BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

Labor remains deep in landslide territory on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, despite the moderating impact of this week’s Ipsos poll.

Ipsos provided the one new poll for the week in its monthly outing for the Fairfax papers, and it raised a few eyebrows with its weak primary vote for Labor and extraordinarily strong result for the Greens, the latter exacerbating a long established peculiarity of this pollster. The poll’s addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate takes a certain amount of edge off the recent blowout to Labor, while still finding them on course for a victory of historic dimensions. The BludgerTrack seat projection has Labor down three on last week’s result, with Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia each moving one seat in the Coalition’s favour. The methodological caveats about BludgerTrack from last week’s post continue to apply, as does the fact that I won’t be updating the leadership ratings until the model has a solid enough base of Morrison-era data to work from. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

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  1. My little grandson has had all his vaccinations but for the past 4 weeks he has been quite poorly. As it turns out has had contracted a mild form of whooping cough which the GP finally guessed that before the results of a special swab have been advised. The special medicine prescribed under the assumption has worked wonders and the little chap is back firing on all cylinders. Plus supercharger!

  2. BK @ #2501 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 7:17 pm

    My little grandson has has all his vaccinations but for the past 4 weeks he has been quite poorly. As it turns out has had contracted a mild form of whooping cough which the GP finally guessed that before the results of a special swab have been advised. The special medicine prescribed under the assumption has worked wonders and the little chap is back firing on all cylinders. Plus supercharger!

    Great news. Whooping cough is a dreadful illness. 😷 💊

  3. A different Michael says:
    Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 6:25 pm

    Newspoll prediction:
    ALP 56-44 LNP

    Carn the pies!
    ____________________
    OK that’s good but Collingwood people have our own language and its like this:
    Carn the f***ken Pies!

    And. We didn’t win. We shit it in.

  4. BK says:
    Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 7:17 pm
    My little grandson has had all his vaccinations but for the past 4 weeks he has been quite poorly. As it turns out has had contracted a mild form of whooping cough which the GP finally guessed that before the results of a special swab have been advised. The special medicine prescribed under the assumption has worked wonders and the little chap is back firing on all cylinders. Plus supercharger!

    That must be a very great relief, BK. I hope he continues to improve.

  5. I have some sympathy with the idea that there will be a swag of voters looking for any excuse the return their vote to the liberals, notwithstanding a deepening of their omnishambles.
    Hence I fear a 54-46 Newspoll.
    I see BW you are talking down the UBI again. Do you think there would be merit in some variation of ‘UWI’ where having qualified for any welfare benefit you just get the money, and cut out all the compliance carry on.
    The savings on cronies in employment agencies, small business signing off on numerous bogus job applications, umpteen punitive measures and checking processes would add up to quite a bit of saving. [My apologies I haven’t done the numbers yet]
    The savings could be put into increasing the base rate by $75 as suggested by ACOSS etc

  6. Why is the parliamentary delegation to the General Assembly suddenly an issue?
    MPs have been going there for 72 years and quite rightly. Our delegates to the UN should include members of the legislature as well as the administration

  7. Brilliant Rowe yet again. He is Australia’s best political cartoon in my view.

    BK:

    Good news re your grandson. Your family must be very relieved.

  8. Why is the parliamentary delegation to the General Assembly suddenly an issue?

    It’s not an issue per se, just that awarding these trips to MPs who are retiring from parliament is a cynical use of the entitlement. If it is important for members of the legislative branch to attend then surely it should be members who are actually going to be contributing to the parliament in the future.

    And it would appear that the Liberals have offered the trip to Banks and Sudmalis, presumably in an attempt to silence them. Banks declined the offer.

  9. The WAFL GF is another lop-sided affair. Subiaco, having not lost one game the entire season have defeated West Perth 127 to 46.

  10. One massive cost a UBI or some variation on it would do away with is the fatuous ‘work for the dole’ concept. Clearly if these were real jobs they would be paid jobs, not sinkholes for taxpayer dollars under the guise of beating up on ‘bludgers’

  11. OK, this is nearly 8 years old but this dogwhistling dickhead is now Prime Minister:

    “THE opposition immigration spokesman, Scott Morrison, urged the shadow cabinet to capitalise on the electorate’s growing concerns about “Muslim immigration”, “Muslims in Australia” and the “inability” of Muslim migrants to integrate.

    Mr Morrison’s suggestion was made at a meeting in December [2010] at which shadow ministers were asked to bring three ideas for issues on which the Coalition should concentrate its political attack during this parliamentary term.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-sees-votes-in-anti-muslim-strategy-20110216-1awmo.html

    May his career at the top be short. We know it will be brutish.

  12. Confessions

    It’s not an issue per se, just that awarding these trips to MPs who are retiring from parliament is a cynical use of the entitlement. If it is important for members of the legislative branch to attend then surely it should be members who are actually going to be contributing to the parliament in the future.
    ______________________
    Yes it should go to first or second term parliamentarians and three months is way too long. It’s just a NY holiday camouflaged as a UN secondment. There should be much greater supervision of these trips. I understand that having parliamentarians travel overseas reduces the provincialism of our elected representatives but sending retiring members is an insult to us all.

  13. I think we need to revisit the social insurance model for unemployment support, sickness benefits and disability payments. This model was used with the original design of the system by Curtin and Chifley. Menzies could see the surplus accumulating in the insurance accounts and shifted the whole thing into consolidated revenue where welfare has rested ever since. I think we need to lift social payments very significantly and we need to find ways to finance this that are acceptable to voters.

    We use compulsory insurance for a variety of things and the model is well-understood and has Browns support. It’s in use in motor vehicle/accident risk, workers injuries and illness, for GP visits, via Medicare.

    We could significantly change the premium collection system and improve the allocation of social incomes. For a start, social insurance could be levied on company incomes. Perhaps for very large companies that have high revenue but pay very little tax, social insurance could be calculated as % of turnover or of income, such that a minimum would apply.

    The household share and wages share of national income have been declining for many years. This is squeezing the social income budget. We can change this by changing the mode of revenue collection. This would be a powerful re-distributive measure if well designed.

  14. Rowe’s one of the few Australian political cartoonists capable of consistently making me laugh. The rest are generally lucky just to elicit some minor chuckles.

  15. I am with you on that briefly.
    Certainly the revenue needs to come from places where it can be afforded [hence the justified popularity of opposing massive company tax cuts]
    Shorten and Co are singing from a pretty good song sheet when it comes to prioritising social spending in general

  16. Oakeshott Country @ #2508 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 7:25 pm

    Why is the parliamentary delegation to the General Assembly suddenly an issue?
    MPs have been going there for 72 years and quite rightly. Our delegates to the UN should include members of the legislature as well as the administration

    My gut reaction is that this is a holiday. A bit of thought though and I can see that it should return value to Australia, such as networking, fresh perspectives and ideas, or even perhaps business $s. And then some more thought as to why there even is a UN assembly and how Australia might contribute to that greater whole and perhaps we might appreciate the calibre of person who should go. Then again perhaps my gut wasn’t so far off. 🙁

  17. Steve777 @ #2513 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 7:36 pm

    OK, this is nearly 8 years old but this dogwhistling dickhead is now Prime Minister:

    “THE opposition immigration spokesman, Scott Morrison, urged the shadow cabinet to capitalise on the electorate’s growing concerns about “Muslim immigration”, “Muslims in Australia” and the “inability” of Muslim migrants to integrate.

    Mr Morrison’s suggestion was made at a meeting in December [2010] at which shadow ministers were asked to bring three ideas for issues on which the Coalition should concentrate its political attack during this parliamentary term.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-sees-votes-in-anti-muslim-strategy-20110216-1awmo.html

    May his career at the top be short. We know it will be brutish.

    He’s not the only one:

    Broinowski chronicled how well Hanson’s anti-Islam theme worked on her remote and regional tour. At this time the Syrian war was pumping out refugees at a rate that saw them inundate neighbouring countries in catastrophic numbers; the hollow misery of their pathetic odysseys, seeking a better life elsewhere, was highlighted by the confronting image of a little Syrian boy, Alan Kurdi, washed up on a Turkish beach. The rivers of compassionate tears that spread from Australia to America prompted swift global action. Even the hard-hearted Abbott responded with an announcement Australia would accept 12,000 Syrian refugees.

    But there was no such waterworks in the little plane cruising across the clear blue skies of Queensland. “Their parents shouldn’t be bringing them out on boats to put them in that situation,” Hanson flatly told Broinowski. “I’m not a bleeding heart – my job is to look after the people here first and foremost. You can’t save the world. It’s time these countries got their acts together.”

    Every time Hanson took prime minister Abbott to task for accepting the Syrian refugees, her Facebook ‘likes’ jumped dramatically. Broinowski noted Hanson’s excited pride at the hundreds of spikes that followed a TV appearance where she ranted that everyone “better be prepared, because a lot of people are going to suffer if we open the floodgates to let them [Muslims] in. We have never had such problems as with the Muslims.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/james-ashby-the-man-behind-pauline-hanson-20180918-p504f3.html

  18. Proponents of Universal Basic Income see a future in which all of the “real” work only needs to engage a small fraction of the population, with the majority of essential functions being highly automated. We’ve seen it happen in agriculture / primary industries, which used to occupy the majority of the population, but now just 2 or 3% in developed countries. Manufacturing is going the same way, with many tertiary services like driving and programming able to be automated. And when you come to think of it, lots of people are employed in bullshit jobs that don’t contribute to productivity but shuffle money around – mostly upwards. Jobs get done because someone, usually someone who gains from it, wants it done. Think tax lawyer.

    I think that something like UBI is worth investigating.

  19. Tallying the (now 51) guesses at the next Newspoll got me to look at the official Newspoll site. I was struck by the flip in primary voting intention.

    The LNP were hovering just below 40% and the ALP were slowly dropping towards 35%. Then it all flipped 4 weeks ago. Even two weeks ago LNP were below 35% and the ALP were above 40%.

  20. Late to the party. Jeffemu would like 54 to 46 to the good guys.

    As a 51 year plus Sharks supporter I would actually love it to be 66 to 34 because I detest that slimey smug bastard of a thing. I have gone to lengthy print in here not that long ago about the number of real Shark supporters that loathe Scummo.

  21. I was wondering if Eddie McGuire would invite fellow Collingwood tragic, Bill Shorten, to the Grand Final this week, or does he have to have Morrison there due to protocol?

  22. puffytmd:

    What is your opinion on PM Kevin Rudd and SSM?

    Exactly the same. But no-one is re-writing history to pretend that he was really a champion of it.

    I laugh at how some of you think I must be a huge Rudd fan, just because I’m critical of Gillard’s actions on this.

  23. jeffemu & Taylormade, noted.
    now…
    Newspoll-Poll 2018-09-23
    Mean: ALP 54.5 to 45.5 LNP
    Median: ALP 54 to 46 LNP
    No. of Respondents: 53

  24. Late Riser – you are a year older than the Prime Minister. Actually, discovering that you are older than the Prime Minister is to cross a sort of line. I crossed it when Kevin Rudd was elected.

  25. From Steve777 via wiki…

    The author contends that more than half of societal work is pointless…Graeber argues that these jobs are largely in the private sector despite the idea that market competition would root out such inefficiencies. In companies, he concludes that the rise of service sector jobs owes less to economic need than to “managerial feudalism”, in which employers need underlings to feel important and maintain competitive status and power.

    Yes! Despite competition, corporations are far from efficient. There is a corporate cultural dysfunction that Graeber only scratches the surface of.

  26. Steve777 @ #2537 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:19 pm

    Late Riser – you are a year older than the Prime Minister. Actually, discovering that you are older than the Prime Minister is to cross a sort of line. I crossed it when Kevin Rudd was elected.

    I’m older than that. 🙂 (Ah, figured it out. My earlier comment means there have now been 51 guesses. You had me worried.)

  27. What surprises me is that we haven’t heard from twats like POV making smart arse comments about the result of Newspoll.

    That tells me the Libs are in the shit.

  28. Late Riser @ #2533 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 6:12 pm

    Steve777 @ #2529 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:07 pm

    Bullshit jobs: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs

    Interesting idea. Thanks. Thinking…might take a while.

    A few weeks ago I was listening to ABC radio in the car when they had an interview with Richard Fidler and a historian who was saying much the same sort of thing about how most of today’s “jobs” are meaningless, pointless exercises. The whole conversation was about a UBI, and the nature of poverty.

    Here it is, presented as food for thought rather than as a justification for a UBI:

    http://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/conversations/conversations-rutger-bregman-rpt/10053806

  29. Late Riser – I re-read your post. You’ve been supporting the Sharks for 51+ years. Now they entered the competition when I was in high school – mid to late 60s – 1967 from memory, so that’s 51 years.

    So you are a bit older than that – late 50s or older. And you’ve been a Sharks supporter for just under 51 years longer than Morriscum.

  30. Steve777 @ #2546 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:39 pm

    Late Riser – I re-read your post. You’ve been supporting the Sharks for 51+ years. Now they entered the competition when I was in high school – mid to late 60s – 1967 from memory, so that’s 51 years.

    So you are a bit older than that – late 50s or older. And you’ve been a Sharks supporter for just under 51 years longer than Morriscum.

    Really sorry, but I hadn’t heard of the Sharks until recently. (But you’re warm on the age thing.)

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