The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.
There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.
We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.
Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.
Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.
At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.
Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.
Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.
Boerwar @ #2348 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 8:00 pm
Ged Kearney is neither a male or a lawyer. Perhaps the electorate just chose the best available candidate.
Wait till they ask Friedburger’s head of department when he first heard about the reef foundation grant. I bet he’ll say it was after Malcolm’s meeting with his mates and then he immediately went out and got drunk. I bet he wasn’t told so he couldn’t tell Malcolm the idea was lunacy.
How can you spot a fake $50 note?
Hint: the real one doesn’t have Chinese characters on it:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-09/fake-canberra-cash-easy-to-spot/10094222
What do you think Leigh Sales would do when she interviewed Bill? Or any of the other cretins in the Parliamentary Press Gallery?
Well, if it was Alice Workman, she would ask Bill Shorten about Michaelia Cash’s accusations that ‘there are rumours in this place about the women who work in Bill Shorten’s office!’
My perception of the by-election campaign from media and what was posted here is that the Greens spent too much time trash talking Labor and not enough time talking to voters about their issues. I guess voters simply went with the candidate they felt would best represent their interests in parliament.
Confessions @ #2355 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 8:10 pm
What time is it? Adani
I need help with Centrelink? Adani
What about spending money on local schools? Adani………..
This was the Greens campaign in Batman. It’s not hard to see why people rejected the Greens candidate.
The ABC’s Tonightly has recreated how the $444m process works, or should work
https://mobile.twitter.com/tonightly/status/1027343704426606592/video/1
TPOF @7:51: that’s a good thought experiment. One drawback is that Conservatives approve of the Salvation Army. If the Turnbull Government gave $444 million to the Salvation Army for any worthy purpose, that would go through to the keeper.
How about Prime Minister Shorten giving $444 million to the ACTU to develop and fund a vocational / trades education campaign, all passed in the Budget? Or $444 million to the Australian Conservation Foundation to save the Reef.
Given the haunting similarity between the Bhathal and the Husar situation it is probable best if no one follows Nic our resident Green down the rabbit hole.
There has to be some serious payola for Turnbull from the GBR deal. He’s given away half a billion dollars and is only getting grief from everyone which was predictable. Half a billion should buy you quite a few votes but he’s actually managing to lose votes on it.
There is something really dodgy about it.
Interesting statement by Bhatahl. Apparently she was driven out due to actions of people within the party. But then she goes on to thank almost every Green person in existence, so it obviously wasn’t any of them.
Pegasus @ #2297 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 4:22 pm
I really object to the derogatory connotation attached to “perennial candidate” (and similar) in the media. Our system only works when there is a chance the incumbent will lose the next election. It was not until I was involved in politics that I realised the sacrifice that all serious candidates make to run for parliament.
DIOGENES – There is absolutely no mystery about any of this. This is how people operate at the big end of town. They all rub each other’s back and, whoopie, shoehorn each other into the best deals. Malcolm wants to be remembered when there is inside information floating about.
fredk
The similarities are amazing. Youngish, female, non Anglo surname, marginal seat, leaks, internal investigation and resigning with basically the same statement.
GG:
If the answer to every question put to the Greens isn’t ‘Adani’, then it’s ‘Asylum Seekers’.
sprocket_ @ #2357 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 8:15 pm
We watched that last night and I thought it easily surpassed the equivalent on The Weekly. And those legs! All of it brilliant! And on the topic of reefgate, for me the 2GB Frydenberg interview killer question was, wtte, “If it is the great idea you are saying, whose idea was it?” All F could manage was “the government’s”. After that it was relentlessly downhill. And at the end to be caught out by, “Have you visited the reef to see what the GBRF actually do?” F was ‘gorn’. (Spoiler, the answer was no.) My take away? Ask the right questions and insist on the right answer.
Honestly I think Turnbull didn’t think their was anything wrong with handing over 444m to the GBRF, given his background in banking and such he probably thinks he is superior at making judgement calls than any public servant pleb.
Diogenes @ #2360 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 8:18 pm
Could it be he is simply an entitled fool?
Dio
This GBRF Board Member, Stephen Fitzgerald, May give you a clue
“Stephen is Chairman and Founding Partner of Affirmative Investment Management, the world’s first dedicated green and impact bond fund management company.
Previously, Stephen was Chairman of Goldman Sachs, Australia and New Zealand, having joined the firm in 1992 and been named Partner in 2002.
Stephen is a member of the NSW Government Expert Advisory Panel on Social Impact Bonds, serves on the boards of QBE and PineBridge, and is a former member of the Board of Guardians of the Future Fund (Australia’s sovereign wealth fund). Since its inception in 2010, Stephen has also been a member of the Male Champions of Change.”
This Goldman Sachs stint overlaps nicely when Malcolm was sharing the boardroom with him, so possibly pals. And what a way to stitch up a rort and camouflage it as an environmental win.
This from Malcolm’s Wikipedia entry covering the same period –
‘Turnbull left the firm he co-founded in 1997 to become a managing director of Goldman Sachs Australia, eventually becoming a partner in Goldman Sachs and Co. Turnbull additionally worked as a director of Star Technology Systems from 1993 to 1995. During this time Turnbull was also the chairman of Axiom Forest Resources, which conducted logging in the Solomon Islands under the trading name Silvania Forest Products. The latter’s work was described by the Australian International Development Assistance Bureau as a “clear-felling operation”, and the then Solomon Islands Prime Minister Solomon Mamaloni reportedly threatened to close it down for “constant breaches of logging practices”, according to a critical article in the Solomon Times.[32][33]’
20 million for office administration is serious money when there is only 6 people in the office.
Has anyone yet noticed how the NSW power house goes about raising money.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-25/powerhouse-museum-uses-public-money-to-prop-up-fashion-party/10026264
GBRF is now in a position to smash that effort.
Diogenes @ #2360 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 8:18 pm
I’ve read elsewhere the decision was made on the day that Turnbull copped his 30 straight Newspoll losses.
This is only speculation, but maybe Turnbull was looking for a legacy announcement before he was chopped as Leader. Furthermore, it’s just the sort of Directors role sinecure that an ex-PM might sidle in to after his enormously successful political career ended. The rest of the Board are very blue blood Libs.
zoomster @ #2361 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 8:20 pm
😆 I love youse all! Except you, and you, and especially you!!
Those money-making types can sniff the latest barrel of pork on offer from a mile away!
GG
Like one of those “f$ck youse all” pardons that American Presidents hand out as they walk out the door.
Boy is Trumpie Boy going to be handing them out when his time comes.
Is there a link to the 2GB interview with Frydenberg? Google only brings up past stuff.
Liking this photo of a young BeetRooter which has surfaced, obviously in good company!
ReachTel in the field:
– Federal 1st pref.
– Half a dozen questions on asylum seeker policy.
– Age and gender.
Confessions @ #2374 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 8:32 pm
adrian posted this: https://www.2gb.com/ben-fordham-takes-environment-minister-to-task-over-mysterious-444-million-reef-grant/
Might still work.
C@t
I bet good money there are a few names conspicuously absent from the list.
Diogenes @ #2379 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 8:34 pm
Yes. Delightfully vague, wasn’t it? 🙂
Late Riser:
Many thanks! That still works, listening now.
Diogenes @ #2374 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 8:32 pm
Trump has stiffed everybody he’s met or had business and personal relationships. This includes family and friends. Some people might be banking on aPpresidential pardon. But, they are the ones that will be serving lifelong prison sentences.
Hi all
The Greens are as much a next of Vipers as any other party. The stakes are very high in politics: which party is in the ascendancy in Australia at both the state and federal level makes a big difference to the lives of many people, even if it is a slow difference.
This is why all of us who post here are so passionate, even if we disagree on some things. In every party, there is someone who believes in “Whatever it takes”. And to be honest, when it came to keeping JWH out of power, I think that was not a totally silly call. But with that sort of thinking comes narcissistic (or other) personality disorder, and all of its attendant dysfunction.
Then we have some who believe they re so great that they transcend politics – Malcolm Bligh Turnbull comes to mind (according to Brendan Nelson, not me)- who believe they are above politics, because they know the answer to everything (42 of course), and will join whichever political party will allow them the best opportunities to rise to the top.
Unfortunately, I might not like the other side in politics, but changes on about a 10-year timescale between different parties forces the rats to jump ship, and lets those who have done the policy hard yards to take the reins of government.
As Winston Churchill said, democracy is the least-worst system of government we have come up with. But, we should celebrate this, because Trump’s America is heading right back to the robber barons of the Middle Ages.
The World (those who had it) mostly gave up on democracy for the sake of ideological purity in the 1930s. And the left were just as responsible for this as the right. Social democracy was anathema to the left in the 1920s and 1930s – it prevented the revolution that everyone knew was going to come. Of course the right triumphed, and while history may not repeat itself, it rhymes.
GBRF: $20 million for office administration. Assuming $80,000 average staff member salary (most 70 or less with a coterie of executives) and using a factor of about 2.5 for full on costs (including super and other benefits, office accomodation, computers and other equipment, travel…) that’s about 100 full-time equivalents.
It will be locked in by the time Labor takes power. I wonder what other poison pills the Abbott-Turnbull Government will leave? Obviously NEG if they can get that through. A totally stuffed NBN. A shattered ABC and hollowed out public service with politicised management. Everything they’ve privatised…
Ducks are tough!
SkyFoxNews night time loons are melting down over the VicTrains ban, but there is more to the truth…
Melbourne Metro is not banning a news network. It is offering alternative advertising. @SkyNewsAust has declared today that it is provided to Melbourne commuters as an ad by advertising company @APNOutdoorAU. We’re talking about advertising, not journalism.
sprocket_ @ #2385 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 8:50 pm
Huh! I wondered how that worked and why SkyFoxNews might be shown rather than something else. So my thought, after a little Jacob’s Creek, is that the right to free speech is not the same as the right to be heard. No-one is stopping SkyFoxNews from saying what they want to say, it’s just that some of us don’t want to hear it any more.
Precisely my point. Incidentally I’ve been at pains to point out in the past that the Greens are no different than any other political party, but have been shouted down by Greens commenters for having done so.
But you’re right. In any organisation, be it political or otherwise, if your face doesn’t fit there will be an internal movement against you. It’s why it’s so challenging for cultural and linguistic minorities to succeed in mainstream organisations.
ReachTel in the field:
– Federal 1st pref.
– Half a dozen questions on asylum seeker policy.
– Age and gender.
___________________________
Got that tonight too.
sprocket_ @ #2386 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 8:50 pm
With sponsors and advertiser abandoning them en masse, they can see their on going employment disappearing before their eyes. the writing is on the wall.
The interview by Fordham on Frydenberg might be the first time the shock jock media world have addressed the broad community demand for balancde reporting.
Confessions @ #2387 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 8:56 pm
I read somewhere (long time ago) that one of the characteristics of any successful organisation is how quickly it removes people who ‘don’t fit’. By almost any metric you would have to say the Libs, Nats, ALP, and Greens would qualify as successful organisations. They key in my mind is the values that embed ‘fitness’ into your org.
Greensborough Growler @ #2390 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 7:00 pm
I don’t have access to Sky, but from what I hear all the night shift presenters are giving Trumble a hard time over #reefgate.
GG:
Do you really think that’s what Fordam was doing? It sounded to me as if 2GB have found an issue on which they can attack Turnbull and are going at it hammer and tongs.
Late Riser:
What distinguishes Labor and Liberal/National is the willingness to embrace diversity. On gender you’d have to say Labor is streets ahead.
Confessions @ #2393 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 9:07 pm
See what’s happening at Sky atm. Sponsors and advertisers are decamping en masse. The RWNJ paradigm has been disturbed by the one thing they understand. Money!
One point Fordham kept hammering was that the filthy lucre was dropped inexplicably in one dollop. And one thing Frydenberg slipped into the awkwardness was that they, the brilliant planet caring Govt., had ‘got’ the reef off the endangered list.
Was 444mill the price needed to buy off UNESCO? The money hit the Reef Fund at the end of June iirc, and the UNESCO meeting was early July.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-06/great-barrier-reef-avoids-in-danger-status-after-unesco-decision/8683970
I clearly need to take a break, but I’ve come across an idea that might pertain to politicians, specifically to the words they use. The idea is to use Lempel-Ziv compression to analyse the repetitiveness of what someone says. To put it as simply as I can, L-Z compression gives a single number that describes how much some text (or anything really) repeats itself. (L-Z compression is used to compress images.)
This article describes this idea applied to song lyrics. https://pudding.cool/2017/05/song-repetition/
The article analyses popular songs from 1960 until today and shows a steady trend to more repetition. The analysis also shows which artists are more repetitive. For example, song lyrics by Britney Spears are measurably more repetitive than those by Eminem.
I don’t have the resources to do this analysis on politicians and their speeches/interviews, but I’d really enjoy reading such a thing.
OK. Yeah. I need a break.
Late Riser @ #2397 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 9:29 pm
We should apply the same metric to PB posters. Although I can already guess which ones would come out as “most repetitive” 🙁
Confessions @ #2393 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 9:14 pm
And I’d have to agree. When you reject half the available talent on criteria based on their reproductive organs you naturally reduce your team’s talent quotient. Never mind the fairness aspect. Though it is not as grim as all that (for the organisation, that is). If you only need 100 top performers from a pool of 10 million, reducing that pool to 5 million is not necessarily such a catastrophic thing. When it becomes a problem might be if the pool gets reduced too small and you piss off those who are excluded.