BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll trend measurement undergoes a convulsion as the land slides to Labor. Also: final by-election results show a dramatic change in One Nation preference flows compared with the election.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll and Essential Research polls conducted last weekend, both of which were devastating for the Coalition. A trend measure like BludgerTrack is not at its best when a landslip like this occurs, and the latest result is characterised by an anomalous surge in the “others”. This is to do with the Coalition and Labor primary vote trends being calculated with very different smoothing parameters, which means the Coalition vote has caught up with the new situation but Labor’s has not.

Nonetheless, the two-party vote has ended up much where the two latest polls are, causing Labor to gain three on the seat projection in Victoria and one apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. All we have had so far on leadership ratings is one preferred prime minister result from Newspoll, which will not be useable until a sufficient base of Morrison-versus-Shorten data becomes available. Full results as always from the link below.

In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission has finally published preference data from the Super Saturday by-elections. These show that the Liberal National Party’s resounding defeat in Longman was achieved despite the fact that 67.74% out of the 15.91% One Nation vote flowed to them as preferences, a dramatic change from their 43.51% in 2016. Labor also had weaker flows of Greens preferences, down from 80.70% to 76.52% in Longman and 86.12% to 73.31% in Braddon. Also in Braddon, Labor received 74.34% of preferences from independent Craig Garland and a bare majority from Shooters Fishers and Farmers.

The full distribution of preferences reveal that the Liberal Democrats edged out the Greens to take second place in Fremantle, obtaining a strong flow of preferences to reach 22.20% to the Greens’ 21.72% at the penultimate count (14,037 to 13,734). Labor’s Josh Wilson prevailed with a two-party margin over the Liberal Democrats of 23.33%. In Perth, the Greens just edged out an independent to reach the final count, at which Labor’s Patrick Gorman was elected with a 13.10% margin.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,317 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

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  1. It is amazing really when you consider all the coups in federal and state governments in Australia over the last 20 years or so – this must surely be the worst immediate polling outcome ever for a government. And that includes other “accidental” leaders like Denis Napthine in Victoria – if I remember rightly even he got a boost.

    (From last night’s discussion)

    Dio – yes Daniel Johns gave on some TV show (I think to Andrew Denton) years ago a very insightful first person description of anorexia nervosa.

  2. Manafort associate Sam Patten’s guilty plea could help Mueller nail Cambridge Analytica for rigging 2016 election

    The Paul Manafort associate who pleaded guilty Friday as part of a cooperation agreement could help investigators fill in some blanks about Cambridge Analytica’s work for the Trump campaign.

    Patten worked at the Oregon officer of Cambridge Analytica’s parent company, SCL Group, where he helped the data company develop voter targeting operations ahead of the 2014 midterm elections.

    The lobbyist described that work on his professional website, saying that he helped conduct beta tests of voter micro-targeting that he boasted were “adopted by at least one major U.S. presidential candidate.”

  3. Legal expert on MSNBC explains how Trump is playing a ‘very dangerous game’ with Mueller

    President Donald Trump is engaging in a “very dangerous game” with his constant attacks on special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigations, Lawfare Blog co-founder Ben Wittes explained to MSNBC’s Katy Tur on Friday.

    The host put on-screen a graphic listing the “evidence” that special counsel has in his possession that the public has yet to see.

  4. Fox News’ Chris Wallace: Trump only has himself to blame for the Mueller probe

    President Donald Trump continued to wage battle against his Attorney General this week, attacking Jeff Sessions for recusing himself in the Russia investigation.

    Sessions opted out of the probe to avoid a conflict of interest, since he participated in Donald Trump’s campaign.

    “Remember, the recusal of Sessions did not lead to the special counsel. It was the firing of Comey, of James Comey, the FBI director that lead to the appointment of the special counsel,” he pointed out.

    “The only person the president can blame for that is himself.”

  5. Maude Lynne

    Interesting article, but yes it only touches on Murdoch really.

    There was an article in The Australian something like “What explains Rudd’s rant?” – I didn’t/couldn’t read it – I’d say the reality of Rupert Murdoch probably does.

    Off to work – looking forward to BK’s ever excellent collection.

  6. and phoenixRED thanks for all the USA stuff – coming to some sort of head at a very bad time for Republicans in the mid-terms I think. Yes it may fire up the “base” but I don’t think it will really help in those in-between “purple” House seats.

  7. Dan Rather‏Verified account @DanRather

    “Disapproval of Donald Trump is at a new high, support for the Mueller investigation is broad and half of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll favor Congress initiating impeachment proceedings against the president.”

    Trouble for Trump: Disapproval at a high, 63% back Mueller, half favor impeachment

    America polled on Trump — Aug 31, WaPo/ABC
    • Record disapproval at 60%. Only 36% approval.
    • 55% Impeach, or don’t care (49% yes)
    • 63% support Mueller investigation
    • 64% don’t fire AG Sessions (only 19% yes, fire him)

  8. National Enquirer Had Decades of Trump Dirt. He Wanted to Buy It All.

    Federal investigators have provided ample evidence that President Trump was involved in deals to pay two women to keep them from speaking publicly before the 2016 election about affairs that they said they had with him.

    But it turns out that Mr. Trump wanted to go even further.

    He and his lawyer at the time, Michael D. Cohen, devised a plan to buy up all the dirt on Mr. Trump that the National Enquirer and its parent company had collected on him, dating back to the 1980s, according to several of Mr. Trump’s associates.

    The existence of the plan, which was never finalized, has not been reported before. But it was strongly hinted at in a recording that Mr. Cohen’s lawyer released last month of a conversation about payoffs that Mr. Cohen had with Mr. Trump.

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    This is an excellent essay from Jack Waterford on the calibre of our leaders.
    David Crowe does the forensics on the Liberal party coup and concludes that the idea that Morrison can “heal the wounds” in time for the election could be the biggest myth of the whole episode.
    Australian politics and the psychology of revenge.
    In a cracker of an article David Marr looks at the character of Abbott and the right wing rump.
    Karen Middleton explains how Morrison fooled everyone.
    Peter Hartcher outlines Julie Bishop’s achievements and policy stances quite positively but says that in the end she just couldn’t face her own party.
    Paul Bongiorno writes about the aftershocks of the Morrison victory.
    The AFR’s Andrew Clark says there will be no smooth sailing for new PM Scott Morrison with MPs and the party’s faithful still seething after last week’s blood-letting – and a minority government looming.
    Mike Seccombe tells us how the Murdoch press ran Turnbull from his office.
    Morrison’s dismissal of the au pair issue won’t make it go away.
    Meanwhile Peter Dutton has been accused of misleading parliament over the au pair visa saga.
    Nicole Hasham reports that the Coalition’s internal climate war risks damaging the economy after Europe declared it would reject a $15 billion trade deal with Australia unless the Morrison government keeps its pledge to cut pollution under the Paris accord.
    Laura Tingle says that after the spill the idea of compromise has not just been lost but made vile.
    Will the Morrison government be a reflection of the Howard years?,11845
    Paul Karp looks at Michaelia Cash’s appalling performance over the leaks on the AFP raid.
    More from Karen Middleton as she writes that as Barnaby Joyce, newly minted special envoy for drought, made a grab for Murray–Darling water, the royal commission into the basin faced yet another setback.
    In this op-ed Andrew Leigh looks at trends in inequality and poses a question in its conclusion.
    Ross Gittins dives deeply into the Productivity Commission’s report into inequality.
    Simon Cowan posits that it is poverty more than inequality that should be addressed.
    Adele Ferguson says that it was a watershed moment for small business when the shadow treasurer Chris Bowen promised a massive overhaul of the Australian Taxation Office if Labor wins government.
    Nicky Ison writes that the Coalition needs to get real with climate change and renewable if it wants to win the election.
    The clean energy lobby has warned the new federal energy minister Angus Taylor not to take wind and solar energy for granted because they are putting more downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices than the government’s market interventions.
    This court case shows cladding is an apartment owner’s nightmare.
    Martin McKenzie-Murray writes that amid fresh claims of abuse and cover-ups in the Catholic Church – this time targeting the Pope himself – dwindling numbers of Irish faithful reflect a growing disquiet.
    The NSW government has guaranteed a private sector loan, potentially in the hundreds of millions, to the consortium building the delayed CBD light rail project in order to ensure its completion. What an omnishambles this project has been!
    According to the Daily Telegraph, sledging Scott Morrison’s odd Pentecostal faith is entirely off-limits. Sydney bureau chief Ross Jones says this is rather rich, particularly coming from them.–again,11846
    Billions of dollars pouring out of bank-owned superannuation funds and into industry funds in response to revelations of misbehaviour at the banking royal commission are turning the union-backed funds into the country’s fastest-growing investors in Australia’s infrastructure boom. Not quite the outcome the government was angling for.
    Joanne McCarthy is not overly impressed by the Catholic church’s response to the royal commission’s recommendations.
    New mandatory sentencing laws for assaults against emergency workers could see frightened victims of family violence face jail time while their attackers go free.
    Here are the winners of this year’s Ernies awards.
    I hope the regulators come to grips with this Afterpay outfit before too many vulnerable people get hurt.
    The economic fortunes of big cities and their hinterlands have been diverging in many advanced economies. It’s a trend that poses a host of political, economic and social challenges as workers, including many new migrants, are drawn to big cities by good job prospects and high wages.
    A Jehovah’s Witness girl may be forced to receive a blood transfusion against her will this weekend when she gives birth in Melbourne. Hoo-bloody-ray!!
    Mercy Hospital Victoria was granted Supreme Court authority on Friday to give the girl blood as a “last resort” if she suffers a postpartum haemorrhage when induced into labour on Sunday afternoon.
    Germany’s politicians are now enabling the far right and the country could be heading for dark times as a result.
    The Senate Inquiry into financial practices in Aged Care kicks off again in Melbourne next week. When private equity operator Allity was asked by the Senate to disclose its corporate structure, it delivered a spaghetti mud-map so byzantine it would turn a Macbanker green with envy; a chart with no less than 23 entities, amazingly not one of them domiciled in the azure waters of the Caribbean Sea
    New polling shows that half of Americans want Trump to be impeached.
    And for “Arseholes of the Week” we have . . .

    Cartoon Corner

    Some pure evil from David Rowe.

    Two good ones from Peter Broelman.

    Paul Zanetti with a religious offering.

    A nice little gif from Glen Le Lievre.
    Matt Golding channels Loony Tunes for this one.

    Mark Knight with an ominous looking Dutton.

    Sean Leahy takes a punt at Dutton too.

    David Pope with our climate policy for the Pacific nations.
    Alan Moir with what’s head for Morrison.$zoom_0.662%2C$multiply_1%2C$ratio_1.776846%2C$width_1059%2C$x_0%2C$y_4/t_crop_custom/w_780/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/489a9cc529c92459fc4ea8d37ba21811cb7f181b
    Jon Kudelka with a little beauty!

  10. Former foreign minister Julie Bishop has announced she intends to contest the next election, a move that will set off speculation she still holds ambitions to be the Liberal party’s first female leader.

    In an interview with her local newspaper, The Cambridge Post, Ms Bishop also lashed out at her Liberal colleagues in Western Australia for not voting for her in her failed bid to become prime minister.

  11. The purpose of leaking stuff about Dutton is to boost Morrison, i.e. to suggest to, or remind, people that Morrison was the original minister for stopping the boats, before he was replaced by that lazy faker Dutton.

    Labor and the Greens need to do more than pursue Dutton, they need to convince people to reflect on the hypocrisy and poor behaviour of the Coalition government as a whole: rewarding mates and sycophants, degrading everyone else, and punishing/excluding those who disagree or criticise. This has been a pattern of behaviour that has remained consistent regardless of the person leading the party.

  12. Morning all. Bludgertrack is probably flattering to the COALition in sest numbers for the reasons William but the message is clear – the Libs are still headed for defeat.

    This story Rocket and BK posted underlines the Emericci theory of COALition energy policy. Economics and lower prices has nothing to do with subsidising coal mines and power plants. Now it will sctually cost us $15 billion in trade deals. It is only to help some miner mates recover the cost of what are now stranded assets. Nobody wants to buy them unless they are subsidised.

    So the only question I have is what deals have been done between the Liberals and coal mine owners? Whi in cabinet owns shares in coal? Or a mining lease? Or promised s directorship after politics? I’m sorry but Angus Taylor is not a fool. Personal gain is the only motive that explains the behaviour of a dying government. Plus they are desperate for cash to run their next election campaign.

  13. DisplayName

    It’s a pity that more people do not read the Saturday Paper, which often exposes shonky dealing by our politicians, and today has some revelations on how Morrison became the PM.

    After plunging into those murky depths, I shall carry a cloud of darkness around me for the day.

  14. Morning from what has been a cold week in Melbourne, that resulted in some rain.

    Thanks BK and Phoenix for today’s round up.


    Some bludgers posted Twitter conversation. of Matt Canavan and Turnbull’s son Alex.
    The inference being that Canavan’s extended family has a big interest in coal etc.

  15. With respect to Mueller’s deadline due to mid terms. Something to ponder….

    Tea Pain
    Tea Pain
    Tea Pain ain’t sure why everybody’s so worked up about Mueller’s “deadline.”

    Firstly, the 60-day “deadline” don’t start till Sept 7th.

    Secondly, Roger Stone, Don Jr. and Jared Kushner ain’t runnin’ for election.

    Thirdly, Rudy manufactured the 60-day deadline. Ignore him.

  16. Phillip Lodge‏ @phlogga · 11h11 hours ago

    Bolt doesnt care much for truth and accuracy. Mocking Julian Burnside, he and his mate from the IPA reckon Burnsides claim that 97% of climate scientists agree in global warming comes from a “dodgy survey” conducted by a NSW uni. Do your homework you berk. Have you heard of NASA?

  17. For those who really want to understand the world as it is not as it is according to Rupe.

    This is a stunningly good article. So much i did not know. Pretty bloody erudite in parts – particularly at the end.

    However the discussion of the sea/land power stuff for the first time makes sense – and explains Britain’s bizarre role – I had always thought it was no great power in Western Europe but it explains the UK/Russia battles which we all learned about if we read Rudyard Kipling’s Kim.

    In hindsight of course Kipling was describing a network of British spies who helped against Russia and seemed to rely on a system we would NOW identify as child abuse/paedophilia. Both the British spy master that Kim studied under (the hints were pretty broad) and I think his Pathan (afghani/Taleban) hero horseman had hints also (less obvious) of paedophilia.

    Any way after that digression about Kim, if there are not “too many words” I do recommend the always brilliant Pepe and the article below is much more informative than most.

    For those of you who can read and think you might understand why I fear a hot war and why I think from a US perspective trump’s attempted rapprochement with Russia was a good idea. Of course from an Australian point of view it is less clear, given the quid pro quo is hostility to China.

  18. This was really interesting; I wonder if the ALP would be so committed to eliminating ISDS clauses from our trade agreements:
    Lori Wallach, the director of Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch, has tracked ISDS cases for years. She told Truthout the preliminary agreement would end ISDS in the US and Canada. The ISDS system would only be available to a small group of energy and infrastructure investors who have contracted with the Mexican government as it denationalized oil and gas production, and only after they have exhausted other options. This carve-out has angered progressives who want the system eliminated completely, but Wallach said ending NAFTA’s corporate tribunal system in the US and Canada sets an important precedent for future trade deals.

    If you follow the link to ISDS deals it reveals just how much of a stranglehold corporates have on our (and other nations’)sovereignty.

  19. Victoria

    Thanks, not surprised about the Canavani family. The Qlders can be explained by the Gina, Clive and others money to the LNP. But what motivates the NSW Libs and Nats? Do the country bumpkins own leases over coal prospects?

    They are facing political ruin, and junking their prospects of any electoral recovery to push this through. Now we know it will damage the economy too. Why? You have to ask what is the personal motivation for them all?

  20. “This confirms what some of us knew about the show pony Rudd, and others refused to believe. Shame that the writer has not been able to produce the film on Julia Gillard.“

    Rudd! As bad as Abbott!

    So says pretentious wanker filmmaker insider. ‘oh, he’s so bad. He rewrote my campaign ad script. And he kept me waiting. The monster!’

    Handbags at 10 paces.

    He jumped the shark when he claimed a real fear that Rudd might win the 2013 … because like THAT possibility was worse than the alternative. Just think about that little opinion in light of everything that has happened since the 2013 election and get back to me.

  21. DTT – yes, Pepe has always been a very good read; one of the (very) few writing about geopolitics from a truly global perspective

  22. Socrates

    looking after their benefactors would be a big motivation. cant recall the details but doesnt BJoyce have some land in NSW that is running through a proposed rail link for coal distribution?

  23. Good observation about Dutton, Display Name.
    Four hundred years ago the King or Queen would bung rivals for the crown in The Tower, and/or terminate them.
    Murdoch and Morrison’s backers are now terminating Dutton. He has served his purpose. We don’t want him getting ideas he could challenge again, do we?
    Labor needs to take in the bigger picture on this Get Dutton Plan.

  24. Rudd and Abbott are two peas in a pod. Only difference is that Abbott is still in the parliament and able to cause disruption and chaos for the coalition govt, whereas Rudd is a just a parody character these days.

  25. Another WA Liberal MP is in the hot seat over the toppling of Turnbull. Our local papers here ran front page stories of Wilson’s silence on who he supported then his telling his story, as well as several angry letters to the editor over the leadership spills.

    In his response to a disaffected constituent, the Moore MP said he had received emails and phone calls from constituents with a “range of differing views” on last week’s coup.

    “I have read and considered most points of view, but I wish to point out that the decisions made by members of the party room were based on and guided by information that may not be publicly available,” Mr Goodenough wrote in the email obtained by The Weekend West.

    “Energy policy was the main issue of contention at the time, however there were many other issues of concern to different members and senators, including the inadequate way the Government was handling drought relief, defence shipbuilding contracts not being awarded to WA companies, the manner in which $444 million was allocated to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation and concerns over some of the taxation policies.”

  26. US President Donald Trump will not be travelling to Australia later this year.

    There was speculation Mr Trump would visit Australia in November as part of a tour that included stops in Singapore for the East Asia Summit and Papua New Guinea for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings.

    The White House announced on Friday Mr Trump would be sending Vice President Mike Pence.

  27. “Labor needs to take in the bigger picture on this Get Dutton Plan”…..Labor doesn’t have to do a thing, that is the beauty of it.

  28. citizen @ #43 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 5:45 am

    US President Donald Trump will not be travelling to Australia later this year.

    There was speculation Mr Trump would visit Australia in November as part of a tour that included stops in Singapore for the East Asia Summit and Papua New Guinea for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings.

    The White House announced on Friday Mr Trump would be sending Vice President Mike Pence.

    Isn’t this something you do when your not sure who the PM will be. 🙂

  29. Remember all those Herald scribes and ABC hacks falling over themselves to describe Andrew Hastie as a patriot and courageous etc when he used Parliament to dump on Chau Chak Wing as a commie spy and Australian traitor?

    Nobody much picked up on the nexus between the timing of the public revelations of allegations that had been known by intelligence services and politicians for several years and Chau Chak Wing’s defamation case trial against Jon Ganault, the ABC and Fairfax due to kick off the week after the revelations. Funny that, given that ‘the revelations’ were immediately adopted by the Herald and ABC to bolster their ‘truth’ defence. But to no avail, as it turns out.

    If we really had a fearless, independent and active CPG then Hastie taking Security matters into his own hands, contrary to the position of his own government, and to bolster the liberal party’s media mates would be a scandal of the highest order, instead of simply being a ‘meh’ footnote.

  30. Thanks ‘fess.
    “Energy policy was the main issue of contention at the time…” according to Ian Goodenough.
    Actually, it was a long way ahead of whatever was in second place.
    It’s almost certainly why Rupert flew in, why his newsrags went feral, undermining Turnbull completely, boosting Dutton.
    (Dutton had to be a joke candidate, surely).
    It was the idea that energy policy may contain an emissions target that caused the fuss amongst the ratbag right (and their Big Energy puppet masters).
    Turnbull saw the danger and removed all mention of a target.
    But he was too late. He was doomed.

    Angus Taylor is made of the right stuff. No emissions target for him.

  31. [Remember all those Herald scribes and ABC hacks falling over themselves to describe Andrew Hastie as a patriot and courageous etc when he used Parliament to dump on Chau Chak Wing as a commie spy and Australia]

    No. Remind me.

  32. I bet Morrison is relieved he won’t have to be pictured with the deeply unpopular and divisive Trump, and instead can cosy up to a fellow happy clapper in Pence.

  33. “No. Remind me.”

    You’ll have to google it yourself, or trawl through the Bludger archives. Hartcher (who else) led the pontificating way for Fairfax. All the other flunkies followed suit.

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