BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll trend measurement undergoes a convulsion as the land slides to Labor. Also: final by-election results show a dramatic change in One Nation preference flows compared with the election.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll and Essential Research polls conducted last weekend, both of which were devastating for the Coalition. A trend measure like BludgerTrack is not at its best when a landslip like this occurs, and the latest result is characterised by an anomalous surge in the “others”. This is to do with the Coalition and Labor primary vote trends being calculated with very different smoothing parameters, which means the Coalition vote has caught up with the new situation but Labor’s has not.

Nonetheless, the two-party vote has ended up much where the two latest polls are, causing Labor to gain three on the seat projection in Victoria and one apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. All we have had so far on leadership ratings is one preferred prime minister result from Newspoll, which will not be useable until a sufficient base of Morrison-versus-Shorten data becomes available. Full results as always from the link below.

In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission has finally published preference data from the Super Saturday by-elections. These show that the Liberal National Party’s resounding defeat in Longman was achieved despite the fact that 67.74% out of the 15.91% One Nation vote flowed to them as preferences, a dramatic change from their 43.51% in 2016. Labor also had weaker flows of Greens preferences, down from 80.70% to 76.52% in Longman and 86.12% to 73.31% in Braddon. Also in Braddon, Labor received 74.34% of preferences from independent Craig Garland and a bare majority from Shooters Fishers and Farmers.

The full distribution of preferences reveal that the Liberal Democrats edged out the Greens to take second place in Fremantle, obtaining a strong flow of preferences to reach 22.20% to the Greens’ 21.72% at the penultimate count (14,037 to 13,734). Labor’s Josh Wilson prevailed with a two-party margin over the Liberal Democrats of 23.33%. In Perth, the Greens just edged out an independent to reach the final count, at which Labor’s Patrick Gorman was elected with a 13.10% margin.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,317 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

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  1. Maude Lynne:

    The contrast between now and 2015 when Turnbull replaced Abbott couldn’t be starker. The leadership change back then drew hardly a peep from our local papers, certainly not the front page headlines getting stuck into the local member demanding to know his role in the mess. The Abbottobods really stuffed this one up. Good news for Labor though.

  2. The best the West paper can come up with today regarding Dutton’s actions is “unfair”, concentrating on the “unfairness” that the rich can afford to “import” au pairs. Actually, there is a point to be made – that with the appropriate Oz conditions being met – a lot of women from Indonesia/Malaysia and other places would probably be attracted to such work in Oz. However such is the attitude of perhaps 30% of the general public to “more immigrants” that paying for high-priced child care – subsidised by the taxpayer – will continue.

  3. Victoria, Rocket

    Yes exactly re Barnaby and the inland rail to nowhere. The question is – what is the angle for Scummo, McCormack, Taylor and the rest of the pro coal crew?

    With the Scummo bounce being more of a belly flop, there is not a lot of political sunshine ahead for the COALition to look forward to. The budget is gone. A forecast el nino will continue the drought into summer. That will only underline the threat of climate change and our lack of action. So you have to think marginal seat MPs will start looking for safer jobs soon. That will make defeat pretty much certain, even apart from the brand trashing in the spill.

  4. Andrew_Earlwood @ #32 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 8:33 am

    “This confirms what some of us knew about the show pony Rudd, and others refused to believe. Shame that the writer has not been able to produce the film on Julia Gillard.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/08/31/kevin-rudd-rupert-murdoch-hypocrisy/“

    Rudd! As bad as Abbott!

    So says pretentious wanker filmmaker insider. ‘oh, he’s so bad. He rewrote my campaign ad script. And he kept me waiting. The monster!’

    Handbags at 10 paces.

    He jumped the shark when he claimed a real fear that Rudd might win the 2013 … because like THAT possibility was worse than the alternative. Just think about that little opinion in light of everything that has happened since the 2013 election and get back to me.

    Andrew

    We MUST stop arguing

    I LOVE it

    Handbags at 10 paces.

    Sorry guytaur but it is still funny and apt even if not PC

  5. Other political ammo coming up for Labor – Cash and the AFP raid investigation (avoided but definitely not resolved), the banking RC findings, Visagate and Reefgate. There are better smelling dead fish.

    Have a good day all.

  7. Property Orders in the Joyce v Joyce matter will be of interest, noting the reference to land holdings and the proposed strategic importance of that land holding

    No doubt those representing Mrs Joyce will be taking note

    The ages of the daughters will see no Orders re Custody – his children will make their own decision as to residence

    Child Support continues until the youngest child turns 18 – or the end of that year if they remain in education

    All those years ago I paid no consideration to other than Custody proceedings but, this far down the track reflection is the impact of those Orders on Property Orders and Child Support assessments

    For Joyce MP I would suggest the fun is just starting particularly given the reference to any future value of land holdings

    To my mind the very real damage to Joyce MP will be personal – and particularly any fracture in his relationship with his children courtesy of HIS actions exclusively

  9. booleanbach @ #33 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 8:34 am

    DTT – yes, Pepe has always been a very good read; one of the (very) few writing about geopolitics from a truly global perspective

    For me that one was particularly good – but 95% of the time he is great so maybe just my mood this morning I thought it was super good.

    I had never heard of those three doctrines before and for the first time I began to grasp BRITAIN’s Russophobia. It is all just great power politics and Britain wanted to protect its naval sea based trading. Makes sense now – or it did until say 1955. Since Britain is now a minor player with no naval empire it makes less sense now.

  12. I would love Natalie Joyce to run as an Independent against Barnaby. I think she would have an excellent chance.

    Talk about karma!

    But seriously, I am hoping Barnaby is challenged by a credible, sensible, mature, conservative leaning, popular independent candidate next election. Whoever it is would have to have a decent shot at unseating him. Can Tony Windsor rise again?

  13. Rocket Rocket @ #59 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 9:18 am

    Observer

    I would love Natalie Joyce to run as an Independent against Barnaby. I think she would have an excellent chance.

    Rocket

    Has Natalie Joyce ever had any interest in politics. is she competent at these things?, Is she a right wing Nutter like hubby?

    Why would you want her rather than a genuine independent like Windsor?

  15. Tricot @ #54 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 6:05 am

    The best the West paper can come up with today regarding Dutton’s actions is “unfair”, concentrating on the “unfairness” that the rich can afford to “import” au pairs. Actually, there is a point to be made – that with the appropriate Oz conditions being met – a lot of women from Indonesia/Malaysia and other places would probably be attracted to such work in Oz. However such is the attitude of perhaps 30% of the general public to “more immigrants” that paying for high-priced child care – subsidised by the taxpayer – will continue.

    Be careful that way lies servitude and abuse if you want an example look at Indonesian maids in Malaysia.

    Often the employer takes possession of the workers passport and denies then freedom to move around in the community.

    They basically become slaves.

    So, What rights would these people have to change employer if they found conditions unsatisfactory.

    Who would oversee these workers to ensure they were treated properly?

    We have seen in the past women from Asia being brought in and forced into prostitution, experiencing conditions similar to what does occur with some maids in Malaysia.

    I’m not against the concept, but the potential for abuse is real and needs to be addressed before we go down that road. 🙂

  16. The au pair was working for zero wages, Nada, nothing, zero, zilch.

    Told border she was a volunteer no wages just getting food and lodgings and “allowed” to ride the horses on the weekend.

    At least RDN paid his au pair $8.50 an hour.

  17. Since when has competence been a pre-requisite for election to Parliament?

    Natalie’s self interest in seeking to destroy the perfidious Beetroot should be enough to satisfy any supporter of the left.

  18. Rocket:

    I don’t know Natalie Joyce, but she doesn’t strike me as the sort of person who would invite media attention into her life (which would happen if she ran against her ex-husband), most esp after the way he completely did her and their children over, humiliating her in front of the whole country.

  19. They won’t elect Windsor again. Anyone who takes a seat away from the Coalition helps keep them out of Government. People sometimes like to vote for someone who hasn’t spent their life in politics.

  20. Good Morning

    Craig Laundy not doing well on News 24 having to defend the bullying comment he made.

    DTT

    The handbags at 10 paces is fine. Unless there is something wrong with men having handbags. 🙂

  22. Great to see Labor on the front foot on immigration in the media.

    So much for the “storm in a teacup” narrative. Dutton has given Labor the ground to make a proper stand on immigration. Huge change of ground for future elections and not just the current one.

  23. Here’s a thought. If it took the Liberal vote a few weeks to climb to its highest point after the Turnbull succession, so it may take a few weeks for the Liberal vote to reach its lowest point after the Slow-Mo succession. If it goes below 40 the Libs will start packing knives to meetings.

  24. Natalie Joyce will be much better off for the rest of her life just because the rude self centered bumptious bogan is out her life. I’ve had the privilege of meeting Natalie.
    Luck appears and runs in the strangest ways. Good luck to her and the girls in their futures. Natalie becoming part of the political scene is not positive.
    The PB commentary is on the money this morning, the LNP in their present guise need to be buried.

  26. Those are pretty poor results for the Greens in WA. I’m not saying this is connected to the result but the Greens have quite a poor team of politicians at the moment (particularly with the exit of Bartlett and soon to be resurrection of Waters). I’m hoping this is the last election for Di Natale who has brought an amateurish student politics level of debate to the party. The problem then is a lack of alternative replacements. McKim perhaps.

  30. The small bag I have used for years to carry money, cards, keys, phone etc that I originally called a man bag is now called a purse, that’s what it is, so that’s what I call it.

  31. ltep:

    Di Natale really has been a poor leader for the Greens. The problem is they don’t really have much in the way of talent to replace him so it’s likely he’ll still be leader after the next election.

  32. Kevin Bonham @ #80 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 6:54 am

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/08/not-poll-best-state-premiers-of-last-40.html

    Not-A-Poll: Best State Premiers of the last 40 Years

    I have restarted voting for WA as candidate C. Barnett was accidentally omitted from the ballot paper.

    Also site readers voted Mark Latham the worst federal Opposition Leader of the last 45 years, beating Tony Abbott by just seven votes in the final.

    Completely understandable! 🙂

  33. DTT

    I did not think you were having a go. It just sounded to me that you were not sure about the proper respect and thats fine to show 🙂

    Of course the phrase is particularly apt for Drag Queens. They give anyone a run for their money in handbag throwing stakes. A good competition on the same is held during Mardi Gras 🙂

  35. While reading through BKs Dawn Patrol this morning.

    Using my little tablet; I turned off Cookies Enabled to enable viewing of SMH stories.
    Then
    Wishing to post a completely pointless item, I entered the details into the Comment Box and hit Submit.
    Lo – the item disappeared into the wild blue yonder never to return and the browser restarted showing that I was logged out.
    Well that might answer a question or two from a week or so ago.

    Re-enable cookies before posting. Or use CTL A, CTL C — if you remember.

  36. On the Greens

    We are too close to the election for a leadership spill IMO.

    After the election if Andrew Bartlett wins a lower house seat (He has got public recognition again after Senate stint) he could be a good choice.
    I also think Bandt is a good contender for the simple fact he is more than a one term winner in the HOR and as a party leader would get more impact.

    Senator Nick McKim has been good in the immigration portfolio. He would indeed be a good leader with his ministerial experience.

  37. ltep @ #75 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 9:51 am

    Those are pretty poor results for the Greens in WA. I’m not saying this is connected to the result but the Greens have quite a poor team of politicians at the moment (particularly with the exit of Bartlett and soon to be resurrection of Waters). I’m hoping this is the last election for Di Natale who has brought an amateurish student politics level of debate to the party. The problem then is a lack of alternative replacements. McKim perhaps.

    The exit of Bartlett is not really the case. He stands a reasonable chance of winning Brisbane, although I think Ryan is more winnable for the greens (not impressed with their candidate).

    Larissa is good value and I think a bit of a vote winner. I suspect that when she returns next week she will be made leader. De Natale just has NOT cut through. Here in Qld the Greens are on a bit of a roll, especially taking those middle class inner city seats – Ryan, Brisbane and Griffith are within their grasp.

    Not Griffith currently because Labor is riding high and Terri is a good candidate, but should Labor fall in the polls and select some unappealing hack then it becomes a chance.

    The Sunshine Coast is another target area. Now since other than Griffith these are LNP areas labor should be pleased. Helps them get into government and get their legislative agenda through.

    FWIW the green vote in Qld is surprisingly high in most seats. This probably comes as a surprise to those down South

    Longman is close to the LOWEST .

  39. guytaur @ #88 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 7:03 am

    On the Greens

    We are too close to the election for a leadership spill IMO.

    After the election if Andrew Bartlett wins a lower house seat (He has got public recognition again after Senate stint) he could be a good choice.
    I also think Bandt is a good contender for the simple fact he is more than a one term winner in the HOR and as a party leader would get more impact.

    Senator Nick McKim has been good in the immigration portfolio. He would indeed be a good leader with his ministerial experience.

    I doubt a leadership change for them would make any difference. 🙂

  40. Socrates @ #55 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 9:12 am

    Other political ammo coming up for Labor – Cash and the AFP raid investigation (avoided but definitely not resolved), the banking RC findings, Visagate and Reefgate. There are better smelling dead fish.

    Have a good day all.

    Another likely piece of ammo is Ruddock’s “Religious Freedom” Report which hasn’t been released yet.

  41. Barney

    I think it would. Senator Di Natale has just been very poor at getting media airtime.

    Like her or not thats not a problem for Larissa Waters. Same with McKim. Only SHY has been better in immigration at getting the message out to voters through the MSM.

    Social Media may have taken the gatekeeper role away from the MSM but it has not taken the whole game away.

  44. guytaur @ #93 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 7:10 am

    Barney

    I think it would. Senator Di Natale has just been very poor at getting media airtime.

    Like her or not thats not a problem for Larissa Waters. Same with McKim. Only SHY has been better in immigration at getting the message out to voters through the MSM.

    Social Media may have taken the gatekeeper role away from the MSM but it has not taken the whole game away.

    I was referring to the timing. 🙂

  45. The overwhelming sentiment from our CPG and political commentator friends this morning has been… grief.

    They lost their man, and now they’re crying about it.

    They were kept out of the Turnbull loop because, in the end, he didn’t care enough about them to tell them what was happening. Consequently, they couldn’t tell us.

    Now he’s gone, without any explanation, and no follow-up. Off to New York: about as far away from all of it as he can be, leaving them to squabble with each other among the crumbs.

    Their own caravan has passed them by.

  47. Sooner, faster, cheaper?

    Michelle Rowland‏Verified account @MRowlandMP · 18h18 hours ago

    Unbelievable. Another #NBN cost blowout. The Liberals are now $22 billion over budget and 4 years behind what they promised. #auspol

  49. “”Unbelievable. Another #NBN cost blowout. The Liberals are now $22 billion over budget and 4 years behind what they promised. #auspol””
    Turnbull LEGACY!!!!
    Pin that on him FOREVER. (with the help from Tony Abbott)

  50. Barney

    I hope the Greens don’t do a leadership change now. It would just give another excuse for the LNP to say its social media’s fault that major parties have had leadership changes and more chance to say same same during the election campaign.

    At the moment the LNP division is on full display. You are probably right about the timing as far as the Greens polling is concerned

    Edit: Note the Greens are called a major party when it suits the right

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