BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

Labor remains deep in landslide territory on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, despite the moderating impact of this week’s Ipsos poll.

Ipsos provided the one new poll for the week in its monthly outing for the Fairfax papers, and it raised a few eyebrows with its weak primary vote for Labor and extraordinarily strong result for the Greens, the latter exacerbating a long established peculiarity of this pollster. The poll’s addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate takes a certain amount of edge off the recent blowout to Labor, while still finding them on course for a victory of historic dimensions. The BludgerTrack seat projection has Labor down three on last week’s result, with Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia each moving one seat in the Coalition’s favour. The methodological caveats about BludgerTrack from last week’s post continue to apply, as does the fact that I won’t be updating the leadership ratings until the model has a solid enough base of Morrison-era data to work from. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 41 of 52
1 … 40 41 42 … 52

  5. While others were yelling “The Queens is dead! God save the King!” after Rudd succeeded in getting revenge against Gillard I stayed loyal, at least to the great lady’s memory.

    Others told me that “The Party” was everything. I disagreed. It was a kind of mourning that I had, for Gillard. But never for Rudd.

    I was never a party member because I could see that I wouldn’t always agree with it, and that if I had been a party member, this woukd have gotten me into trouble. I couldn’t conform to the absolutism and dogmatism required.

    Having said that, I never believed Gillard was in the slightest measure genuine in adopting her anti SSM stance. My beluef was and remains that she boxed herself into a corner from which she couldn’t escape. And she stayed there. All the justifications she used were so illogical. Her anti SSM position was clearly not genuinely held and I really don’t see how anyone could possibly be fooled by it.

  6. If Labor had remained in power after 2013, Marriage Equality would have been a reality within a couple of years. If the Morrisons and Duttons and Abbotts had had their way, it would have gone the way of the Republic, off the menu for decades, and the Turnbulls and other “Liberals” who now dare to claim credit would have meekly gone along with it. Lib Lab same same is crap.

    Always remember that to get things done, Labor needs the votes of people who care more about their power bills than same sex marriage or the climate, who can be convinced that boat people or “African gangs” are a threat, whose main information about his the country is travelling come from Newscrap and commercial TV. That is the iron rule.

    Any party that fully supported what I wanted, for example, would be too left to be electable. Dragging the Overton window takes time and requires power. We have to get it back to where it was at 1/3/1996 for a start, then work from there.

    Anyway, that was a long ramble, so that’s probably enough from me tonight.

  7. Steve777, “Dragging the Overton window takes time and requires power. We have to get it back to where it was at 1/3/1996 for a start, then work from there.”

    Your comment makes me think of the media laws and the role of the ABC, and their combined influence on ‘public opinion’. Some work to be done there, I think. (I am not convinced that social media is the answer.)

  8. “Her anti SSM position was clearly not genuinely held and I really don’t see how anyone could possibly be fooled by it.”

    Of course it wasn’t genuine. She had bigger fish to fry back then with all the crap being thrown at her. It makes sense to choose your battles. You don’t fight on 50 fronts at once if you can avoid it.

  9. It was an ugly process that took too long but it’s done. I guess in the context of tonight’s debate about Gillard, grudging credit to the Liberal government for doing what Labor wouldn’t/couldn’t.

    But I genuinely believe it was about as grassroots a movement as it gets, and the victory goes to the people, not the pollies.

  10. I’d agree an apology is needed for the 2004-17 period.

    It was legislated arparthied or sperateness in the modern era in a supposedly tolerant advanced society.

    An apology would acknowledge it was wrong and should not have happened and such legislation or like it should not happen again.

  11. The RC into child abuse helped paved the way to rescinding Howard’s law by destroying any credibility the church had on the issue and on any moral and social issues for that matter.

  14. Confessions:

    But your hypothetical isn’t reality. Therefore easy to dismiss as hyperbole.

    So you won’t concede that you might feel differently about the actions of a Prime Minisiter voting against the rights of your social group – your rights – despite the majority of the population surveyed in polls supporting these for the preceding 5 years. Because the Prime Minister changed their mind once they were no longer in office, all is forgiven. They were always really a supporter!

    I think that’s silly. Personally I think parliament should apologise to the LGBT community for the laws in the past that criminalised homosexuality. And I note that there are still people who have convictions under such laws who are trying in vain to have those overturned now such laws have been voided. Surely that’s an issue worth getting het up about in terms of a national apology rather than that same sex couples in the past couldn’t legally marry.

    While I’m not asking for an ‘apology’ myself, it would be welcomed. But, by your thinking, gay people shouldn’t feel peeved at being treated as second class citizens by the parliament up until under a year ago, because they’ve now got what they asked for; never mind all that has come before, and the process it took to get there. Bigger fish to fry and all that. Stop being so bitter.

    Let’s use one of my silly ‘hypotheticals’ again. By that line of reasoning, you’ve got no right to feel aggrieved that women make up less than 50% of our elected representatives, because women can vote, have the right to stand for parliament, and we’ve had one female Prime Minister – what more could you want than that? Somehow, I doubt you’d agree with that.

  15. I will pin a picture of Julia Gillard to the dartboard. You can chuck darts at it if it makes any of you feel better. I never said she was a saint, always 100% authentic nor never made any mistakes.

    But PMJG put up with the most vicious misogynistic, sexist, damaging harrassment I have ever seen meted out to anyone. And she fought back. She did it as my representative, me as a woman.

    Just because you get an ALP PM, you do not get everything suddenly magicked into perfection. JG was a Prime Minister in a hung parliament in a party divided, not a bloody Disney Fairy Godmother.

  18. Rudd could have made the change towards a conscience vote on Marriage Equality when there were more ALP MPs and the Liberals were not under Abbott and thus may have been able to have a conscience vote and thus a greater chance of it passing than under Gillard, although the Senate was tougher then.

  19. I’ll take the lower end of the spectrum, and predict a 52-48 ALP lead for the Monday Newspoll. The relentless media boosting of Scummo will pay dividends.

  20. Anything south of 55 for Labor in the next newspoll will indicate the practice of push polling is rampant, News Ltd media is the plaything of Rupert and Rupert the American, has lost touch with the local political game.

  23. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Fergus Hunter tells us that Ed Husic has warned the government to “tread carefully” on controversial legislation that seeks to give intelligence and law enforcement agencies greater access to Australians’ encrypted data.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/deeply-concerned-labor-wants-to-tap-the-brakes-on-landmark-encryption-legislation-20180922-p505d7.html
    Paul Biegler thinks said cybersecurity legislation might go a bit far.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/our-digital-dilemma-does-latest-cybersecurity-legislation-go-too-far-20180919-p504oh.html
    Katharine Murphy writes that Morrison is a leader in a hurry – but not to end the disgrace of Nauru.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/22/morrison-is-a-leader-in-a-hurry-but-not-to-end-the-disgrace-of-nauru
    The SMH editorial says Luke Foley has a good chance of winning in 2019.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/berejiklian-faces-an-uphill-battle-for-2019-poll-20180921-p505c4.html
    Alexandra Smith looks at the internal problems beleaguering the NSW Liberal party.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/did-they-not-learn-a-lesson-nsw-liberals-turn-on-each-other-20180922-p505fa.html
    The Guardian says that Morrison’s announcement of an extra $4.6bn in funding over the next decade for private schools makes no sense. It concludes by saying transparency and independent analysis are essential to informed and rational debate about and schools funding and are now sadly lacking.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/22/coalition-recycles-old-nonsense-with-business-as-usual-schools-package
    A good piece from Peter van Onselen on Dave Sharma’s playing of the wrong trick in Wentworth.
    https://outline.com/VGbJzR
    Consultant Daryl Dixon writes that clearly, it’s time for the policy bureaucrats and regulators to dirty their hands and become involved with what’s happening out in the real world. Enacting legislation is one thing, making sure it’s effective and works in practice is a totally different and more important issue.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/it-s-time-for-the-world-of-missed-opportunities-to-stop-20180920-p50539.html
    “Did Rupert Murdoch really go after Malcolm Turnbull?”, asks Jennifer Duke.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/did-rupert-murdoch-really-go-after-malcolm-turnbull-20180921-p5054w.html
    As Australia’s growing appetite for natural produce infiltrates mainstream markets, consumers have been warned that the ‘organic’ label doesn’t necessarily adhere to organic certification standards
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/consumer/2018/09/22/organic-labelling-food-aldi/
    A good weekend column from Peter FitzSimons.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/turnbull-can-t-write-a-best-seller-by-may-20180921-p505br.html
    Now that everything has been said about the 10th anniversary of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, it’s worth asking how close we are to the next crisis. In the market for corporate loans, investors have fulfilled at least one prerequisite: They’re dropping their guard.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/what-will-spark-the-next-financial-crisis-here-is-one-candidate-20180922-p505cy.html
    Trump has unleashed an attack on Kavanagh’s accuser. Via Twitter of course.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/with-a-tweet-trump-pours-scorn-on-accuser-s-story-20180922-p505fk.html
    And he has issued an ominous warning about the Justice Department and the FBI, promising more firings to rid a “lingering stench” after reports that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein discussed secretly recording Trump.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-wants-to-rid-justice-department-of-lingering-stench-20180923-p505g3.html
    The rise and rise of penis extension surgery.
    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/sep/22/penis-extension-wanted-truncheon-in-pants-rise

    Cartoon Corner. Slim pickings I’m afraid.

    Peter Broelman and a vegetable rogues’ gallery.

    A few more in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-september-23-2018-20180922-h15qha.html

  24. Gorks, from your link:

    It also reveals that Mr Foley has pushed past Ms Berejiklian as the more popular leader, with 50.2 per cent of voters polled believing Mr Foley would make a better premier.

    This is a clear departure from the norm in federal polls, where PPM lags behind the 2pp vote.

  26. imacca @ #2001 Saturday, September 22nd, 2018 – 10:59 pm

    “OK, SSM is reality now. Slate wiped clean, all past wrongs forgotten/forgiven. Peace, love and rainbows for all.”

    Yay!!

    And for something interesting not about politics. Well, a bit as it relates to Climate Change……

    https://www.postandcourier.com/news/special_reports/a-powerful-current-just-miles-from-sc-is-changing-it/article_7070df22-67fd-11e8-81ee-2fcab0fd4023.html

    Would have been a fascinating expedition to be part of.

    Thanks for the link, Imacca,

    That was fascinating

  27. Students and activists who protest at campus events would have to pay for their own security under a plan being pressed upon Australia’s major universities by federal Education Minister Dan Tehan.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/you-protest-you-pay-education-minister-s-bid-to-bolster-free-speech-at-universities-20180921-p5057h.html

    Does this bolster free speech? Or shut it down? Perhaps Tehan will be questioned on this by Cassidy this morning.

  28. Bill‏ @Billablog · Sep 21

    There has been a definite change in Morrison’s demeanour since taking the leadership – like the goody-goody kid who has finally been given the prize and is now free to unleash his inner dickhead. Just like Tony Abbott.

  29. This Coal govt. continually blames individuals for not obtaining a job. This bumps up against the reality. Where are the jobs?

    Geoff Chambers‏ @Chambersgc

    A proposal for cashless welfare cards for unemployed teenagers to curb underage drinking and gambling was being worked up under the Turnbull government as a potential broader election policy to get under-18s off the dole and into the workforce

  32. ‘Students and activists who protest at campus events would have to pay for their own security ..’

    And how do you make that work?

    Arrest everyone in attendance so that you can get their banking details? (Well, that’s probably what he’d like to do…)

  34. lizzie

    The idea is that you make being unemployed so unendurable that the unemployed person accepts being underpaid and exploited without protest. As Abbott said, better a bad boss than no job at all.

  35. Morning all. Thanks BK. With ScumMo, like Rupert, it is important not to assme you are dealing with some evil genius. Neither are geniuses. The shameless and unethical pursuit of self interest explains everything about both.

    I was reading this series in the Guardian about how Murdoch operates. Control of his industry and financial self interest really does explain him.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/sep/22/follow-the-money-how-news-corp-wields-power-to-defend-its-interests

  37. poroti

    I approach with cynicism anything with the title of “True Crime” but in this case I think it’s really worth a read. Thanks for the link. 🙂

  38. zoomster

    I have read the restrictions of the “welfare card” with growing horror. Our lawmakers have absolutely no idea how low-income people live.

  39. lizzie,
    Every day that Showboating Scott Morrison gains in self-confidence he makes decisions that show himself to be too smart by half. Like the one this week to create a false impression that he would be watching the Cronulla Sharks rugby league team play the Melbourne Storm at a pub in his electorate, in order to impress Ray Hadley and his listeners. Only to be found out later to instead have been attending a Liberal Party fundraiser with a bunch of silvertail millionaires.

    He better be careful or Two Faced Morrison might become his nickname.

  40. Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden · 16h16 hours ago

    What a shit idea. You can’t even have a sit in anymore.! What’s the point of going to uni if you can’t behave like a 1970s hippy at least once

  41. zoomster,
    There is also the fact that young unemployed must take any job that is offered to them by their job service provider, no matter how bad, lest they lose their Newstart payment altogether!

  42. The thing I can’t understand is why Morrison believes that leading a government of Punishers and Straighteners will appeal to the electorate??

  43. Poroti

    I normally share Lizzie’s view on true crime type wbsites but the background on ScumMo and Mike Baird was interesting. Not so different to the young Liberals I met at uni a few years earlier in another state. Not very bright but desperate to prove themselves. I did not know that ABC’s Julia Baird was also Bruce Baird’s daughter.

    It would be an interesting question to ask ScumMo, Good Bloke, when was the last time his salary was under $300k, and not supplied by taxpayer funds? He has had a very entitled life, has our unelected PM. At least Gillard went to an election soon after the spill. ScumMo lacks the courage.

  46. Good morning all,

    Greetings from the cold and wet Macedon Ranges… must be an omen for next week’s AFL grand final.

    Two matches played … two incredible blowouts by supposedly powerhouse teams… does not auger well next week. The GF will either be a tightly fought contest or it will be all over by quarter time.

    Late Riser please put me down for 53 / 47.

  48. Lizzie

    For all our sakes I hope so. No wonder ScumMo wants all the whistle stop photo ops without questions. He must be terrified of getting grilled by any half competent journalist. The more I listen to ScumMo, the more I think there is no real difference between ScumMo and Dutton. It is a case of pot-ay-to or pot-ah-to.

    Howard was always linking the strength of our 90s/00s cricket team with his own leadership. Maybe the current form of the Aussie cricket team and chesting scandal is a reflection of current Liberal leadership?

    Have a good day all.

  49. The Divine Miranda whips out the the turd polisher and gives Fozzie a touch up. .

    ONE MONTH IN, SCOMO’S LOOKING BETTER THAN EVER
    MIRANDA DEVINE WHEN it comes down to it, people vote with their hearts rather than with their heads, and Scomo is winning Australians over one genial moment at a time, writes Miranda Devine.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/rendezview/one-month-in-scomos-looking-better-than-ever/news-story/52ed147f44a5faf9909c8fc341d64f33

Comments Page 41 of 52
1 … 40 41 42 … 52

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *