Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Clue to the MSM, as mentioned here and in Jokovich’s article, the problem isn’t that you reported off the record tips from ‘Labor insiders’, that they wouldn’t be happy with the leader if they were the first in 100 years to lose a seat to the government in a byelection.
    Its that, that is all you reported.

  2. GG

    Indeed. But judgement has a lot to do with it too – and there are times where being unavailable for comment is the wisest choice.

    Georgina really didn’t do herself many favours this evening, and there was no way that the interview was going to work out well for her.

  3. Poroti@4:38pm
    Photo speaks thousand words. After I saw that photo I started shaking my head involuntarly. The thing is MSM has all this evidemce about MT but pretend he is a political genius.
    I repeat MT has Midas touch in reverse. I want people to get that fact into their heads
    In the echo chamber of MSM and CPG, they really believed Shorten is toast.

  4. Your support button has fallen off my page for some reason. I’m about to put in my usual monthly contribution. So, can you fix?

    Now, there’s a tech complaint that’s guaranteed to get my attention. I’ll look into this.

  5. zoomster @ #403 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 6:19 pm

    GG

    Indeed. But judgement has a lot to do with it too – and there are times where being unavailable for comment is the wisest choice.

    Georgina really didn’t do herself many favours this evening, and there was no way that the interview was going to work out well for her.

    Her judgement is she is in it for the long haul. What has she got to lose tonight? Being visual, available after a personal political crisis and vowing to plough on is not a long term negative imho.

  6. Big business issues Turnbull with demands on business tax cuts and the NEG:

    Economic growth must not be sacrificed for political point scoring, business leaders have warned, as they increase pressure on the Turnbull government not to dump its signature company tax cuts in the wake of Saturday’s byelection results.

    Fearful Labor’s victories in Longman and Braddon could also spark a Labor-led state rebellion against the National Energy Guarantee, business has called for investment certainty to become the top priority as negotiations over the energy deal move into their final ten days.

    The twin debates over tax policy and energy are the focus of business interests in the lead up to the next federal election, as the Business Council of Australia and the Australian Chamber of Commerce of Industry pledge to campaign for company tax cuts to make Australia more competitive and deliver relief from soaring energy prices.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/don-t-retreat-at-the-first-gunshot-business-sends-tax-warning-to-the-coalition-20180730-p4zufj.html

  7. I’m going to post this with some trepidation as the potential for a flame war is significant.
    The Media Bias Fact Check site rates Australian media thusly

    LEFT BIAS These media sources are moderately to strongly biased toward liberal causes
    Green Left Weekly

    LEFT-CENTER BIAS These media sources have a slight to moderate liberal bias
    Independent Australia
    The Age
    The Monthly
    news.com.au
    The Guardian
    SMH
    SBS

    LEAST BIASED These sources have minimal bias
    ABC News

    RIGHT-CENTER BIAS These media sources are slightly to moderately conservative in bias
    Nine News
    Herald Sun
    West Australian
    Courier Mail
    The Australian

    RIGHT BIAS These media sources are moderately to strongly biased toward conservative causes
    Daily Telegraph
    The Advertiser

    https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/page/2/?s=australia&orderby=relevance&order=DESC

  8. GG

    We’ll have to agree to differ. Being faced with questions like “How did you get thrashed so badly?” leave you with no good answers. And voters really don’t give you points for bravery.

  9. Diogenes @ #410 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    I’m going to post this with some trepidation as the potential for a flame war is significant.
    The Media Bias Fact Check site rates Australian media thusly

    LEFT BIAS These media sources are moderately to strongly biased toward liberal causes
    Green Left Weekly

    LEFT-CENTER BIAS These media sources have a slight to moderate liberal bias
    Independent Australia
    The Age
    The Monthly
    news.com.au
    The Guardian
    SMH
    SBS

    LEAST BIASED These sources have minimal bias
    ABC News

    RIGHT-CENTER BIAS These media sources are slightly to moderately conservative in bias
    Nine News
    Herald Sun
    West Australian
    Courier Mail
    The Australian

    RIGHT BIAS These media sources are moderately to strongly biased toward conservative causes
    Daily Telegraph
    The Advertiser

    https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/page/2/?s=australia&orderby=relevance&order=DESC

    I find it outrageous that you can’t spell centre correctly!

  10. GG

    Zoomster @ 6.19 pretty much summed it up for me. For example, she wanted to make the point that the nastiness referred to by her Dad was specifically about a vicious trolling attack on her mother on Facebook. But she went on and on about it. And on.

    It is one thing to show courage in adversity. It is another to do a modern version of the black knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

  11. TPOF @ #414 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 6:32 pm

    GG

    Zoomster @ 6.19 pretty much summed it up for me. For example, she wanted to make the point that the nastiness referred to by her Dad was specifically about a vicious trolling attack on her mother on Facebook. But she went on and on about it. And on.

    It is one thing to show courage in adversity. It is another to do a modern version of the black knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

    Her father was often described as “the idiot son of the aristocracy”. Despite this impediment he went on to be Opposition leader and a long term foreign Minister for Australia. His culminating achievement for good may very well his being the intelligence source for the eventual demise of Donald Trump.

  12. news.com.au being listed as centre-left is interesting. I never go there but it really gets up Bolt’s nose so it must be doing something right.

  13. …as the Business Council of Australia and the Australian Chamber of Commerce of Industry pledge to campaign for company tax cuts to make Australia more competitive and deliver relief from soaring energy prices.

    I’m quite happy actually if Australia isn’t competitive in a race to the bottom on Company Tax.

  14. Malcolm Farr is the chief political writer for News.com.au and he is definitely Centre Left in his perspective.

    The list left out The West Australian as well, which I consider to be Centre Left in it’s political coverage, care of Shane Wright.

  15. shellbell
    I gather the search engine stuffed that one up. I found this on the front page of the North Korea Times
    “Trump celebrates largest U.S. economic growth in years”
    I’m guessing the public don’t get the North Korea Times in North Korea.

  16. C@tmomma @ #423 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 6:48 pm

    Malcolm Farr is the chief political writer for News.com.au and he is definitely Centre Left in his perspective.

    The list left out The West Australian as well, which I consider to be Centre Left in it’s political coverage, care of Shane Wright.

    He’s a bikie without tattoos.

  17. C@tmomma @ #423 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 6:48 pm

    The list left out The West Australian as well, which I consider to be Centre Left in it’s political coverage

    That noise you heard was massed Sandgropers spluttering into their coffee 🙂

  18. I look at News.com.au occasionally. I would say that it is reasonably balanced in its reporting. While it reports much of the same stuff as the Daily Telecrap, it leaves out the overt campaigning and slanted / loaded headlines. On what I’ve seen of it, I’d put it close to the Centre.

    I see the Sydney Morning Herald as generally balance with a centre-right editorial outlook. The Telegraph and Australian are firmly planted in the Right. The Gardian is Centre-left.

  19. Everything else about The Worst is pretty RW but they always seemed to choose political correspondents to report from Canberra that were a bit Left.

  20. Steve777 @ #430 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 7:11 pm

    I look at News.com.au occasionally. I would say that it is reasonably balanced in its reporting. While it reports much of the same stuff as the Daily Telecrap, it leaves out the overt campaigning and slanted / loaded headlines. On what I’ve seen of it, I’d put it close to the Centre.

    I see the Sydney Morning Herald as generally balance with a centre-right editorial outlook. The Telegraph and Australian are firmly planted in the Right. The Gardian is Centre-left.

    After the “Kill Bill” performance in recent weeks, I reckon they are all basic ferals. Middle class wannabees all wanting to be heard above the noise by saying the same thing. Yet, insisting they have something different to say.

  21. Kayjay
    I did not see your first page screeshots of various newspapers
    From what I saw ABC News breakfast, I did not see the Newspoll as Headline today, which they usually do when Newspoll is published. Are they bit ashamed to do it immediately after by-elections results?

  22. Dio, it doesn’t matter how good their methodology is if they’re squashing everything down to one dimension:


    L: left, R: right, P: progressive, C: conservative

    The red line is the single dimension everything is typically projected down to.

    See how people with quite different ideologies get projected onto the same point?

    a & b onto x, c & d onto y, e & f onto z

    What looks like “centre” in a one dimensional analysis may turn out to be not centre when you use an appropriate number of dimensions.

  23. Ah, Don Watson. Just one of the best wordsmiths commenting on politics today:

    The material benefits of Australia’s alliance with the United States are too many and too great to throw away – even on days when we cannot recall what they are. It is the bedrock of our security. Let’s concede this much to the people who design our foreign policy, and to the people gathered like woodlice in the think tanks, and the media commentators who comment on their thinking – the foreign policy elite. The US alliance is the first premise, the one unchanging thing, the fixed star.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2018/august/1533045600/don-watson/all-way-donald-j?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Friends%20of%20the%20Monthly%20%20August%20Issue&utm_content=Friends%20of%20the%20Monthly%20%20August%20Issue+CID_442dbbeb4a5b22d526d9cc9d7cee74d8&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=All%20the%20way%20with%20Donald%20J

    And, ‘poodly’ is a word I am definitely going to use again!

  24. Socrates:

    I think Cash needs to stand down from the ministry pending the outcome of this investigation. That after all is the standard that is often demanded by govt of shadows! Therefore goose-gander in my view.

  25. I see that Michaela Cash and that raid are back in the news. No doubt the timing, like that if the by-elections, is purely coincidental.

  26. Ven
    A special treat for you.

    I prefer to stay in bed lately. Mostly the Front Pages are like verbal agreements – not worth the paper they are written on (or something).

    ?d0

  27. Re the Daily Telegraph, does anyone know ‘the truth behind Rusty’s wacky beard’? He’s been taunting his Insta followers for months now with various photos and videos of him combing out, stroking and loving on that beard but with no explanations.

    #thebigissues

  28. Re KJ @7:33 PM: I see from the Australian front page that Rupert has given his orders to the PM.

    As for verbal agreements, they’re not worth the paper they’re not written on.

  29. “Re the Daily Telegraph, does anyone know ‘the truth behind Rusty’s wacky beard’?”

    After the recent takeover, the answer will probably take up most of the front page of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age in due course.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *