-leadership spill blowout

    I don’t wish to know that.

  2. Would love to see the texts Malcolm has been sending Milne since he was deposed. Bet he’s been telling Milne to show Guthrie the door.

  3. Maybe it’s just early morning but I note last night various people going on about “Eric Abetz MP”. I know he’s a Senator, but strictly speaking aren’t all the Reps and Senators “MP’s”?

    You could write MHR after their name for a Rep, or Senator before their name if they are one.

    Also many people seem to get Roman’s surname wrong – isn’t it Quaedvlieg?

  4. After the turmoil and trauma of the Lib leadership spill, voters are giving Morrison some breathing space to make his case to run the country. All the doubts are still there. But, I reckon we’re seeing the manifestation of the Aussie “Fair Go” characteristic. The media have been quite positive. But, the media turns fairly quickly once a bad by-election result or continuing poor polling occurs.

    The voters will make their judgement in a few months.

  5. Montgomery County investigators are ‘looking at’ allegations from potential fourth Kavanaugh accuser: report

    A new report from the Montgomery County Sentinel claims that investigators in Maryland are looking into allegations from what could be a potential fourth accuser against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

    Specifically, Montgomery County investigators say that an anonymous witness came forward over the weekend to level charges against Kavanaugh that date back to his senior year in high school.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. There’s a lot on Guthrie’s sacking which should hardly come as a surprise.

    Here’s the detail on the Essential poll.
    The SMH reckons it’s got the inside story on Guthrie’s sacking.
    Elizabeth Knight’s take on it is more credible.
    In a strong defence of the organisation Jenna Price says Guthrie was a victim of her own lack of understanding of the ABC’s purpose.
    Karl Quinn explains what a tough gig Guthrie had.
    The AFR says that the ABC board was concerned that Guthrie wasn’t committed to an ambitious plan for the nation’s television and radio heritage.
    Joh McDuling tells us about Justin Milne, the man who sealed Guthrie’s fate. It’s hardly a ringing endorsement!
    Jacqui Maley reckons Guthrie would have seen it coming.
    Michelle Pini looks at the Morrison/Murdoch connection in the sacking.–murdoch-connection,11927
    Quentin Dempster explores whether or not there was a political motive behind the Michelle Guthrie sacking.
    This Professor of Journalism (and former Head of ABC TV News and Current Affairs) writes that despite her good intentions, Michelle Guthrie was never the right fit for the ABC.
    Michael Koziol reports that Guthrie is considering suing the ABC over her dismissal.
    Peter Hartcher writes that the actions of China are driving Australia into Trump’s arms.
    A week before the deadline for Kenneth Hayne’s interim report on misconduct in financial services it is clear that grandfathered trailing commissions are headed for the chop.
    John Passant has written that PM Scott Morrison is the removalist — removing anything that might stop the Coalition retaining Government at the next election, or, at least, the things that could turn the defeat into a rout.,11925
    Nicole Hasham tells us how Kristina Keneally is getting under the government’s skin over her “witch hunt” on the GBRF.
    Stephen Bartholomeusz explains why the global economy is getting more vulnerable.
    The SMH editorial says that rather than focusing exclusively on the divisive issue of migration, Mr Morrison should start talking about the federal government’s role in managing urban development.
    According to Phil Coorey the Turnbull government was contemplating extra funding for some public schools in order to soften the blowback after giving extra money to Catholic and non-government schools.
    The charter plane that crashed into a DFO shopping centre near the Essendon airport killing five people was doomed as soon as it got airborne after the pilot skipped a pre-flight safety checklist. Looks like pilot error 1.01.
    ME Bank chief executive Jamie McPhee expects house prices to edge lower for up to two years following several years of strong growth in the major metropolitan markets of Melbourne and Sydney, but says there’s no reason to panic.
    Confusion surrounds the future of Rod Rosenstein, the official overseeing the probe into Russian election meddling.
    The head of the Catholic Education Commission of Victoria has expressed regret that Simon Birmingham lost his portfolio over schools funding reforms, appearing to take credit for ousting the education minister.
    Thanks to Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s principled dedication to socialism for the rich, Catholic and independent schools will no longer flounder with only two or three playing fields per campus.
    Alexandra Smith reports that Gladys has engineered some deals to quell the party’s internal conflagration.
    Greg Jericho takes a close look at the outlook for housing prices in the major cities.
    Oil prices have jumped more than 3 per cent to a four-year high above $US80 a barrel after Saudi Arabia and Russia ruled out any immediate increase in production.
    Arwa Mahdavi writes that the president of the United States has sent women the worst message: that there is no point telling people about your assault because you won’t be believed
    The pharmaceutical industry is engaging vast numbers of lobbyists and donating millions to both political parties, creating a level of influence that a former health department secretary has linked to Australia’s high medicine prices.
    This could be a significant breakthrough in the fight against malaria.
    A previous “Arsehole of the Week” nomination collects some jail time.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe farewells Guthrie.

    Peter Broelman sees Guthrie off.

    Johannes Leak puts the boot in.
    John Shakespeare might be close to the mark here.

    Paul Zanetti is suggesting that Mesma’s a little out of touch with common people.

    More in here.

  7. Trump’s entire presidency is threatened by one document Rosenstein signed — which explains why he has to go

    A heavily-redacted document signed by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein could be the key to Donald Trump’s increasing attacks against him.

    As Mark Sumner of Daily Kos wrote, Rosenstein’s order authorizing Robert Mueller to expand his probe into former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort likely contains language allowing the special counsel to investigate the president’s business dealings.

    “Trump not only wants Rosenstein out—he wants to make Rosenstein part of his Deep State/Drain the Swamp/They’re all out to get me narrative,” Sumner wrote. “He wants it immediately. Because this thing is slipping away from him by the hour, and he knows it.”

    The results of Mueller’s expanded investigation have already shaken Trump to his core, the writer noted.

  8. Will Kerryn Phelps shameless stunt-a-thon succeed? Probably. Her latest…

    The #ABC is one of our most precious public institutions. We need our publicly funded independent broadcaster to ensure media diversity, free of political or commercial interference. An independent and properly funded ABC is the voice of Australia. We must fight for its future

  9. The pitfalls of the infatuation with younger audiences and digital platforms, though, were nowhere more evident than in the launch of ABC Life in August. With its focus on food, sex and relationships, family and so on, this lifestyle-focused website lobs into an already-crowded space in the market – and does so at the reported cost of 18 journalists, roughly the same number axed form ABC newsrooms earlier in the year as part of Guthrie’s investment in “digital strategy”.

    Audience renewal is a challenge for all legacy media. But throwing the baby boomer out with the bathwater is not the way to achieve it.

  10. And it appears the NSW Liberal Party are all happy families again..

    NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet humiliatingly has backed down from his preselection challenge to Disability Minister Ray Williams in a bid to save Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s government after four days of vicious Liberal turmoil.

  11. Sprocket_ @ #13 Tuesday, September 25th, 2018 – 7:04 am

    And it appears the NSW Liberal Party are all happy families again..

    NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet humiliatingly has backed down from his preselection challenge to Disability Minister Ray Williams in a bid to save Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s government after four days of vicious Liberal turmoil.

    Because servile waste of political space, Damian Tudehope, has agreed to step aside in Epping for Perrottet. Thus has he been gifted an Upper House seat for his services.

  12. Since there are clearly at least two of us here with the “Michael” moniker, I’ll go by “Michael 2”, since I’m probably more recent to this blog.

  13. Morning all. So the Liberals have had their ScumMo bounce? Sorry but sometimes I have to wonder how much attention voters are paying. A reportedly talentless, political ladder climber, who spent his time as treasurer lowering real wages, stabbed his boss in the back while he was watching Dutton, and demonises refugees to deflect attention from failed immigration and infrastructure policies, is the new great white hope? And a far right religious zealot to cap it off. People, dont be taken in by the ScumMo grin.

  14. Employment lawyer Josh Bornstein of Maurice Blackburn said executive contracts were difficult to challenge and a lawsuit was unlikely to succeed. Ms Guthrie was probably not entitled to a termination payment, although could claim unpaid leave, he said.

  15. Thanks BK. I do not doubt Guthrie had flaws, but nor do I believe the stated reasons for her sacking. The current government would more likely give her a bonus for lowering ABC staff morale.

  16. Im convinced Morrisson could eat a baby live in front of the cameras, and a month later the polls will still drift back towards the coalition.

  17. Gippslander
    Now you are reverting to your old ways. Just what is the basis for your extreme distaste for Mr Shorten? Is there some personal dispute?.In any case, it would be more seemly to restrain your outbursts to (e.g.) spitting in his general direction.
    Rex and Wayne are boring in their monomania, but you are boxing the compass in your implacable abuse.
    My last post on Shorten was kind of a parody on my dislike of the man, but that dislike is real and for the following reasons.
    1. negotiated deals with companies that put money into the pockets of the AWU and members on their rolls, sometimes with adverse outcomes for workers.
    2. took a round the world trip on R.Pratt’s private plane to S.America, Easter Island and Cuba. Worth hundreds of thousands while the AWU were negotiating for workers at VISY. This only came out because Jeannie Pratt mentioned it in 2011 I believe.
    3. Used the Beaconsfield disaster as a personal platform for self promotion.
    4. Knifed Rudd and Gillard because it was advantageous to his ambitions. A successful Rudd or Gillard government would have probably cost him the chance of being PM.
    5. A sense that Shorten is only interested in Shorten.

  18. Socrates

    I would say that the Board and the govt are equally responsible for the ABC omnishambles. The Board has been stacked with right wingers pretty ignorant about public broadcasting. And then there’s Mitch and Malcolm (and Abetz).

  19. Lizzie

    Agreed. Plus the government has set up the low staff morale. They wanted a transformed ABC, and the new platforms would cost money. Yet budgets were fixed or even cut, so existing staff and functions had to go. So implementing policy was bound to make Guthrie unpopular. Boards always bring in external managers when they want to make deep cuts.

  20. And in one post, nath, proves beyond a reasonable doubt his unreasonable bias against Bill Shorten. Blocked.

    Btw, no one who was actually at Beaconsfield agrees with you, nath.

  21. nath

    1. incorrect.
    2. sounds like it was a gift to his then-wife – she was the one with the connection to the Pratts.
    3. no. He was the union leader, and the request that he be the spokesperson came from the families of the men concerned.
    4. No. The movement to knife Rudd started with the Victorian Left (and a VL member replaced him). Shorten was one of the last to come on board when it came to reinstating Rudd. His vote was decisive, true, but he was not an instigator.
    5. If Shorten was only interested in Shorten, he would have taken the same path in life as his twin brother, who has done very well in business.

  22. Big A Adrian

    What we are seeing here is the ‘give the guy a fair go, at least he seems to be trying’ factor.

    I’m not sure where the live babies bit comes from – at the moment, Morrison has bent over backwards to prove he isn’t a live baby eater but a warm and cuddly daggy dad.

    The crucial thing to note is that, after several years in the full glare of the public, in positions of power, he has left virtually no imprint on the mind of voters.

    Although this helps him at the moment – he has a relatively clean slate to write on – it’s an indicator of how totally unimpressive he is.

    At least people know who Shorten is!

  23. Morrison has form with collectivising the good and disavowing bad news. That’s his thing, and it’s trite and meaningless, and whatever thin veneer of credit he might think he’s acquiring, it’ll wash off quick smart once dinky electioneering starts. As John Passant writes (thanks BK), he’s out to clear the decks of trouble, but the trouble is stuff the voters want dealt with, not sanitised away.

    Yesterday, doing his hokey blokey hivis schtick at Sydney’s western airport sod turning, we get this sort of too clever by half bullshit : ‘this is the greatest thing since *we* built the harbour bridge’.

    We as in lifters not leaners, god fearing Christians, whities having a go, that sort of we.

  24. zoomster
    Tuesday, September 25, 2018 at 7:42 am
    1. incorrect.
    That the AWU took cash payments from many companies is a matter of record.

  25. zoomster
    4. No. The movement to knife Rudd started with the Victorian Left (and a VL member replaced him). Shorten was one of the last to come on board when it came to reinstating Rudd. His vote was decisive, true, but he was not an instigator.
    Sounds like Feeney was doing the leg work for Shorten against Rudd but Shorten moved in quickly when it mattered.
    For months, a group of Labor senators who did not like Kevin Rudd had been meeting regularly for dinner.
    On Tuesday night, the location was La Capanna restaurant in Kingston. Senators David Feeney, Steve Hutchins and Mark Bishop were among those at the table.
    At 9.30am on Wednesday, Senator Feeney, from the Victorian Right, and Mark Arbib, from the NSW Right, asked Gillard to challenge.
    Bill Shorten, the Victorian Right MP, had approached Gillard the week before and asked her to stand. He saw her again on Wednesday.
    By late afternoon, after question time, momentum was building but had not reached critical mass. The Left was oblivious to what was going on and the traditional heavyweights such as Senator Faulkner were out of the loop, but Senator Arbib was working the NSW Right. By early evening, most of the faction had swung behind Gillard.

  26. No wonder women are up against it. So many men have no respect for them. Especially powerful, White, so-called Christian men in positions of power and influence:

    “It is imperative the Judiciary committee move forward on the Kavanaugh nomination and a committee vote be taken ASAP.” — Sen. Lindsey O.Graham (R-S.C.), Sept. 19

    On Sunday night, the New Yorker’s Ronan Farrow and Jane Mayer published an article detailing a new allegation of sexual misconduct against Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh, the Republican Supreme Court nominee. Deborah Ramirez, a Yale classmate from Kavanaugh’s undergraduate years, described a drunken freshman-year dormitory party during which she claims he exposed himself and thrust his penis into her face, causing her to touch it accidentally as she pushed him away. None of it, she said, occurred with her consent.

    “I would think an F.B.I. investigation would be warranted,” she said, acknowledging that she too was inebriated during the party and that there are gaps in her memory.

    The article offers disturbing details about the alleged event at Yale, and about the alcohol-soaked backdrop of Ivy League and prep-school party culture when Kavanaugh was a student in the 1980s. But tucked into the New Yorker article is one particularly appalling revelation that speaks less to the character of the Supreme Court nominee himself than to that of the Republicans who continued to press his case:

    The offices of at least four Democratic senators have received information about the allegation, and at least two have begun investigating it. Senior Republican staffers also learned of the allegation last week and, in conversations with The New Yorker, expressed concern about its potential impact on Kavanaugh’s nomination. Soon after, Senate Republicans issued renewed calls to accelerate the timing of a committee vote.

    Ah. We had wondered what the hurry was, and now it all makes sense. It turns out that Graham and other in-the-know Republicans were likely in a rush because they were hoping to get out ahead of a second female accuser, to ram through a confirmation vote before any new potential roadblocks could be brought to light. It was “imperative.”

    They “expressed concern” — not about the truth of the allegation, or the impact such an incident might have had on the accuser, or whether it sheds light on the existing allegations made by research psychologist Christine Blasey Ford. No, they were concerned about the potential impact on Kavanaugh’s nomination — and whether it would hamper their ability to install their favored candidate in a lifelong appointment, where his decisions could affect the lives of millions.

    If you wondered whether senior Republicans wanted to find out the truth about their nominee or the allegations levied against him — by Ford, by Ramirez or in any other case — you have your answer.

    If you assumed that these Republicans cared about character, or that the concerns of women matter to them in any way, it’s time to revise that assumption.

    If you held out hope that Kavanaugh’s advocates would set aside their partisan aims in favor of country, justice or even preserving the legitimacy of the nation’s highest court, it should be extinguished.

    And if there were any doubt that Kavanaugh must withdraw from the nomination, it has been resolved.

  27. Honestly at this stage a miracle would have to occur for Labor to lose the election.

    Anyway Scott Morrison’s attempts to appease the conservatives and moderates in the Liberal Party is going to fail. Because the former have been infected increasingly with Trumpism, to deal with that sort of ideology you need to either fully support or oppose it.

  28. Richard Au Tuffin ‏ @RichardTuffin

    Dave Sharma confirming on #rndrive that he’s not in favour of restoring funding to the ABC.

    I wonder how the electors in #wentworthvotes feel about that.

  29. When Gillard suggested that in fairness a spill should be declared so that the MPs could vote on their choice, Rudd refused, knowing he didn’t have the numbers

    I think it’s ridiculous to insist that any one person ‘knifed’ Rudd.

  30. And so with the strains of the Kill Bill soundtrack playing by Nath in the background, I bid PB adieu once more. Have a good day all. Maybe today ScumMo will tell us all how he will raise real wages? I will not hold my breath.

  31. @lizzie

    I don’t predict Labor will win the Wentworth by-election, however the chances that Dr Phelps wins the Wentworth by-election is increasing by the day. All is needed is the Liberal primary vote to go down below 45%, her to score second place on the primaries and a good preference flow from other candidates.

    I wonder how the government is going to put the spin on losing a seat the party has held it’s formation.

  32. Roger
    Tuesday, September 25, 2018 at 8:09 am
    Feeney and shorten were factional rivals
    You are a moron
    I wont even comment.

  33. lizzie
    Tuesday, September 25, 2018 at 8:14 am
    When Gillard suggested that in fairness a spill should be declared so that the MPs could vote on their choice, Rudd refused, knowing he didn’t have the numbers
    I think it’s ridiculous to insist that any one person ‘knifed’ Rudd.
    This is a new and potentially ground breaking theory. No one knifed Rudd, it was just a vote out of the blue by Gillard ‘in fairness’ to spill a first term PM just so that everyone could ‘vote on their choice’. Nothing fairer, just a harmless hands up, who wants to be milk monitor?

  34. It’s interesting how the troll never mentions the virtually Morrisonesque role his supposed hero, ‘Albo’, played in the ‘knifing’ of Julia Gillard in favour of Rudd 2.0

    Can’t taint the KillBill narrative with the truth, can we?

  35. C@tmomma
    Tuesday, September 25, 2018 at 8:24 am
    It’s interesting how the troll never mentions the virtually Morrisonesque role his supposed hero, ‘Albo’, played in the ‘knifing’ of Julia Gillard in favour of Rudd 2.0
    Can’t taint the KillBill narrative with the truth, can we?
    Albo stayed loyal to Rudd from go to woe.

  36. Good Morning

    Read the Independent Australia article.

    Its a great alternative view to the boosting the other media are giving to Morrison and I think closer to the reality

  37. I apologise for my contribution to the nath-inspired conversation. Not because I’m wrong, but because I shouldn’t encourage him in his trolling.

  38. Thanks, AntonB.
    This is probably the most accurate view of the Guthrie execution. Expect a massive purge at the ABC before the election campaign starts. Morrison is right about Trump and himself being alike.

    “Some total dills at the ABC are complaining that Guthrie didn’t talk to them enough, etc etc. Quentin Dempster shows what idiots they are. Talking about turkeys voting for Christmas.”

  39. Kavanaugh and Republicans are digging in, convinced it’s all just a smear campaign.

    President Trump and fellow Republicans dug in Monday in their support for Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh, as the Supreme Court nominee vowed to fight back against additional allegations of sexual misconduct, which he called a coordinated smear campaign.

    In a defiant letter to leaders of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Kavanaugh said he would “not be intimidated into withdrawing from this process.”

    “The coordinated effort to destroy my good name will not drive me out,” said Kavanaugh, who will testify Thursday before the committee. “The vile threats of violence against my family will not drive me out. The last-minute character assassination will not succeed.”

  40. Cheryl Kernot‏ @cheryl_kernot · 17h17 hours ago

    Guthrie lost my support early on when she described the ABC’s audiences as being all concentrated in child care or aged care centres! Very ill informed #auspol #ABCGuthrie

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