BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

Labor remains deep in landslide territory on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, despite the moderating impact of this week’s Ipsos poll.

Ipsos provided the one new poll for the week in its monthly outing for the Fairfax papers, and it raised a few eyebrows with its weak primary vote for Labor and extraordinarily strong result for the Greens, the latter exacerbating a long established peculiarity of this pollster. The poll’s addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate takes a certain amount of edge off the recent blowout to Labor, while still finding them on course for a victory of historic dimensions. The BludgerTrack seat projection has Labor down three on last week’s result, with Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia each moving one seat in the Coalition’s favour. The methodological caveats about BludgerTrack from last week’s post continue to apply, as does the fact that I won’t be updating the leadership ratings until the model has a solid enough base of Morrison-era data to work from. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

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  1. As for how will Uni students be identified- the new ‘anti terrorist’ facial recognition software…police take a few pics of a crowd and 5 minutes later they have a list of names…

    We all know this type of thing is coming..

  4. Good Morning

    On Gillard. Mr Newbie has a point as seen from outside the party by the LGBTI community at the time. However the reason LGBTI community did not exile the Labor party into the same box as the LNP is Labor did not pass the marriage act amendment Howard did to thwart the Labor run ACT government.

    Labor did pass significant reforms to legislation I think 5868 was the clumsy way it was told to the community. This was in fact while Rudd was Prime Minister. The PM who also when in power opposed Marriage Equality.

    So yes it was political. It was called out as such at the time of the National Conference when as BB puts it Gillard was boxed in. I agree with him on that sentence. It was such a stark contrast to the stance of Gillard and Labor on Child Abuse, Indigenous Rights, NDIS etc.

    Bill Shorten fixed all that bad blood and undid it very fast when he stood up. See reaction to Mr Shorten marching in Mardi Gras to see how the LGBTI community reacted.
    The Greens did not get the loudest cheers from the crowd this year of the political parties.
    The significance of Labor doing something was recognised and still is.

    Like Asylum Seekers I don’t think Gillard wanted to be where she was. Its an inditement on the politics of the time that she found herself in that position. Its great progress to recognise that the Labor party has moved and to also recognise that the fight was reaching a peak at that Labor conference and was the penultimate try at changing policy.

    The politics was changed and the next time succeeded.

  6. Tehan’s idea in practice:

    * I’m planning a protest. I tell the Uni it’s OK, I’m providing the security. I instruct my security detail to leave all my protesters alone, but block the people I’m protesting against from entering…

    * I turn up to a night club. It’s full. The bouncer charges me for his services in turning me away…

  8. The truth never matters to Liberals who want to win an election on fear.

    Rowan‏ @FightingTories · 9h9 hours ago

    The Victorian Crime Statistics Agency (CSA) on Thursday released figures showing the overall crime rate fell 7 per cent per 100,000 Victorians to 5921.9, the lowest since 2014-15.

  9. Scott Morrison will prove to be no great herder of chooks. From Bronte, the single minded plodder, with very little life experience will quickly find the role of leadership within the Liberal party somewhat beyond his capabilities.
    Finding out about his lack of ability seems to have been the one consistent characteristic throughout his career. The PMship will very soon endorse this generally held opinion.
    Morrison’s efforts so far show him to be both disloyal and opportunistic, both necessary required traits within the Federal Liberal party.
    It is the dopey decisions which are most prominent in his PMship. Education just needs another dopey handout and then hope blindly that the recipients get on board. And the vision Morrison has regarding climate change is breathtaking. Morrison is closing his eyes and hoping if all goes away.
    Morrison’s parliamentary peers don’t regard or respect him. They have plonked their last money down on the mat as if in a two up game, full of bravado and wishful thinking.
    The reality is that the voting public know what Morrison’s parliamentary colleagues already know. The Federal LNP will be tossed out a the next election and the fact that Morrison and his colleagues will draw it out for an eternity is the hallmark of the Federal LNP.
    Morrison has one shot at delivering a show of honesty, fairness and integrity. Call an election.

  10. Labor setting the agenda again. Political discussion on gender pay gaps.

    To make the point in the political discussion on the ABC they played Sir Humphrey the feminist clip from Yes Minister/PM

  11. Thanks, Liberals.

    Australia has tumbled down a major global index of “social progress”, hampered by unreliable power supply, unequal access to health and education and our treatment of refugees.

    The index, compiled by a US non-profit organisation and supported by Deloitte, also rated Australia poorly on environmental quality — particularly our emissions of carbon dioxide per capita and biome protection — and on concentration of power among the wealthy.

    Altogether, Australia fell six places in the past 12 months to rank 15th on the Social Progress Index, which was topped by Norway. It is the second year in a row Australia has taken a hit — just two years ago it was ranked fourth.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australia-tumbles-down-global-rankings-on-social-progress-for-second-year-in-a-row-20180919-p504tt.html

  12. lizzie @ #2061 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:32 am

    Thanks, Liberals.

    Australia has tumbled down a major global index of “social progress”, hampered by unreliable power supply, unequal access to health and education and our treatment of refugees.

    The index, compiled by a US non-profit organisation and supported by Deloitte, also rated Australia poorly on environmental quality — particularly our emissions of carbon dioxide per capita and biome protection — and on concentration of power among the wealthy.

    Altogether, Australia fell six places in the past 12 months to rank 15th on the Social Progress Index, which was topped by Norway. It is the second year in a row Australia has taken a hit — just two years ago it was ranked fourth.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australia-tumbles-down-global-rankings-on-social-progress-for-second-year-in-a-row-20180919-p504tt.html

    Yet to read this, but the NBN fawkup is surely one the most socially regressive things these luddites and retrogrades have inflicted on us.

  13. “https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/you-protest-you-pay-education-minister-s-bid-to-bolster-free-speech-at-universities-20180921-p5057h.html

    Does this bolster free speech? Or shut it down? Perhaps Tehan will be questioned on this by Cassidy this morning.”

    Shut it down. Some university admins will use it as a device to head off any kind of protest if they are the ones that make the decision as to whether security attends a gathering or not. Easy to send a bill to the Union if the admins decide to send 10 security guards to a protest gathering outside the ref.

  14. Pegasus @ #1598 Saturday, September 22nd, 2018 – 3:01 pm

    Katharine Murphy on asylum seeker children:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/22/morrison-is-a-leader-in-a-hurry-but-not-to-end-the-disgrace-of-nauru

    Morrison attempted to provide an answer this week, saying he wasn’t prepared to do anything that would weaken the border protection regime. But the fact of the matter is the federal court is intervening to protect some of these children, and Australia, last time I looked, is not being overrun with would-be asylum seekers.

    We need to be very clear what is happening on our watch, even if it is happening largely out of sight.

    These are children, who have committed no crime, who are suffering as a consequence of a policy mandated by the Australian government. Children, wanting to die, wanting to harm themselves. Kids on hunger strikes. A 14-year-old boy with muscle wastage so severe he might never walk again.

    It’s unconscionable. It’s disgraceful.

    It’s a stain on the soul of the country, and it needs to end.

    Isn’t it disgusting so many Liberal and Labor partisans don’t care – just look away and walk past.

  15. Phelps and the AMA rightly condemning Liberal and Labor for their disgusting ignorance of the torture and harm to asylum seekers in our offshore internments.

    This country is a disgrace.

  16. Rex

    Labor has been on the front foot about Asylum Seekers.

    They have been posting twitter memes about that boat statue as hard as the Greens have.

    They have not walked past that standard.

    While I agree Labor should have been doing much more sooner I welcome the Labor people piling on about the hypocrisy.

    The politics has changed and you need to change too. Recognise that change and encourage more of it from Labor.

  17. Could it be 51/49 and if so, a snap election called?

    Don’t let the stories fool you that the LNP are broke – they couldn’t be with all the revenue streams they have available to them. But it helps to say so because it heaps disdain on the ALP-union funding connection.

    With all the Free media coverage (and even free ads) plus Govt. money spinning their stories the LNP have a massive advantage if they are even close to the ALP leading into an election.

    If there is an election, I predict it will be as short a campaign as possible this time.

  18. Tony Abbott really drove the Liberal Party’s opposition to a conscience vote on SSM marriage. Plus Malcolm Turnbull owed his position as Liberal Leader to those who liked message coming from Tony Abbott, however not Tony Abbott himself.

    I seriously believe If Tony Abbott had not been Liberal Leader, the Liberal Party would have allowed a conscience vote on SSM and it would have passed earlier this decade no doubt.

    @guytaur

    I don’t expect much change from a Shorten Government concerning the asylum seeker issue. Especially if the Liberals in opposition head down a Trumpian direction who will advocate at least towing boats these people come in back to Indonesia.

  20. Serious point. The tendency for the right wingers to blindly believe is their greatest weakness. Call it being “out of touch” but its fundamentally about actually believing that their ideas are correct and everyone else should reward them for punishing and straightening.

    Its why I expect ScoMo to do something entirely Stupid, just like Hockey did. Its because he really believes in his sick view of the world.

    Its a shame the media tends to see things in terms of supposedly clever game playing, rather than understanding the behaviour of people like this in terms of ignorance and blind ideology.

  21. guytaur @ #2064 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:41 am

    Rex

    Labor has been on the front foot about Asylum Seekers.

    They have been posting twitter memes about that boat statue as hard as the Greens have.

    They have not walked past that standard.

    While I agree Labor should have been doing much more sooner I welcome the Labor people piling on about the hypocrisy.

    The politics has changed and you need to change too. Recognise that change and encourage more of it from Labor.

    ‘front foot’ ?

    give me a spell Guytaur

  22. Rex

    It may have escaped your notice but the LNP is the government not Labor.

    I have my problems with Labor which is why I have put Greens first in voting. However I always preference Labor for exactly the reason that the LNP are the right wing loonies trying to drag us backwards all the time.

    Marriage Equality is a perfect example. A Labor/Greens government moved to have Marriage equality a decade ago. Howard rushed legislation through parliament to stop it.

    The villains of the piece are easy to see from my point of view.

  25. Linked earlier, but worth a look for a non-NewsCorpse accounting of the Shire Liar’s background. The article also covers his preselection, roles in tourism organisations, and religious conversion and views on SSM. A snippet..

    ““At our club meetings I remember very well this guy who would just hang around and I recall approaching him to find out who he was and who he supported. The University of New South Wales Liberal Club was almost non existent and so that’s how I met Scott Morrison.”

    Our source said his first impression of Morrison was of a badly dressed dweeb with little political skill and even less charisma.

    “I remember he dressed like an old man – I was 21 and so he would have been about 23 at the time,” he recalled.

    “He would come to uni wearing baggy brown corduroy pants and drab office-like shirts.

    “He was always very quiet and wouldn’t say a word unless you spoke to him. He was shy and awkward. I thought he was just some lonely kid from UNSW who needed company. He never spoke to any motions, he never got involved with anything – all he did was slink around our meetings.

    “Did you see him this month putting the parliament video to that rap song? Now, that was a little window into his silly mind.”

    Morrison has since said he likes listening to Tina Arena, and that sleazy 2am urban club tracks celebrating anal sex aren’t on his personal music playlist.

    During the couple of years that he knew Morrison through Liberal Party activities, our source claims no-one would have ever picked him out as a future leader.

    “The fact he has gone on to become Prime Minister I find bizarre as he has zero charisma, zero social skills, zero anything – nobody would have picked him as a future anything,” the former Liberal club president said.

    “Looking back, I saw a number of rising stars from our group – one went on to be a Chief of Staff in Canberra, another went on to be very senior at Qantas – and these two examples were very engaged and erudite at the time.

    “But Scott Morrison never gave a speech, he just lurked in the background with this smug sheepish look on his face.”

    https://truecrimenewsweekly.com/i-knew-pm-scott-morrison-at-uni-and-he-was-a-dickhead-former-liberal-party-insider-spills-beans-on-zero-talent-weirdo/

  26. Morning all.

    Kavanaugh is being prepped by WH aides and Republicans for his appearance before the Senate judiciary committee on Ford’s allegations. Supposing this report is accurate, the more one hears about him, the more one wonders at his suitability for the Supreme Court.

    In his answers during the practice runs, aides said, Kavanaugh condemned sexual assault and carefully avoided seeming to discredit Christine Blasey Ford, a psychology professor in Northern California who has accused the nominee of pinning her to a bed, groping her and putting his hand over her mouth to stifle her screams as he tried to take off her clothes at a drunken high school party in the early 1980s.

    But Kavanaugh grew frustrated when it came to questions that dug into his private life, particularly his drinking habits and his sexual proclivities, according to three people familiar with the preparations, who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. He declined to answer some questions altogether, saying they were too personal, these people said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/incredibly-frustrated-inside-the-gop-effort-to-save-kavanaugh-amid-assault-allegation/2018/09/22/6808baf6-bde0-11e8-b7d2-0773aa1e33da_story.html?utm_term=.6928b0ef1986

  27. BK

    I just read it and was going to link it. Morrison isn’t accruing much approval, is he… 🙂

    It’s interesting to note the Prime Ministers that have had the strongest relationship with churches – Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison – have displayed the least amount of generosity and religious spirit in their political deliberations, both having selective hearing when it comes to public policy on social issues and displaying the most appalling and destructive behaviours seen in Canberra; Tony Abbott during his time as leader of the Liberal Party between 2009–15; Scott Morrison during his time as Minister for Immigration and Treasurer.

  28. Australia has tumbled down a major global index of “social progress”

    Something else to thank the Liberals for. I wonder what changed after 2012 ? Happy days for spivs.

    Transparency international world corruption index
    2012 Australia Ranked 7 Score 85
    2018 Australia Ranked 13 Score 77

  29. Thanks for that BK. I often remark on the hypocrisy of religious folk and that they often display behaviours and attitudes completely at odds with their supposed faith.

  33. Rex

    To be clear the reason AS policy politics is changing is because the Democrats have done as the Greens here have done.

    Bette Midler tweets

    Trump admin taking $260M from cancer research/AIDS treatment to jail more immigrant kids. I’m sure the guy who decided to take money
    meant to help people & used it to hurt kids instead,
    totally got a promotion.

    My point is Labor is seeing the political winds and have leaped on them.
    They certainly did not hold back in supporting Adam Bandt in Parliament on his motion of no confidence in Dutton.

    High stakes throw of the dice with the media spotlight on the issue. Dutton could not hide behind national security boats or anything else. This is how the politics has changed and it needs to be recognised.

    Labor has finally got it. They don’t need to be scared of the Boats Boats Boats call from the right. Trump, Hanson Anning have pained the canvas for Labor to work from and they are using that change with no hesitation

  35. guytaur @ #2081 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:56 am

    Rex

    To be clear the reason AS policy politics is changing is because the Democrats have done as the Greens here have done.

    Bette Midler tweets

    Trump admin taking $260M from cancer research/AIDS treatment to jail more immigrant kids. I’m sure the guy who decided to take money
    meant to help people & used it to hurt kids instead,
    totally got a promotion.

    My point is Labor is seeing the political winds and have leaped on them.
    They certainly did not hold back in supporting Adam Bandt in Parliament on his motion of no confidence in Dutton.

    High stakes throw of the dice with the media spotlight on the issue. Dutton could not hide behind national security boats or anything else. This is how the politics has changed and it needs to be recognised.

    Labor has finally got it. They don’t need to be scared of the Boats Boats Boats call from the right. Trump, Hanson Anning have pained the canvas for Labor to work from and they are painting with no hesitation.

    Labor set the hell holes up and have been invisible on the inhumane treatment ever since. That’s the truth !!

    Lib-Lab disgust me.

  36. Rex

    I agree Labor have been too silent for some years. Now however they are speaking up and I recognise that even if you don’t.

    I welcome it. Its the start of the end of the LNP race baiting White Australia immigration policy.

    Its noteworthy Trump’s GOP has been using the Open Borders argument in his immigration debate and losing to the Democrats.

    That has changed the world debate on immigration politics as Brexit sinks into chaos. Germany has not erupted into a crime ridden hell hole and the world sees it.

  43. Barney in Go Dau @ #2089 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 9:09 am

    Rex Douglas @ #2084 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 6:01 am

    …

    Labor set the hell holes up and have been invisible on the inhumane treatment ever since. That’s the truth !!

    Lib-Lab disgust me.

    The fact that you can distinguish no difference between the two just highlights how flawed your opinion is. 🙂

    Labor sets up inhumane offshore internments. Liberals maintain these inhumane internments. Labor are invisible on the inhumane management.
    Very easy to distinguish.

  49. Rob Stokes has made Dan Tehan look really stupid on Insiders. That might explain the extortionate tone in Tehan’s answer to Barrie Cassidy’s perfectly good question about exactly what Tehan can say to Stokes to get NSW to drop their opposition to the sweetheart deal for religious schools.

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