Ipsos provided the one new poll for the week in its monthly outing for the Fairfax papers, and it raised a few eyebrows with its weak primary vote for Labor and extraordinarily strong result for the Greens, the latter exacerbating a long established peculiarity of this pollster. The poll’s addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate takes a certain amount of edge off the recent blowout to Labor, while still finding them on course for a victory of historic dimensions. The BludgerTrack seat projection has Labor down three on last week’s result, with Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia each moving one seat in the Coalition’s favour. The methodological caveats about BludgerTrack from last week’s post continue to apply, as does the fact that I won’t be updating the leadership ratings until the model has a solid enough base of Morrison-era data to work from. Other than that, full results from the link below.
BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor
Labor remains deep in landslide territory on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, despite the moderating impact of this week’s Ipsos poll.
My little grandson has had all his vaccinations but for the past 4 weeks he has been quite poorly. As it turns out has had contracted a mild form of whooping cough which the GP finally guessed that before the results of a special swab have been advised. The special medicine prescribed under the assumption has worked wonders and the little chap is back firing on all cylinders. Plus supercharger!
BK @ #2501 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 7:17 pm
Great news. Whooping cough is a dreadful illness. 😷 💊
BK,
Great to hear about your grandson. He will have the immunity of Superman now! 🙂
My guess for Newspoll is 56/44.
A different Michael says:
Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 6:25 pm
Newspoll prediction:
ALP 56-44 LNP
Carn the pies!
____________________
OK that’s good but Collingwood people have our own language and its like this:
Carn the f***ken Pies!
And. We didn’t win. We shit it in.
BK says:
Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 7:17 pm
My little grandson has had all his vaccinations but for the past 4 weeks he has been quite poorly. As it turns out has had contracted a mild form of whooping cough which the GP finally guessed that before the results of a special swab have been advised. The special medicine prescribed under the assumption has worked wonders and the little chap is back firing on all cylinders. Plus supercharger!
That must be a very great relief, BK. I hope he continues to improve.
I have some sympathy with the idea that there will be a swag of voters looking for any excuse the return their vote to the liberals, notwithstanding a deepening of their omnishambles.
Hence I fear a 54-46 Newspoll.
I see BW you are talking down the UBI again. Do you think there would be merit in some variation of ‘UWI’ where having qualified for any welfare benefit you just get the money, and cut out all the compliance carry on.
The savings on cronies in employment agencies, small business signing off on numerous bogus job applications, umpteen punitive measures and checking processes would add up to quite a bit of saving. [My apologies I haven’t done the numbers yet]
The savings could be put into increasing the base rate by $75 as suggested by ACOSS etc
Why is the parliamentary delegation to the General Assembly suddenly an issue?
MPs have been going there for 72 years and quite rightly. Our delegates to the UN should include members of the legislature as well as the administration
Brilliant Rowe yet again. He is Australia’s best political cartoon in my view.
BK:
Good news re your grandson. Your family must be very relieved.
It’s not an issue per se, just that awarding these trips to MPs who are retiring from parliament is a cynical use of the entitlement. If it is important for members of the legislative branch to attend then surely it should be members who are actually going to be contributing to the parliament in the future.
And it would appear that the Liberals have offered the trip to Banks and Sudmalis, presumably in an attempt to silence them. Banks declined the offer.
The WAFL GF is another lop-sided affair. Subiaco, having not lost one game the entire season have defeated West Perth 127 to 46.
One massive cost a UBI or some variation on it would do away with is the fatuous ‘work for the dole’ concept. Clearly if these were real jobs they would be paid jobs, not sinkholes for taxpayer dollars under the guise of beating up on ‘bludgers’
OK, this is nearly 8 years old but this dogwhistling dickhead is now Prime Minister:
“THE opposition immigration spokesman, Scott Morrison, urged the shadow cabinet to capitalise on the electorate’s growing concerns about “Muslim immigration”, “Muslims in Australia” and the “inability” of Muslim migrants to integrate.
Mr Morrison’s suggestion was made at a meeting in December [2010] at which shadow ministers were asked to bring three ideas for issues on which the Coalition should concentrate its political attack during this parliamentary term.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-sees-votes-in-anti-muslim-strategy-20110216-1awmo.html
May his career at the top be short. We know it will be brutish.
Confessions
It’s not an issue per se, just that awarding these trips to MPs who are retiring from parliament is a cynical use of the entitlement. If it is important for members of the legislative branch to attend then surely it should be members who are actually going to be contributing to the parliament in the future.
______________________
Yes it should go to first or second term parliamentarians and three months is way too long. It’s just a NY holiday camouflaged as a UN secondment. There should be much greater supervision of these trips. I understand that having parliamentarians travel overseas reduces the provincialism of our elected representatives but sending retiring members is an insult to us all.
I think we need to revisit the social insurance model for unemployment support, sickness benefits and disability payments. This model was used with the original design of the system by Curtin and Chifley. Menzies could see the surplus accumulating in the insurance accounts and shifted the whole thing into consolidated revenue where welfare has rested ever since. I think we need to lift social payments very significantly and we need to find ways to finance this that are acceptable to voters.
We use compulsory insurance for a variety of things and the model is well-understood and has Browns support. It’s in use in motor vehicle/accident risk, workers injuries and illness, for GP visits, via Medicare.
We could significantly change the premium collection system and improve the allocation of social incomes. For a start, social insurance could be levied on company incomes. Perhaps for very large companies that have high revenue but pay very little tax, social insurance could be calculated as % of turnover or of income, such that a minimum would apply.
The household share and wages share of national income have been declining for many years. This is squeezing the social income budget. We can change this by changing the mode of revenue collection. This would be a powerful re-distributive measure if well designed.
Rowe’s one of the few Australian political cartoonists capable of consistently making me laugh. The rest are generally lucky just to elicit some minor chuckles.
I am with you on that briefly.
Certainly the revenue needs to come from places where it can be afforded [hence the justified popularity of opposing massive company tax cuts]
Shorten and Co are singing from a pretty good song sheet when it comes to prioritising social spending in general
Oakeshott Country @ #2508 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 7:25 pm
My gut reaction is that this is a holiday. A bit of thought though and I can see that it should return value to Australia, such as networking, fresh perspectives and ideas, or even perhaps business $s. And then some more thought as to why there even is a UN assembly and how Australia might contribute to that greater whole and perhaps we might appreciate the calibre of person who should go. Then again perhaps my gut wasn’t so far off. 🙁
Pope and Wilcox are both consistently funny and on-target cartoonists
Whisper says 53-47
I know how short and forgiving the Australian memory is
Got you Whisper. 🙂
Steve777 @ #2513 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 7:36 pm
He’s not the only one:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/james-ashby-the-man-behind-pauline-hanson-20180918-p504f3.html
Whisper @ #2520 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 7:46 pm
Except when it comes to the Labor Party. 🙁
NSW Labor can be very memorable 😉
poroti @ #2524 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 7:53 pm
We have learned, poroti. Believe me, we have learned a hard lesson. 🙂
So they’re ‘broke’, are they?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/broke-liberals-set-to-splurge-up-to-1-million-on-wentworth-byelection-20180923-p505gq.html
Proponents of Universal Basic Income see a future in which all of the “real” work only needs to engage a small fraction of the population, with the majority of essential functions being highly automated. We’ve seen it happen in agriculture / primary industries, which used to occupy the majority of the population, but now just 2 or 3% in developed countries. Manufacturing is going the same way, with many tertiary services like driving and programming able to be automated. And when you come to think of it, lots of people are employed in bullshit jobs that don’t contribute to productivity but shuffle money around – mostly upwards. Jobs get done because someone, usually someone who gains from it, wants it done. Think tax lawyer.
I think that something like UBI is worth investigating.
Tallying the (now 51) guesses at the next Newspoll got me to look at the official Newspoll site. I was struck by the flip in primary voting intention.
The LNP were hovering just below 40% and the ALP were slowly dropping towards 35%. Then it all flipped 4 weeks ago. Even two weeks ago LNP were below 35% and the ALP were above 40%.
Bullshit jobs: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/broke-liberals-set-to-splurge-up-to-1-million-on-wentworth-byelection-20180923-p505gq.html
It’s a good bet that Turnbull won’t be contributing. {smiley emoticon}
Late to the party. Jeffemu would like 54 to 46 to the good guys.
As a 51 year plus Sharks supporter I would actually love it to be 66 to 34 because I detest that slimey smug bastard of a thing. I have gone to lengthy print in here not that long ago about the number of real Shark supporters that loathe Scummo.
ALP 52-48
Steve777 @ #2529 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:07 pm
Interesting idea. Thanks. Thinking…might take a while.
I was wondering if Eddie McGuire would invite fellow Collingwood tragic, Bill Shorten, to the Grand Final this week, or does he have to have Morrison there due to protocol?
puffytmd:
Exactly the same. But no-one is re-writing history to pretend that he was really a champion of it.
I laugh at how some of you think I must be a huge Rudd fan, just because I’m critical of Gillard’s actions on this.
jeffemu & Taylormade, noted.
now…
Newspoll-Poll 2018-09-23
Mean: ALP 54.5 to 45.5 LNP
Median: ALP 54 to 46 LNP
No. of Respondents: 53
Late Riser – you are a year older than the Prime Minister. Actually, discovering that you are older than the Prime Minister is to cross a sort of line. I crossed it when Kevin Rudd was elected.
From Steve777 via wiki…
Yes! Despite competition, corporations are far from efficient. There is a corporate cultural dysfunction that Graeber only scratches the surface of.
C@t
The CEO and Chair of the AFL usually host the PM.
I wonder if JBish will get a guernsey.
Wasn’t Eddie McGuire lined up one time for a safe ALP seat and dropped out?
Steve777 @ #2537 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:19 pm
I’m older than that. 🙂 (Ah, figured it out. My earlier comment means there have now been 51 guesses. You had me worried.)
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-mogul-and-a-pm-s-fall-20180920-p5050k.html
@Late Riser
53-47 on the basis there’s a honeymoon narrowing going on.
What surprises me is that we haven’t heard from twats like POV making smart arse comments about the result of Newspoll.
That tells me the Libs are in the shit.
Late Riser @ #2533 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 6:12 pm
A few weeks ago I was listening to ABC radio in the car when they had an interview with Richard Fidler and a historian who was saying much the same sort of thing about how most of today’s “jobs” are meaningless, pointless exercises. The whole conversation was about a UBI, and the nature of poverty.
Here it is, presented as food for thought rather than as a justification for a UBI:
http://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/conversations/conversations-rutger-bregman-rpt/10053806
Late Riser – I re-read your post. You’ve been supporting the Sharks for 51+ years. Now they entered the competition when I was in high school – mid to late 60s – 1967 from memory, so that’s 51 years.
So you are a bit older than that – late 50s or older. And you’ve been a Sharks supporter for just under 51 years longer than Morriscum.
My prediction……52/48 ………Strayans really are that dumb.
My guess, 54/46 to ALP
Steve777 @ #2546 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:39 pm
Really sorry, but I hadn’t heard of the Sharks until recently. (But you’re warm on the age thing.)
Dan Gulberry, I love listening to Richard Fidler. I should do it more often. Thanks.