The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.
There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.
We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.
Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.
Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.
At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.
Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.
Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.
The sun has gone down and the clowns on Sky are going apoplectic over the attack on Sky News.
Pegasus @ #2297 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 6:22 pm
Is this an admission of guilt?
Steve777 @ #2300 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 6:24 pm
Rules 3 and 4 don’t apply to the ALP as far as I know.
BK @ #2301 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 6:28 pm
Excellent! Best news I’ve heard all day 🙂
C@tmomma @ #2302 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 6:28 pm
Was Husar’s decision not to recontest?
I could link to an article stating the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, with no comment of my own, and Cat would somehow twist such a heinous action into whatever negative, abusive agenda she wants to push or whatever ott imaginative scenario she can come up with.
P1 @ 6.31
I might be wrong, but I thought C@t was being sarcastic/ironic.
TPOF @ #2307 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 6:35 pm
Oh. Maybe.
Player One @ #2305 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 6:31 pm
Exactly my point. I was just applying the standard that gets applied to Labor by The Greens’ supporters here, to one of their own.
TPOF @ #2307 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 6:35 pm
Exemplary? 😉
Pegasus @ #2306 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 6:33 pm
Come in spinner! What took you so long? 😀
C@tmomma @ #2309 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 6:41 pm
Yes, fair enough.
Rule 1 has sub-rules that can be used by most parties:
Rule 1.1 Deny everything
Rule 1.2 Distract
Rule 1.3 Point to mote in the other side’s eye
Rule 1.4 If rule 1.1 doesn’t work, repeat, only louder
Rule 1.5 Have media mates investigate allegators and attack them in their tabloid media outlets
Rule 1.6 Have the allegators smeared in the Australian over multiple weeks.
Rules 1.5 and 1.6 can only be used by right wing parties
Rule 3 has a sub-rule only available to right wing parties:
Rule 3.1. Arrange with media mates for mainstream media to ignore
Then there’s more rules, brought into play if 1, 2 and 3 don’t work:
Rule 3a. Say loudly it’s only an isolated instance of bad behaviour in an otherwise well-functioning organisation
Rule 3b. Identify a scapegoat
Modify rule 4 to expel scapegoat
Great work by Fordham. He did earn a Walkley a while back so he has some cred.
Perhaps the interview could be used in Journo training at the ABC. Perhaps in CPD training for some of the senior ‘journos’ and presenters like, oh I dunno, Leigh Sale?
Well I don’t think Josh will be adding that interview to his CV.
The difference between $44.38m and $443.8m? If you spent $1 per second (that’s $3600 per hour) $44.38m would last you almost 17 months. $443.8m would last you 14 years.
bc @ #2315 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 6:57 pm
I’ll trust your calc, and offer my thanks for something that might make the hard to understand hugeness of $444 million start to be comprehensible. Fourteen years is a long time to be able to spend $3,600 per hour. Still hard to comprehend.
Top of ABC TV news in Brisbane is Reefgate with the Myer guy.
ajm @ #2317 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 7:02 pm
Taking their cue from 2GB again? 😉
Alex Bhathal unloads on the Greens:
http://alexbhathal.com/2018/08/09/announcement-regarding-my-cooper-candidacy/
Dana Milbank takes Donald Trump to the woodshed over his ebullient, and hollow, declarations of victory:
Trump, down three touchdowns at halftime, declares victory
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/when-the-going-gets-rough-trump-declares-victory/2018/08/08/f0b4e95a-9b4a-11e8-8d5e-c6c594024954_story.html?utm_term=.2d38ed0ddc5b
More numbers:
A year is 31.5 million seconds.
In Australia, the traditional retirement age is about 2 billion seconds, also until recently the start of the age pension.
The Sydney Melbourne distance (or maybe Sydney – Geelong) is about a billion millimetres (by road)
Kudos to the Victorian government in banning SkyFoxNews from the train stations. Is this a signpost of a simmering backlash against Murdoch’s vision of a hate filled and divided world? Let’s hope a more substantial squeezing of Rupert’s, umm, revenue is on the agenda for the Shorten government.
And we aren’t the only ones suffering the yoke of NewsCorpse. This from the mayor of NYC.
“New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) is slamming conservative media mogul Rupert Murdoch and Fox News, saying that “we would be a more unified country” without their influence.
“If you could remove News Corp from the last 25 years of American history, we would be in an entirely different place,” de Blasio told The Guardian last week before he spoke at an event in New Orleans, adding that he believes Murdoch is responsible for President Trump’s election in 2016.
De Blasio said if it weren’t for Murdoch and Fox News, “we would not be suffering a lot of the negativity and divisiveness we’re going through right now.”
‘
http://thehill.com/homenews/media/400744-de-blasio-slams-murdoch-fox-news-we-would-be-a-more-unified-country-without
I didn’t see 7:30 the other night, but yes it seems the Fordham interview should be compared with it. Also other ABC interviews, like those on RN and AM.
I wish to thank the members of the Batman Federal Election Campaign Committee this year and last, Simon Jarman, Lola Neilley, Liam Ferguson, Dr Kip Gabriel, Michael Butler, Alicia Flynn, Paul Daly and Gavan McFadzean.
I wonder how many lawyers there are among that bunch? Nah, probably Knowledge Economy types and Academics. 🙂
Anyway, I don’t know what Alex Bhathal has against lawyers in federal parliament, um, legislating?
As long as there is a variety of professions there, it should be fine to have lawyers, white and non-white, male and female, there too.
Rule 5(?). Blame Labor/Shorten.
Rule 6. Set up inquiry to prove Labor/Shorten did it.
Rule 6.1. Ignore inquiry if it doesn’t give you the result requested.
@Shellbell
This is a particularly interesting case for me, as I know one of the expert witnesses. Anything more from me will probably get both William and me into trouble, and so I will await the outcome with interest.
Ben Fordham schmoozes in no particular order:
(a) Abbott;
(b) Latham;
(c) Richo;
(d) Tommy Robinson; and
(e) John Ibrahim.
He grew up at the knee of Stan Zemanek, the worst shock jock of them all.
When he beat up Frydenberg, his first thoughts would have been directed towards getting slaps on the back from Alan Jones, Ray and Abbott and whether the car yards and gambling dens (clubs) that sponsor him may throw him some more coin.
Shellbell you are in danger of spoiling the party 🙂
D&M
I was in a case in which Professor Cross was our witness. The jury didn’t like him much which was contrary to Wood’s case in which they must have accepted his theories about how the victim ended up at the bottom of the gap.
These theories were debunked in the Court of Criminal Appeal.
I’m quite happy for Fordham to eat Frytheplanet if it assists in removing this government.
None of the other beneficiaries listed by shellbell are in a position to form governemnt.
William Bowe @ #2418 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 5:05 pm
Goodness it sounds as if the Greens party is a nest of vipers! Aggression towards her as a candidate is one thing, but to direct that to her sons is quite another.
shellbell @ #2330 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 7:20 pm
Maybe. But, he seemed to be on point and channeling genuine outrage at this particular grant. he was indeed a dog with a bone in this particular interview. Frydenberg is carrying the can for this politically disastrous gambit by the Government atm. Eventually, Turnbull is going to have to front up and try to explain in words that will pass the “pub test”.
Fordham did his job today and did it well.
Whingeing about his connections and motivations misses the point completely.
Saw some discussion of Aboriginal place names in WA and thought I might add a tidbit about Adelaide place names for anyone interested in that kind of topic. Apparently the suffixes -illa and -ngga in Kaurna both stand for locations (“in the place of…”).
-illa is used for places with odd numbers of syllables (eg Cowandilla kauendi +illa) and -ngga for even numbers, not including the suffix (eg Noarlunga)
Greensborough Growler @ #2332 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 7:29 pm
Yes, in this particular instance he did the work of a journalist in a way that we rarely see in Australia.
He knew what he was talking about, did not put up with the usual bullshit non answers, and followed through.
Rowe:
The person at the back looking at Sky is Dutton. The person he is looking at is Cottrell. The latter apparently has a view that pictures of Hitler should be hung in every schoolroom. etc ad nauseam.
Sky has shut down the program (Giles as presenter?) which hosted Cottrell in a belated attempt at damage control.
The damage is serious: numerous coporates have cut their advertising connection with Sky as a result of the Cottrell interview.
Dutton has, naturally enough, publicly led the culture wars charge against the censorship of such lovelies as Cottrell.
Thanks Shellbell!
Funny, isn’t it?
The Big Kahuna political journos have virtually ignored Reefgate, leaving it to KK, bloggers, Environment Editors, Entertainment reporters and now even shock jocks, between them running a bewildering patchwork of agendas… some of them in direct opposition to each other.
It’s like a leaky roof. Eventually, if it rains hard enough, the rain seeps through. After a couple of days you feel a drop of water on your head. It’s finally seeped through the ceiling.. What you don’t realise at first is exactly how much needed to leak through from the rooftop to result in that single drop.
Just listened to Fordham. Why oh why could not all journos, all the time pull up pollies spouting bullshit like that ? Bravo Mr Fordham.Shame about the radio station though.
From the Bhathal announcement:
‘And yes, this really is why we have a parliament full of white, male lawyers.’
Actually, nearly half the Labor members are female.
Once again the Greens cannot help but misrepresent Labor and I mean seriously misrepresent Labor.
If this is the best she can do then I am glad that another Greens fibber has bitten the political dust.
Bushfire Bill @ #2340 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 7:38 pm
If the government is pissing in your pocket, it’s not raining!
Boerwar @ #2342 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 7:40 pm
As a mortgage broker that works the area Bhatal was allegedly trying to represent, I can assure PBers it is full of white male lawyers. Might explain her lack of local appeal.
If Giles has lost his presenter job and his Sky program as a result of hosting Cottrell (and introducing him to the program audience by addressing him as ‘mate’) then there are certain very satisfying schadenfreudean symmetries in the upshot of the event.
Here’s a thought experiment.
Let’s say there is a Labor government that decides to spend $444 million dollars on alleviating homelessness. The allocation is passed in the budget and Prime Minister Bill Shorten meets with the heads of the Salvation Army (which has a very good reputation in the area), hands the money over to them and asks them to determine how and where the money should be spent.
There is no review or analysis as to what the specific objectives of the spending are, how those objectives could be best met and how applications from organisations on the ground with expertise in dealing with homelessness could put forward proposals for grants.
The question of whether the money could have been better managed by another organisation, say St Vincent de Paul or the Brotherhood of St Laurence or the Smith Family, is not looked at and there is no tenders or even an invitation to other organisations to put forward proposals.
All that happens is that Bill Shorten, who says he knows some of the people involved and holds them in the highest regard, decides that the money should be given to them in one lump and what they do with the money reported back to government over a number of years.
What do you think Leigh Sales would do when she interviewed Bill? Or any of the other cretins in the Parliamentary Press Gallery?
I think the Myers guy did a brilliant job of shifting reefgate onto the agenda, and Malcolm’s defence was beyond pathetic: “Well, it was approved by cabinet and it was in the budget.” For God’s sakes. He’s gonna have to do a lot better than that, and he can’t.
Richo interviewed Tony Abbott last night and Abbott seems to have changed his tune on that $550 claim. He is now saying that Australians saved ten percent on their electricity bills after he scrapped the carbon tax, which for most people at that time would be nowhere near $550. Talk about wanting to rewrite history.
Well she was referring to parliament as a whole, not any specific party. I have no idea what the gender breakdown is for the whole of parliament, but that aside, her descriptions of how she was treated by the party do not paint a picture of the progressive, equality-driven party Greens often claim to be.
“For God’s sakes. He’s gonna have to do a lot better than that, and he can’t.’
AB, he has not needed to do better than that up to now.
Genius political experts like Sales think that’s good enough and no need to follow up with annoying questions like ‘Was the decision to give it to GBRF approved by Cabinet or only the expenditure? Was any work done to identify and define key objectives of the administration of the funds? Who decided that the GBRF was the best organisation to undertake this work without any consideration of other possible candidates, such as the CSIRO or the Australian Environment Department, which would normally be tasked with administering grants?’
I must say, I wonder whether Frydeplanet is starting to get the distinct feeling that he has been set up as the fall-guy and piñata for this little mind-bubble of Trumble’s.
C
Bhathal was lying like the Greens lie. All the time. Lib Lab same same. Parliament is NOT Full of white male lawyers for the precise reason that Labor’s female MPs give Bhathal’s words the lie.
ANTONBRUCKNER11 @ #2344 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 7:54 pm
All it needs now is for the polling to come in and someone in the Government benches to say they are genuinely concerned. Given the way Fordham went to town on Frydenberg today, it won’t be long.
@PeterPyke
These blokes are protesting to ban the burka…
I mean, really?
CC: @triplej @triplejHack @shalailah #auspol