The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 a fortnight ago. We are told the Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, and Labor down one to 36% – we will have to await the full report later today for the minor party primary votes. UPDATE: Genuinely unusual results on this score, with One Nation slumping three points to 5% and the Greens up two to 12%. Full report here.
The poll also finds 61% support for female representation quotas for the Liberal Party (68% among Coalition voters), with 21% opposed; 37% supporting proposed government legislation to safeguard religious freedoms, with 26% opposed; and 82% supporting a federal anti-corruption body, with only 5% opposed. Also featured are Essential’s recurring questions on trust in institutions, which as usual find high levels of trust in police forces, the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank, but lower levels for trade unions, religious organisations, federal parliament, business groups and, especially, political parties.
Other polls of late that I have so far neglected to mention:
• A poll of the regional New South Wales seat of Hume finds Liberal member Angus Taylor leading 57-43, which represents a 3.2% swing to Labor. Both parties are well down on the primary vote compared with the 2016 election, with the Liberals on 41.8% (down 12.0%) and Labor on 26.9% (down 4.9%). This reflects both a 10.4% showing for One Nation and a 6.6% increase for “others” to 14.3%, with the Greens steady on 6.6%. The poll was conducted by ReachTEL for the Australia Institute from a sample of 690.
• Also from the Australia Institute comes a survey of 1449 respondents regarding recent royal commissions. This finds the one into the banking and finance industry to have the highest level of public awareness, followed in order by those into child sex abuse, trade unions and the Murray-Darling Basin. As the organisation no doubt hoped, the survey found the banking and finance industry inquiry was overwhelmingly perceived to have been more productive than the one into trade unions.
• A poll of Victorian state voting intention, conducted by ReachTEL a fortnight ago for the Bus Association of Victoria from a sample of 1008, found Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, and 42% to 40% on the primary vote.
William:
Another poll records a drift back to the Coalition after the post-leadership spill blowout
____________________
I don’t wish to know that.
Would some ONanists be drifting back to the big tent? If so, what is the effect of that?
Would love to see the texts Malcolm has been sending Milne since he was deposed. Bet he’s been telling Milne to show Guthrie the door.
Maybe it’s just early morning but I note last night various people going on about “Eric Abetz MP”. I know he’s a Senator, but strictly speaking aren’t all the Reps and Senators “MP’s”?
You could write MHR after their name for a Rep, or Senator before their name if they are one.
Also many people seem to get Roman’s surname wrong – isn’t it Quaedvlieg?
After the turmoil and trauma of the Lib leadership spill, voters are giving Morrison some breathing space to make his case to run the country. All the doubts are still there. But, I reckon we’re seeing the manifestation of the Aussie “Fair Go” characteristic. The media have been quite positive. But, the media turns fairly quickly once a bad by-election result or continuing poor polling occurs.
The voters will make their judgement in a few months.
Montgomery County investigators are ‘looking at’ allegations from potential fourth Kavanaugh accuser: report
A new report from the Montgomery County Sentinel claims that investigators in Maryland are looking into allegations from what could be a potential fourth accuser against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
Specifically, Montgomery County investigators say that an anonymous witness came forward over the weekend to level charges against Kavanaugh that date back to his senior year in high school.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/09/montgomery-county-investigators-looking-allegations-potential-fourth-kavanaugh-accuser-report/
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. There’s a lot on Guthrie’s sacking which should hardly come as a surprise.
Here’s the detail on the Essential poll.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/25/labor-keeps-election-winning-lead-over-coalition-in-guardian-essential-poll
The SMH reckons it’s got the inside story on Guthrie’s sacking.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/michelle-guthrie-the-inside-story-behind-her-sacking-20180924-p505ok.html
Elizabeth Knight’s take on it is more credible.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/guthrie-s-messy-departure-shows-abc-more-dangerous-than-murdoch-20180924-p505pm.html
In a strong defence of the organisation Jenna Price says Guthrie was a victim of her own lack of understanding of the ABC’s purpose.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/guthrie-s-morale-boost-fail-was-last-straw-for-miserable-abc-staff-20180924-p505p2.html
Karl Quinn explains what a tough gig Guthrie had.
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/apart-from-the-roads-what-did-michelle-guthrie-ever-do-for-us-20180924-p505p6.html
The AFR says that the ABC board was concerned that Guthrie wasn’t committed to an ambitious plan for the nation’s television and radio heritage.
https://www.outline.com/vH5Vwh
Joh McDuling tells us about Justin Milne, the man who sealed Guthrie’s fate. It’s hardly a ringing endorsement!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/justin-milne-the-man-who-sealed-guthrie-s-fate-20180924-p505o4.html
Jacqui Maley reckons Guthrie would have seen it coming.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/michelle-guthrie-and-canberra-diplomacy-20180924-p505pn.html
Michelle Pini looks at the Morrison/Murdoch connection in the sacking.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/michelle-guthries-sudden-abc-exit-and-the-morrison–murdoch-connection,11927
Quentin Dempster explores whether or not there was a political motive behind the Michelle Guthrie sacking.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/09/24/political-motive-michelle-guthrie/
This Professor of Journalism (and former Head of ABC TV News and Current Affairs) writes that despite her good intentions, Michelle Guthrie was never the right fit for the ABC.
https://theconversation.com/despite-her-good-intentions-michelle-guthrie-was-never-the-right-fit-for-the-abc-103755
Michael Koziol reports that Guthrie is considering suing the ABC over her dismissal.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/devastated-sacked-abc-boss-michelle-guthrie-threatens-to-sue-over-unjustified-termination-20180924-p505mt.html
Peter Hartcher writes that the actions of China are driving Australia into Trump’s arms.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-china-is-driving-australia-and-trump-into-each-other-s-arms-20180924-p505mr.html
A week before the deadline for Kenneth Hayne’s interim report on misconduct in financial services it is clear that grandfathered trailing commissions are headed for the chop.
https://www.outline.com/vB2mFb
John Passant has written that PM Scott Morrison is the removalist — removing anything that might stop the Coalition retaining Government at the next election, or, at least, the things that could turn the defeat into a rout.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/prime-minister-morrison-the-removalist,11925
Nicole Hasham tells us how Kristina Keneally is getting under the government’s skin over her “witch hunt” on the GBRF.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/environment-minister-melissa-price-attacks-kristina-keneally-over-reef-witch-hunt-20180924-p505oe.html
Stephen Bartholomeusz explains why the global economy is getting more vulnerable.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/dangerous-divergence-why-the-global-economy-is-getting-more-vulnerable-20180924-p505md.html
The SMH editorial says that rather than focusing exclusively on the divisive issue of migration, Mr Morrison should start talking about the federal government’s role in managing urban development.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/planning-is-the-answer-to-sydney-s-crowding-20180924-p505lp.html
According to Phil Coorey the Turnbull government was contemplating extra funding for some public schools in order to soften the blowback after giving extra money to Catholic and non-government schools.
https://www.outline.com/eMkxp8
The charter plane that crashed into a DFO shopping centre near the Essendon airport killing five people was doomed as soon as it got airborne after the pilot skipped a pre-flight safety checklist. Looks like pilot error 1.01.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/pilot-error-at-fault-in-essendon-dfo-plane-crash-report-finds-20180923-p505hw.html
ME Bank chief executive Jamie McPhee expects house prices to edge lower for up to two years following several years of strong growth in the major metropolitan markets of Melbourne and Sydney, but says there’s no reason to panic.
https://www.outline.com/g98pqt
Confusion surrounds the future of Rod Rosenstein, the official overseeing the probe into Russian election meddling.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-deputy-attorney-general-rosenstein-expected-to-leave-job-20180925-p505rh.html
The head of the Catholic Education Commission of Victoria has expressed regret that Simon Birmingham lost his portfolio over schools funding reforms, appearing to take credit for ousting the education minister.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/24/victorias-catholic-education-head-appears-to-claim-credit-for-ministers-scalp
Thanks to Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s principled dedication to socialism for the rich, Catholic and independent schools will no longer flounder with only two or three playing fields per campus.
https://newmatilda.com/2018/09/24/pm-grants-4-6-billion-needs-based-funding-schools-need-equestrian-centres/
Alexandra Smith reports that Gladys has engineered some deals to quell the party’s internal conflagration.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/ray-williams-emerges-the-winner-as-warring-mps-strike-a-deal-20180924-p505qv.html
Greg Jericho takes a close look at the outlook for housing prices in the major cities.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/sep/24/should-we-worry-about-a-crash-of-the-housing-market-lets-all-take-a-deep-breath
Oil prices have jumped more than 3 per cent to a four-year high above $US80 a barrel after Saudi Arabia and Russia ruled out any immediate increase in production.
https://www.outline.com/vnTcZX
Arwa Mahdavi writes that the president of the United States has sent women the worst message: that there is no point telling people about your assault because you won’t be believed
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/24/trump-why-i-didnt-report-it
The pharmaceutical industry is engaging vast numbers of lobbyists and donating millions to both political parties, creating a level of influence that a former health department secretary has linked to Australia’s high medicine prices.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/25/pharmaceutical-industry-donates-millions-to-both-australian-political-parties
This could be a significant breakthrough in the fight against malaria.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/gene-engineering-wipes-out-entire-mosquito-population-in-lab-test-20180925-p505rl.html
A previous “Arsehole of the Week” nomination collects some jail time.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/jail-over-killing-of-eagles-in-a-victorian-first-20180924-p505r4.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe farewells Guthrie.




Peter Broelman sees Guthrie off.
Johannes Leak puts the boot in.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0cc5a18289d39198b84ffebcee9e075c
John Shakespeare might be close to the mark here.
Paul Zanetti is suggesting that Mesma’s a little out of touch with common people.
More in here.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-september-25-2008-20180924-h15tbb.html
Trump’s entire presidency is threatened by one document Rosenstein signed — which explains why he has to go
A heavily-redacted document signed by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein could be the key to Donald Trump’s increasing attacks against him.
As Mark Sumner of Daily Kos wrote, Rosenstein’s order authorizing Robert Mueller to expand his probe into former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort likely contains language allowing the special counsel to investigate the president’s business dealings.
“Trump not only wants Rosenstein out—he wants to make Rosenstein part of his Deep State/Drain the Swamp/They’re all out to get me narrative,” Sumner wrote. “He wants it immediately. Because this thing is slipping away from him by the hour, and he knows it.”
The results of Mueller’s expanded investigation have already shaken Trump to his core, the writer noted.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/09/trumps-entire-presidency-threatened-one-document-rosenstein-signed-explains-go/
“The Strategy Was to Try and Do Something Really Big”: Trump Wanted to Nuke Rosenstein to Save Kavanaugh’s Bacon
But Trump allies are privately imploring him to cut Kavanaugh loose to save Republicans’ electoral chances in the midterms.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/09/trump-wanted-to-nuke-rosenstein-to-save-kavanaughs-bacon
Will Kerryn Phelps shameless stunt-a-thon succeed? Probably. Her latest…
The #ABC is one of our most precious public institutions. We need our publicly funded independent broadcaster to ensure media diversity, free of political or commercial interference. An independent and properly funded ABC is the voice of Australia. We must fight for its future
Sprocket_
I think in the USA these are called “Mom and apple pie” speeches. Slightly lacking in detail as to how she intends to do this.
And it appears the NSW Liberal Party are all happy families again..
NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet humiliatingly has backed down from his preselection challenge to Disability Minister Ray Williams in a bid to save Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s government after four days of vicious Liberal turmoil.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/09/24/political-motive-michelle-guthrie/
Some total dills at the ABC are complaining that Guthrie didn’t talk to them enough, etc etc. Quentin Dempster shows what idiots they are. Talking about turkeys voting for Christmas.
Yeah, but not as important as protecting wealthy pensioners….
Sprocket_ @ #13 Tuesday, September 25th, 2018 – 7:04 am
Because servile waste of political space, Damian Tudehope, has agreed to step aside in Epping for Perrottet. Thus has he been gifted an Upper House seat for his services.
Since there are clearly at least two of us here with the “Michael” moniker, I’ll go by “Michael 2”, since I’m probably more recent to this blog.
Morning all. So the Liberals have had their ScumMo bounce? Sorry but sometimes I have to wonder how much attention voters are paying. A reportedly talentless, political ladder climber, who spent his time as treasurer lowering real wages, stabbed his boss in the back while he was watching Dutton, and demonises refugees to deflect attention from failed immigration and infrastructure policies, is the new great white hope? And a far right religious zealot to cap it off. People, dont be taken in by the ScumMo grin.
Thanks BK. I do not doubt Guthrie had flaws, but nor do I believe the stated reasons for her sacking. The current government would more likely give her a bonus for lowering ABC staff morale.
Im convinced Morrisson could eat a baby live in front of the cameras, and a month later the polls will still drift back towards the coalition.
Whack!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/fix-our-health-system-a-labor-mp-s-stinging-response-to-the-premier-s-polite-card-20180924-p505os.html
Gippslander
Now you are reverting to your old ways. Just what is the basis for your extreme distaste for Mr Shorten? Is there some personal dispute?.In any case, it would be more seemly to restrain your outbursts to (e.g.) spitting in his general direction.
Rex and Wayne are boring in their monomania, but you are boxing the compass in your implacable abuse.
_______________________
My last post on Shorten was kind of a parody on my dislike of the man, but that dislike is real and for the following reasons.
1. negotiated deals with companies that put money into the pockets of the AWU and members on their rolls, sometimes with adverse outcomes for workers.
2. took a round the world trip on R.Pratt’s private plane to S.America, Easter Island and Cuba. Worth hundreds of thousands while the AWU were negotiating for workers at VISY. This only came out because Jeannie Pratt mentioned it in 2011 I believe.
3. Used the Beaconsfield disaster as a personal platform for self promotion.
4. Knifed Rudd and Gillard because it was advantageous to his ambitions. A successful Rudd or Gillard government would have probably cost him the chance of being PM.
5. A sense that Shorten is only interested in Shorten.
Socrates
I would say that the Board and the govt are equally responsible for the ABC omnishambles. The Board has been stacked with right wingers pretty ignorant about public broadcasting. And then there’s Mitch and Malcolm (and Abetz).
Lizzie
Agreed. Plus the government has set up the low staff morale. They wanted a transformed ABC, and the new platforms would cost money. Yet budgets were fixed or even cut, so existing staff and functions had to go. So implementing policy was bound to make Guthrie unpopular. Boards always bring in external managers when they want to make deep cuts.
And in one post, nath, proves beyond a reasonable doubt his unreasonable bias against Bill Shorten. Blocked.
Btw, no one who was actually at Beaconsfield agrees with you, nath.
nath
1. incorrect.
2. sounds like it was a gift to his then-wife – she was the one with the connection to the Pratts.
3. no. He was the union leader, and the request that he be the spokesperson came from the families of the men concerned.
4. No. The movement to knife Rudd started with the Victorian Left (and a VL member replaced him). Shorten was one of the last to come on board when it came to reinstating Rudd. His vote was decisive, true, but he was not an instigator.
5. If Shorten was only interested in Shorten, he would have taken the same path in life as his twin brother, who has done very well in business.
This seems to me to be the most knowledgeable assessment of Guthrie/ABC. Hint: the writer is Peter Manning, Adjunct Professor of Journalism, University of Technology Sydney.
https://theconversation.com/despite-her-good-intentions-michelle-guthrie-was-never-the-right-fit-for-the-abc-103755
Big A Adrian
What we are seeing here is the ‘give the guy a fair go, at least he seems to be trying’ factor.
I’m not sure where the live babies bit comes from – at the moment, Morrison has bent over backwards to prove he isn’t a live baby eater but a warm and cuddly daggy dad.
The crucial thing to note is that, after several years in the full glare of the public, in positions of power, he has left virtually no imprint on the mind of voters.
Although this helps him at the moment – he has a relatively clean slate to write on – it’s an indicator of how totally unimpressive he is.
At least people know who Shorten is!
Morrison has form with collectivising the good and disavowing bad news. That’s his thing, and it’s trite and meaningless, and whatever thin veneer of credit he might think he’s acquiring, it’ll wash off quick smart once dinky electioneering starts. As John Passant writes (thanks BK), he’s out to clear the decks of trouble, but the trouble is stuff the voters want dealt with, not sanitised away.
Yesterday, doing his hokey blokey hivis schtick at Sydney’s western airport sod turning, we get this sort of too clever by half bullshit : ‘this is the greatest thing since *we* built the harbour bridge’.
We as in lifters not leaners, god fearing Christians, whities having a go, that sort of we.
Well I haven’t called him Scummo or anything as stupid or juvenile as that.
zoomster
says:
Tuesday, September 25, 2018 at 7:42 am
nath
1. incorrect.
___________
That the AWU took cash payments from many companies is a matter of record.
Itza,
Exactly. This sort of ‘we’ is the sort he is trying to drag away from Labor:
zoomster
4. No. The movement to knife Rudd started with the Victorian Left (and a VL member replaced him). Shorten was one of the last to come on board when it came to reinstating Rudd. His vote was decisive, true, but he was not an instigator.
_______________________________________
Sounds like Feeney was doing the leg work for Shorten against Rudd but Shorten moved in quickly when it mattered.
_______________________________
For months, a group of Labor senators who did not like Kevin Rudd had been meeting regularly for dinner.
On Tuesday night, the location was La Capanna restaurant in Kingston. Senators David Feeney, Steve Hutchins and Mark Bishop were among those at the table.
At 9.30am on Wednesday, Senator Feeney, from the Victorian Right, and Mark Arbib, from the NSW Right, asked Gillard to challenge.
Bill Shorten, the Victorian Right MP, had approached Gillard the week before and asked her to stand. He saw her again on Wednesday.
By late afternoon, after question time, momentum was building but had not reached critical mass. The Left was oblivious to what was going on and the traditional heavyweights such as Senator Faulkner were out of the loop, but Senator Arbib was working the NSW Right. By early evening, most of the faction had swung behind Gillard.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/change-came-even-faster-than-the-plotters-knew-20100624-z3pf.html
No wonder women are up against it. So many men have no respect for them. Especially powerful, White, so-called Christian men in positions of power and influence:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2018/09/23/the-republican-party-has-laid-itself-bare/?utm_term=.fc0cd61306b8
Feeney and shorten were factional rivals
You are a moron
Honestly at this stage a miracle would have to occur for Labor to lose the election.
Anyway Scott Morrison’s attempts to appease the conservatives and moderates in the Liberal Party is going to fail. Because the former have been infected increasingly with Trumpism, to deal with that sort of ideology you need to either fully support or oppose it.
When Gillard suggested that in fairness a spill should be declared so that the MPs could vote on their choice, Rudd refused, knowing he didn’t have the numbers
I think it’s ridiculous to insist that any one person ‘knifed’ Rudd.
And so with the strains of the Kill Bill soundtrack playing by Nath in the background, I bid PB adieu once more. Have a good day all. Maybe today ScumMo will tell us all how he will raise real wages? I will not hold my breath.
@lizzie
I don’t predict Labor will win the Wentworth by-election, however the chances that Dr Phelps wins the Wentworth by-election is increasing by the day. All is needed is the Liberal primary vote to go down below 45%, her to score second place on the primaries and a good preference flow from other candidates.
I wonder how the government is going to put the spin on losing a seat the party has held it’s formation.
Roger
says:
Tuesday, September 25, 2018 at 8:09 am
Feeney and shorten were factional rivals
You are a moron
________________
I wont even comment.
lizzie
says:
Tuesday, September 25, 2018 at 8:14 am
When Gillard suggested that in fairness a spill should be declared so that the MPs could vote on their choice, Rudd refused, knowing he didn’t have the numbers
I think it’s ridiculous to insist that any one person ‘knifed’ Rudd.
__________________
This is a new and potentially ground breaking theory. No one knifed Rudd, it was just a vote out of the blue by Gillard ‘in fairness’ to spill a first term PM just so that everyone could ‘vote on their choice’. Nothing fairer, just a harmless hands up, who wants to be milk monitor?
It’s interesting how the troll never mentions the virtually Morrisonesque role his supposed hero, ‘Albo’, played in the ‘knifing’ of Julia Gillard in favour of Rudd 2.0
Can’t taint the KillBill narrative with the truth, can we?
C@tmomma
says:
Tuesday, September 25, 2018 at 8:24 am
It’s interesting how the troll never mentions the virtually Morrisonesque role his supposed hero, ‘Albo’, played in the ‘knifing’ of Julia Gillard in favour of Rudd 2.0
Can’t taint the KillBill narrative with the truth, can we?
__________________________
Albo stayed loyal to Rudd from go to woe.
Good Morning
Read the Independent Australia article.
Its a great alternative view to the boosting the other media are giving to Morrison and I think closer to the reality
I apologise for my contribution to the nath-inspired conversation. Not because I’m wrong, but because I shouldn’t encourage him in his trolling.
Thanks, AntonB.
This is probably the most accurate view of the Guthrie execution. Expect a massive purge at the ABC before the election campaign starts. Morrison is right about Trump and himself being alike.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/09/24/political-motive-michelle-guthrie/
“Some total dills at the ABC are complaining that Guthrie didn’t talk to them enough, etc etc. Quentin Dempster shows what idiots they are. Talking about turkeys voting for Christmas.”
Kavanaugh and Republicans are digging in, convinced it’s all just a smear campaign.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-fantastic-fantastic-man-trump-showers-praise-on-kavanaugh-in-new-radio-interview/2018/09/24/d6a7c39c-bfe0-11e8-9005-5104e9616c21_story.html?utm_term=.9e1b48366b10