Après le déluge

Situations vacant for aspiring Liberals, first in Wentworth, now in Chisholm, and perhaps soon in Curtin. Also: polls for the ACT Senate and next weekend’s New South Wales state by-election in Wagga Wagga, neither good for the Libs.

Post-leadership change turbulence costs the Liberals a sitting MP in a crucial marginal seat, as preselection hopefuls jockey for safe seat vacancies:

• Liberal MP Julia Banks yesterday announced she will not recontest her Melbourne seat of Chisholm, citing bullying she was subjected to ahead of last week’s leadership vote by the anti-Malcolm Turnbull camp. Banks won the seat on the retirement of Labor member Anna Burke in 2016, making her the only Coalition member to gain a seat from Labor at the election. Rob Harris of the Herald Sun reports the Liberals will choose their new candidate in a community preselection, which presumably entails an open primary style arrangement in which anyone on the electoral roll can participate. Labor has endorsed Jennifer Yang, former adviser to Bill Shorten and mayor of Manningham who ran second as a candidate in the Melbourne lord mayoral election in May, finishing 3.0% behind winning candidate Sally Capp after preferences. The party initially preselected the unsuccessful candidate from 2016, former Monash mayor Stefanie Perri, but she announced her withdrawal in May, saying she had been deterred by the expreience of Tim Hammond.

• Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald cites “several senior Liberals” who say the “only real contenders” for the Wentworth preselection are Dave Sharma, former ambassador to Israel, and Andrew Bragg, a director at the Business Council of Australia and former leader of the Yes same-sex marriage survey campaign. The report says Sharma has moderate factional support, including from powerbroker Michael Photios, while Bragg is supported in local branches. It also says it is no foregone conclusion that Labor will contest the seat, despite having an election candidate in place in Tim Murray, managing partner of investment research firm J Capital. An earlier report by Alexandra Smith suggested Christine Forster’s bid for Liberal preselection appeared doomed in part because, as an unidentified Liberal source put it: “She is an Abbott and how does that play in a Wentworth byelection? Not well I would suggest.”

• Primrose Riordan of The Australian identifies three potential candidates to succeed Julie Bishop in Curtin, assuming she retires. They are Emma Roberts, a BHP corporate lawyer who contested the preselection to succeed Colin Barnett in the state seat of Cottesloe, but was defeated by David Honey; Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne; and Rick Newnham, chief econmist at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

• Sally Whyte of the Canberra Times reports a Greens-commissioned ReachTEL poll of the Canberra electorate suggests ACT Liberal Senator Zed Seselja’s role in Malcolm Turnbull’s demise may have put his seat in danger. Elections for the ACT’s two Senate seats have always resulted in one seat each for Labor, but the Liberal seat could potentially fall to the Greens if its vote fell significantly below one third. After allocating results of a forced response question for the initially undecided, the results are Labor 39.6%, the Greens 24.2%, Liberal 23.7% and One Nation 2.8%. Even accounting for the fact that the Canberra electorate is particularly strong for the Greens, these numbers suggest there would be a strong possibility of Greens candidate Penny Kyburz overhauling Seselja on preferences. The poll also finds 64.6% of voters saying Seselja’s role in Turnbull’s downfall made them less likely to vote for him, with only 13.0% saying it made them more likely to, and 22.4% saying it made no difference. Among Liberal voters, the respective figures were 38.7%, 29.6% and 31.7%.

In other news, the Liberals in New South Wales are managing expectations ahead of a feared defeat in Saturday week’s Wagga Wagga state by-election, most likely at the hands of independent Joe McGirr. Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports a ReachTEL poll commissioned by Shooters Fishers and Farmers has the Liberals on 30.2%, Labor on 23.8%, McGirr on 18.4% and Shooters Fishers and Farmers on 10.9%, after exclusion of the 7.4% undecided. However, McGirr faces a complication in Shooters Fishers and Farmers’ unusual decision to direct preferences to Labor, which could potentially prevent him from overtaking them to make the final count. According to Clennell’s report, “any government loss post-mortem would be expected to focus on why the Liberals did not let the Nationals run for the seat”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,383 comments on “Après le déluge”

Comments Page 1 of 28
1 2 … 28

  1. Sarah Palin is not invited to John McCain’s funeral: report

    Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has reportedly not been invited to attend the memorial for her one-time running mate, the late John McCain.

    MSNBC booking director Jesse Rodriguez tweeted Wednesday that NBC White House correspondent Kelly O’Donnell learned that Palin was not invited to McCain’s memorial.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/sarah-palin-not-invited-john-mccains-funeral-report/

  2. GOP candidate Ron DeSantis warns Florida not to ‘monkey up’ the state by electing his black opponent Andrew Gillum

    The newly anointed GOP candidate, currently U.S. Representative for Florida’s 6th congressional district, went on Fox News on Wednesday to criticize his opponent, Democrat Andrew Gillum, mayor of the state’s capital city, Tallahassee. Gillum would be the state’s first black governor.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/gop-candidate-ron-desantis-warns-florida-not-monkey-state-electing-black-opponent-andrew-gillum/

  3. Trump calls Ron DeSantis ‘extraordinary’ seconds after learning that he used ‘monkey’ to slur black opponent

    President Donald Trump on Wednesday praised Republican candidate for governor Ron DeSantis as “extraordinary” after it was revealed that the gubernatorial candidate suggested that this African-American opponent was a “monkey.”

    During a pool spray in the Cabinet Room, CNN’s Jim Acosta told Trump that DeSantis had used the phrase “monkey this up” when talking about Democratic candidate Andrew Gillum.

    “Is it racist?” Acosta pressed.

    But Trump ignored the question.

    “Ron DeSantis is extraordinary,” Trump said. “Harvard, Yale. Brilliant. Ran an incredible campaign.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/trump-calls-ron-desantis-extraordinary-learning-used-monkey-slur-black-opponent/

  6. At last!

    The president of the National Farmers’ Federation, Fiona Simson, has declared that climate change is making drought worse in Australia and says tiptoeing around the subject does not do regional communities any good.

    “It is the effect of climate change we need to be aware of that makes the impacts of a drought even worse,” she told the National Press Club.

    “As a community, we want to talk about it and the more discussions we have about and the more open people are in talking about it, then the less uncomfortable it becomes.

  9. dtt

    ‘I am glad that you would not preference the LNP. What about others of our many greenophobics here.’

    I don’t know if you’re having a dig at me or not – I do wish you’d show a bit more courage instead of this kind of wimpy blanket statement – but, as I’ve often pointed out, I am not greenophobic. As a candidate and campaign co ordinator, I’ve had a major say in preference allocations locally at both State and federal level for over twenty years, and the Greens are always placed well above the Libs and Nats. (They’ve usually second, but occasionally I’ve put a good left of centre independent candidate in there, to encourage them).

    Criticism of a friend can be constructive. I am, needless to say, fully supportive of whoever we put up as a candidate here – and I’m far more critical of them (and myself, in the same situation) than I am of any Green, BECAUSE I want them to do the best they can.

  11. Morning all and thanks William. On Seselja’s ACT Senate seat, if it emerges that he was one of those who bullied Julia Banks I would say he is in even more trouble. That would not go down well in progressive Canberra.

  13. I’m losing track of who it was won the last election for the Coalition. I thought it was a female Lib from NSW. Now it turns out it’s Julia Banks.

  15. Every so often the Greens in the ACT fantasise about winning the 2nd Senate seat there. A string of high profile candidates have run over the years, all with no success – not even close.

    This time it will be no different. Zed Seselja is from the not insignificant Croatian heritage community, and a solid small business, contractor and older demographic will see the alleged member of the Bullying Three over the line.

  16. Electoral statistics say that the people who vote either ALP or Green overwhelmingly preference each other before any conservative. Having said that, who people preference and in what order they do it is entirely up to them. That is their democratic right.
    You may make allegations about what posters here do with their preferences but in reality you will never know because the ballot is secret………..lol
    Methinks some posters are having some fun at the expense of others…..lol

  17. Zed is safe. The two senate seats in ACT will always go 1 Lab or 1 Lib unless either party fails to lodge a nomination.

  18. Just read that Turnbull is going overseas for 6 weeks and will take no part in the campaign for Wentworth.

    Unsurprising, surely.

  19. The Julia Banks story may well see a turning point hopefully in politics and how politicians interact with each other on the same side and their opposition numbers.

    I’ve always thought play the ball and not the person to coin a football phrase.

  20. Good morning Bludgers from my phone still 🙁 Hopefully my fresh modem arrives today.

    I see the self -aggrandising know-it-all dtt congratulated herself for -hitting a nerve’, using reverse logic with a dose of snark so beloved of the clueless with rocks in their head.

    *sigh*

    Never mind. It is our sovereign duty at PB Enterprises to fight the stupid and never let the stupid win.

    Onwards. 🙂

  23. zoomster and C@t

    I’m always faintly irritated by anyone who makes sweeping statements about any group of people. And after being irritated, I stop reading them. 🙁

  25. Lizzie,

    That could be a good thing that MT is going O/s during the Wentworth campaign… give the new candidate some air etc.

    Besides MT doesn’t owe the LNP anything IMHO.

  26. lizzie,
    Me too! Especially when the sweeping statement grandiosely ascribes a knowledge of how I or anyone else preferences other political parties. It was just plainly ignorant stuff. Which was why I responded for once.

  27. Ides of March.not logged in @ #17 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 7:38 am

    Zed is safe. The two senate seats in ACT will always go 1 Lab or 1 Lib unless either party fails to lodge a nomination.

    Ides not 100% safe

    Now I speak as one with REAL experience in that matter. Should one of the majors fall below 28% primary it is possible – but very, very unlikely. Should a government slash ACT public servants then it is possible – but there is now a much larger private sector in the ACT so I guess it is even more unlikely.

  29. Shouldn’t the Tele be selling mushroom growing kits instead of cucumber?

    I like the title of this thread WB, a quick Google explained the wit. 🙂

  30. Akubra

    After such a stressful period, Malcolm needs time to recover. There are many in the govt who probably feel much the same!

  36. Interesting.

    Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 47m47 minutes ago

    The Liberal Party should establish a code of conduct to prevent bullying and aggressive behaviour towards women, an internal review found March 2015.
    Yet Michael and Helen Kroger, are all over the media today denying there’s a problem.
    Could the pair be part of the problem?

  41. The low comprehension skills of some pollies are of great concern.

    Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 20m20 minutes ago

    It really is quite something that a faction of the government killed Turnbull because wicked renewables drive up power prices when renewables are what’s bringing prices down, and will do for years on current indications https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/30/renewables-forecast-to-halve-wholesale-energy-prices-over-four-years?CMP=share_btn_tw … #auspol

  42. zoomster @ #9 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 7:21 am

    dtt

    ‘I am glad that you would not preference the LNP. What about others of our many greenophobics here.’

    I don’t know if you’re having a dig at me or not – I do wish you’d show a bit more courage instead of this kind of wimpy blanket statement – but, as I’ve often pointed out, I am not greenophobic. As a candidate and campaign co ordinator, I’ve had a major say in preference allocations locally at both State and federal level for over twenty years, and the Greens are always placed well above the Libs and Nats. (They’ve usually second, but occasionally I’ve put a good left of centre independent candidate in there, to encourage them).

    Criticism of a friend can be constructive. I am, needless to say, fully supportive of whoever we put up as a candidate here – and I’m far more critical of them (and myself, in the same situation) than I am of any Green, BECAUSE I want them to do the best they can.

    Jeepers Zoomster

    You are very sensitive. You were not anywhere NEAR my thoughts. I do not think you are an extreme RW type at all. Certainly on the right although you do not accept it but by no means a RWNJ.

    There are a number of people here who froth at the mouth about the Greens, so each and every one of them could be thinking of preferencing LNP ahead of Greens.

    To be honest I was actually thinking as much about Ryan as I was about PB. When I hear ALP activists praising the LNP candidate and at the same time slagging off the Greens my antennae get active. It is of course natural when the greens become rivals rather than handmaidens, that animosity grows, It is still irrational and emotional and hypocritical. Still human sadly.

    Seems I cannot win here. If I had named people I would have been roundly abused, but I get abused anyway by people who think I am accusing them.

    To be honest the reaction of you and Cat makes me think that I was closer to the mark that even I had thought.

    “Me thinks the ladies doth protest too much”

  43. Lizzie,
    I passed too. Some of those I know by instinct, from wide reading, rather than lessons from years ago. It just sounds correct. How much harder must it be for youngsters with fewer books under their belt!

  45. Paul Karp
    @Paul_Karp
    ·
    17m
    Penny Wong says the government should explain why it’s proposing to block Chelsea Manning coming to Oz. Compares to “the ease with which a couple of au pairs were let into the country”.
    #auspol

    #AuPairAffair

  46. Some men’s disrespect for women is unfathomable. (I think this was discussed last night.)

    Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP · 13h13 hours ago

    Gotta love the stupidity of these second rate coup types even trying to bully a former army general, a former big business group executive and a former News Corp lawyer…they were seriously stupid enough to think that because they were women it would work?

  47. Methinks I have a perfect right to try and flush out cowards.

    I’d rather defend myself when I don’t need to than allow a slur go by unchallenged.

  48. dtt

    As for this:

    ‘Now I speak as one with REAL experience in that matter. Should one of the majors fall below 28% primary it is possible – but very, very unlikely. Should a government slash ACT public servants then it is possible – but there is now a much larger private sector in the ACT so I guess it is even more unlikely.’

    The shorter version is: “I have no idea”.

  49. Lizzie
    “The low comprehension skills of some pollies are of great concern.”

    They know who gives them money. I think that is all they think they need to know. At this point I do not buy “not knowing” as an explanation of not acting on climate change.

Comments Page 1 of 28
1 2 … 28

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *