BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

Labor remains deep in landslide territory on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, despite the moderating impact of this week’s Ipsos poll.

Ipsos provided the one new poll for the week in its monthly outing for the Fairfax papers, and it raised a few eyebrows with its weak primary vote for Labor and extraordinarily strong result for the Greens, the latter exacerbating a long established peculiarity of this pollster. The poll’s addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate takes a certain amount of edge off the recent blowout to Labor, while still finding them on course for a victory of historic dimensions. The BludgerTrack seat projection has Labor down three on last week’s result, with Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia each moving one seat in the Coalition’s favour. The methodological caveats about BludgerTrack from last week’s post continue to apply, as does the fact that I won’t be updating the leadership ratings until the model has a solid enough base of Morrison-era data to work from. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

  1. Trying to keep some kind of perspective on Newspoll, I would guess that 53-47 is somewhere near the mark. However, some in the CPG such as Michelle Grattan have been working hard to find a speck of gold for Morrison in what is otherwise a really bleak outlook for him. I expect rusted-on LNP supporters will be with them whatever, just as Irish Catholics still maintain their allegiance to the Catholic Church even though they have serious misgivings about the church locally. If it were Labor in the same situation as the LNP is at the moment, it is likely Labor would still rake up 47% support. I would be happy for 52-48 for Labor at the next election and a majority of somewhere near 5 on the floor of the HR with the Speaker as one more. Control of the Senate would be just that much more satisfactory.

  2. Here is what I have. Apologies if I missed anyone. I will check back later tonight, but I’m going to leave now for a bit…
    =====================
    Newspoll-Poll 2018-09-23
    Mean: ALP 54.4 to 45.6 LNP
    Median: ALP 54 to 46 LNP
    No. of Respondents: 57
    ———————-
    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 A different Michael
    54.5 / 45.5 a r
    53 / 47 Akubra 
    54 / 46 Al Pal
    54 / 46 Andrew_Earlwood
    56 / 44 Asha Leu
    51 / 49 ausdavo
    54 / 46 BK
    47 / 53 Boerwar
    56 / 44 briefly
    54 / 46 C@tmomma
    54 / 46 Confessions
    54 / 46 Cud Chewer
    54 / 46 d-money
    99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
    55 / 45 Don
    53 / 47 Evan
    53 / 47 Frednk
    56 / 44 Fulvio Sammut
    61 / 39 Gecko
    55 / 45 Golly
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    52 / 48 Holden Hillbilly
    53 / 47 imacca
    54 / 46 jeffemu
    53 / 47 jenauthor
    52 / 48 jph
    52 / 48 Kevjohnno
    54 / 46 Late Riser
    51 / 49 Lynchpin
    54 / 46 Mari
    52 / 48 Matt
    55 / 45 Matt31
    53 / 47 meher baba
    55 / 45 Michael
    52 / 48 Mundo
    56 / 44 nath
    53 / 47 poroti
    57 / 43 Puffytmd
    55 / 45 Question
    54 / 46 Robert Ball
    51 / 49 Sceptic
    52 / 48 Simon² Katich®
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    54 / 46 Socrates
    55 / 45 Sohar
    53 / 47 sonar
    55 / 45 steve davis
    53 / 47 Steve777
    52 / 48 Taylormade
    53 / 47 Tricot
    53 / 47 The Silver Bodgie
    54 / 46 Upnorth
    58 / 42 Warrigal
    53 / 47 Whisper
    53 / 47 Work To Rule
    52 / 48 Zoidlord

  3. “A few weeks ago I was listening to ABC radio in the car when they had an interview with Richard Fidler and a historian who was saying much the same sort of thing about how most of today’s “jobs” are meaningless, pointless exercises. The whole conversation was about a UBI, and the nature of poverty.”

    Hello Dan – I caught the same broadcast, which got me to thinking about the idea.

    Of course this Government seems to be creating a whole raft of bullshit jobs channeling money to mates to torment the unemployed. Rutger Bregman made the point that most of the unemployed aren’t in that state because they are lazy or feckless but because of decisions made hundreds of miles away in head offices because a machine or someone in a low wage Country could do their job cheaper.

  4. Kristina Kenneally has fact checked Scummo’s boast that the gender pay gap has decreased under the Coalition. It’s because male wages have collapsed!

  5. “C@t
    The CEO and Chair of the AFL usually host the PM.
    I wonder if JBish will get a guernsey.”
    Bill Shorten is a Collingwood supporter but doesn’t make a big thing about it, unlike many other politicians. Bracks was another – he used to sit in the outer with the other supporters and shunned the corporates and other freeloaders.

  6. Steve777 @ #2553 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 6:55 pm

    “A few weeks ago I was listening to ABC radio in the car when they had an interview with Richard Fidler and a historian who was saying much the same sort of thing about how most of today’s “jobs” are meaningless, pointless exercises. The whole conversation was about a UBI, and the nature of poverty.”

    Hello Dan – I caught the same broadcast, which got me to thinking about the idea.

    Of course this Government seems to be creating a whole raft of bullshit jobs channeling money to mates to torment the unemployed. Rutger Bregman made the point that most of the unemployed aren’t in that state because they are lazy or feckless but because of decisions made hundreds of miles away in head offices because a machine or someone in a low wage Country could do their job cheaper.

    Indeed. What was interesting was the results from the Canadian experiment which showed that the “cost” of it was paid for by reductions in other areas such as healthcare and crime.

    What was also fascinating was the fact that the idea of a basic income attracted support from both the Left and the Right. Arch neo-liberal Milton Friedman was a big fan, as was Richard Nixon.

  7. Even within ‘meaningful’ jobs, there is a lot of meaningless busywork.

    My line of work is within healthcare, and there is oodles of paperwork, largely done to cover our behinds if we’re ever sued. I’m sure most of it is never read.

  8. I remember when Paul Keating as PM gave Collingwood the right to host the post-budget dinner in Melbourne. Unfortunately Collingwood betrayed Keating somewhat. In 1995 they invited Howard to a Collingwood match and tried to get an undertaking that under Howard the post-budget dinner would continue to be Collingwood’s nice little earner. Eddie recently apologized to Keating for that. It’s important to recognize and remember your mistakes. To hold those responsible accountable. So that mistakes are less likely to happen again. Collingwood won’t be so ungracious again.

  9. Late Riser:

    My guess is 52 making it some 70 adverse, consecutive Newspolls – slightly improved post coup based on Morrison’s gift of the gab, his RC re. aged-care, his rasing of the maximum penalty for food tampering.

  10. Against my better judgement turned on Sky Kenny and Murray LNP up on primary but long way to go two party LNP a little better will go and have a shower now as feel dirty

  11. 60 Minutes Australia
    ‏Verified account @60Mins
    1m1 minute ago

    The ferocious events and bullying of the last few weeks has revealed the thin ranks of women in the Coalition, and it’s about to get even worse. #60Mins

  12. a historian who was saying much the same sort of thing about how most of today’s “jobs” are meaningless, pointless exercises

    As a historian he would certainly have the experience to comment

  13. I don’t think the Coalition primary could get much worse, so upwards movement was to be expected and ALP has apparently come back down to Earth.

    Feels like the ALP on 55-54.

    Whatever we think, it’s still disastrous.

  14. I saw the Globe Pop-up production of Macbeth this afternoon. Very nice it was too

    Was thinking of Macbeth as Morrison, with Turnbull as Duncan and Dutton as Banquo… 😀

  15. Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 9:14 pm

    a historian who was saying much the same sort of thing about how most of today’s “jobs” are meaningless, pointless exercises

    As a historian he would certainly have the experience to comment

    _______________________________________________

    A truer statement has never been made. History, bah! better to live in ignorance of the past that way everything is a perpetual surprise. No more people saying history repeats itself etc. Better yet, lets burn all history books, who needs em.

  16. Hey sprocket
    No, I was up in stand. Few hours of standing a bit too much for my weary bones 😉
    But looked like it was fun down there. Just a word of warning though: if MoV is anything like Macbeth, don’t stand too close to the stage in all of your finery!

    I might actually try to see that as well too

  17. GetUp is running an excellent campaign called A Future To Fight For. The flagship policy is a federally funded, community-administered Job Guarantee. Ed Miller, senior campaigner for GetUp, interviewed Professor Stephanie Kelton about the Job Guarantee (which is both a public sector job creation program and a macroeconomic stabiliser).

    You can listen to the interview here:

    https://futuretofightfor.org.au/podcast/

    You can read about the buffer stock employment model for controlling inflation here:

    Outline of the proposal:

    http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/pn_2018_3.pdf

    Detailed proposal:

    http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/rpr_4_18.pdf

  18. Well its not good looking good if there is little change in TPP for the Libs.It means Morrison not getting any traction with the voters.2 more bad Newspolls after this and the Libs are toast.

  19. You have to wonder what Morrison is going to do for attention now that the air has gone out of the Strawberry tyres. Put a piece of Lego up his nose? 🙂

  20. Will also be interesting to see where the Morrison approval “uncommitteds” jump…as usual for a new PM, that was an elevated reading (which was the reason his first net approval was better than Turnbull’s)

  21. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    3m3 minutes ago

    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (+2) ALP 54 (-2) #auspol
    0 replies 6 retweets 0 likes

  22. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    2m2 minutes ago

    #Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (+2) ALP 39 (-3) GRN 10 (0) ON 6 (0) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    49s49 seconds ago

    #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 44 (+3) Disapprove 39 (0) #auspol
    0 replies 3 retweets 0 likes

  23. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    15s16 seconds ago

    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 32 (-5) Disapprove 54 (+3) #auspol
    0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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