Post-leadership change turbulence costs the Liberals a sitting MP in a crucial marginal seat, as preselection hopefuls jockey for safe seat vacancies:
• Liberal MP Julia Banks yesterday announced she will not recontest her Melbourne seat of Chisholm, citing bullying she was subjected to ahead of last week’s leadership vote by the anti-Malcolm Turnbull camp. Banks won the seat on the retirement of Labor member Anna Burke in 2016, making her the only Coalition member to gain a seat from Labor at the election. Rob Harris of the Herald Sun reports the Liberals will choose their new candidate in a community preselection, which presumably entails an open primary style arrangement in which anyone on the electoral roll can participate. Labor has endorsed Jennifer Yang, former adviser to Bill Shorten and mayor of Manningham who ran second as a candidate in the Melbourne lord mayoral election in May, finishing 3.0% behind winning candidate Sally Capp after preferences. The party initially preselected the unsuccessful candidate from 2016, former Monash mayor Stefanie Perri, but she announced her withdrawal in May, saying she had been deterred by the expreience of Tim Hammond.
• Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald cites “several senior Liberals” who say the “only real contenders” for the Wentworth preselection are Dave Sharma, former ambassador to Israel, and Andrew Bragg, a director at the Business Council of Australia and former leader of the Yes same-sex marriage survey campaign. The report says Sharma has moderate factional support, including from powerbroker Michael Photios, while Bragg is supported in local branches. It also says it is no foregone conclusion that Labor will contest the seat, despite having an election candidate in place in Tim Murray, managing partner of investment research firm J Capital. An earlier report by Alexandra Smith suggested Christine Forster’s bid for Liberal preselection appeared doomed in part because, as an unidentified Liberal source put it: “She is an Abbott and how does that play in a Wentworth byelection? Not well I would suggest.”
• Primrose Riordan of The Australian identifies three potential candidates to succeed Julie Bishop in Curtin, assuming she retires. They are Emma Roberts, a BHP corporate lawyer who contested the preselection to succeed Colin Barnett in the state seat of Cottesloe, but was defeated by David Honey; Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne; and Rick Newnham, chief econmist at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
• Sally Whyte of the Canberra Times reports a Greens-commissioned ReachTEL poll of the Canberra electorate suggests ACT Liberal Senator Zed Seselja’s role in Malcolm Turnbull’s demise may have put his seat in danger. Elections for the ACT’s two Senate seats have always resulted in one seat each for Labor, but the Liberal seat could potentially fall to the Greens if its vote fell significantly below one third. After allocating results of a forced response question for the initially undecided, the results are Labor 39.6%, the Greens 24.2%, Liberal 23.7% and One Nation 2.8%. Even accounting for the fact that the Canberra electorate is particularly strong for the Greens, these numbers suggest there would be a strong possibility of Greens candidate Penny Kyburz overhauling Seselja on preferences. The poll also finds 64.6% of voters saying Seselja’s role in Turnbull’s downfall made them less likely to vote for him, with only 13.0% saying it made them more likely to, and 22.4% saying it made no difference. Among Liberal voters, the respective figures were 38.7%, 29.6% and 31.7%.
In other news, the Liberals in New South Wales are managing expectations ahead of a feared defeat in Saturday week’s Wagga Wagga state by-election, most likely at the hands of independent Joe McGirr. Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports a ReachTEL poll commissioned by Shooters Fishers and Farmers has the Liberals on 30.2%, Labor on 23.8%, McGirr on 18.4% and Shooters Fishers and Farmers on 10.9%, after exclusion of the 7.4% undecided. However, McGirr faces a complication in Shooters Fishers and Farmers’ unusual decision to direct preferences to Labor, which could potentially prevent him from overtaking them to make the final count. According to Clennell’s report, “any government loss post-mortem would be expected to focus on why the Liberals did not let the Nationals run for the seat”.
dtt
‘Then we have annually about 343,000 student visas approved’
Quibble. No, we don’t. Annually, there are about 170,000* approved – there are 380,000 student visa holders.
So (if Katter’s figures are based on this) he’s double counting.
*2017 – recognised as an exceptionally high figure.
dtt
‘So we have about $215,000 new immigrants seeking work.’
I’ll also quibble this figure. Not every new immigrant is seeking work.
Poroti,
I’m sure the insects of Northern Australia will be grateful that Morrison the Missionary is going to provide more loaves and an abundance of other foods for them to feast on again. 🙂
jenauthor:
That’s disappointing to hear.
How Much of Our Brain Do We Use? — And Other Questions Answered
This question has been at the heart of the recent turmoil within the Liberal Party.
LNP scientific research – encompassing the entrails of the goats which survived the volcano expeditionary venture , tea leaves, phrenology and suchlike staple searches for truth; have discovered that enlivening the brain via telepathic thought implants can result in explosions of meditative like responses in a manner similar to the ancient cambrian explosion*. These explosion are hoped to give rise to the Holy Grail of Liberal/Religious life – that is – a policy – any policy.
The party has tasked the Liberal Party Chief Fixerupper and Putterdowner to begin work on the secret thought implanter transmission device. This device will be powered by steam – run from the boiler of an antique Stanley Steamer vehicle held in reserve for state occasions such as “Funerals for Empathetic and Caring Liberal Senators”.
The transmission device research is nearing completion and the manufacture and sales system has already by outsourced to the Centre for Thinking About Stuff for the Public Good.
Thorny problems currently defying solution are as follows:-
Who ❓ In the current gladbag of MPs and Senators is capable of receiving information from an external source ❓
Problem 2. What if the ordinary citizen should start receiving the brain expander transmissions ❓
It is thought that if the system begins to function as planned, then the thought expander receiver’s head will begin to glow in the dark. This is not thought to be significant by the mainstream ( ❓ ) Liberals as being shining examples of merit and magnificence each of their collective heads already glow in the dark.
Further information will be made available as it comes to hand.
🙄😵😳😲😱
Thank you, BK.
I see that Peru is now being forced into emergency responses to help all the people who have knocked back Maduro’s 3000% wage increase and who are not quite convinced that knocking 5 zeros off the end of each of Venezuela’s currency units is actually sound economics – even though it is in line with the Greens’ general fiscal notion that you just make money up as required.
DaretoTread @ #94 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 9:20 am
Um, no. Just no. 650,000 may be accurate in terms of describing the total number of semi-permanent migrant arrivals from all countries, everywhere, but that is absolutely not how Katter described it. His exact words were:
Which is patently false. The bulk of these people would actually be from democratic, Western countries that have all or most of those things. Katter getting one small part of a multi-premise assertion technically correct in isolation does not make him right. What he actually said is very, very WRONG.
jen
He’s been infected!
dtt
(Sorry, fact checking takes time…)
‘in 2017 we had90,000..’
Again, this was a total, not an annual number. The annual number was just over 8200.
Katter is thus using cumulative numbers and talking of them as annual ones.
It may be correct to say we have had 650,000 extra workers enter the country over (say) five years (I don’t know how long the various visa holders have been in the country). It is not 650,000 extra workers each year.
The new migrants consist of:
‘Of people migrating to Australia, 68 per cent are skilled migrants and 32 per cent are from family visa streams. This is further broken down to:
Skill: 38 per cent employer sponsored, 34 per cent skilled independent, 22 per cent state, territory and regional nominated and 6 per cent business
Family: 79 per cent partner, 14 per cent parent, 6 per cent child and 1 per cent other.’
Some of those partners will not be seeking work; some of those parents will be of retirement age; the 6% of children might take a local paper round off some deserving local, but otherwise won’t pose too much threat.
https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/about/reports-publications/research-statistics/statistics/live-in-australia/migration-programme
190,000 total migrants (not all seeking work, so let’s take that down to 150,000) + 170,000 students* + 8000 working visas = 328,000, about half of Katter’s figure.
*not all seeking work
zoomster @ #102 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 9:30 am
Zoomster
Yes silly quibble. There are a few secondary immigrants but they were NOT in the figures I think (cannot recall and do not plan to check – you can – it was easy).
Of course new immigrants plan to work – they do not get visas if they are to just go on the dole and the number of dependent seniors allowed in is miniscule – I think I heard somewhere that the waiting list is 56 years to bring in ageing parents. So I guess you have dependent spice (spouses) and some kids.
The big unknown is the number of students who actually work. The reality from my anecdotal knowledge (yes anecdotal so not scientifically accurate) is that European and South american students tend to get paid employment in unionized places, Indian students are often sham contractors and Chinese and Thai students get paid below award wages in Asian restaurants. But that is just my experience. Others may know much more.
DaretoTread @ #111 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 9:43 am
Still, not really. Even ignoring everything else that’s wrong about what Katter said, students are not permanent migrants. Eventually they go back where they came from.
They don’t belong in the same count as migrants coming in on permanent visas.
Morrison’s Abbott appointment is almost up there with Abbott’s anointing of Prince Phillip. Panic leads to stupid actions.
Why do you bother commenting on something on which you have no idea?
For example, there are parent visas that take 2-3 years if you have the money.
Education is one of australia’s leading ‘exports’ and we’d really cut our own throat if we restricted it because of xenophobic dickheads like Katter and other angry old white men. Among the many international students are future political and business leaders of their countries. If they go back home saying “Australians have a beautiful country but are racist pricks who don’t know how lucky they are” (& I think many do) then we’ve missed an opportunity. Much better if they go back and say “Australia is a beautiful, multi-cultural, diverse and open society”. It’s not going happen until the LNP stops playing the race card, labor stops playing a dead bat, and both are willing to show some leadership and take on PHON, Katter and dickheads and opportunists in their own ranks. Out current PM (at 9.45am 20/08/2018 – might be different soon 🙂 ) once called on the party room to ‘use’ racial division and xenophobia about muslims. An Australian-Malaysian friend of mine who once shocked me in the 80s telling me that he routinely go abused, spat on and punched by strangers on public transport and just walking down the street in Melbourne, and who is now a early 50 y.o. post-doc academic tells me that “it’s not as bad as it was, but it still happens and has got worse again over the last few years”. Must make the likes of Katter, Dutton and SCumMO proud.
the education export boom may not last – universities in asia are becoming world class so it will become competitive to keep these students and if the word is that australia is a racist place, then we can kiss that revenue and international links to future leaders goodbye.
..I will add that, of course, someone on a student visa may not be here for a full year – for example, my son and several of his friends went to Malaysia on student visas and were there for six weeks. Given that this is a campus of a Victorian University, many Malaysian students from there would be coming here for similar short periods.
zoomster @ #109 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 9:35 am
No zoomster
The figures are NOT cumulative. There were 183,000 places issued in 2016/17. That is not cumulative at all. I have no idea why you argue it is. Fact checking does take time. 67% was skilled migration and the remainder family union of who most were adult partners.
Indeed Zoomster you are just wRONg. Nearly all the 190, are WORKERS or potential workers. Also you did not include the Kiwis. So Katter 1, Zoomster 0
Also you ignore the 457 Visas and students. whoops
We really need a few more polls to reinforce latest changes during and around the Turnbull overthrow. The momentum moving towards the 1972 election and the ‘it’s time’ slogan had some similiar political patterns to the current mob of LNP.
The right wing in 1972 just refused to accept that the mood had changed and the majority of people wanted a change from the ‘we know best’ mob.
Futher movement away from the LNP will occur to counter some of the climate doesn’t exist, largesse is good for the rich and the born to rule attitudes which has exposed itself so early in the political life of a new PM.
Abbott as a special envoy for indigenous peoples is so ludicrously patronising, it’s beyond belief. The GBR donation is not even close to being acceptable and the public will demand a return of the money. Morrison just does not have the capacity to understand the changes in the voters frustration with the direction the LNP has been forcing Australia to follow.
I expect the people of Wentworth to express their disappointment with the LNP. I expect the people of the ACT to express their disappointment with Seselja and the LNP. I expect the people of Wagga to express their disappointment with the LNP this weekend.
The mood of the country has changed despite the efforts of the media to counter this change. The momentum for change has a long way to go.
Trump reignites CNN feud by calling Carl Bernstein a ‘sloppy degenerate fool’
President Donald Trump reignited his feud with CNN Wednesday attacking a report by Carl Bernstein.
“CNN is being torn apart from within based on their being caught in a major lie and refusing to admit the mistake. Sloppy @carlbernstein, a man who lives in the past and thinks like a degenerate fool, making up story after story, is being laughed at all over the country! Fake News” Trump tweeted.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/trump-reignites-cnn-feud-calling-carl-bernstein-sloppy-degenerate-fool/
Chelsea Manning should quickly register with an au pair agency that supplies nannies to L/NP politicians and friends:
Mueller has ‘prosecutorial parachute’ to continue investigations if Trump pulls a Saturday Night Massacre: report
On Wednesday, Frank Figliuzzi, former assistant director for Counterintelligence at the Federal Bureau of Investigation told MSNBC’s Katy Tur that special counsel Robert Muller has a ‘prosecutorial parachute’ set in place.
“Let’s talk about the intersection between Robert Mueller, Jeff Sessions, and Don McGahn,” Tur said. “Mr.McGahn was unsuccessful and the president erupted in anger in front of numerous White House officials.”
“I think there are plans being put in place. What I call prosecutorial parachute with maybe sealed cases tied up in those for certain state, U.S. state district attorney’s offices and various U.S. attorneys around the states. The clock is ticking.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/mueller-has-set-up-prosecutorial-parachutes-to-continue-investigations-after-trumps-saturday-night-massacre-report/
Chelsea Manning is a convicted criminal. I can see no particular benefit to Australia in letting her into the country.
zoomster @ #118 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 10:00 am
Well while this is true occasionally the more common patter is that students arrive with a two or three year OFFER. Indeed there are quite a lot of SCHOOL students who have offers for 5-6 years. Yes I know hard to fathom why a 12 year old has a five year student visa to study in a Qld state school but I promise you they do. Sometimes their mothers have accompanying adult visas. I suspect they are not able to work. Of course the large majority get a three year visa to study at University. Most of these kids DO work
Don McGahn had no idea he was leaving the White House until Trump’s tweet: ‘It’s death by Twitter’
White House counsel Don McGahn had planned to leave the White House sometime after the midterm elections, but President Donald Trump took it upon himself to speed up the timeline. In a Wednesday morning tweet, the president shoved McGhan out.
“White House Counsel Don McGahn will be leaving his position in the fall, shortly after the confirmation (hopefully) of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court. I have worked with Don for a long time and truly appreciate his service!” Trump tweeted.
However, Washington Post reporter Robert Costa explained on an MSNBC political panel that McGahn had no idea this move was coming from Trump. He explained that Capitol Hill is starting to get nervous about this recent decision.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/don-mcgahn-no-idea-leaving-white-house-trumps-tweet-death-twitter/
Good Morning
Angus Taylor is on my TV announcing the Liberal Party era of socialism
sustainable future @ #115 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 9:55 am
Sustainable
Much as i would love to agree with you about the wonderful future leaders studying here I am sorry to say that most are lazy ne’er do wells sent here because their parents think it is the last chance saloon. They come to Australia because they think it is easy and they are not academically good enough to get in anywhere else. – that is the Chinese anyway.
I am told that the Brazilians come to party – but I cannot confirm this from personal experience.
Sorry I know this is harsh and I am sure there are exceptions, but I have a very jaundiced view based on actual experience of the younger set. I would very much like to change my mind.
lizzie @ #41 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 5:02 am
I’ve long said it would be interesting if our Politicians were made to do the IELTS test being proposed for migrants.
Maybe we could start with making them do the NAPLAN tests.
I share your relief, 100% on all of them, but there was one question on punctuation where the only possible correct answer didn’t have a full stop at the end of the sentence. 🙂
lizzie @ #10 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 4:26 am
It was good to see Trog posting again 🙂
Along with a few others from times past.
@AusWindAll tweets
New energy minister @AngusTaylorMP rails against cheap #wind and #solar, set to promote expensive #coal and gas as solution to lowering power prices. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-am-not-sceptical-about-climate-science-energy-minister-angus-taylor-hits-back-in-new-price-pledge-20180829-p500je.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed&csp=c146f2cd39e66deebfc1578424ed4ccf
Edit: Yes BK posted this in the Dawn Patrol. Just posting as its the content of this speech. I don’t know if there is a question period.
Sustainable
While I know Katter can be crazy there was axtually NOY a rwacist element directlyin his comments. Of those new immigrants a lot are Pommies so it is not specifically race related..
The fairly obvious point is that if you bring in 200,00 adults permanently plus 300,00 students who want part time work then you MUST have employment for them. This is obvious.
it is NOT specifically racist although there obviously is a racist component in the public eye.
What can you say?
How can you respond to something so moronic?
Some good news on the legal front:
Boerwar @ #124 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 10:07 am
What was her crime? Making sure the public knew about things that their democratically elected government was getting up to?
I think Australia is in desperate need of precisely that kind of ‘criminal’ right now. We need transparency on Nauru, and Manus, and Reefgate, and au-pairs, and Parliamentary bullying, and jobs-for-mistresses, and AWU raids, and “on water matters”, and so many other things.
The government’s modus-operandi is to declare it illegal for anyone with any actual knowledge of what it’s doing to actually publicize their knowledge. Why enable such anti-democratic rubbish by supporting their efforts to stifle someone who stood up and took the hit for doing exactly that?
Good to see you posting again, Trog.
Thanks Heavens for renewable enrgy, which is bringing down power prices for all Australians.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/30/renewables-forecast-to-halve-wholesale-energy-prices-over-four-years?CMP=share_btn_fb
If you want higher power bills, vote LNP: The party of higher power bills.
DaretoTread @ #132 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 10:19 am
That’s not how Katter told it.
@BernardKeane
https://www.crikey.com.au/2018/08/30/liberals-block-manning-but-allowed-in-convicted-leaker-to-raise-funds-for-them/
Adrian
There is a cohort that may indeed think the way DTT has posted. Or at least tells us Aussies that. 🙂
It sounds to me more like the stuff that gets peddled by the racists so could be doing the rounds in Queensland. The bit about under award wages is across the board of course as we have seen with some celebrity chefs.
So yes moronic. Anecdotal tale telling. Yeah could be.
Sustainable
Your point about the booms not lasting is of course very true. it seems to me that all China needs to do to give payback for the recent Huwei decision is to simply slow down the number of students permitted to study here. They need only start a University (or Tech college) in Gwanjo to cut 20% out of our education exports. This could cater for the many kids who cannot get into Chinese Unis so come to Australia.
guytaur @ #140 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 10:24 am
Racism pure and simple.
How shameful is this…
The warehouse fire in West Footscray is one of the biggest Melbourne has seen for years. Lots of nasty chemicals that were in storage have contributed to the blaze not to mention the asbestos in the walls and ceilings. Smoke could be seen (and smelt) from far away as Geelong and I could see it coming in from Gisborne on the train.
The warehouse is huge – 200m x 100m in size.
Thirty appliances and 120 MFB crew.
Interestingly the EPA appear to be under fire again from some quarters on Jon Faine ABC Mornings show wrt their (in)ability to provide advice, etc.
No doubt this story will continue for some time.
Adrian
Yes most racism is moronic 🙂
Reason doesn’t come into it.
Speaking of racism being moronic
@ACLU tweets
Banning Black students from school because of their hair is humiliating and happens too often.
The regulation of Black people’s hair often starts in school, but doesn’t end there. Dress codes in schools AND workplaces must take racial equity into account. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/opinion/black-hair-girls-shaming.html
c@t
Anyone who meets criteria can avail themselves of the au pair arrangements. For those countries where Australia has working holiday reciprocity, approval for young people is pretty much a formality.
I am looking forward to the stories on Mark Latham’s defamation case. Apparently the judge is not impressed 🙂
guytaur @ #140 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 10:24 am
Guytaur
What are you smoking?
I simply listed FACTS not hypothesis or racist stuff.
Jeepers mate. You wonder why people have a go at you. I never have but honestly it gets on my goat when you fail to understand what people are posting.
I posted data on NEW entrants into the Australian jobs market. Not racist at all. Just actual data.
My other comments were also based on actual personal experience (not the partying Brazilians) but certainly the rest. Moreover it is not in any way shape or form racist.
Australia after all was largely settled by the rejects of UK society – the convicts, the NSW corp of largely cowardly ne’er do wells who did not want to fight an actual enemy eg the french plus the ‘remittance men” the upper class drunks and layabouts sent here so as not to embarrass their relatives at home eg the Wentworths.
So whereas in 1980 the students who came to Australia from overseas were generally top class and indeed the leaders of their society, with the massive expansion over the last decade, this is much, much less the case.
You mentioned Malaysia and indeed I think you are still probably very correct. However my experience has mostly been with Chinese students and there sadly the boys in particular are a mob of sad sacks. There are exceptions of course.
The Japanese students by contrast seem to be of a much higher standard – mainly because they are really exchange students rather than long term students. Those from Korea and Hong Kong are seeking permanent residence.
I have had no personal experience with Indian students so I am not sure what they are like
I find it hard to believe Chinese students in Australia are lazy ne’er-do-wells. For a start, they have to be fluent in English. Do I need to point out how incredibly difficult it is to learn English when your mother tongue is a Chinese language? They must be doing something right, just to clear that hurdle.