Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. the Guardian in the UK and Australia is essentially a centre-right publication

    The Guardian has been running hard on the casualisation of the workforce in Australia and especially in the UK. Just today Poroti linked a very good article from the Guardian highlighting how the waning influence of Unions is hurting the middle class. And yesterday I linked to Grogs article that was highly critical of Turnbull. They have also been strong on tax minimisation as well as the failures of the big 4 auditors.

    And lets not forget about The Guardian journo shot by the CIA in a busy London train station for investigating black ops – even Jason Bourne couldnt save him.

  2. The AFP has confirmed it is now liaising with the CDPP as part of its investigation into the media being tipped off about the October 24 raids.

    The AFP is aiming to give material to the CDPP in the next two weeks. The CDPP will then determine if charges will be laid.

    “The AFP has commenced an investigation into the alleged unauthorised disclosure of information concerning recent search warrants executed in support of a Registered Organisations Commission investigation,” a spokesperson told BuzzFeed News.

    In May, BuzzFeed News published internal AFP documents that reveal police were investigating the offence of “unauthorised disclosure of government information”, which carries a maximum two-year jail term.

    Under Australian law: “A person who publishes or communicates, without lawful authority or excuse, any fact or document which came to his or her knowledge, or into his or her possession, by virtue of being/or having been a Commonwealth Officer, and which is not his or her duty to disclose, commits an offence.”

    “It is troubling, but not surprising, that the Australian Federal Police has decided to refer their investigation to the Commonwealth prosecutor,” AWU national secretary Daniel Walton told BuzzFeed News.

    “Clearly the AFP have learned enough here to believe it warrants the attention of the prosecutor.”

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/the-afp-has-referred-its-investigation-into-michaelia-cashs?utm_term=.bpJMbxOdr#.lqjjbaJ0g

  5. So that lovely bit of narrative setting from Shorten this morning seems to be working nicely.

    Tell Trumble he has to dump the Company Tax cuts and also tell him he’s a coward and a knave that stands for nothing if he does and so should resign.

    Obviously Trumble then has to double down on Corporate Tax cuts…

  6. Presumably we should assume the new Public Service Commissioner will better than his predecessor but given the history of Abbott and Turnbull government appointments…

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has named his chief of staff, career diplomat Peter Woolcott, to a top role in the public service in a move that clears the way for changes among the key advisers at the top of the government.

    Mr Turnbull announced on Monday afternoon that Mr Woolcott would become the Australian Public Service Commissioner, a $678,000 position that oversees thousands of government officials and their departments.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-reshapes-his-team-with-new-chief-of-staff-20180730-p4zuh0.html

  8. citizen @ #356 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 3:59 pm

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has named his chief of staff, career diplomat Peter Woolcott, to a top role in the public service in a move that clears the way for changes among the key advisers at the top of the government.

    Mr Turnbull announced on Monday afternoon that Mr Woolcott would become the Australian Public Service Commissioner, a $678,000 position that oversees thousands of government officials and their departments.

    Hmmm. Turnbull rewarding the faithful before he resigns, perhaps?

  9. Citizen and P1

    Woolcott is a career diplomat. It’s a surprising post for someone with his background to be appointed to, but he doesn’t have any of the baggage the previous incumbent has or some of the other appointments with culture and union wars warrior credentials.

    Time will tell, though.

  10. Greensborough Growler says: Monday, July 30, 2018 at 4:01 pm

    Here’s the most comprehensive review of the MSM performance in the Super Saturday by elections that I hyave read. It’s damned good!

    http://newpolitics.com.au/2018/07/30/media-fail-and-the-last-days-of-malcolm-turnbull/

    ***************************************************

    Great article Greensborough Growler – says everything that’s bad about the MSM media and the totally biased dishonesty that gets shoved down our throats on a daily basis from so called quality political reporting from so called unbiased political experts

    If you don’t follow MSM media you are UNinformed – if you do follow MSM you are MISinformed

  13. phoenixRED @ #360 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 4:14 pm

    Greensborough Growler says: Monday, July 30, 2018 at 4:01 pm

    Here’s the most comprehensive review of the MSM performance in the Super Saturday by elections that I hyave read. It’s damned good!

    http://newpolitics.com.au/2018/07/30/media-fail-and-the-last-days-of-malcolm-turnbull/

    ***************************************************

    Great article Greensborough Growler – says everything that’s bad about the MSM media and the totally biased dishonesty that gets shoved down our throats on a daily basis from so called quality political reporting from so called unbiased political experts

    If you don’t follow MSM media you are UNinformed – if you do follow MSM you are MISinformed

    Yes, great article.

  14. The Robert Mueller Rigged Witch Hunt, headed now by 17 (increased from 13, including an Obama White House lawyer) Angry Democrats, was started by a fraudulent Dossier, paid for by Crooked Hillary and the DNC. Therefore, the Witch Hunt is an illegal Scam!”

    Wonderfully constructed argument.

    “This Shitty Burger I had for lunch, now with extra pickles on it for some reason (I fucking HATE pickles), was cooked by some grubby teenager whose manager probably doesn’t even follow minium-wage laws. Therefore, the entire Shitty Burger is an illegal Scam!”

    “The sky is orange and it hurts when I pee. Therefore Matlock is on at 7:00 pm!”

    Wonderfully constructed arguments, one and all.

  16. Jokovich article had a cracker photo illustrating Truffles’ ‘How to Win Friends and Influence People” style.

  17. A quick edit………

    “If you don’t follow MSM media you are UNinformed – if you do follow MSM you are MiSinforMed.”

  22. Victoria @ #336 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 3:00 pm

    c@t

    if the AFP have referred the matter to the DPP, it would have to mean that their part of the investigation is over and they have submitted their findings to the DPP for their determination.

    Yeah, I figured that out when I was chopping up the chicken for dinner. So I win the Numpty of the Day Award. 😉

  24. The inability of many in the CPG to identify or call out the BS that comes from Turnbull is an asset to the ALP.

    He trots out the oh so clever ‘I didnt cut penalty rates, Shorten did!’ and the CPG nod ‘oh, yes, well, thats right Prime Minister, I see your point’. Then, encouraged, he uses it with anyone who cares to listen. And then he uses it with a pensioner in a club and gets body slammed into the astroturf by the electorate.

  25. WB,

    Your support button has fallen off my page for some reason. I’m about to put in my usual monthly contribution. So, can you fix?

    Cheers,

  26. Simon² Katich® @ #374 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 5:04 pm

    The inability of many in the CPG to identify or call out the BS that comes from Turnbull is an asset to the ALP.

    He trots out the oh so clever ‘I didnt cut penalty rates, Shorten did!’ and the CPG nod ‘oh, yes, well, thats right Prime Minister, I see your point’. Then, encouraged, he uses it with anyone who cares to listen. And then he uses it with a pensioner in a club and gets body slammed into the astroturf by the electorate.

    Glib Barrister rhetoric doesn’t cut it when you’ve lost your penalty rates and know who made that happen!

  28. The inability of many in the CPG to identify or call out the BS that comes from Turnbull

    Really shouldn’t be hard. Just watch for the lips to start moving.

  29. Thanks, GG, for the Eddy Jokovich piece. I didn’t know this:

    The goalposts kept on shifting during the byelection campaign – according to the media and depending on their vitriol of the day, Shorten’s leadership was all but over if: he lost one seat; if he lost two seats; or if he retained all seats; retained all seats with a slight swing; retained all seats with a swing but not enough of a swing; or he was just gone anyway because, in the words of ABC journalist, Laura Tingle, in her article ‘Voters just don’t like Bill’, a ‘pragmatist’ (whatever this is – perhaps a fortune teller?) told her “the mob want Malcolm and the government to be better than they are… but they just don’t like Bill”.

    No wonder she had a sour expression on her face on Saturday night! Her ‘pragmatic’ divinations proved to be not worth a pinch of snuff. 🙂

  31. a r says: Monday, July 30, 2018 at 4:35 pm

    “This Shitty Burger I had for lunch, now with extra pickles on it for some reason (I fucking HATE pickles), was cooked by some grubby teenager whose manager probably doesn’t even follow minium-wage laws. Therefore, the entire Shitty Burger is an illegal Scam!”

    ******************************************************

    You had a TrumpBurger ??????

  32. What would you think if you were a Coalition MP and you saw this set of numbers?

    Far from being an electoral asset the media keeps wanting us all to believe, Malcolm Turnbull, along with his right-wing agenda, is electoral poison. And there’s good evidence out there for this claim.

    He lost 15 seats and four Senators for the Liberal–National Party during the 2016 federal election. He hasn’t won a public poll in over two years – losing 130 consecutive polls. He suffered a 5 per cent swing against the Liberals in the Bennelong byelection in December 2017; failed to win back the seat of Mayo, a Liberal stronghold; failed to pick up the swinging seat of Braddon; and suffered a 4 per cent swing in Longman, previously a safe LNP seat. In this round of byelections, both seats of Mayo and Braddon were – according to the media and polling – a strong chance of being picked up by the LNP.

  34. The Rodent was over in NZ last weekend helping to improve relations 😆

    Acting Prime Minister Winston Peters has hit back at Australia’s former Prime Minister John Howard’s description of the New Zealand election outcome as “disappointing, unjust and unfair” by appearing to compare it to Russian interference in the US election.

    John Howard had made his comment in a show of sympathy to National Party supporters at the annual conference last weekend.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12098026

  35. “I certainly accept the economic case for company tax cuts but there are no votes in company tax cuts,” Mr Abbott said.”

    So, good old Tones is open about abandoning “good” policy in favor of votes?? Who’d a thunk it?? 🙂

  36. C@tmomma @ #380 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 2:31 pm

    What would you think if you were a Coalition MP and you saw this set of numbers?

    Far from being an electoral asset the media keeps wanting us all to believe, Malcolm Turnbull, along with his right-wing agenda, is electoral poison. And there’s good evidence out there for this claim.

    He lost 15 seats and four Senators for the Liberal–National Party during the 2016 federal election. He hasn’t won a public poll in over two years – losing 130 consecutive polls. He suffered a 5 per cent swing against the Liberals in the Bennelong byelection in December 2017; failed to win back the seat of Mayo, a Liberal stronghold; failed to pick up the swinging seat of Braddon; and suffered a 4 per cent swing in Longman, previously a safe LNP seat. In this round of byelections, both seats of Mayo and Braddon were – according to the media and polling – a strong chance of being picked up by the LNP.

    I’d think what the numbers were like before he took over and how he saved most of their sorry arses in 2016.

    Then I’d despair knowing that he was and is their best option as leader.

  37. Georgina Downer on the Drum (as the failed candidate)

    I think she should be on more often. The more one sees, the more one realises her capacity to plumb the depths of unimpressiveness.

  39. TPOF says: Monday, July 30, 2018 at 5:42 pm

    Georgina Downer on the Drum (as the failed candidate)

    I think she should be on more often. The more one sees, the more one realises her capacity to plumb the depths of unimpressiveness.

    ***********************************************************

    For me – she seems totally devoid of ANY personality and comes over as a vacuous air-head whose whole political existence and as a person is totally related to her SURNAME ……

  40. TPOF @ #387 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 5:42 pm

    Georgina Downer on the Drum (as the failed candidate)

    I think she should be on more often. The more one sees, the more realises her capacity to plumb the depths of unimpressiveness.

    My view is that she is being very brave in facing up to the grilling. Sure, she took a hammering on Saturday and I personally would never vote for her. But, she’s dusted herself down and turned up. Only last week Shorten was under even more scrutiny. Corbyn the same in UK. So, her persistence will likely get her kudos and work in her favour eventually.

  41. Greensborough Growler @ #375 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 5:04 pm

    WB,

    Your support button has fallen off my page for some reason. I’m about to put in my usual monthly contribution. So, can you fix?

    Cheers,

    I have had a play around with this.

    I clicked the X and removed the Powered by Press Patron link (together with all the support links).

    I then went to (Firefox) Options – Privacy and Security – Cookies and Site Data and clicked on clear data.

    You will have to log in again
    and
    at the top of the page the heading The Poll Bludger will appear.
    Click on this (The Poll Bludger) and the Supporter links should re-appear.

    I assume a similar routine would apply for Chrome.

    See you you go with this.
    Bon soir.

  42. KayJay @ #391 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 5:52 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #375 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 5:04 pm

    WB,

    Your support button has fallen off my page for some reason. I’m about to put in my usual monthly contribution. So, can you fix?

    Cheers,

    I have had a play around with this.

    I clicked the X and removed the Powered by Press Patron link (together with all the support links).

    I then went to (Firefox) Options – Privacy and Security – Cookies and Site Data and clicked on clear data.

    You will have to log in again
    and
    at the top of the page the heading The Poll Bludger will appear.
    Click on this (The Poll Bludger) and the Supporter links should re-appear.

    I assume a similar routine would apply for Chrome.

    See you you go with this.
    Bon soir.

    I’d rather turn it on and off again!

  43. Georgina Downer would be better off avoiding the media for a couple of months, no matter how much kudos one wants to give her for bravery.

  44. Greensborough Growler (AnonBlock)
    Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 5:56 pm
    Comment #392

    Silly me. I rather thought you would have already tried that although it didn’t work for me.

    Please forgive me for disturbing you.

    William will be only too pleased to help you.

  46. zoomster @ #393 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 6:07 pm

    Georgina Downer would be better off avoiding the media for a couple of months, no matter how much kudos one wants to give her for bravery.

    You’d know as well as anyone that success in politics is a lot about turning up and persisting through the good and bad times. She’s just using modern media outlets to be seen to be keeping on.

  47. KayJay @ #394 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 6:08 pm

    Greensborough Growler (AnonBlock)
    Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 5:56 pm
    Comment #392

    Silly me. I rather thought you would have already tried that although it didn’t work for me.

    Please forgive me for disturbing you.

    William will be only too pleased to help you.

    Cheers.

  48. “YouGov poll on where UK papers lie on the political spectrum”
    Crap. The Independent is a far more honest rag than the Guardian in the UK.

  49. zoomster says:
    Monday, July 30, 2018 at 6:07 pm
    Georgina Downer would be better off avoiding the media for a couple of months, no matter how much kudos one wants to give her for bravery.

    Maybe she needs the money after spending time away from work to campaign. She does seem to have been heavily influenced by her father to run in the seat (and to return for what is likely to be another hopeless try).

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