BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll and Essential Research polls conducted last weekend, both of which were devastating for the Coalition. A trend measure like BludgerTrack is not at its best when a landslip like this occurs, and the latest result is characterised by an anomalous surge in the “others”. This is to do with the Coalition and Labor primary vote trends being calculated with very different smoothing parameters, which means the Coalition vote has caught up with the new situation but Labor’s has not.
Nonetheless, the two-party vote has ended up much where the two latest polls are, causing Labor to gain three on the seat projection in Victoria and one apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. All we have had so far on leadership ratings is one preferred prime minister result from Newspoll, which will not be useable until a sufficient base of Morrison-versus-Shorten data becomes available. Full results as always from the link below.
In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission has finally published preference data from the Super Saturday by-elections. These show that the Liberal National Party’s resounding defeat in Longman was achieved despite the fact that 67.74% out of the 15.91% One Nation vote flowed to them as preferences, a dramatic change from their 43.51% in 2016. Labor also had weaker flows of Greens preferences, down from 80.70% to 76.52% in Longman and 86.12% to 73.31% in Braddon. Also in Braddon, Labor received 74.34% of preferences from independent Craig Garland and a bare majority from Shooters Fishers and Farmers.
The full distribution of preferences reveal that the Liberal Democrats edged out the Greens to take second place in Fremantle, obtaining a strong flow of preferences to reach 22.20% to the Greens’ 21.72% at the penultimate count (14,037 to 13,734). Labor’s Josh Wilson prevailed with a two-party margin over the Liberal Democrats of 23.33%. In Perth, the Greens just edged out an independent to reach the final count, at which Labor’s Patrick Gorman was elected with a 13.10% margin.
Antonbruckner11 @ #995 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 3:31 pm
Yeah, pretty much exactly this. Her complaint comes across as “I devoted 8 year of my life towards earning a fancy title”.
“How is the A.L.P going to take Melbourne when Bandt has a FPV of 43%?”
uuuummm, because he doesn’t get a PV of 43% at the upcoming election????
put me down for 100 seats and the election on sat 9/3/19 please.
It occurs to me that when Morrison said that Dutton has no case to answer re. au pairs, the gig’s up.
He (Morrison) has more than a few problems; their relationship fraught.
uuuummm, because he doesn’t get a PV of 43% at the upcoming election????
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well good luck with that.
There is also the chance that voters switching away from the Liberals and towards the ALP will be cancelled out by the redistribution and the growth in flats bringing in more Liberal voters and thus the ALP remaining third on 3CP and thus Bandt being elected on ALP preferences.
The Libs may abandon inner suburban seats and leave it for Labor and The Greens to duke it out.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/will-greens-eyes-be-smiling-libs-may-not-contest-left-leaning-seats-at-state-poll-20180902-p501b2.html
Lets say Bandt drops to 37%; FPV -7%
ALP gets 31% +7%
LIBs get around the same 25%
Then there is the
Sex Party 3.5%
Animal Justice 1.8%
Drug law Reform 1.2%
How does the ALP win on this 7% swing? I don’t see it
Roger, there’s no chance that Bandt will lose Melbourne.
“Roger, there’s no chance that Bandt will lose Melbourne.”
Compelling set of arguments there
If Labor take 7% directly off bandt – and the libs direct preferences to Labor – then they are almost monties
If Labor take 7% directly off bandt – and the libs direct preferences to Labor – then they are almost monties
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lol. With the other left wing parties preferences the Greens only need a quarter of lib votes to win. I think they will get more than a quarter of lib votes.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bK2lhTmnR-0
“The seats in question include Labor’s marginal Richmond and Brunswick electorates and the Greens-held seats of Melbourne and Northcote.”
In Richmond the labor member has won 4 elections in a row, with and against the tide swing. Justine Elliot is a popular and intelligent member, she is very unlikely to lose to the greens. This used to be a nationals seat but it is very multi dimensional now. The greens to win? Tell’em their dreaming!
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/09/01/bludgertrack-54-7-45-3-labor/comment-page-23/#comment-2891413
Not running in Reps seats would hurt their Senate Campaign and so they are unlikely to do it if the half-Senate (or whole Senate if they were to try a DD) is at the same time. Melbourne also has lots of Liberal members and donors who would be quite upset in the Liberals did not run, meaning if they do fail to run in seats, Wills and Cooper (currently Batman) are more likely to be abandoned than Melbourne.
I’m sure such articles will smooth the transition from Lucien to Scrott.
Scott Morrison secretly hatched a plan to overthrow Malcolm Turnbull months ago, using a hapless Peter Dutton as an “unwitting stooge”, according to sensational new claims.
An investigation by The Saturday Paper has unmasked the new Prime Minister, also known as ScoMo, as the real villain in the assault on the Liberal Party leadership, detailing the shocking depths of his alleged betrayal.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12118104
“lol. With the other left wing parties preferences the Greens only need a quarter of lib votes to win. I think they will get more than a quarter of lib votes.”
Before you lol too much you might want to actually do some research about the proportion of preference flows that go from those parties to the Greens ahead of Labor. The sex party generally direct preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens and I’m pretty sure AJP have done so before as well.
nath:
Adam will be relected – no doubting it.
Antony Green: Melbourne Electorate
In 2010 the Liberal Party recommended preferences for the Greens and the flows were 20% to Labor and 80% Green. In 2013 the Liberal preference recommendation was for Labor and the flows were 66.3% to Labor and 33.7% to the Greens.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/09/01/bludgertrack-54-7-45-3-labor/comment-page-23/#comment-2891420
The Richmond seat that is being discussed there is the Victorian state seat of Richmond, based on the inner-Melbourne suburb and has never been held by the Nationals, not the Commonwealth seat of Richmond in NSW.
So the greens should get around 1/3 of Lib FPV into 2PP. Greens win Melb pretty easy even with a 7% FPV vote against them.
Roger I am giving you a 7% swing in this scenario which I don’t think will occur anyway.
I’d much prefer Kerryn Phelps than Abbott’s sister, just personally.
a r @ #1101 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 6:26 pm
You’d have to be a pretentious twat to insist on “Dr” on your boarding pass. What did she expect? A free upgrade?
In my experience, most real doctors (i.e. PhD’s) don’t use the title “Dr” anyway. It makes people think they are a medical practitioner, but the title is essentially a courtesy title in medicine. Countries vary widely concerning who can use the title – but in Australia, I believe the title “Dr” is not regulated – it can be used by anyone. It is the title “Medical Practitioner” that is regulated.
I don’t really understand Victorian state politics, despite spending some time in Spring St. What is it with those AFL coloured ties everyone of the be-suited seemed to be wearing?
Having cleared that up, the accepted wisdom in bi-cameral jurisdictions is that you man every booth in every electorate. You may have no chance in the lower house, but those 20-30% of low information voters who take your HTV and follow it all tally up in the Upper House.
I can understand not wasting money in a no-winnable by-election, but not in the Big Show.
The demographic changes that made MELB Green have only increased since 2016.
briefly:
I love Sophie Monk, principally for her intellect, not for her looks.
sprocket:
I’m with you. Then I remember just how much influence Michael Kroger has over the Victorian Liberals and their nonsensical actions are explained.
My former dentist liked to be referred to as “Doctor”. He wasn’t by me.
“Roger I am giving you a 7% swing in this scenario which I don’t think will occur anyway.”
It won’t be 7% but it doesn’t need to be. It probably only needs to be 4 to 5%….which it probably won’t (I have previously conceded) but it is still very possible
I reckon he’ll hold it but it will be close and perhaps even won’t be known on the night.
Well, poroti, Dutton was a former QPS drug detective – enough said.
Sprocket
I imagine those seats the Libs may not contest are all within the same area for the Victorian upper house. Ie one of the 8 regions thats comprise the electoral districts of the upper house.
My former dentist liked to be referred to as “Doctor”. He wasn’t by me.
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The ‘Doctor’ scene from SPIES LIKE US 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Lge2_H_8IQ
“The demographic changes that made MELB Green have only increased since 2016.”
I think it has slowed significantly. The crest of the demographic change wave is in the surrounding seats, now
Dutton: “My Biggest Regret Is I Wasted Time Learning To Smile”
http://www.theshovel.com.au/2018/08/28/dutton-my-biggest-regret-is-i-wasted-time-learning-to-smile/
Shut up Roger. The greens are going to win that seat. suffer in your jocks.
How does the ALP win on this 7% swing? I don’t see it
1. I don’t for a second think Bandt will drop 7% pv. But for the sake of the hypothetical you have posed…
2. They do it easily.
Sex, Animal Justice and Drug Law reform preferenced the Liberals at over 30% in 2016. You should get a better dealer if you think Labor wouldn’t get a better slice of that, but let’s for the sake of the argument assume they don’t, so Labor’s 31 goes to 33 and Bandt goes to 41.5. Let’s be generous and even give him the 0.5% you haven’t accounted for in the primaries of your hypothetical to 42%.
To win Labor only needs 68% of the Lib prefs. Essentially the same percentage as they got in 2013 when Labor was seriously on the nose and heading for a hiding.
And that’s after we’ve been more than generous in giving Bandt a bigger share of the left leaning others than he got against the Liberals last time. On these numbers Labor would shit it in.
It’s hilarious seeing dickheads completely ignoring all the times I have said explicitly I expect Bandt to hold, but making the point that it isn’t the forgone conclusion. Let me try and make it even more clear for the slow learners…
– If the Libs don’t pref against Bandt – Bandt wins.
– If Bandt’s pv holds up – Bandt wins.
Only if both of those propositions don’t hold does the potential for a Labor win come into play.
Anyone still struggling to keep up?
Even at that point it is clearly advantage Bandt.
The maths from there are quite simple however. Yes Tom the Libs might stay in second. They might even win the fucking election. Do you want to put money on it? It is extremely unlikely that Labor won’t get back to 2nd this time round, not impossible, but ridiculously unlikely thanks to Trumble’s necking. Once that happens it is a simple matter of will enough Liberal prefs (see premise 1) get Labor over Bandt’s reduced PV (see premise 2)?
Yes. On some quite reasonable (far more reasonable than Nath’s 7pt Grn-Lab swap) scenarios there are indeed enough prefs to get Labor up.
So one more time (slowly) for the dummies…
If and ONLY if Bandt loses a few points off his PV AND the Liberals preference against him, Labor has a chance (I’d guesstimate it as well under 50%) chance of winning the seat on Lib prefs.
The point isn’t and never has been that Labor is favourites, or even 50/50. Without any accurate polling (and bugger all chance of getting accurate seat polling) they are probably something like the same sort of odds as oh I don’t know 538’s odds on Trump winning the last Presidential election. Very unlikely, but not insignificant.
adrian:
Surely you could find a more flattering pic of Dutton?
“Shut up Roger. The greens are going to win that seat. suffer in your jocks.”
But how deliciously funny will it be if they lose it?
Anyway, he’ll probably hold it and I’ll console myself on the Greens with their lowest Senate reps since the 2007-10 term and….winning government of course!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FZMrti8QcPA
Just like those blue ties.
So ratsak calls us dickheads, dummies and slow learners but still thinks there is little to no chance of the ALP taking Melbourne. Thanks Champ, I mean Chump!
I think there will be blood in the water of Lake Burley Griffin if it’s true that ScumMo double crossed Dutts and Abbott!
Interesting that Dutton is publicly putting blame for the current focus on him with elements of his own Party
But by extension this excludes those who voted for him in the leadership ballot
So the publicity is coming from those who did not vote for him in the leadership ballot – which is a bare majority of the membership of the Parliamentary Party
That bare majority who voted for Borrison
Now we have the impressive Borrison saying nothing has been put past him that would support the premise of the attacks on Dutton
So why doesn’t Borrison call his henchmen off the attacks on Dutton?
And why do his henchmen not follow Borrison’s instruction?
The legal position relied on to defend Dutton is one thing
The optics is an entirely different matter – it is not what you know it is who you know and money talks
The bigger picture given the scale and continuity of attack on Dutton and his henchmen (bullying and threats) is that Borrison is nothing more and nothing less than not Dutton to a bare majority of the Parliamentary Party and therefore not secure in his leadership
Once this bare majority kill off Dutton where does the leadership issue go then?
Watch this space
And the result of the leadership ballot says the options do not include Bishop
Coorman needs a shift to a Lower House seat – and therefore needs to signal his ambition
Who else is there?
Who do the “anyone but Dutton” bare majority champion once they fatally damage Dutton and fatally damage Borrison due to his defence of Dutton?
A defence Borrison is forced to because of numbers on the floor of the house – numbers which will hold IF Wentworth is not retained
Borrison is hopelessly compromised on the numbers – both within the Party and in the Lower House
@Cofessions
I’m pretty sure I saw ScoMo wear it when he landed in QLD…
Could be after that…
ratsak @ #1137 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 7:13 pm
Yes, very much so. Greens vs. Labor is a zero-sum game. Whichever side gets the seat it’s a net change of +0 for the forces of good. It’s not worth squabbling over. Both Labor and Greens should focus on reducing the total number of seats that the Coalition (and other right-wing minors) win. Each seat they take from that cohort nets +1 for the forces of good.
The Greens have a vested interest in not doing that, I suppose, given that their only path to relevance is to hold the balance of power in a Labor minority government. But Labor doesn’t, and shouldn’t waste its time and resources trying to skim seats off the Greens.
He has explored in excruciating detail a not very interesting question (the remote prospect of the ALP winning a seat from a popular Greens incumbent).
Not the greatest photo for the ABC to use in the promotion of the next 4 Corners:
nath @ #1095 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 6:20 pm
Nath
Well I guess if the libs did VERY badly then they could fall below Labor. However their preferences would need to go at least 86% to the ALP to knock of Bandt
Fun fact: BludgerTrack, the rigorously compiled and carefully weighted aggregate of all the published scientific opinion polls, and the bread and butter of this blog, currently estimates that the Greens’ national primary vote will change by 0 percent from its 2016 level.