Senate selections

Labor sorts out its Senate ticket for Queensland, while both parties in Tasmania appear loath to learn from the preselection lessons of 2016.

We seem to be going into an ill-timed poll drought, so to keep things ticking over, here’s a post focusing on Senate preselection news. Please note there’s a post below this one on this Saturday’s Wagga Wagga by-election, which is developing into a fairly interesting contest.

• Queensland Labor’s state conference determined its Senate preselection on the weekend, having been hurried along by a national executive concerned the Liberal leadership crisis might bring on an early election. In doing so it bypassed a vote that was granted to the party membership under rule changes in 2013. The top position has gone to Nita Green, a former staffer to Senator Murray Watt and the favoured candidate of the CFMMEU and United Voice. The position is reserved to the Left, and is being vacated with the retirement of Claire Moore.

Green’s ascendancy has been contentious because party rules reserve the position for a regional representative and she lives in Brisbane, though she says she will move if elected. Supporters of rival Left candidate Tania Major, a Cairns-based indigenous youth advocate and protege of Cape York leader Noel Pearson, have further complained of being ambushed by a process for the factional ballot in which a three-day nominations period was followed immediately by the start of voting.

The second place on the ticket, which is reserved to the dominant Labor Forum sub-faction of the Right, has been retained by incumbent Chris Ketter. The cancellation of the party membership vote saw off any threat from rival nominee Pat O’Neill, former army major and candidate for Brisbane in 2016, although he was reportedly unlikely to win in any case. Number three goes to Frank Gilbert, a former Mackay councillor and candidate for Dawson in 2016, and a member of the Old Guard sub-faction of the Right.

Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Tasmanian Labor’s union establishment has again lined up against Lisa Singh for Senate preselection, undeterred by the success of a below-the-line voting campaign in overturning her demotion at the 2016 election. Singh will presumably dominate the party member component of the vote, but is reportedly unlikely to do any better than the loseable third position. This is because the dominant Left wants places for an incumbent, Carol Brown, and John Short, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union official for whom Singh was relegated in 2016, while the Right is defending incumbent Catryna Bilyk.

• Tasmania’s Liberals are also conducting their Senate preselection vote on Saturday, and there are suggestions they too may repeat unhappy history from 2016. Richard Colbeck is again under pressure from conservative forces associated with Senator Eric Abetz, despite having almost matched Lisa Singh’s feat after being dumped to number five in 2016. He found his way back in the recount that followed Stephen Parry’s disqualification in November, and was promoted last week to the outer ministry, making him the only Tasmanian at that level of seniority. Brett Worthington at the ABC reports conservatives want the top position to go to Brett Whiteley, veteran of three winning and three losing campaigns at both federal and state level in Braddon, or alternatively to a woman. Further demotion beyond that would be particularly remarkable for Colbeck, as he is the only one of the four Tasmanian Liberal Senators facing re-election, the others having scored six-year terms. The other nominees for the preselection were detailed in an earlier instalment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,088 comments on “Senate selections”

  1. Assuming the Newspoll has now happened, here is how everyone did. Take a bow if you got it right.

    Average: ALP 55.5 to 44.5 LNP
    Median: ALP 55 to 45 LNP
    Respondents: 44
    ———-
    57 / 43 A different Michael
    60 / 40 adrian
    54 / 46 a r
    58 / 42 Akubra 
    58 / 42 Al Pal
    57 / 43 Andrew_Earlwood
    62 / 38 antonbruckner11
    57 / 43 Asha Leu
    55 / 45 Aunt Mavis
    66.6 / 33.4 Barney in Go Dau
    55 / 45 BK
    1 / 99 Boerwar
    58 / 42 briefly
    53 / 47 C@tmomma
    54 / 46 Confessions
    99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
    60 / 40 Dave
    56 / 44 Davidwh
    57 / 43 d-money
    57 / 43 Fulvio Sammut
    60 / 40 Gecko
    53 / 47 guytaur
    56 / 44 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 Ides of March.not logged in
    53 / 47 imacca
    53 / 47 jenauthor
    53 / 47 Kevjohnno
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    52 / 48 ltep
    55 / 45 LU not logged in
    54 / 46 Lynchpin
    56 / 44 Matt31
    59 / 41 nath
    55 / 45 poroti
    58 / 42 ratsak
    56 / 44 Rocket Rocket
    50 / 50 Simon² Katich®
    54 / 46 Simon² Katich®
    55 / 45 steve davis
    55 / 45 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    52 / 48 solwolf
    54 / 46 Steve777
    54.5 / 45.5 The Silver Bodgie

  2. #newspoll Chris Kenny on SkyNews shares a “hint” on Newspoll.
    No “Bounce” but PPM “better”.
    So if true news ltd headlines will be on PPM i guess

  3. Great travel TV, awesome. You either get her or you don’t, and I do.

    Yes. I appreciated the fact that she was in awe but didn’t bung on side. If you get my drift?

  4. @DTT

    Please do not be facetious D&M. I am not with you and it is just silly and inappropriate.

    What I say makes common sense and indeed it is part of the thoroughly environmentally sound local foods movement. Trade is always good but every society locality etc should have enough brains to ensure it can cope with unexpected disruptions in food and water.

    These are ESSENTIAL .

    Given the UKs chicken little approach to Russia, a hot war is becoming increasingly likely. If such a war were to break out then assuming it did not go nuclear then imported food would not make it into the UK. This should be obvious.

    I do not find it funny or acceptable that you belittle me on such an important matter. I have NEVER ONCE belittled you so try to be less prejudiced.

    Apologies DTT. No offence was meant, and I was being somewhat facetious. I usually try very hard not to belittle anyone, and apologies that in this case I failed, and agree this is my fault not yours.

    As you say, you are not in my side, and I do not think we could ever reach agreement about European or world politics in either the 20th or 21st centuries. Just different world views, very sincerely held by both of us.

  5. Confessions says:
    Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 8:54 pm
    Boerwar:
    And there has been speculation Banks will use parliamentary privilege to name and shame Liberal bullies as well.
    The week promises to be quite something.

    It sure does, don’t forget we also have Labor bully Emma Husar returning this week as well.

  6. Interesting debate on Ben Raue’s Twitter feed about how to refer to swing %, this from Antony Green

    So a seat that goes from 55:45 to 45:55 which we describe as a 10% swing becomes an 18.2% swing against and a 22.2% towards. No. It is 10% because a net 10% of the electorate changed.

  7. If there is no bounce that will mean 56 – 44 (really 57 – 43). That’s a catastrophe. Surely the Airport Giveway can’t spin that.

  8. C@tmomma @ #4053 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 9:18 pm

    Great travel TV, awesome. You either get her or you don’t, and I do.

    Yes. I appreciated the fact that she was in awe but didn’t bung on side. If you get my drift?

    I get it. And I got it, on hold on Iview, episode 2, while I say it’s good night from me, and thanks C@t. I’m taking Ms Lumley to bed.

  9. What are our Balance of Trade figures – being the difference between what we import and export?

    And what is the contribution of agriculture – both as an import and an export figure respectively?

    Simply, we export Export quality product

    Including under so called Free Trade Agreements

    One of the beefs I have is that Export quality product is generally unavailable in Australia and instead we have access to lesser quality, imported product (look at the shelves of our Supermarkets) AND locally produced product which is not at Export quality

    The problem is that we pay the premium export price for what is on supply to us

    The upside is that produce is available “out of season”, but of inferior quality and at premium price

    So when there is reference to what we import, there are always two sides to the story

    We live in a Global economy

    We import – including ideas and technology

    And, similarly, we export

    Including under so called “Free Trade Agreements”, because nothing is free

    We also import Capital, accessed from Global Capital Markets

    Then there is sustainable production such as from desalination plants and renewable energy resources – and driverless battery operated vehicles because fossil fuel, apart from anything else, is a finite resource which has to be diminishing

    When statements are made including “ridiculous levels of immigration “ and “mass immigration” and references to imports with no reference to exports, the absence of supporting data makes the presentation untenable and naive

  10. It won’t tighten much for a while and then only from a massacre to a belting. The Libs are dead in the water for the foreseeable future.

    It will be a long and hard road back unless Labor shoots themselves in the foot again.

  11. Douglas and Milko @ #4058 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 9:18 pm

    @DTT

    Please do not be facetious D&M. I am not with you and it is just silly and inappropriate.

    What I say makes common sense and indeed it is part of the thoroughly environmentally sound local foods movement. Trade is always good but every society locality etc should have enough brains to ensure it can cope with unexpected disruptions in food and water.

    These are ESSENTIAL .

    Given the UKs chicken little approach to Russia, a hot war is becoming increasingly likely. If such a war were to break out then assuming it did not go nuclear then imported food would not make it into the UK. This should be obvious.

    I do not find it funny or acceptable that you belittle me on such an important matter. I have NEVER ONCE belittled you so try to be less prejudiced.

    Apologies DTT. No offence was meant, and I was being somewhat facetious. I usually try very hard not to belittle anyone, and apologies that in this case I failed, and agree this is my fault not yours.

    As you say, you are not in my side, and I do not think we could ever reach agreement about European or world politics in either the 20th or 21st centuries. Just different world views, very sincerely held by both of us.

    Apology accepted D&M

    I am not sure what side you think I am on. I suspect that we would agree on 95% of matters

    I have a slightly different world view on really only one or two matters but people blow it up out of all proportion.

    My main thing is that I hate hypocrisy and therefore can get irritated with many who are unable or unwilling to see when they are being hypocritical.

  12. Scott Morrison has moved ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred Prime Minister and is now a more popular leader than Malcolm Turnbull but the Coalition remains on track for an election wipe-out, notching its 40th straight losing Newspoll.

    An exclusive Newspoll, conducted for The Australian between September 6-9, has the Coalition trailing Labor 44-56 on two-party preferred vote, with the Opposition lifting its primary vote a further point to 42 per cent on the back of continuing turmoil surrounding the government.

    Labor’s primary vote marks the strongest support for the party since the days following Kevin Rudd’s dismissal in July 2010 and almost at the level of popular support that led to Labor’s 2007 landslide victory against John Howard.

    The Coalition primary vote increased one point from 33 to 34 per cent.

    The poll, which is based on 1653 interviews with voters across the nation, saw Mr Morrison move ahead of Bill Shorten as Better Prime Minister, at 42 to 36 per cent.

    Mr Morrison, who was elected by the Liberal party room as leader on August 24, has also received a “honeymoon” boost to his performance ratings, with 41 per cent of voters satisfied and 39 per cent dissatisfied. Rating Mr Shorten’s performance, 37 per cent of voters said they were satisfied, with 51 per cent dissatisfied.

  13. BW@8:36p.
    Nick Cater put it in open because like all LNP males, politicians or otherwise, thougjt that they are alpha males and every body else should listen to them. People like Abbott have honed those skills from University days. How many of you remember that revelation when he was LOTO where a woman from his University days came forward and revealed that after he lost university student union president election to her he threatened her during night time.

  14. 39th Newspoll LNP loss?

    GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    3m3 minutes ago

    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 44 (0) ALP 56 (0) #auspol
    10 replies 71 retweets 73 likes

    GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    1m1 minute ago

    #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 41 (+5 compared to Turnbull) Disapprove 39 (-16) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    52s53 seconds ago

    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 37 (+5) Disapprove 51 (-5) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    26s27 seconds ago

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Morrison 42 (+9) Shorten 36 (-3) #auspol
    0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes

    Looks like stupid would rather have another idiot “I am A Prime Minister who needs work on self improving my own image”.

    Rather than doing his job as PM.

  15. “sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 9:28 pm
    SkyFoxNews presenters still blaming Turnbull for shocking government polling”

    Will Murdoch send out his paparazzi types to confront Turnbull in NY and demand that he apologise for the Newspoll numbers?

  16. a r @ #4001 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 8:23 pm

    So then let’s fix that problem with birth control. No need to touch immigration rates or bandy “sustainability” about as a reason to be an anti-immigrant jerk-ass.

    Our natural birth rate is already below the level needed to sustain our population. So we need some migration to sustain our present population.

    Now, which of us is anti-immigration, and which of us is simply misinformed?

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