We seem to be going into an ill-timed poll drought, so to keep things ticking over, here’s a post focusing on Senate preselection news. Please note there’s a post below this one on this Saturday’s Wagga Wagga by-election, which is developing into a fairly interesting contest.
• Queensland Labor’s state conference determined its Senate preselection on the weekend, having been hurried along by a national executive concerned the Liberal leadership crisis might bring on an early election. In doing so it bypassed a vote that was granted to the party membership under rule changes in 2013. The top position has gone to Nita Green, a former staffer to Senator Murray Watt and the favoured candidate of the CFMMEU and United Voice. The position is reserved to the Left, and is being vacated with the retirement of Claire Moore.
Green’s ascendancy has been contentious because party rules reserve the position for a regional representative and she lives in Brisbane, though she says she will move if elected. Supporters of rival Left candidate Tania Major, a Cairns-based indigenous youth advocate and protege of Cape York leader Noel Pearson, have further complained of being ambushed by a process for the factional ballot in which a three-day nominations period was followed immediately by the start of voting.
The second place on the ticket, which is reserved to the dominant Labor Forum sub-faction of the Right, has been retained by incumbent Chris Ketter. The cancellation of the party membership vote saw off any threat from rival nominee Pat O’Neill, former army major and candidate for Brisbane in 2016, although he was reportedly unlikely to win in any case. Number three goes to Frank Gilbert, a former Mackay councillor and candidate for Dawson in 2016, and a member of the Old Guard sub-faction of the Right.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Tasmanian Labor’s union establishment has again lined up against Lisa Singh for Senate preselection, undeterred by the success of a below-the-line voting campaign in overturning her demotion at the 2016 election. Singh will presumably dominate the party member component of the vote, but is reportedly unlikely to do any better than the loseable third position. This is because the dominant Left wants places for an incumbent, Carol Brown, and John Short, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union official for whom Singh was relegated in 2016, while the Right is defending incumbent Catryna Bilyk.
• Tasmania’s Liberals are also conducting their Senate preselection vote on Saturday, and there are suggestions they too may repeat unhappy history from 2016. Richard Colbeck is again under pressure from conservative forces associated with Senator Eric Abetz, despite having almost matched Lisa Singh’s feat after being dumped to number five in 2016. He found his way back in the recount that followed Stephen Parry’s disqualification in November, and was promoted last week to the outer ministry, making him the only Tasmanian at that level of seniority. Brett Worthington at the ABC reports conservatives want the top position to go to Brett Whiteley, veteran of three winning and three losing campaigns at both federal and state level in Braddon, or alternatively to a woman. Further demotion beyond that would be particularly remarkable for Colbeck, as he is the only one of the four Tasmanian Liberal Senators facing re-election, the others having scored six-year terms. The other nominees for the preselection were detailed in an earlier instalment.
Assuming the Newspoll has now happened, here is how everyone did. Take a bow if you got it right.
Average: ALP 55.5 to 44.5 LNP
Median: ALP 55 to 45 LNP
Respondents: 44
———-
57 / 43 A different Michael
60 / 40 adrian
54 / 46 a r
58 / 42 Akubra
58 / 42 Al Pal
57 / 43 Andrew_Earlwood
62 / 38 antonbruckner11
57 / 43 Asha Leu
55 / 45 Aunt Mavis
66.6 / 33.4 Barney in Go Dau
55 / 45 BK
1 / 99 Boerwar
58 / 42 briefly
53 / 47 C@tmomma
54 / 46 Confessions
99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
60 / 40 Dave
56 / 44 Davidwh
57 / 43 d-money
57 / 43 Fulvio Sammut
60 / 40 Gecko
53 / 47 guytaur
56 / 44 Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 Ides of March.not logged in
53 / 47 imacca
53 / 47 jenauthor
53 / 47 Kevjohnno
53 / 47 Late Riser
52 / 48 ltep
55 / 45 LU not logged in
54 / 46 Lynchpin
56 / 44 Matt31
59 / 41 nath
55 / 45 poroti
58 / 42 ratsak
56 / 44 Rocket Rocket
50 / 50 Simon² Katich®
54 / 46 Simon² Katich®
55 / 45 steve davis
55 / 45 Socrates
54 / 46 Sohar
52 / 48 solwolf
54 / 46 Steve777
54.5 / 45.5 The Silver Bodgie
#newspoll Chris Kenny on SkyNews shares a “hint” on Newspoll.
No “Bounce” but PPM “better”.
So if true news ltd headlines will be on PPM i guess
Great travel TV, awesome. You either get her or you don’t, and I do.
Yes. I appreciated the fact that she was in awe but didn’t bung on side. If you get my drift?
@DTT
Apologies DTT. No offence was meant, and I was being somewhat facetious. I usually try very hard not to belittle anyone, and apologies that in this case I failed, and agree this is my fault not yours.
As you say, you are not in my side, and I do not think we could ever reach agreement about European or world politics in either the 20th or 21st centuries. Just different world views, very sincerely held by both of us.
Is National Wrap still on? Doesn’t Pats Karvelas get the Newspoll too?
Confessions says:
Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 8:54 pm
Boerwar:
And there has been speculation Banks will use parliamentary privilege to name and shame Liberal bullies as well.
The week promises to be quite something.
It sure does, don’t forget we also have Labor bully Emma Husar returning this week as well.
Interesting debate on Ben Raue’s Twitter feed about how to refer to swing %, this from Antony Green
So a seat that goes from 55:45 to 45:55 which we describe as a 10% swing becomes an 18.2% swing against and a 22.2% towards. No. It is 10% because a net 10% of the electorate changed.
If there is no bounce that will mean 56 – 44 (really 57 – 43). That’s a catastrophe. Surely the Airport Giveway can’t spin that.
Taylormade,
I hope it made you feel better calling Emma Husar a bully, for no good reason.
AB
56-44 is dreadfull numbers, PPM means zilch . The SkYFoxNews crowd saying PPM ‘has improved’ just shows their bias
Actually, “no bounce” could mean the sub is still sinking.
If there is no bounce that will mean 56 – 44
__________________
I thought there was hint of some movement if no bounce. so yes 56 or 55
@Taylormade
Emma Husar isn’t a bully, she’s a victim.
You rather die believing media over the high courts.
C@tmomma @ #4053 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 9:18 pm
I get it. And I got it, on hold on Iview, episode 2, while I say it’s good night from me, and thanks C@t. I’m taking Ms Lumley to bed.
What are our Balance of Trade figures – being the difference between what we import and export?
And what is the contribution of agriculture – both as an import and an export figure respectively?
Simply, we export Export quality product
Including under so called Free Trade Agreements
One of the beefs I have is that Export quality product is generally unavailable in Australia and instead we have access to lesser quality, imported product (look at the shelves of our Supermarkets) AND locally produced product which is not at Export quality
The problem is that we pay the premium export price for what is on supply to us
The upside is that produce is available “out of season”, but of inferior quality and at premium price
So when there is reference to what we import, there are always two sides to the story
We live in a Global economy
We import – including ideas and technology
And, similarly, we export
Including under so called “Free Trade Agreements”, because nothing is free
We also import Capital, accessed from Global Capital Markets
Then there is sustainable production such as from desalination plants and renewable energy resources – and driverless battery operated vehicles because fossil fuel, apart from anything else, is a finite resource which has to be diminishing
When statements are made including “ridiculous levels of immigration “ and “mass immigration” and references to imports with no reference to exports, the absence of supporting data makes the presentation untenable and naive
no bounce in Newspoll could be a PVO style ‘wow’.
It won’t tighten much for a while and then only from a massacre to a belting. The Libs are dead in the water for the foreseeable future.
It will be a long and hard road back unless Labor shoots themselves in the foot again.
SkyFoxNews presenters still blaming Turnbull for shocking government polling
Douglas and Milko @ #4058 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 9:18 pm
Apology accepted D&M
I am not sure what side you think I am on. I suspect that we would agree on 95% of matters
I have a slightly different world view on really only one or two matters but people blow it up out of all proportion.
My main thing is that I hate hypocrisy and therefore can get irritated with many who are unable or unwilling to see when they are being hypocritical.
Denial mindset.
56/44 no change
The Australian leads with ‘Wipeout’
Doesn’t Patricia Karvalas on her “wrap” program usually get ing first with newspoll nowadays??
“No bounce” is not inconsistent with “the polls are dropping like a stone”
56-44
sprocket_ @ #4068 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 9:28 pm
Que? But Scott made it rain this week with his prayers! People should be grateful! 🙂
Scott Morrison has moved ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred Prime Minister and is now a more popular leader than Malcolm Turnbull but the Coalition remains on track for an election wipe-out, notching its 40th straight losing Newspoll.
An exclusive Newspoll, conducted for The Australian between September 6-9, has the Coalition trailing Labor 44-56 on two-party preferred vote, with the Opposition lifting its primary vote a further point to 42 per cent on the back of continuing turmoil surrounding the government.
Labor’s primary vote marks the strongest support for the party since the days following Kevin Rudd’s dismissal in July 2010 and almost at the level of popular support that led to Labor’s 2007 landslide victory against John Howard.
The Coalition primary vote increased one point from 33 to 34 per cent.
The poll, which is based on 1653 interviews with voters across the nation, saw Mr Morrison move ahead of Bill Shorten as Better Prime Minister, at 42 to 36 per cent.
Mr Morrison, who was elected by the Liberal party room as leader on August 24, has also received a “honeymoon” boost to his performance ratings, with 41 per cent of voters satisfied and 39 per cent dissatisfied. Rating Mr Shorten’s performance, 37 per cent of voters said they were satisfied, with 51 per cent dissatisfied.
thought I’d just have a look at Ghostwhovotes – amazing!
New thread.
BW@8:36p.
Nick Cater put it in open because like all LNP males, politicians or otherwise, thougjt that they are alpha males and every body else should listen to them. People like Abbott have honed those skills from University days. How many of you remember that revelation when he was LOTO where a woman from his University days came forward and revealed that after he lost university student union president election to her he threatened her during night time.
Yowser on primaries!
ALP 42
L/NP 34
So the media will latch onto PPM numbers … I just don’t get people though … dunno how he had be preferred PM
Sky. Newspoll 56 – 44
Sky building up Morrison
39th Newspoll LNP loss?
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
3m3 minutes ago
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 44 (0) ALP 56 (0) #auspol
10 replies 71 retweets 73 likes
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
1m1 minute ago
#Newspoll Morrison: Approve 41 (+5 compared to Turnbull) Disapprove 39 (-16) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
52s53 seconds ago
#Newspoll Shorten: Approve 37 (+5) Disapprove 51 (-5) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
26s27 seconds ago
#Newspoll Preferred PM: Morrison 42 (+9) Shorten 36 (-3) #auspol
0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
Looks like stupid would rather have another idiot “I am A Prime Minister who needs work on self improving my own image”.
Rather than doing his job as PM.
“sprocket_ says:
Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 9:28 pm
SkyFoxNews presenters still blaming Turnbull for shocking government polling”
Will Murdoch send out his paparazzi types to confront Turnbull in NY and demand that he apologise for the Newspoll numbers?
a r @ #4001 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 8:23 pm
Our natural birth rate is already below the level needed to sustain our population. So we need some migration to sustain our present population.
Now, which of us is anti-immigration, and which of us is simply misinformed?
Observer @ #4002 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 8:24 pm
Sorry, I am neither uneducated nor are my opinions unsupported.
You, on the other hand …