BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

Labor remains deep in landslide territory on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, despite the moderating impact of this week’s Ipsos poll.

Ipsos provided the one new poll for the week in its monthly outing for the Fairfax papers, and it raised a few eyebrows with its weak primary vote for Labor and extraordinarily strong result for the Greens, the latter exacerbating a long established peculiarity of this pollster. The poll’s addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate takes a certain amount of edge off the recent blowout to Labor, while still finding them on course for a victory of historic dimensions. The BludgerTrack seat projection has Labor down three on last week’s result, with Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia each moving one seat in the Coalition’s favour. The methodological caveats about BludgerTrack from last week’s post continue to apply, as does the fact that I won’t be updating the leadership ratings until the model has a solid enough base of Morrison-era data to work from. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

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  1. Thanks William. ScumMo will be lucky to see anything as good as 53:47 if his current approach continues. He has promised to “Turn back the Strawberries” with his big new policy focus. Meanwhile he asks us all not to obsess over the little things like houseprices, debt, stagnating wages, climate change, energy prices, rampant corruption, misogeny, racism, religious zealots, inequity and banks and insurers breaking the law with impunity. Under ScumMo, we are a lucky country.

  2. Murdoch and his editors should be tried for treason ( if it exists).

    Farkquits of the highest order.

    Murdoch should not be allowed to own papers in this country. It is a disgrace and I have had a gutful.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Crowe has the drum that Turnbull lodged a complaint directly with Murdoch over News Ltd and Sky News coverage in last days of his prime ministership.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-lodged-complaint-with-murdoch-over-coverage-in-last-days-of-his-prime-ministership-20180919-p504rd.html
    John Warhurst reckons that in the next six months we will see either the best or worst of politics.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/six-months-of-best-or-worst-politics-20180918-p504hy.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz explains how National Australia Bank has provided the first insight into what bank remuneration schemes might look like in the wake of reforms to bank executives’ accountability prompted by the wave of finance sector scandals. It should make it much harder for bad behaviour to be rewarded.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/nab-pay-revamp-makes-it-much-harder-to-reward-bad-behaviour-20180919-p504q7.html
    Nikki Savva laments Liberal women , the new forgotten people.
    https://outline.com/EBCfsW
    David Crowe examines the Senate repot on Dutton and the au pairs. You’d have to say the Coalition’s dissenting report is more like a whinge than a rebuttal. Parliament could be interesting today.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/senate-splits-on-peter-dutton-au-pair-inquiry-20180919-p504t7.html
    Michelle Grattan also has a look at the report and how the spotlight returns to illuminate Dutton.
    https://theconversation.com/dutton-back-in-spotlight-after-split-senate-report-on-au-pair-affair-103552
    Fergus Hunter reveals that the Coalition government secretly proposed a $660 million boost to welfare payments in its failed efforts to secure Senate crossbench support for tax cuts for large companies, even offering senators the opportunity to claim credit for the rare increase.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-government-s-secret-660-million-offer-to-crossbenchers-during-company-tax-cut-negotiations-20180919-p504m5.html
    Karen Maley tells us how yesterday’s royal commission hearing showed how consumers in a car dealership are sitting ducks.
    https://outline.com/kjsJdD
    More than a thousand bank customers have unwittingly downloaded malicious banking apps impersonating legitimate ANZ and Commonwealth Bank apps from the Google Play store.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/banking/cba-and-anz-caught-in-fake-banking-apps-scam-20180919-p504si.html
    Michael Koziol tells us how when in Canberra, Scott Morrison surrounds himself with things that mean a lot to him: God, his beloved Cronulla Sharks, and a reminder that he stopped the boats.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-stopped-these-boats-books-and-balls-inside-the-office-of-prime-minister-scott-morrison-20180919-p504p5.html
    Noel Towell looks at how Matthew Guy has locked himself into the crime scare tactic. In advance for the election.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/win-lose-or-draw-crime-pays-for-guy-20180919-p504qy.html
    Ken Henry finds Trump’s trade war “deeply concerning”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/deeply-disturbing-ken-henry-s-warning-on-trump-s-trade-war-20180919-p504ov.html
    Jess Irvine looks at what the trade war could mean for us. She says we could be in for a bumpy ride she says.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/what-donald-trump-s-trade-war-with-china-means-for-you-20180919-p504r2.html
    Telstra chief executive Andy Penn is aggressively looking to mitigate energy costs that have slashed earnings by $200 million over the past two years as the telco is readying to build out Australia’s ultra-fast next generation 5G mobile network.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/telstra-s-power-bill-shock-energy-costs-jumped-by-200m-in-two-years-20180919-p504p7.html
    Angus Taylor will consider a plan to upgrade the ­efficiency of Australian coal-fired power stations to improve performance, cut emissions and prolong their operating lives, among a suite of options to shore up the ­national power supply.
    https://outline.com/WxXM77
    Energy companies say they’re making good money out of the RET and it’s the government’s fault.
    https://outline.com/zyMGm9
    Alexandra Smith gives Gladys some advice to show leadership on the issue of women in parliament and not wait until it needs crisis management.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-should-see-red-about-shortage-of-liberal-women-20180919-p504qk.html
    The SMH editorial is concerned that the Shooters and Fishers Party is dictating environmental policy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/shooters-party-must-not-dictate-policy-20180919-p504p3.html
    Madonna King writes that commercial terrorists have brought an industry to its knees.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/commercial-terrorists-have-brought-an-industry-to-its-knees-20180919-p504su.html
    John Lord wonders that after cutting funding by $1.2 billion, why is the Morrison Government now calling a royal commission into the aged care sector?
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-morrison-governments-aged-care-merry-go-round,11908
    Isabelle Lane explains how six big players are dominating Australia’s scandal-hit aged care sector.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/retirement/2018/09/19/aged-care-profits-players/
    A board director for the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority has been accused of a potential conflict of interest over public funding directed to companies working on crown-of-thorns starfish culling.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/19/great-barrier-reef-marine-park-authority-board-director-accused-of-potential-conflict-of-interest
    As SBS launches a new immigration experimental TV program Jacqui Lambie is about to be sent to one of the most dangerous war zones on earth – but she has no idea where she’s going.
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/mind-wide-open-jacqui-lambie-joins-sbs-immigration-experiment-20180918-p504jc.html
    Sally Whyte has some thoughts on why Home Affairs avoided answering a series of questions about chief information officer Tim Catley until after the senior public servant left the organisation.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/home-affairs-avoids-questions-until-tech-boss-mysteriously-resigns-20180918-p504gz.html
    Rachel Erin from Australian Accident Helpline reports on the alarming number of deaths that have occurred in Australian workplaces so far this year.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/2018-australian-workplace-fatality-statistics-revealed,11907
    Michael Evans is disappointed that the NSW ICAC has missed the chance to call to improve the oversight on NGOs.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/icac-misses-chance-for-oversight-reform-call-on-follow-the-dollar-20180919-p504r0.html
    Richard Dennis writes that the royal commission Australia really needs is one into the spectacular – almost complete – failure of our regulators to protect the vulnerable from the greedy. While it is clear that many of our so-called watchdogs are little more than lap dogs, what is less clear is why. It’s time that Australians found out why those tasked with protecting us from exploitation have wound up protecting those who exploit us.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/19/our-regulators-fail-to-protect-the-vulnerable-from-the-greedy-lets-find-out-why
    This sort of shit needs to be outlawed! (IMHO).
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-medical-practice-sued-over-death-of-diabetic-boy-20180919-p504r4.html
    This former Australian of the Year finalist has fallen off the perch. Big time! We have our own award for her and she is duly nominated.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/tower-of-lies-comes-tumbling-down-around-australian-of-the-year-finalist-20180919-p504rj.html

    Cartoon Corner
    David Rowe with a fresh (fruit) challenge for Morrison.

    Peter Broelman goes to the supermarket.

    A cracker from Paul Zanetti.

    Sean Leahy and Santa ScoMo.

    Jon Kudelka goes to the overcrowded Royal Hobart Hospital.

    And he issues some strawberry health and safety guidelines.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/844dad40cbe05d218d3549621fc9d3e9
    Some good ones in here, especially from Cathy Wilcox.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-september-20-2018-20180919-h15m2m.html

  4. Not sure why ReachTEL are polling Angus Taylor’s safe seat of Hume, but here are the results. Liberal primary drop of 12 points in line with some other polling.

    #ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of Hume 2 Party Preferred: LIB 57 (-3.2 since election) ALP 43 (+3.2) #auspol

    #ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of Hume Primary Votes: LIB 41.8 (-12.0 since election) ALP 26.9 (-4.9) ON 10.4 (+10.4) GRN 6.6 (0.0) Others 14.3 (+6.6) #auspol

  5. Thanks BK. Angus Taylor’s proposal to “upgrade the efficiency” of coal fired power stations is denial driven policy once more. Large coal plants are very complex and designed to operate in a very specific range of conditions, usually for a specific grade of input coal. Modifying them in this manner would cost billions, if possible at all. In some cases it would be virtually a complete rebuild, all for a marginal improvement in performance. A new wind farm would be far cheaper and far cleaner.

    Also, as a resident in a city where the car industry was closed down for being uncompetitive, why should billions of public funds be spent propping up a privately owned uncompetitive industry, when there is a cheaper, more competitive domestic alternative (renewable power)?

  6. BK
    “As SBS launches a new immigration experimental TV program Jacqui Lambie is about to be sent to one of the most dangerous war zones on earth – but she has no idea where she’s going.”

    I hope SBS isn’t going to send Lambie into a Liberal party preselection room? They must know that, as a woman, she will be shown no mercy.

  7. Trouble with the banjo playing Muppets brewing….

    “A bitter battle between National Party politicians and staff is undermining the authority and threatening the leadership of Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister.

    The tension has reached the point where senior figures in the party are openly calling on Michael McCormack to “muscle up” amid frustrations he has been unable to deliver policies his colleagues want the government to adopt.

    The latest flare-up surrounds calls for a special agricultural visa for farm workers, which the government was expected to unveil this week but has since shelved.

    The proposed visa would allow for foreign workers to come to Australia to overcome farm labour shortages.

    Supporters of Mr McCormack have slammed those within their ranks who they allege have led an effort to undermine his authority ever since he unexpectedly became leader.

    The internal dispute over the agricultural visa goes to the heart of the problems engulfing the party”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-20/federal-government-agriculture-visa-sparks-pacific-backlash/10256926

  8. Socrates

    Wasn’t someone in this blog recently describing how they had worked for the company that had been tasked by government a few years ago to restart/restore one of the coal-fired power stations near Collie in WA, a job that cost $300 million, and was ultimately unsuccessful?

    I suppose with Australia’s car industry gone, Angus Taylor could similarly encourage everyone to repair and restore old cars from the 1960s and keep them on the road no matter what the cost in restoration, upkeep, or worse pollution compared to newer vehicles. Then he could tell everyone they just needed to ‘upgrade the efficiency’ of these old cars.

    JasonB

    Thanks for inflation answer – will digest in full later.

  9. Morning all.

    Thanks BK. Savva (and PvO ftm) always have the best Liberal insider goss.

    There were a couple of reasons for Friday night’s empty chair. Abbott’s opponents decided months ago they did not want to turn him into a martyr, nor did they want the prospective chal­lenger — a well-credentialed woman — subjected to the media’s Bullies and Co, who respond venomously to any whiff of criticism of Abbott or their own loopy agendas.

    Liberal women are now caught in a vice. If they complain about bullying, Bullies and Co vilify them for being weak, or wreckers, or liars. If they don’t complain — and let’s be clear, there is a not-so-subtle campaign to bully or shame them into silence — the thugs will continue. Nothing will change.

    If women nominate for preselection and win, they risk accusations they have won only because of their gender. It diminishes their victory and their sense of achievement. If they lose, it’s because they were lousy candidates, not because male powerbrokers were dispensing favours to pets.

    While Savva is spot on re the Liberals’ women problem I have zero sympathy for them. They refuse to introduce quotas, even seeing how effective quotas have been for Labor. It’s like the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over again and expecting a different outcome. They will never reach their goal of 50% female representation in the partyroom by 2025, if anything they are going backwards on that front!

  10. Also Savva did say the Liberals are preselecting their candidate for Eden-Monaro this weekend. Of the three candidates two are women. She named the candidates, mentioning the women won’t thank her for that because they wanted to sail under radar given the commentary about Liberals and women because if either one wins, they face the inevitable remarks that they only won because of their gender.

  11. The freedom of speech on campuses rules the Coalition are considering importing from the US (they’ve got to get ideas from somewhere) state:

    ‘ staff and students “may not obstruct, disrupt, or otherwise interfere with the freedom of others to express views they reject or even loathe”.’

    Apparently that means universities must give a platform to any loony who wants to hire one of their halls – which seems to be denying Universities freedoms of their own.

    If policies like this are adopted, surely that means I’m allowed to rock up to the ABC – likewise, a government funded organisation – and demand that I be given air time to push whatever view I happen to want to, no questions asked?

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/there-s-no-problem-labor-rejects-case-for-new-free-speech-rules-at-universities-20180919-p504p1.html

  12. sprocket_

    The latest flare-up surrounds calls for a special agricultural visa for farm workers, which the government was expected to unveil this week but has since shelved

    I believe the sticking point was the Qld. Nats wanting them to be called Kanaka Visas

  13. Confessions @ #13 Thursday, September 20th, 2018 – 5:36 am

    They will never reach their goal of 50% female representation in the partyroom by 2025, if anything they are going backwards on that front!

    Au contraire. They can easily achieve that when they only 2 members they have in the House of Reps are Julie Bishop and Tony Abbott. Hey presto – 50% representation.

    It’s now up to voters to make sure they achieve that target.

  14. If they are Reachtelling in Taylor’s seat I wonder if they are asking voters if they want meaningful action on reducing GHGEs instead of the do-nothing approach their local member as relevant minister is delivering…

  15. Who or what body actually prepares the crime stats in Victoria. If it is Vic Police I would have zero confidence in the accuracy of the figures and we know we cannot trust the Andrews govt with such matters. Who ensures the stats are free from bias and political interference?

  16. Good Morning

    Thanks BK.

    I think we are seeing the last weeks of the government. Not even Morrison is going to be able to hide under National Security to excuse the Au Pair scandal. He is trying it on but it won’t wash with the public.

    The opprobrium and scandal of this government is way worse than Howard’s government.
    At least with WorkChoices Howard was able to keep the LNP primary vote up. All these polls confirming the LNP is in existential crisis as their base flees to other parties.

    I believe they truly will be in the wilderness for years as they fight over the spoils of losing.
    We will either get the Central Alliance or a merging of another party with that party on their side of politics. We are back to the anti Labor party days for sure when Menzies formed the Liberals.

    The shrillness and desperation is peaking. We now have the public openly discussing billionaire media moguls interfering in the party room. We now have the shrill cries of National Security to cover up a Minister scandal.

    We still have no energy policy. We still have a government for the big end of town.

    The voters don’t like any of this as the polls are showing and its all coming crashing down for this government in a way that the RGR wars never could no matter how much the MSM tries to make out same same.

  17. Zoomster

    You made a comment about Bettina Arndt yesterday with which I strongly disagreed. I did reply but I think you may not have seen it so I am reproducing it here.

    Secondly, the response to Arndt is freedom of speech in action. She said something controversial, others challenged her on it. Freedom of speech is not the freedom to spout whatever tosh you want to without someone arguing back – indeed, someone arguing back is an essential component of real freedom of speech.

    Zoomster

    You cannot whitewash the disgraceful and intimidating behaviour meted out to Bettina Arndt using glib comments about free speech like that.

    Firstly, the student riot mob was not there to ‘argue back’ as you quaintly put it. They were there to prevent her from saying anything at all and were prepared to use any method to achieve that. Hardly a blow for free speech.

    Secondly, she was the one who was ‘arguing back’ against an already well established and virtually unchallenged view that there is a rape crisis in our universities. She has evidence that she wants to put into the debate that might give pause to those promoting those views to reconsider the extent of their claims and some of them clearly don’t like it. It was HER free speech that was being challenged, not their’s.

    Free speech sometimes includes having to listen to things that we don’t like to hear. Unfortunately some of the main protagonists of it don’t seem to have grasped that simple fact.

  18. Darn

    Giving racists a platform in universities is not free speech. Its not like we don’t have plenty of examples of their arguments to draw from.

    Just like we don’t give a platform for an ISIS preacher to preach at university students.

    There are limits.

  19. I give notice that, on the next day of sitting, I shall move—

    That the Senate acknowledge:

    The deplorable rise of anti-white racism and attacks on Western civilisation.
    It is okay to be white.

    — Pauline Hanson

  20. TaylorMade

    An independent inquiry – which will answer all of your questions – found that the Victorian crime data was highly reliable.

    file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/rpp045.pdf

  21. In other important news, Coffee Futures prices broke the buck in the US last friday night and have stayed under a dollar. Now just under US 97 cents a pound.

    Since 2016 the price has halved, but don’t expect retail prices of coffee to drop anytime soon –

    https://quotes.wsj.com/futures/COFFEE?mod=mdc_cmd_dtabnk

    Set the scale to 3 years.

    Also the US 10 year Bond is now above 3 percent and looking firm there – important as its the biggy for setting interest rates all over the place.

  22. Darn

    ‘Free speech sometimes includes having to listen to things that we don’t like to hear’

    No it does not. There is no freedom at all in being compelled to do something.

  23. This appears to be another Hume poll from yesterday.

    BJ Jazzkat ️‍ @jazzkat
    14h14 hours ago
    .@TheAusInstitute polled #AusPol federal seat of Hume.
    Liberal primary vote crashes to 39.7% (down from 53.83 at 2016 election)
    47.8% say #NEG should include emissions reduction target.
    63.7% support moratorium on building new #coal mines
    @simonahac

  24. …and, in the government’s proposal, the Universities are being denied other freedoms – freedom of choice, for example – in order to supposedly facilitate another.

    If you can’t get a gig speaking at a University, there are other places you can hire.

  25. LU, RR

    Thanks I was not aware of the Collie example but it illustrates the point. If there was a cheap way to convert coal power stations to meet modern standards they would have done it already.

    The analogy of getting a 60s car to run on unleaded fuel and meet modern emission standards is close. Easier to replace the entire engine.

    Taylor is not a fool so hard not to conclude he is doing the bidding of others. Have a good day all.

  26. poroti @ #16 Thursday, September 20th, 2018 – 7:41 am

    sprocket_

    The latest flare-up surrounds calls for a special agricultural visa for farm workers, which the government was expected to unveil this week but has since shelved

    I believe the sticking point was the Qld. Nats wanting them to be called Kanaka Visas

    Quite recently I told my 23 year old Grandson about the Blackbirding practices in Queensland. Neither he nor his parents knew or seemed particularly interested.

    A quick search via Mr. Google had the following show up:-
    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/03/modern-coolies-enslaved-aussie-visas/

    I seem to be in some sort of time warp or perhaps a mental fugue in which Bill Shorten somehow assumed control of lots of stuff

    Get off your arse, Bill Shorten. Reform the visa program. Give it a royal commission. Cut immigration and get behind Aussie wages.

    What are you good for?

    Dear Abbee,

    HELP ❗ 😎🙈🙉🙊

  27. If someone wanders into my workplace and tells me that something I know is happening isn’t, at the very very least I’m walking out on them.

  28. …Darn seems to be arguing that the doors of the hall be locked and I’m shackled to a chair with a gag in my mouth. That doesn’t seem anything like any freedom I’ve ever heard of.

  29. Sohar @ #31 Thursday, September 20th, 2018 – 6:13 am

    This appears to be another Hume poll from yesterday.

    BJ Jazzkat ️‍ @jazzkat
    14h14 hours ago
    .@TheAusInstitute polled #AusPol federal seat of Hume.
    Liberal primary vote crashes to 39.7% (down from 53.83 at 2016 election)
    47.8% say #NEG should include emissions reduction target.
    63.7% support moratorium on building new #coal mines
    @simonahac

    Thanks Sohar.

  30. Darn

    I am sorry but I did not mention any particular person in my post.

    I used two examples of where we do deny people the ability to speak at Universities. For very good reason. We as a society have decided that we can study these subjects without inviting people to speak. Thus no one can claim free speech as a reason for access to a university.

    The only claim that we make is it discriminatory to exclude someone? Thats an entirely different argument.

  31. nath

    Your problem is targeting women. You should be polite to everyone not just woman as if they are the weaker sex not able to take on robust debate.

    Edit: I do note this is a cultural thing hard to overcome from lessons taught in childhood.

  32. zoomster says:
    Thursday, September 20, 2018 at 8:12 am
    Darn

    ‘Free speech sometimes includes having to listen to things that we don’t like to hear’

    No it does not. There is no freedom at all in being compelled to do something.

    Zoomster

    Perhaps that’s true in a trivial and knit picking kind of way. But if we want to take issue with what someone is going to say it would be rather stupid not to listen to it first.

  33. nath,
    Being polite to women while telling them how to behave doesn’t cut it. Like telling me how I should behave towards Pegasus. I resent it and reject it absolutely. I make my own decisions.

  34. nath

    On this forum, I am someone mounting arguments. I expect these arguments to be tested. That isn’t gender specific.

    If someone goes the person rather than the argument, whoever the person is they’re attacking, I basically dismiss them as having no other comeback.

    If you did that, yes you should apologise for it. But you should apologise for it regardless of the gender of the person. We all deserve to be treated politely and with respect (not saying I always live up to that, but I try!)

    I’d rather you’d have apologised to Barney.

  35. Darn

    . She has evidence that she wants to put into the debate that might give pause to those promoting those views to reconsider the extent of their claims and some of them clearly don’t like it. It was HER free speech that was being challenged, not their’s.

    Does Bettina have evidence? I can’t recall any discussion of studies and surveys conducted by Ms Arndt. Is it possible that she just has opinions?

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