BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll and Essential Research polls conducted last weekend, both of which were devastating for the Coalition. A trend measure like BludgerTrack is not at its best when a landslip like this occurs, and the latest result is characterised by an anomalous surge in the “others”. This is to do with the Coalition and Labor primary vote trends being calculated with very different smoothing parameters, which means the Coalition vote has caught up with the new situation but Labor’s has not.
Nonetheless, the two-party vote has ended up much where the two latest polls are, causing Labor to gain three on the seat projection in Victoria and one apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. All we have had so far on leadership ratings is one preferred prime minister result from Newspoll, which will not be useable until a sufficient base of Morrison-versus-Shorten data becomes available. Full results as always from the link below.
In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission has finally published preference data from the Super Saturday by-elections. These show that the Liberal National Party’s resounding defeat in Longman was achieved despite the fact that 67.74% out of the 15.91% One Nation vote flowed to them as preferences, a dramatic change from their 43.51% in 2016. Labor also had weaker flows of Greens preferences, down from 80.70% to 76.52% in Longman and 86.12% to 73.31% in Braddon. Also in Braddon, Labor received 74.34% of preferences from independent Craig Garland and a bare majority from Shooters Fishers and Farmers.
The full distribution of preferences reveal that the Liberal Democrats edged out the Greens to take second place in Fremantle, obtaining a strong flow of preferences to reach 22.20% to the Greens’ 21.72% at the penultimate count (14,037 to 13,734). Labor’s Josh Wilson prevailed with a two-party margin over the Liberal Democrats of 23.33%. In Perth, the Greens just edged out an independent to reach the final count, at which Labor’s Patrick Gorman was elected with a 13.10% margin.
I think the woman with Bannon is Sarah Ferguson ( 4 Corners).
Thanks, Briefly. Fantastic.
briefly says:
Sunday, September 2, 2018 at 8:39 pm
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=L5jI9I03q8E
Nina Simone…..brilliant
Bogan Morrison on camera on farm, was asked about his views of climate change and drought. He answered words to effect that ordinary folk like farmers are not interested in vague ideas like climate, they just want lower electricity” – I am trying to work out who is dumbest PM for decades – abbott or him. he is definitely the most inept speaker
next day farmers’ federation put our edict on seriousness of climate.
morrison also called for a response to drought like he made for safe borders.
WWP:
If it is Sarah Ferguson then I don’t understand Adrian ‘s statement that it isn’t the greatest photo for the ABC to use in its promo of upcoming 4Corners show. I figured if Bannon was featured, of course they’d put him in the promo photo, hence my question as to who the woman is, thinking that was the photo faux pas Adrian imagined the ABC had committed.
I answered a call for a doctor on a flight from Sydney to Tokyo. A woman had a child with a rash and was terrified it would die mid-flight. jeebus, what to do. Should we land in Guam?? Really? Anyway, the girl just didn’t look sick. Not land at Guam sick.
They sent me a little alarm clock afterwards. (JAL)
Are we all going to list our qualifications now?
Sarah Ferguson (if her) is certainly cuddling up to Bannon. An extremely strange pose for a journalist. Weird, in fact.
Standard pre-interview photo
ItzaDream @ #2476 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 8:51 pm
Good thing you didn’t think it was a meningococcal rash – imagine prophylaxing the plane.
“Um. That’s a bit harsh. ”
Yeah it was. I have a very soft spot in my heart for GPs, they do an awful job, for not much money and far to many of them commit suicide. I just think they are entitled to be called ‘Dr’ if they want, and if they don’t that is cool too, but I also think our chronic undervaluing of academic pursuit and achievement is a key social problem. If you have any PhD you are either smart or worked pretty hard. Maybe both. If you want to be recognised for that, so be it I’m not going to be a rude ignorant Trumper and deny you. In fact one of my uni colleagues, well a few of them, but only one I see regularly, went on to get their PhD in Science. Never brags or says a word about it, but I, their partner and few others go out of our way to acknowledge it, because that is the human, respectful thing to do.
WeWantPaul @ #1161 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 8:08 pm
While there may be a point there, I don’t think it’s one that would justify the complaints that were leveled at an airline check-in person for neglecting the read the title that’s printed on the boarding pass.
“Damnit peon you will give me the respect my station deserves, even if my expertise has precisely zero relevance to the current situation*” is a bullshit attitude too.
Don’t dismiss credentials as worthless, but also don’t act like it’s a first order issue if credentials aren’t acknowledged in places where they’re irrelevant. If Siobhan was on a Q&A panel as a subject-matter expert, and Tony Jones kept addressing her as “Ms. O’Dwyer”, then fair enough to get a bit miffed at that.
But some airline boarding agent has one chance to notice the title and misses it whilst busy trying to board an entire plane full of people? Nah. That won’t give us Trump** and a doctor should have better things to worry about.
*I’m assuming Siobhan’s Ph.D is not in ‘getting people onto an aircraft’.
**Unless, of course,
Ms.Dr. O’Dwyer’s loud and public complaint ends up with the poor airline employee getting sacked and then they decide “screw these intellectual elites and everything they stand for, I’m voting PHON”.“Are we all going to list our qualifications now?”
LOL, what’s yours?
Bushfire Bill @ #1197 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 8:47 pm
Because Rupert says so.
“Why is 48-35 a catastrophe for Turnbull against Dutton, but 45-40 is full steam ahead for Morrison against the same opponent?”
Because such a close result is nearly always a disaster for an incumbent leader, whereas a right result for a vacant position doesn’t necessarily carry the same odium.
Sohar…She’s really extraordinary 🙂
““Damnit peon you will give me the respect my station deserves, even if my expertise has precisely zero relevance to the current situation*” is a bullshit attitude too.”
If you are in a service industry reading what is on the card right isn’t that hard, in fact you probably have to make a deliberate, rude, decision to get it wrong. ‘Miss’ is almost never a compliment outside a subculture or two. I’m assuming it is a ‘she is flying economy – we can insult her’, situation and her response is entirely appropriate.
This blog must have some of the most highly qualified bloggers on the internet. As a consequence, I am going to start using my qualifications. I am Antonbruckner GCMG, DSO, VC and Bar, and don’t you forget it.
rhwombat @ #1209 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 8:56 pm
They were from Melbourne where there’d been an outbreak or a bad case and the index of suspicion was high, overly so in the mother!
If we are going to have fantasy titles and CVs- I’ll post mine:
Brigadier-general, VC, KCB, KCIE; Chevalier, Légion d’Honneur; US Medal of Honor; San Serafino Order of Purity and Truth, 4th Class. b.1822, s. H.Flashman, Esq, Ashby, and Hon.Alicia Paget; Educ. Rugby School: m. Elspeth Renie Morrison, d. Lord Paisley; one s., one d. Served Afghanistan, 1841-42 (medals, thanks of Parliament); Crimea (staff); India Mutiny (Lucknow, etc, VC); China, Taiping Rebelllion. Served US Army (major, Union forces, 1862); colonel (staff) Army of the Confederacy, 1863. Travelled extensively in military and civilian capacities; a.d.c. Emperor Maximilian of Mexico; milit. adviser, HM Queen Ranavalona of Madagascar; chief of staff to Rajan of Sarawak; dep.marshall, US. Chmn, Flashman and Bottomley Ltd; dir. British Opium Tradin Co; governor, Rugby School; hon.pres. Mission for the Reclamation of reduced Females. Publications: Dawns and Departures of a Soldier’s Life; Twixt Cossack and Cannon; The Case Against Army Reform. Clubs: White’s, United Service, Blackjack (Batavia).
Recreations: oriental studies, angling. Address: Gandamack Lodge, Ashby, Leics.
I am Antonbruckner GCMG
__________
Wow, as in God Calls Me God?
Impressive.
[‘These people are in no way Labor’s conscience. Those that still support Labor or represent Labor are Labor’s conscience’]
So how do you explain that upwards of 80% of Green preferences flow to Labor? The Greens should stop the pretence, stop spintering Labor’s primary vote, get onboard to defeat the real enemy – the Tories.
On top of that, the Greens will never form government due to their extreme positions, the electorate sitting in the middle, with ever so slight permutations. They’re nothing much more than a nuisance factor, reminiscent of the moribund DLP, which kept Labor out of office for 23 years.
I am an amateur gynaecologist.
Maybe we could make Tony Abbott Lord Warden of something, be it the Cinque Ports or something/somewhere else if their Lordship isn’t available. It’s a snazzy title for an Anglophile, it’s prestigious, doesn’t involve real work, he can wear fancy clothes and can’t cause serious damage.
Ides way back asked if the four Lower House Victorian seats (which the Liberals are reportedly thinking about not contesting) are in the same Legislative Council Province. This inspired me to check and it turns out that Richmond, Melbourne, Brunswick and Northcote are indeed in Northern Metropolitan. At the 2014 election the result was 2 Labor, 1 Green, 1 Sex Party (now Reason Party) and 1 Liberal . There would surely be a danger of sacrificing that single Liberal, given that the other seven Assembly districts are barren territory for the Liberal Party. The 2-party preferred Labor vote in 2014 ranged from 62%-78% in these seven seats. The Liberal primary vote was 33% in their best of the seven, but otherwise ranged from 17%-27%.
PvO’s column today.
hungry jack says:
Sunday, September 2, 2018 at 8:49 pm
Bogan Morrison on camera on farm, was asked about his views of climate change and drought. He answered words to effect that ordinary folk like farmers are not interested in vague ideas like climate, they just want lower electricity” – I am trying to work out who is dumbest PM for decades – abbott or him. he is definitely the most inept speaker
next day farmers’ federation put our edict on seriousness of climate.
morrison also called for a response to drought like he made for safe borders.
*******************
Perhaps he’s going to turn back the climate??
And I’m the one here with the title…… :p
Aunt Mavis:
On top of that, the Greens will never form government due to their extreme positions, the electorate sitting in the middle, with ever so slight permutations. They’re nothing much more than a nuisance factor, reminiscent of the moribund DLP, which kept Labor out of office for 23 years.
_______________
Yeah, true, but the DLP preferenced the Libs, the vast majority, typically 80%, of Greens preferences go to Labor on the whole.
AE – Tom Brown was right about you!
Don, I have been known to put God on hold.
there seem to be a number of people engaged in analysing, debating the whys and the wherefores regarding the place of the Greens with respect to the ALP. I have never been a member of the ALP. For much of my young adult life I was a Liberal voter (and a few times I even voted for the DLP). However, about 20 years ago, I found myself moving away from the conservative side of the political spectrum….and I started voting for the Democrats……as they faded from view……along came the awful episode of Howard and his ilk lying about desperate asylum seekers adrift in the Indian Ocean “throwing children overboard” in what came to be known as the Tampa crisis…..the unmistakable racist rabble rousing but sadly vote catching saw the Coalition snatch victory from what had seemed a definite defeat at the 2001 federal election. Like many, many other people of my later acquaintance, the Tampa episode was the catalyst for me joining the Greens and voting for the Greens. Looking back on that period, it was only the Greens who had the ticker to stand up against the race baiting of the Coalition and the pathetic weak response from the then leadership of the ALP. It is true that many of the early members of the Greens came from what people call the “extreme left” of the ALP. However, my story of moving from the right to the left is not a unique one. Some 16 years after joining the Greens, I do not regret that decision. I sincerely believe that the Greens are not some “off spring” or “moral conscience” of a very pragmatic ALP. Rather, I see the Greens as having developed from a varied background and continue to attract people – including large numbers of young people – drawn to the Greens unashamed progressive position on the political spectrum and the demonstrated willingness to stand up for justice and compassion even when that has seemed to be just blowing in the wind. In my time as a member of the Greens I have seen the significant influence hard working Greens local councillors, state and federal MPs have and continue to have across a wide range of societal issues. Critics of the Greens from within the ALP fail to acknowledge that the Greens are steadily growing in support – not only in long time ALP heartland seats – but in a number of long time blue ribbon Liberal seats (like Kooyong, Higgins and Wentworth). What the future holds for the Greens or the ALP or the Liberal/Nationals only time will tell. However, I fully expect (and I certainly hope) that the Greens will continue to progress and help make Australia and the world a better place for all and not just select sections of the populace.
WeWantPaul @ #1214 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 9:02 pm
I don’t know about that. I can think of some entirely benign reasons for getting it wrong:
1. Lots of people want to get on the plane, and they all want to be on it yesterday; a good boarding agent optimizes for speed, not accuracy at reading titles.
2. The boarding agents are checking the flight details on the card to prevent unauthorized access to the aircraft; even if not optimizing for speed, the passenger’s name/title is not priority information.
3. Most boarding passes would be scanned, and the scanners I’ve seen all have small LCD readouts that display first name, last name, and seat number; if the boarding agent was reading off the scanner, they may not have had title information displayed.
And I have trouble thinking up a plausible motive for why a boarding agent, busy trying to load an aircraft, would decide they need to snub a random passenger by deliberately getting their title wrong.
nath @ #1204 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 8:51 pm
Master of Science specializing in Computer Science. Now kneel before your betters! 🙂
Yes, nath, I failed the Intermediate Certificate (NSW) in ’64.
“And I have trouble thinking up a plausible motive for why a boarding agent, busy trying to load an aircraft, would decide they need to snub a random passenger by deliberately getting their title wrong”
Could be you are right, but if they want a very short career try that rubbish out on the business and first class passengers and see how many minutes they remain employed.
a r
Master of Science specializing in Computer Science. Now kneel before your betters!
___________________________________
HAHA. I think my cat has a better degree than that 😛
robert:
[‘For much of my young adult life I was a Liberal voter (and a few times I even voted for the DLP).’]
Your honesty is astouding!
But please consider your membership of the loony Greens.
Has anybody heard of the term hubris? There is plenty going on around on here at present. As Harold Wilson said, “a week is a long time in politics.” You can assume that I will not be offering a prediction on how much Labor will win the next election by. Talk about counting your chickens.
I think Wayne must have been Malcolm.
So obvious, now you think about it.
Noted, Don.
WeWantPaul @ #1234 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 6:18 pm
I’m sorry, but insisting on the use of a certain title in an environment where it has no relevance is complete and utter toss.
She’s just another bum on a seat like everyone else, no more, no less! 🙂
Clem Attlee:
The chickens predict a loss of 23 seats. Best you get on the money.
Barnaby Beetrooter going off his nut on the National Wrap. The man is a complete clown. Hope he gets up and down the country, as every time he opens his big mouth he will turn people away from the coalition.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bMmhHBr7WDA
And so is this 🙂
Aunt Mavis (female black bird) having a bit of a guess isn’t a problem, but what’s with the predictions that Labor are going to get over a hundred seats?
Clem Attlee @ #1245 Sunday, September 2nd, 2018 – 7:35 pm
Aren’t the various tips being made precisely that: peeps having a bit of a guess?
If we are comparing titles, I have a modest Bachelor of Applied Science. And it is not in science.
My late husband was a Freeman of The River Colne.
I am the Lord and Master of Entropy Park
If you missed this story – surfacing trouble in Saxony where they don’t feel integrated and don’t feel like integrating.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/02/germanys-far-right-never-went-away-but-festered-in-its-eastern-stronghold
In days of yore, at this time of night there used to be shocking, just shocking exchanges. PB has certainly cleaned up its act – but I do somewhat miss the old days(?). And so to bed.