BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll and Essential Research polls conducted last weekend, both of which were devastating for the Coalition. A trend measure like BludgerTrack is not at its best when a landslip like this occurs, and the latest result is characterised by an anomalous surge in the “others”. This is to do with the Coalition and Labor primary vote trends being calculated with very different smoothing parameters, which means the Coalition vote has caught up with the new situation but Labor’s has not.
Nonetheless, the two-party vote has ended up much where the two latest polls are, causing Labor to gain three on the seat projection in Victoria and one apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. All we have had so far on leadership ratings is one preferred prime minister result from Newspoll, which will not be useable until a sufficient base of Morrison-versus-Shorten data becomes available. Full results as always from the link below.
In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission has finally published preference data from the Super Saturday by-elections. These show that the Liberal National Party’s resounding defeat in Longman was achieved despite the fact that 67.74% out of the 15.91% One Nation vote flowed to them as preferences, a dramatic change from their 43.51% in 2016. Labor also had weaker flows of Greens preferences, down from 80.70% to 76.52% in Longman and 86.12% to 73.31% in Braddon. Also in Braddon, Labor received 74.34% of preferences from independent Craig Garland and a bare majority from Shooters Fishers and Farmers.
The full distribution of preferences reveal that the Liberal Democrats edged out the Greens to take second place in Fremantle, obtaining a strong flow of preferences to reach 22.20% to the Greens’ 21.72% at the penultimate count (14,037 to 13,734). Labor’s Josh Wilson prevailed with a two-party margin over the Liberal Democrats of 23.33%. In Perth, the Greens just edged out an independent to reach the final count, at which Labor’s Patrick Gorman was elected with a 13.10% margin.
Andrew_earlwood@9:02pm
Nah. It is because MSM said so.
After that story in The Saturday paper by Karen Middleton, I do not know what to believe. Is Dutton such a dolt? Is ScoMo such a Machiavellian puppet master?
It was all so frenzied for nothing.
Hi Grimace,
I will go with ALP 92 seats. Thanks.
Speaking of integrity, transparency and honesty, how are the costings for the Greens’ UBI coming along?
poroti says:
Sunday, September 2, 2018 at 6:51 pm
I’m sure such articles will smooth the transition from Lucien to Scrott.
Scott Morrison secretly hatched a plan to overthrow Malcolm Turnbull months ago, using a hapless Peter Dutton as an “unwitting stooge”, according to sensational new claims.
An investigation by The Saturday Paper has unmasked the new Prime Minister, also known as ScoMo, as the real villain in the assault on the Liberal Party leadership, detailing the shocking depths of his alleged betrayal.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12118104
—————thank you waiting for this — always believed or suspected — bit more evidence will help, correspondence etc … morrison is much to composed and happy to have been surprised by happenings, he seems prepared (as much as his bogan mind would prepare for anything)
Roger @ #1188 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 8:40 pm
I am still in the ALP but I think most of you are a bit delusional about the quality of the labor left. It is closer to Malcolm Turnbull than it is to Jim Cairns or Lionel Murphy.
The ALP CHOSE to dump it s left wing by a series of outrageous sell outs of everything the left stood for. This continues and the ALP left is little better than the right.
When I joined the ALP the Labor left cared passionately and vociferously about the Vietnam war and our role in it. i see no such passion or even a mild eyebrow flicker about our role in Syria or Libya or Iraq. Left on this issuue is a laugh
When I joined the ALP the Labor left fought passionately to retain the socialist Objective, including as I recall Lindsay Tanner last ALP member for Melbourn. I cannot see the current Labor left (or indeed the greens ) pushing for any thing as remotely left wing as that today even thought the circumstances and economic conditions that exsit now are fare more needful of such moves.
When i joined the ALP the big big left right issue was uranium mining, yet now few on the left raise or are about the issue. That has moved entirely to the Greens. Uranium mining and its consequent dangers is just as dangerous as it was in 1975 but our “left” are pussy cats on the issue.
Wen I joined the ALP the Left would have screamed blue murder at the sale of Qantas and the Commonwealth bank, but the left went to water and sold their souls for a few ministerial perks.
When I joined the ALP the left and the centre would have fought tooth an nail to perserve our rights to privacy and lack or arbitrary arrest and surveillance, but our lefty wonder kids went to water on those issues too.
When i joined the ALP the left was only a few years passed Bert Evatt. he would be turning in his grave at the complicit ALP LEFT acceptance of the vicious Nauru concentration camps.
So please stop saying that the ALP can do the job. I wish they could be the conscience and that the old ALP left could revive. The Greens are not the 100% answer and on many of those issues they too are moving rightwards. But for heavens sake stop assuming that the ALP has a conscience or a commitment to any thing other than mildly left of centre policies.
As promised earlier today – the “Abbottometer”.
I was wondering how a swing against the Coalition in the election would affect the relative numbers of the Turnbull/Morrison and the Dutton/Abbott forces.
I used Antony Green’s pendulum updated for the redistribution and looked at all the Coalition seats up to 10%. Only the Liberals vote in their party room, and those of the LNP who caucus with the Liberals (from the Parliament website). The starting point is 45 votes for Morrison and 40 for Dutton. How each member voted is from William’s table – his final vote got to 39 for Dutton – I have included Scott Buccholz as the 40th vote (personal opinion, and it made it easier to just worry about one ‘extra’ vote.)
Obviously I have not got Senators in this – their numbers won’t change much in a half-Senate election so the effect shouldn’t be as much as the House. I may look into it if I have time.
Sorry for the formatting transfer from the spreadsheet.
Sort of self-explanatory with “d” and “m” representing their vote at final 45-40 win for Morrison. Then the running total if that member loses seat (in a uniform swing). Then the numbers and Morrison lead. Then in brackets the leads at integer percentage swings.
State Electorate Margin Member d/m D-40 M-45 M lead
VIC Corangamite LIB 0.03 Sarah Henderson m 40 44 4
QLD Capricornia LNP 0.6 Nat – Michelle Landry 40 44 4
QLD Forde LNP 0.6 Bert van Manen d 39 44 5
NSW Gilmore LIB 0.7 Ann Sudmalis m 39 43 4
QLD Flynn LNP 1.0 Nat – Ken O’Dowd 39 43 4 (1% = 4)
NSW Robertson LIB 1.1 Lucy Wicks m 39 42 3
NSW Banks LIB 1.4 David Coleman m 39 41 2
QLD Petrie LNP 1.6 Luke Howarth d 38 41 3
QLD Dickson LNP 2.0 Peter Dutton d 37 41 4 (2% = 4)
WA Hasluck LIB 2.1 Ken Wyatt m 37 40 3
NSW Page NAT 2.3 Nat 37 40 3
SA Boothby LIB 2.8 Nicole Flint d 36 40 4 (3% = 4)
QLD Dawson LNP 3.3 Nat – George Christensen 36 40 4
QLD Bonner LNP 3.4 Ross Vasta d 35 40 5
VIC Chisholm LIB 3.4 Julia Banks m 35 39 4
VIC La Trobe LIB 3.5 Jason Wood d 34 39 5
WA Pearce LIB 3.6 Christian Porter d 33 39 6
WA Swan LIB 3.6 Steve Irons m 33 38 5
QLD Leichhardt LNP 4.0 Warren Entsch m 33 37 4 (4% = 4)
VIC Casey LIB 4.5 Tony Smith m 33 36 3
NSW Reid LIB 4.7 Craig Laundy m 33 35 2 (5% = 2)
SA Sturt LIB 5.8 Christopher Pyne m 33 34 1
QLD Brisbane LNP 6.0 Trevor Evans m 33 33 0 (6% = 0)
WA Stirling LIB 6.1 Michael Keenan d 32 33 1
VIC Deakin LIB 6.3 Michael Sukkar d 31 33 2
WA Canning LIB 6.8 Andrew Hastie d 30 33 3 (7% = 3)
QLD Bowman LNP 7.1 Andrew Laming d 29 33 4
VIC Flinders LIB 7.2 Greg Hunt d 28 33 5
VIC Aston LIB 7.6 Alan Tudge d 27 33 6
VIC Monash LIB 7.6 27 33 6
VIC Menzies LIB 7.9 Kevin Andrews d 26 33 7 (8% = 7)
QLD Wide Bay LNP 8.3 Nat – Llew O’Brien 26 33 7
QLD Hinkler LNP 8.4 Nat – Keith Pitt 26 33 7
SA Grey LIB 8.5 Rowan Ramsey m 26 32 6
QLD Ryan LNP 8.8 Jane Prentice m 26 31 5 (9% = 5)
QLD Fisher LNP 9.2 Andrew Wallace d 25 31 6
NSW Hughes LIB 9.3 Craig Kelly d 24 31 7
VIC Wannon LIB 9.3 Dan Tehan m 24 30 6
QLD Wright LNP 9.6 Scott Buchholz d 23 29 6
NSW Bennelong LIB 9.7 John Alexander m 23 28 5 (10% = 5)
VIC Higgins LIB 10.2 Kelly O’Dwyer m 23 27 4
There are two interesting parts in the data – from 3.6 to 6% swing the M forces’ lead drops from +6 to Zero. But then it goes back up to +7 as the swing goes from 6 to 7.6%, and then is fairly steady. I didn’t think there was much point going past 10%.
What does it mean? I would say that it means a “moderate loss” keeps the M forces ahead, but a bad loss with a swing of 5-6% makes the D forces stronger.
So given the 2016 result of TPP (Coalition 50.36 v ALP 49.64) I would say in the event of a really big result for Labor, say 54-46, Dutton will lose his seat and Tony Abbott will ride in to claim the leadership (maybe after a suitable ‘cooling off’ period post-election)
Antonbruckner11 @ #1217 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 9:02 pm
In that case, bow down to peasant,
Signed the Supreme Being, God.
Confessions @ #1151 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 7:45 pm
Sarah Ferguson – apparently he’s up next on 4 Corners.
Bushfire Bill @ #1199 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 8:47 pm
It’s the vibe.
There is good and evil in the world.
Labor’s history of neoliberal economic policy is evil. The amount of permanently lost output and income caused by the labour wastage inflicted by those policies is immense. The social costs – addiction, mental illness, family breakdown, anti-social behaviour, crime, poverty, exclusion – are staggering.
Labor’s treatment of asylum-seekers is evil.
I have no patience for the moral relativism and rank cowardice of people who defend evil.
I have many pairs of trousers. So, it would be appropriate for you all to call me Dakter!
Sohar @ #1207 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 8:52 pm
Yes, just catching up. That’s exactly what I meant.
DaretoTread @ #1253 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 9:55 pm
In fairness to Turnbull, if he had been allowed (or possessed the courage) to enact the sort of policies he purported to believe in, he probably would have been quite popular and a challenging opponent for Labor.
We’re all fortunate in a way that the RWNJ’s were able to hold him hostage on pretty much everything, and that Turnbull’s only real policy was “Malcolm Turnbull must be PM, all other policy positions vacant”.
Dr Evil did not spend 6 years at medical school to be called Mr Evil, thank you very much
https://youtu.be/J8rBDOMLtSU
Great stuff Rocket Rocket.
Very interesting.
So at the BT swing of 5.1% we’re at 21 seats down and a 2 vote lead for Scummo.
What are the voting numbers for the Senate?
Cheers! 🙂
Oakeshott Country @ #1264 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 7:13 pm
But he was an egomaniac amongst other things. 🙂
Richard Feynman was an undergraduate when the deans wife referred to him as Mr Feynman. He didn’t have his PhD yet.
“Labor’s history of neoliberalism is evil,” he said, supporting a party calling for a 20 per cent flat tax on sugary drinks.
Barney
Yes obviously lots of “quantum” uncertainty – I do feel though that a bad loss will embolden the Abbott forces, and egged on by the Murdoch media, they will push the case that ‘this is what happens when you ignore the Base’. I believe the number one reason Abbott is staying in Parliament is so that he can be Liberal leader again, and one day regain the Prime Ministership.
I think if the Coalition lose, Morrison’s time as Opposition leader will bear an inverse relationship to the size of the loss. An absolute wipeout may see him resign or lose the leadership at the first post-election party room meeting (where I think under Liberal Party rules the leadership positions are automatically declared vacant at the start of the meeting).
Interesting analysis Rocket
So a heavy loss will strengthen the RWNJs (but remove Dutton) – which they would use to purge the party of anyone the the left of Genghis Khan. Hopefully this renders them unelectable for a long time.
On you analysis, if the loss is not as heavy and some more moderates survive and are the majority, then the RWNJs will keep white-anting and leader who is not ‘theirs’ – and the open gangrenous wound will continue to ooze.
I suspect campaigns focused on dutton-abbott loons will result in bigger swings in their seats and take out some in ‘safe’ seats.
Regardless of what happens It is really hard to see them reunifying – the loons want the party and will keep going until they own in outright and turn it into/keep it an unelectable rabble.
The Oz continues to urge a move further to the right – despite about 70% of the population not wanting to go there. Years in the wilderness looms.
it is a joy to watch.
I read Feynman’s autobiography and I remember seeing some documentary based on it as well. He was an interesting character. He was certainly a great self-promoter, but Science actually does need people who attract public attention (Stephen Hawking, Carl Sagan).
sf – yes hadn’t thought of the “participant effect” – Sukkar for instance could possibly have a bigger swing against him than might otherwise have been the case. I think the bottom line is the Abbott forces will never be satisfied until they have won.
To be fair Nicholas has strong and considered political opinions which would probably not be represented by the platform of any current Australian political party
Good night all. Just checked the cricket – India have blown two massive chances in this 4th Test (trailing series 1-2) : They had England 6/86 in the first innings, and 5/122 in the second, but lost the advantage both times and are now 3/53 chasing 246. I can see another close loss coming up unless Kohli gets at least half of the runs.
Nicholas @ #1260 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 7:05 pm
Um, Nick!
The Coalition is the Government at the moment and have been since 2013.
And also the world is not a binary place there is a lot of shit in between.
God and evil? Have you found doG? 🙂
Thanks for that Rocket, but I’m still going with PvO’s thoughts in that it is Abbott who is ultimately angling for the leadership post election loss, not Dutton.
subjective, but interesting feedback
I visited my elderly parents for fathers day. Mum would have voted lib most of her life, except during the hawke era and has become more right wing as she has got older. Dad was labor, then DLP, anti-Gough, was a Hawke voter, but end up being anti-keating. Mum loved Howard, dad didn’t like him much – I hate to think what independents he would have voted for after Beasley, but he would have voted for Beasley; neither could stand rudd, gillard, abbott or turnbull.
comments today – anger and frustration at the LNP ‘”hopeless”, “just don’t deserve to be in power” . they wish shorten was better because “this lot have to go” and they hope shorten turns out to “be better than they last few”. I reckon the baseball bats and bazookas are out.
shiftaling @ #1273 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 10:47 pm
Don’t we all though? 😉
rocket
I reckon Abbott’s definition of victory is just to own the party and the have purged all moderates- even if this results in future LNPs parliamentary numbers and general vote resemble those of the DLP. He will rename it the angry old white men shouting at clouds party (AOWMSAC)
I wish him all the best on his endeavours.
Has there been any reference in the media about “terrorism” being a factor behind the accumulation of the haul of weapons recovered by the police in NSW, and the alleged intention of the collector to do harm to Turnbull and others?
Rocket Rocket @ #1253 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 9:55 pm
Good stuff Rocket but swings are never uniform state by state
If I had to make predictions (early days so agree chickens should not be counted, but I would say the following seats are likely to fall
Moderate Libs
Henderson, Wicks, Sudmalis, Colemn, Banks (5)
RWNJ
Van Manen, Howrth, Vasta, Wood, Porter Hastie (5)
Nationals
Landry, O’Dowd< the guy in Page) (3)
So that is 13
Ones that are possible but I think will hang on – partly because the swing is less in SA and because they came well out of the stoush or because high profile
Moderates
Wyatt, Entsch, Laundy, Pyne
RWNJ
Dutton , Flint
Ones that are possible if unlikely falls if the swing is really on.
Evan, Ryan, O'Dwyer (all moderates)
Much as I would like it a 10% swing to rid us of Sukkar seems unlikely in Victoria
I am thinking that there will be:
1. A very big swing in WA but that Wyatt will cling on
2. Not much of a swing in SA
3. A decent swing in Victoria but since it is already off a high base it will not be super huge
4. A very goo swing in NSW but there are not a lot of marginals
5. A big swing in Qld, but Dutton will cling on – Hope not – Ally France is great.
1. The Greens don’t represent my priorities. I regard the Greens as better than Labor, I regard Labor as better than the LNP, and I vote accordingly.
2. Using taxation to discourage undesirable behaviour or encourage desired behaviour is not a neoliberal policy, particularly if taxing junk food more heavily were combined with reverse taxing (i.e. subsidising) plant-based healthy foods.
I think the moral hazard argument against free health care (for the user) is dubious. There is little to no evidence of a significant number of hypochondriacs in the Australian population. People who seek health care generally need it or at least would benefit from a primary health care check-up. Therefore we don’t need to “price signal” people out of seeking health care that they suspect they may need. On the contrary. We ought to be encouraging people to seek expert assessment and advice as early as possible. This is the key to preventing health problems from escalating to debilitating levels that are resource-intensive to treat.
My understanding is that a good practice health care system invests most heavily in primary and community-based heath care. These investments reduce the need for the more resource-intensive interventions provided at the secondary and tertiary levels of a health care system.
I think an important element of community-based health care comprises health promotion and public health initiatives. I suspect that if we regulated junk food and alcohol in the same way that we regulate tobacco, our overall health care burden would fall substantially. Imagine public policy that prevented all alcohol and junk food manufacturers and suppliers from engaging in any form of advertising, marketing, branding, or sponsorship of public events. Imagine the result of imposing plain packaging laws on the alcohol and junk food industries. Producing and consuming the products would still be legal, but actively promoting and glamorising the products would not. It is reasonable to assume that aggregate consumption of alcohol and junk food would drop markedly under this kind of regulation. As a consequence, the so-called life-style diseases of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases would become far less common.
If the federal government reverse taxed (i.e. subsidized) the prices of plant-based foods (including protein-rich legumes and legume-derived products such as tofu), and imposed higher consumption taxes on meat and junk foods, the price signal would promote healthier diets.
We also need urban planning laws, housing policy, employment policy, and tax policy that make people’s built-up environments favorable to physical activity. At present our policies in these areas privilege the use of motorised transport and inflict long commuting times on many workers. Existing public policy forces many people to use passive forms of transport to get to work. If we made our cities and our towns more friendly to pedestrians and cyclists, the health care burden would fall. If we reduced the amount of time that people spent on commuting, the health care burden would fall. Making public transport free to all users, providing free wifi on all public transport, expanding the frequency and coverage of public transport services, and implementing congestion taxes for people who drive private cars on high demand roads during peak times would all increase the likelihood of people having enough time to socialize, exercise, and attend to their mental health. People would also benefit from a federally funded, locally administered Job Guarantee scheme that brought socially valuable, individually satisfying minimum wage jobs to where the people are. Active use of discretionary fiscal policy would also help to create socially useful and individually satisfying public sector employment close to where people live. The expenditure multiplier effects of such policies would also promote private sector job creation.
@DareToTread 11:10PM:
I note the omission of Keenan (Stirling, 6.8%) from your list. With the Libs’ 2PP win in WA circa 2016 (54.6%) looking to be corrected, even a modest ALP wave in WA may swamp Mr. Keenan.
I certainly hope so…
The determining feature of the coming election will be voter flight away from the Liberal Party. They will lose primary votes in every direction….to ON, to the Gs and to Labor. In some instances, some of those lost votes will return as prefs, but many of these lost votes will come to rest with the opponents of the Liberals. In Melbourne, this will likely mean that Bandt’s PV will go up as disaffected Liberals choose a known non-Liberal sitting member. The same pattern will be repeated in Labor-held seats, where sitting members will benefit from widespread rejection of the Liberals. In Melbourne, it’s also very likely that the Lib – if there is one – will run behind Labor, and the run-off – if there is one – will be between Labor and Green.
In general, the loss of Lib PV will exceed the gain in Labor’s PV but nevertheless Labor will pick up both an increase in PVs and correspondingly sufficiently strong pref flows to win Lib-held marginals right around the country.
At the moment the swing appears to be around 5%. By the time of the election, it could be much more than this, but it is unlikely to be much less. The Liberals do not have enough time to re-invent themselves as a credible, functioning, unified, coherent government that’s capable of dealing with the big issues of the time. The more weeks that pass, the more obvious it will be that they are none of these things and the more fixed will the anti-Liberal shift become. This in itself will likely drive further ructions in the Liberal party and accentuate the loss in Liberal PV.
As well, as Psephos points out, the Liberals have yet to endorse candidates for a large number of Labor-held seats. This means they actually cannot campaign in these seats whereas Labor have been campaigning for months in the Lib-held marginals.
In addition to this, the Liberals are broke. They have no funds with which to campaign and will find the donor taps have been turned off, while Labor is cashed up and will benefit from allied campaigns to be mounted by the unions and Get-up. At the moment, It looks like Labor can expect swings of between 3% at the bottom and maybe 8% at the top, depending on the starting points. The exception is SA, where no swing is evident yet. With their on-ground teams, their financial strength and the self-sabotage of the Liberals, this heralds a landslide for Labor.
On the strength of all this, Labor will lose no seats to the LNP, will not collect Melbourne but will lose no seats to the Gs. Labor start from 71 (after the redistributions) and will win around 24 enemy seats currently on margins of up to 6.8%. The independents will likely be re-elected, except for Katter who will likely lose his seat to either Labor or the LNP. If Labor and Liberal campaign against Katter in Kennedy and pref each other ahead of the now overtly racist Crank party – why won’t they – Labor can win it with Liberal prefs.
In Victoria there 4 Lib-held seats on margins of 7-8%. If the Liberal PV collapses – as occurred in Longman and WA – there will be no strong 3rd voice to attract these lost primaries. They will likely flow across quite strongly to Labor. Labor have reason to think they can win these, but it’s more likely they turn into Lib-retains on very low margins.
So my prediction is:
Labor 94
Independent 3
Green 1
LNP 53
If things go completely to pieces for the Liberals, they may lose another 10 seats, mainly in NSW and QLD. The chances of this have to be thought very remote even in the current extraordinary context. We’re all this to happen, the implied 2PP split would be 58/42. This would replicate the result in 1943. Things are bad for the Liberals…. but not that bad….not yet.
What a massive narcissist
Edit: not you briefly
Confessions@11:00pm
That is the reason why JBish wants to stay in politics ie to prevent Abbott from becoming the leader. However, Abbott along with Dutton became suicide bombers to scorch the earth so that JBish will not have even that chance.
Nicholas,
Just a tip: If you want to enact change, you need to get stakeholders onside, build a consensus case, present it to power, and then win argument.
To do that, you really need to adopt two strategies – be pragmatic, and don’t bite off more than you can chew.
Pretty much any other approach is as potent as posting a laundry list on someone else’s blog.
DtT – I think Sukkar is toast. I think anybody in Victoria associated with abbott-dutton will struggle in Victoria. I’m even hopeful that Hunt could go.
why do you think Dutton will survive? I think the evidence from this week (the leaking re: the au pairs affair) is that if the LNP know they are going to lose there will be strategic leaking to try to ‘get rid’ of internal foes. It will go both ways and be very ugly.
ScuMos ‘Í’m just an ordinary bloke’ facade is already beginning to wobble. His terseness is beginning to show at pressers, and the nasty rat-trap yappy mouth is beginning to show. The CPG loved turnbull – but I reckon ScuMo will move into trump territory of open warfare with many media outlets.
That said, I expect the next lot of polls will not be as dire as last weeks, and this will be hailed in the msm as a ‘comeback’.
Well spoken Robert.
I’m not a Greens voter, I’m a Labor member and to Ben honest, I find it unfathomable the mentality seen on here that is highly antagonistic against the Greens.
It’s particularly strong here but no means limited to online. I know people (who I get along with) in my branch who are ideologically similar to a lot of the Greens policies yet seem to hate them with an obsession not reserved for the actual conservatives.
One hypothesis is it’s just another form of tribalism normally seen supporting a sports team. Which is not how I view politics.
Darn typos….
Labor win 22 Libs seat…1 from Katter…nil change with respect to the Gs….tally will be 94…
SandgroperWA @ #1289 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 8:32 pm
The main criticism of the Greens is that they are ineffectual and in general lack pragmatism. 🙂
Matt @ #1280 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 11:22 pm
My knowledge of WA is sketchy to say the least.
So I too hope you are right. WA is in for a big swing.it is time!!!
On the WA side of things, cant see Wyatt hanging on, his seat is most likely to turn to Labor with Swan. Pearce should fall too, to kick Porter’s smug mug back to irrelevance and putting a great candidate in Travers into parliament. Stirling and Canning could fall too if the swing is still on, but the longer the election is delayed the more opportunity there is for people to be angry at state government which will blunt momentum imo.
They’re the only seats here in play. Maybe O’Connor could flip to Nationals, there should be 5 parties getting near 10%+ of the vote which could shake things up.
I would like to think Nicole Flint is toast in Boothby for supporting the Potato, but she won last time despite her strong pro gun hunting record, so f@#k knows.
I’ll just keep voting against her!! 🙂
N dresses in G, but is really an outrider for the Tories. He hates Labor and campaigns against the representative organ of working people all the time. He also campaigns against Democrats in the US and in support of Putinist positions in Europe. This makes him a willing agent of racism and reaction. He preaches – never short of sanctimony – but does nothing whatsoever to promote the political interests of working people.
Sandgroper WA….as a matter of strategy, the G’s campaign against Labor without let. As a matter of tactics they troll Labor at every opportunity.
sustainable future @ #1285 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 11:30 pm
I certainly hope Sukkar goes – it is just that to get him takes big swing and i guess most of the ordinary voters will not know of his role – although I guess the ALP will make sure they DO.
I basically live on the door step of Duttonland and I am not feeling the hate. There is a big PHON factor too. Like so many Qld seats it is a mixed bag. There are middle suburban areas, outright worker areas, a lot of tradies, rural residential and rural red neck, at least one booth where the Greens outpoll even inner city Melbourne (small). There are also some industrial areas and some very rich enclaves.
Roger says:
Sunday, September 2, 2018 at 11:23 pm
What a massive narcissist
Edit: not you briefly
I’m a humble bludger, Roger 🙂
It’s a flat tax that’s disproportionally paid by the poor and low-income families. By that definition, the GST (which taxes junk food and exempts fresh food) isn’t a neoliberal policy.
SandgroperWA @ #1290 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 11:41 pm
Sandgroper
I have just had this feeling about Wyatt for a long time. I suspect that LABOR voters will be reluctant to vote against an indigenous guy (and his many indigenous relatives). He is also a moderate and generally has not stuffed up.
But yes on the face of it it should fall. However along with Warren Entsch I see him hanging on – For Brendan??????