BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll trend measurement undergoes a convulsion as the land slides to Labor. Also: final by-election results show a dramatic change in One Nation preference flows compared with the election.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll and Essential Research polls conducted last weekend, both of which were devastating for the Coalition. A trend measure like BludgerTrack is not at its best when a landslip like this occurs, and the latest result is characterised by an anomalous surge in the “others”. This is to do with the Coalition and Labor primary vote trends being calculated with very different smoothing parameters, which means the Coalition vote has caught up with the new situation but Labor’s has not.

Nonetheless, the two-party vote has ended up much where the two latest polls are, causing Labor to gain three on the seat projection in Victoria and one apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. All we have had so far on leadership ratings is one preferred prime minister result from Newspoll, which will not be useable until a sufficient base of Morrison-versus-Shorten data becomes available. Full results as always from the link below.

In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission has finally published preference data from the Super Saturday by-elections. These show that the Liberal National Party’s resounding defeat in Longman was achieved despite the fact that 67.74% out of the 15.91% One Nation vote flowed to them as preferences, a dramatic change from their 43.51% in 2016. Labor also had weaker flows of Greens preferences, down from 80.70% to 76.52% in Longman and 86.12% to 73.31% in Braddon. Also in Braddon, Labor received 74.34% of preferences from independent Craig Garland and a bare majority from Shooters Fishers and Farmers.

The full distribution of preferences reveal that the Liberal Democrats edged out the Greens to take second place in Fremantle, obtaining a strong flow of preferences to reach 22.20% to the Greens’ 21.72% at the penultimate count (14,037 to 13,734). Labor’s Josh Wilson prevailed with a two-party margin over the Liberal Democrats of 23.33%. In Perth, the Greens just edged out an independent to reach the final count, at which Labor’s Patrick Gorman was elected with a 13.10% margin.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,317 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Labor”

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  1. dtt says….

    I am still in the ALP but I think most of you are a bit delusional about the quality of the labor left. It is closer to Malcolm Turnbull than it is to Jim Cairns or Lionel Murphy.

    The old sacred cows have been put out to pasture. Ho hum. The ideological divisions between left and right were largely contrived. The real divisions were over power, not principle. As soon as people started to focus on winning elections and sharing power, their propensity to find areas of disagreement simply faded away.

    I’m a member of the Left in WA, but very few of the factional differences are over matters of ideology or policy. In fact, there are really very few such differences at all. The system is arranged so that official and unofficial power, elective positions and financial support are widely distributed rather than concentrated, and so that new people can be easily recruited into the party. This is a good thing imo.

  2. Just checked out Ladbrokes’ odds.

    Next Party to Change Leaders

    LNP 1.4
    Labor 2.75

    Didn’t just change?

    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  3. Pre-dawn question :

    Mistyping something, I accidentally came across “Analytic Hierarchy Process” developed by Thomas L. Saaty, for analyzing complex decisions.

    Has anyone out there used this? If so is it actually a useful technique and does it have widespread applications?

  4. Re. Dare to tread @ 9.55 pm above.

    Hear! Hear! Comrade, you have said what I have wanted to say for a long time. The present day version of the Left are just another post-modern bunch of namby pambies. Keating and Hawke were simply Liberals in disguise, they gutted the union movement and transferred a big swath of the membership across to the likes of Hanson and Kennett.

  5. Diogenes says:
    Sunday, September 2, 2018 at 10:35 pm

    Richard Feynman was an undergraduate when the deans wife referred to him as Mr Feynman. He didn’t have his PhD yet.

    Only in the medical profession do non doctors get called doctors ( no research); with the error corrected when they do their masters (specialist with no research).

    Do you partake in the reverse snobbery of insisting you get called Mr ( assuming you have done your masters).

  6. Briefly @ 12:21am”

    “I’m a member of the Left in WA, but very few of the factional differences are over matters of ideology or policy. In fact, there are really very few such differences at all. ”

    Confirming DTT’s point. The Left wing of the ALP sold it’s soul long ago and now just nods quietly at injustices and inequalities that years ago would have shamed them. They vacated the left and the Greens were the natural party to pick up the voters the ALP abandoned.

    It’s great that Labor now presents as unified, but that unification came at a cost. It was in large part due to the party’s capitulation to the NSW Right.

  7. @AR

    Antonbruckner11 @ #995 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 3:31 pm

    Lizzie – Miss/Ms is a different matter. But O’Dwyer is apparently upset that she spent 8 years getting a doctorate (yawn) and she ain’t getting enough respect for that. That makes her a loser in my book.
    Yeah, pretty much exactly this. Her complaint comes across as “I devoted 8 year of my life towards earning a fancy title”.

    I have a slightly different take on this. I do have a Phd, and it was some years of hard work, but I do not use the title of Dr in everyday life.

    However, it is wonderful when I am asked whether it is Mrs, Miss or Ms to say it is Dr, actually. I am not suggesting all women get a PhD just to lose the categorisation that we experience when we ring just about anyone for anything.

    Question for the blokes – do you get asked is it Mr, Dr or Reverend?

    Also if K O’D has a PhD, then she is not being totally unreasonable to request to be addressed as Dr.

    Can some medicos comment this?

    No, I did nothing so.

  8. Also, 20 years ago whenI got on a plane, they looked at my boarding pass they would say “Doctor!”. I had to say, I am not the sort of Doctor you are looking for, sorry.

    Now, I’m resolutely addressed as Ms when boarding planes.

    However,my type are not totally useless on planes.

    Around 25 years ago, an announcement was made on a plane “Is there an electrical engineer on board?” Luckily I was not on board, because at this stage I would have decided we were all doomed.

    Luckily there was actually a physicist with a double degree in elec eng (or lots of said experience), and he made himself known to the crew. Apparently they were transporting a baby in a humidicrib, and it was not working as advised. Said person was able to keep humidicrib monitoring systems working, and baby survived.

  9. lizzie says:

    Sunday, September 2, 2018 at 3:19 pm
    Dr Siobhan O’Dwyer‏ @Siobhan_ODwyer · Aug 31

    Hey @Qantas, my name is Dr O’Dwyer. My ticket says Dr O’Dwyer. Do not look at my ticket, look at me, look back at my ticket, decide it’s a typo, and call me Miss O’Dwyer. I did not spend 8 years at university to be called Miss.

    I have only now got to the context of Kelly O’Dwyer’s spit about not being called Dr. As I have said before, when boarding a plane I am always called Ms, which does not bother me – like who cares unless you are going to get an upgrade?

    K O’D is a princess par excellence. Unlike me, she probably always travels business.In which case, who cares what you are called. She should try travelling steerage class (economy) for work like I always do, and then see how much she cares how she is addressed when entering the plane.

    My biggest concern is whether I look respectable to get a third glass of wine on. 24 hour flight!

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