BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll and Essential Research polls conducted last weekend, both of which were devastating for the Coalition. A trend measure like BludgerTrack is not at its best when a landslip like this occurs, and the latest result is characterised by an anomalous surge in the “others”. This is to do with the Coalition and Labor primary vote trends being calculated with very different smoothing parameters, which means the Coalition vote has caught up with the new situation but Labor’s has not.
Nonetheless, the two-party vote has ended up much where the two latest polls are, causing Labor to gain three on the seat projection in Victoria and one apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. All we have had so far on leadership ratings is one preferred prime minister result from Newspoll, which will not be useable until a sufficient base of Morrison-versus-Shorten data becomes available. Full results as always from the link below.
In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission has finally published preference data from the Super Saturday by-elections. These show that the Liberal National Party’s resounding defeat in Longman was achieved despite the fact that 67.74% out of the 15.91% One Nation vote flowed to them as preferences, a dramatic change from their 43.51% in 2016. Labor also had weaker flows of Greens preferences, down from 80.70% to 76.52% in Longman and 86.12% to 73.31% in Braddon. Also in Braddon, Labor received 74.34% of preferences from independent Craig Garland and a bare majority from Shooters Fishers and Farmers.
The full distribution of preferences reveal that the Liberal Democrats edged out the Greens to take second place in Fremantle, obtaining a strong flow of preferences to reach 22.20% to the Greens’ 21.72% at the penultimate count (14,037 to 13,734). Labor’s Josh Wilson prevailed with a two-party margin over the Liberal Democrats of 23.33%. In Perth, the Greens just edged out an independent to reach the final count, at which Labor’s Patrick Gorman was elected with a 13.10% margin.
adrian @ #1148 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 5:39 pm
Who’s the woman with Bannon?
The Greens’ primary vote has been consistent – at around 10%, and the preference flow is circa 80% to Labor, so please stop the anti-Green rhetoric – they’re Labor’s conscience.
ar “Both Labor and Greens should focus on reducing the total number of seats that the Coalition (and other right-wing minors) win. Each seat they take from that cohort nets +1 for the forces of good.”
That’s my view. Here is the enemy:
“The Greens’ primary vote has been consistent – at around 10%, and the preference flow is circa 80% to Labor, so please stop the anti-Green rhetoric – they’re Labor’s conscience.”
No they are they crazy egomaniac aunty at the BBQ who never ever does anything but talks herself up the whole BBQ until you want to kill her.
The Greens have a vested interest in not doing that, I suppose, given that their only path to relevance is to hold the balance of power in a Labor minority government. But Labor doesn’t, and shouldn’t waste its time and resources trying to skim seats off the Greens.
The fact that the Greens have that vested interest is precisely why Labor absolutely must respond. And the premise that Lab = Grn is simply not correct. A Green is obviously better than a Lib or Nat or PHON et al. But it is nothing like having another member in caucus.
Steve
Exactly 🙂
lizzie says:
Sunday, September 2, 2018 at 3:19 pm
Dr Siobhan O’Dwyer @Siobhan_ODwyer · Aug 31
Hey @Qantas, my name is Dr O’Dwyer. My ticket says Dr O’Dwyer. Do not look at my ticket, look at me, look back at my ticket, decide it’s a typo, and call me Miss O’Dwyer. I did not spend 8 years at university to be called Miss.
______________________
Siobhan O’Dwyer is trying too hard. If you have to insist on the title, as some here do, you are not worthy of it.
Google tells me that she is Senior Lecturer in Ageing and Family Care. She has qualifications in Psychology, Human Movement Studies, and Higher Education.
I had not heard of her before.
There are doctorates, and there are doctorates. Ask anyone familiar with the University system.
Marie Curie, who won two Nobel Prizes, is rarely if ever called Dr Curie.
She gained a doctorate, but really it was superfluous when you have that sort of ability and achievements.
Einstein is known just by his family name. He doesn’t need a Dr in front of it. That is real class.
Or Richard Feynman. He wrote a book called “Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman! ”
Note the Mister. Though to be fair, he had a Nobel Prize and a doctorate. But when you are as clever as he was, the moniker doctorate is also superfluous. He was probably prouder of his ability to play bongos and crack safes than his other achievements. The world thinks otherwise.
Charles Darwin doesn’t need a Dr in front of his name to be recognised for his achievements.
Poor blighter, all he ever got was University of Edinburgh Medical School (medicine, no degree), Christ’s College, Cambridge Bachelor of Arts (1831) and a Master of Arts (1836)
What is important is what you have achieved, not the alphabet soup after your name.
Marie Curie was a Doctor. So is Siobhan O’Dwyer.
Compare and contrast.
In Britain, male surgeons go up in status when they earn the right to be called “Mister” instead of “Doctor”.
He has explored in excruciating detail a not very interesting question
One of the rare occasions I actually agree with you Nick. It’s not a particularly interesting point. The fact that Bandt has a vulnerability against Labor that he simply doesn’t have against the Libs shouldn’t be controversial at all. He’s got the advantage of incumbency, and about a 5% effective margin. But he isn’t unassailable.
“The Greens’ primary vote has been consistent – at around 10%, and the preference flow is circa 80% to Labor, so please stop the anti-Green rhetoric – they’re Labor’s conscience.”
No, Labor is Labor’s conscience
The fact that Greens supporters can’t see how claiming that the Greens are “Labor’s conscience” is offensive (and blatantly narcissistic) is precisely why they are so affronted when Labor supporters turn the moral torch back on to them
[‘Who’s the woman with Bannon?’]
Obviously a woman with taste.
“Siobhan O’Dwyer is trying too hard. If you have to insist on the title, as some here do, you are not worthy of it. ”
I think this kind of bullshit attitude is how you get Trump, and deserve him when you do. Qualifications aren’t everything, they aren’t the be all and end all, but they are something and it is quite pathetic to try and ignore them or talk them down. My whole career bar two years with main stream law firms, it has been a ‘don’t mention the qualifications’ and it is because the organisations are run by clowns without them, who don’t do it very well and don’t have the courage to acknowledge those who could and did.
WWP – Ms O’Dwyer can call herself anything she wants. She can call herself the Empress of Australia if she so desires. But she sure as hell shouldn’t demand that me or anyone else address her by an honorific. That is my decision, not hers.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/09/01/bludgertrack-54-7-45-3-labor/comment-page-23/#comment-2891446
The significant growth in CBD, just north of the CBD and Docklands new high-rise flats has continued since 2016 and those areas have more Liberal votes than ALP votes. Combined with the loss of more ALP friendly Ascot Vale and Flemmington and the Liberals coming second in the seat for the first time since 2004 increasing their profile in the seat, it may be enough to keep the Liberal candidate ahead of the ALP candidate at the 3CP stage.
It isn’t Kelly O’Dwyer but someone called Siobhan O’Dwyer, who admittedly I’ve never heard of, and can’t understand why people are arking up about something she posted on twitter.
By the look of those qualifications, Dr O’Dwyer is not the person they are going to wake up mid-pacific when someone down the back is feeling a little queasy
Which is why many if not most medical practitioners do not call themselves Dr when they book flights
This item in today’s Daily ToiletPaper May have slipped our attention…
“WWP – Ms O’Dwyer can call herself anything she wants. She can call herself the Empress of Australia if she so desires. But she sure as hell shouldn’t demand that me or anyone else address her by an honorific. That is my decision, not hers.”
Yes of course it is everyone’s own personal decision whether or not they are going to be polite decent human beings with the dignity to respect others and their achievements, or rude, pathetic Trump like scum on the bottom of the shoe of humanity.
You’re entitled to your opinion, Roger, even though you’ve got the politics wrong – the Greens being the extreme-Left of the Labor Party, established when the Right took it over due to pragmatism – Hawke.
“Which is why many if not most medical practitioners do not call themselves Dr when they book flights”
Academics with significant qualifications should cower less and lead more, otherwise the rude ignorant Trumps of the world do.
“Siobhan O’Dwyer is trying too hard. If you have to insist on the title, as some here do, you are not worthy of it. ”
I think this kind of bullshit attitude is how you get Trump, and deserve him when you do. Qualifications aren’t everything, they aren’t the be all and end all, but they are something and it is quite pathetic to try and ignore them or talk them down. My whole career bar two years with main stream law firms, it has been a ‘don’t mention the qualifications’ and it is because the organisations are run by clowns without them, who don’t do it very well and don’t have the courage to acknowledge those who could and did.
_________________
And that attitude, this dependence on pieces of paper, is exactly how you get the result of this bloke being given a top job because of what he said were his qualifications:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/gaping-holes-in-cv-of-the-man-running-one-of-sydney-s-most-important-councils-20180829-p500jt.html
When City of Parramatta councillors met recently to select a chief executive, they had before them a resume that might have seemed fitting for the unprecedented investment flowing into the area.
Mark Stapleton, who had been the council’s director of property for the past year, had his hand up for the top job and was touting his experience with “$35bn of tenders & projects.”
In his application, Mr Stapleton recalled standing on “the empty slab of concrete that was Barangaroo 10 years ago going through a design & capital raising proposal for $4.5bn with Phil Kearns & David Gonski.”
The experience had been an “incredible” one,” Mr Stapleton wrote, “where government private sector and a strong team can create an exceptional outcome.”
However, neither Mr Kearns nor Mr Gonski can recall the $4.5 billion deal, or meeting Mr Stapleton. And other claims made by or about Mr Stapleton, who last month was appointed to lead the 1176-employee council, are under question.
When the City of Parramatta announced his appointment, it told residents about his “senior executive” positions at construction firms Leighton Contractors and John Holland.
Neither company would comment on former staff, but it is understood Mr Stapleton’s job at John Holland was as a design manager on a specific project. “This is not an executive position,” a source said.
The position of chief executive of the City of Parramatta, which comes with a salary around $500,000, is crucial to an array of multi-billion dollar initiatives.
The state government is proposing new metro and light rail lines through the area. It is moving the Powerhouse Museum to Parramatta, investing in the upgrade of the Riverside Theatre, and building a new stadium. Indeed, the entire “three cities” strategy of the Greater Sydney Commission hinges on Parramatta’s success.
And the city has enjoyed significant recent residential and commercial investment. It was in relation to one of these investments that Mr Stapleton first met controversy, when he was suspended from his job late last year by then chief executive Greg Dyer.
sprocket_ @ #1166 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 6:17 pm
Are they trying to butter us up for the costs we taxpayers are going to be forking out to schlep Barnaby around the country in his drought envoy role?
Btw I loved how the Insiders panel were scoffing in their dismissal of Barnaby and Tony’s envoy roles. Absolutely spot on that we have actual ministers for that thing, we don’t need special envoys, unless of course it’s all about giving these disgraced has-beens a job to soothe their wounded egos.
“And that attitude, this dependence on pieces of paper, is exactly how you get the result of this bloke being given a top job because of what he said were his qualifications:”
Well no you are confusing fraud with the appropriate recognition of academic achievement.
Antonbruckner11 says:
Sunday, September 2, 2018 at 8:14 pm
WWP – Ms O’Dwyer can call herself anything she wants. She can call herself the Empress of Australia if she so desires. But she sure as hell shouldn’t demand that me or anyone else address her by an honorific. That is my decision, not hers.
________________________
Absolutely.
Just call me Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports if you would.
No?
Ah well. Such is life.
If any type of Dr gets too much recognition it is the actual medical doctors, ‘take two Panadol and go to emergency if it get worse’. Really you went to university for 6 years, you did your GP qualification after that, and the best you’ve got is 4 minutes take a couple of Panadol and go to somewhere else if I’m wrong. Please.
“Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports”
No problem at all, a few to many words, but top of the day to you Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports. Remind me again how did you earn that title, it is quite a doozy.
WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, September 2, 2018 at 8:26 pm
“Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports”
No problem at all, a few to many words, but top of the day to you Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports. Remind me again how did you earn that title, it is quite a doozy.
_______________
Same way as Pig Iron Bob did.
Bullshit baffles brains.
I have a PhD, summa cum laude, from the UHK.
I don’t know;
With my MB BS I have saved a few lives – most memorably as a 2nd year resident doing a stat tracheotomy
With my PhD in obscure Federation/colonial NSW politics I have….um
See what you did there Don, is you equated a real academic achievement for people who worked hard and earned it, with something completely made up, like in your mind they are the same thing. As I said this is the kind of ‘thinking’* that gets your world run by corrupt crooks like Trump and you deserve it when it happens.
*thinking was used entirely ironically
They spend more money on This Treasonous Toad than the drought:
ABC News
Verified account @abcnews
60m60 minutes ago
Special Envoy for Drought @Barnaby_Joyce tells @PatsKarvelas his new position will entitle him to extra staff, but says he won’t receive a pay increase because it would be “profit from the crown”. Watch the full interview tonight on #NationalWrap from 9pm EST. #auspol
“I don’t know with mi MB BS I have saved a few lives – most memorably as a 2nd year resident doing a stat tracheotomy
With my PhD in obscure Federation/colonial NSW politics I have….um”
Yeah the mechanic is definitely smarter and better than the engineer who designed the car.
WWP – I don’t know why you keep dragging Trump into this. I see Dr as a truly meaningless title. The only reason I can think that someone would insist they are called “Dr” is because they want to assert they are better than the person they are dealing with (and certainly better than the poor staff at Qantas). Sorry, I’m not playing that game. I suspect that if Einstein told me he wanted to be called Dr, I would give him that honorific. Everybody else gets a vanilla one.
The tactics of the Liberal Party strategist when co-opted into the UK election was to highlight that, to govern, Labour would require the numbers elected in Scotland
So in the event of a Labour win the Scots would take control of Westminster
The result was what it was
The same tactic is used by the same practitioners in Australia – except substituting the Greens for the Scots
So a vote for Labor is a vote for the Greens because the tail will wag the dog
And the results have been what they have been
The Liberal strategists used the DLP for a generation – and now they use the Greens including by the strategy they are canvassing in Victoria
The attack extension is that Labor will rely on the Greens to hold government (given a hung parliament, the Greens endorse Labor and Labor relies on the Greens neither of which is a given) and the Liberals will push this line
And on titles, my business cards back in the day never carried my title – I always viewed that to the client base my title was irrelevant and a wank
On the remote chance that someone is feeling remorseful about skipping church today, here’s a good dose of hellfire for you, with a conductor designed specially.
(classic music alert)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHw4GER-MiE
The engineer who designed the car …God?
Just caught up on bludger after a day off.
I see that young Nicholas is pontificating about how unpopular centrist democrat candidates are and if only Hillary bent the knee in 2016 we’d have President Bernie or President Warren now instead of Drumpf.
Leaving aside the point that Hilary won the popular vote it is a massive assumption that the tens of millions of Americans in the political centre would have turned out for Bernie or Warren in the same numbers as they did for Hillary.
Young Propeller Cap Boy also ignores that for millions of Americans, especially educated women – Hillary was THEIR candidate. Sure, many got over the disappointment of 2008 and turned out for Obama but it’s a hell of an assumption to think they’d ignore a snub for Hillary again. Bottom line – unless the other side of politics completely loses it shit the progressive side in America can only win with the support of the centre – even then, after 8 years incumbency its a tough ask.
Professor Allan Lichtman‘s analysis of the election indicates that Hillary actually did better – much better – than historical trends would indicate.
I also note that there is a tipping contest for Labor seats won at the next election. My initial reaction is decry such hubris, however given that we are now also apparently entertaining the possibility of (not Willie) Bandt getting rolled in Melbourne I guess I should go all in – so put me down for 127 seats!
Adrian: “Not the greatest photo for the ABC to use in the promotion of the next 4 Corners”
Who’s the woman with the fascist?
Not only will he get extra staff, but he will also receive the generous parliamentary travel allowances that come with all his traipsing across the country. Him and Abbott.
Why have actual ministers?
“WWP – I don’t know why you keep dragging Trump into this. I see Dr as a truly meaningless title. The only reason I can think that someone would insist they are called “Dr” is because they want to assert they are better than the person they are dealing with (and certainly better than the poor staff at Qantas). Sorry, I’m not playing that game. I suspect that if Einstein told me he wanted to be called Dr, I would give him that honorific. Everybody else gets a vanilla one.”
Trump is the ultimate outcome of a lack of respect for genuine achievement. And I reject your premise that someone not wanting to be called ‘Miss’ thinks they are better than anyone else, just because they want to be called by the title they earned through hard work. It just means they value what they did. I’ve been on planes and ‘the poor staff’ FMD they trip over each other to be ultra polite, so long as you are in business class or better.
We live in a world that values Trump and does not value actual achievement.
I was a little hard on the medical doctors, but lets be frank they are all Drs there is not a lot special about their Drs, except well they graduated and earned the title, you know like everyone else who graduates and earns the title. But all due credit to them they have the most effective and most ruthless union their is.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=L5jI9I03q8E
Nina Simone…..brilliant
Sohar @ #1186 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 6:37 pm
Nobody seems to know.
“You’re entitled to your opinion, Roger, even though you’ve got the politics wrong – the Greens being the extreme-Left of the Labor Party, established when the Right took it over due to pragmatism – Hawke.”
Sorry but that is a really facile assertion.
The older Greens vote (for instance that were around and voting when Hawke was PM) would also include a lot of old democrats and petro georgio liberals. Most of the Greens vote would be people who weren’t around then. They are as likely to be the children of Liberal voters as they are Labor voters.
In terms of the people who have shifted their vote from Labor to the Greens over time (some fraction of the Greens vote), they are primarily the post modern “social democrat” type that have effectively broken their solidarity with the half of the country that need Labor governments (whose lives are worse under tory governments).
These people are in no way Labor’s conscience. Those that still support Labor or represent Labor are Labor’s conscience
Ali France
@alifrance5
4m4 minutes ago
@QLDLabor voted yesterday 4 changes that give people with a disability & or mental illness greater ability to participate in our party & democracy.
Labor Enabled & I fought 4 these changes & now we lead the way in giving disabled people a voice in politics.
#alpqconf #auspol
“Adrian: “Not the greatest photo for the ABC to use in the promotion of the next 4 Corners”
Who’s the woman with the fascist?
Nobody seems to know.”
I’m confused now I thought it was Sarah Ferguson obviously, but I must be wildly wrong I’m easily tricked by a changed hair colour or even different makeup.
I suspect Eric Abetz is miffed he didn’t jag a ‘Special Envoy’ role.
Maybe he could check on the rat eradication program on Macquarie Island?
It is Sarah Ferguson – she interviews the genuine RWNJ Bannon.
[‘Which is why many if not most medical practitioners do not call themselves Dr when they book flights’]
Reference to made to parable of the Good Samaritan.
… anything but late for dinner.
WeWantPaul @ #2445 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 8:25 pm
Um. That’s a bit harsh. I’m a physician (MBBS FRACP) with a PhD (Leukotriene B4 in cystic fibrosis – 5years dealing working with cystic sputum, the most disgusting substance yet discovered*) and I have done a few desperate resuscitations in unusual settings (5000m – both inside and outside aircraft). If someone uses the title to my face – they want something. I do draw the line at my dentist’s receptionist insisting that her boss be called doctor.
* One of my CF patients (facing her first lung transplant) told me the following:
What’s the worst thing about having a lung transplant?
Coughing up somebody else’s sputum.
Gotta love gallows humour.
Why is 48-35 a catastrophe for Turnbull against Dutton, but 45-40 is full steam ahead for Morrison against the same opponent?
Observer, that is precisely the reason why Melbourne is not a “zero sum contest” as was previously suggested
Knocking Bandt out of Melbourne at this election would mean at the next election that line of attack would be muted.
It will also make it far harder for the Greens to run around other inner Melbourne seats telling people they are going to be part of coallition governments with Labor
The Green v Labor battles in inner Melbourne are massive negative sum games for the progressive politics