BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll and Essential Research polls conducted last weekend, both of which were devastating for the Coalition. A trend measure like BludgerTrack is not at its best when a landslip like this occurs, and the latest result is characterised by an anomalous surge in the “others”. This is to do with the Coalition and Labor primary vote trends being calculated with very different smoothing parameters, which means the Coalition vote has caught up with the new situation but Labor’s has not.
Nonetheless, the two-party vote has ended up much where the two latest polls are, causing Labor to gain three on the seat projection in Victoria and one apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. All we have had so far on leadership ratings is one preferred prime minister result from Newspoll, which will not be useable until a sufficient base of Morrison-versus-Shorten data becomes available. Full results as always from the link below.
In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission has finally published preference data from the Super Saturday by-elections. These show that the Liberal National Party’s resounding defeat in Longman was achieved despite the fact that 67.74% out of the 15.91% One Nation vote flowed to them as preferences, a dramatic change from their 43.51% in 2016. Labor also had weaker flows of Greens preferences, down from 80.70% to 76.52% in Longman and 86.12% to 73.31% in Braddon. Also in Braddon, Labor received 74.34% of preferences from independent Craig Garland and a bare majority from Shooters Fishers and Farmers.
The full distribution of preferences reveal that the Liberal Democrats edged out the Greens to take second place in Fremantle, obtaining a strong flow of preferences to reach 22.20% to the Greens’ 21.72% at the penultimate count (14,037 to 13,734). Labor’s Josh Wilson prevailed with a two-party margin over the Liberal Democrats of 23.33%. In Perth, the Greens just edged out an independent to reach the final count, at which Labor’s Patrick Gorman was elected with a 13.10% margin.