Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. This quote from someone who knows a crushing defeat when he sees one…

    .@CampbellNewman on Longman by-election: It’s a crushing defeat for the Coalition, and anybody who tries to spin it otherwise is exercising an act of self-delusion.

    MORE: bit.ly/2mBKHPU #pmlive

  2. Far more ‘accurate’ polls were held yesterday?

    Newspoll lost the plot when they changed ‘herbs n spices’.

    Never mind it might save any cats in Turnbull’s vicinity some grief.

  3. You idiots realise that the TPP for all of the byelection polls was within the margin or error, right? It’s not “Da Murdock” conspiracy.

  4. Dave,
    “Far more ‘accurate’ polls were held yesterday?”
    Yeah. The polls for Longman, including Newspoll’s 51-49 and others 49-51, 50-50, are basically the same as this evening’s Newspoll 51-49. We know now that the result was 54.5-45.5 (basically a re-run of Batman). It would appear then that Newspoll are understating Labor’s vote by about 3.5 points. They should just give up.

  5. PT

    “Da Murdock (sic)” conspiracy is not the poll numbers and MOE.

    It is how these numbers are used by Murdoch organs and their running dogs to frame the political narrative – eg “Shorten Crashes Back to Earth”. As if the NewsPoll was equivelant to approx 400,000 Australians placing real votes with real preferences on the weekend.

  6. (reposting for anyone vaguely interested)

    On Ketamine – and like all things, effects are dose dependent.

    Ketamine slipped into clinical use here in the 70s, mainly as a means of inducing anaesthesia (or varying degrees of consciousness) without intravenous access or resorting to gas (not a bad way to go, btw). So, good for bad burns, poor venous access, in the field, and little ones of course. It also had the added advantage of theoretically maintaining the airway because of an increase in muscle tone, not the usual decrease with induction, as well as keeping blood pressure up, not the usual fall, also associated with increased muscle tone and the maintenance of venous return.

    It was ‘covered’ by a benzodiazepine, valium on those days, to mask the unpleasant ‘dissociative state’ it induced – a disquieting feeling of still being in reality, but disconnected from it, and unable to make contact with it.

    I remember going to one of the Sunshine Homes and inducing little Down’s Syndrome lovelies (better patients you will never meet) with Ketamine and Valium intramuscularly for examination of the eyes (retinal problems best detected early).

    It’s other great property is analgesia without the respiratory depression of the narcotics, and therein is its major clinical niche today.

    It was a dance party thing, and maybe still is, with the moniker of ‘special K’, where being in the ‘zone’ – there but not here – was the desired effect, apparently.

    I’ve not heard of its use intranasally, but onset time would be quick, and effect titratable I would imagine, to a certain extent.

    Intravenous lines in an underwater rescue sounds like a stretch to me rhwombat. Just getting them in and secured, and then the worry about reliability, unless you had a central line, which in the cave would be all but impossible to safely insert, and secure. And then, who is giving what and when. I imagine there will be some publications, and presentations, when and where appropriate.

    But what a brilliant outcome and great tribute to all involved. Gob smacking really.

  7. sprocket_ @ #13 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 10:20 pm

    “Da Murdock (sic)” conspiracy is not the poll numbers and MOE.

    It is how these numbers are used by Murdoch organs and their running dogs to frame the political narrative – eg “Shorten Crashes Back to Earth”.

    Yes, it’s about passing off right-wing propaganda as if it’s legitimate news and analysis. Doesn’t require tampering with any polling results.

  8. The LNP primary vote in Longman is around the same level as they polled in Pumicestone in 2017. ON is down significantly and Labor is up a similar amount.

    The real factors in my opinion were the poor candidates for the LNP and ON both of whom had negative issues at crucial times.

  9. The bulk of the Newspoll responses would have come from before the byelections. We might have all sat up until 1 am to see the full wash-up but most people wouldn’t have.

    The media have sort of played down the byelection results … only small clips on news THIS evening (or the few who watched insiders and SKY today).

    I suspect it’ll take until next time around for a Newspoll effect, if anything is to pop … Essential might be more interesting though.

    Any turmoil in the Liberal Party that ensues will be more telling, and, from a layman’s point of view, more likely to have a sudden effect.

  10. Early reports tonight in MSM seem to indicate the Tories are taking yesterdays REAL polls far more seriously then the FEd Newspoll.

    But WINNERS are grinners and Tory losers can make their own arrangements.

    They have short of already – foreshadowing a totalling craven gutless back down on previously sacrosanct company tax cuts.

    Far worse is the real prospect voters have stopped listening and will vote in their own interests.

  11. Ha, good, goooood.

    Shorten is dragged back to earth by polls taken prior to the actual votes in 4 seats are counted.

    Desperation reeking from the smear merchants.

  12. ItzaDream,
    Dr Harris stated that the medication that he used for the Thai rescues only lasted 30min to an hour and so needed to be readministered by the divers taking the boys out, which he had to teach them to do. Successfully as it turned out. So what does that make you think he was using?

  13. ratsak @ #8 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 10:30 pm

    Ha, good, goooood.

    Shorten is dragged back to earth by polls taken prior to the actual votes in 4 seats are counted.

    Desperation reeking from the smear merchants.

    Yes, I thought on the day that the 51-49 poll came out finally favouring Labor that it conveniently maintained their credibility. Now it’s back to business as usual. Kill Bill.

  14. Well-noted, davidwh..

    The split in the Right is becoming more entrenched.

    There is a RW Lib vote and a RW Not-A-Lib vote. …an establishment and an anti-establishment chorus.

    Meanwhile, Palmer is preparing to further divide the Right constituency.

    This will seriously undermine the LNP…excellent

  15. *The real factors in my opinion were the poor candidates for the LNP and ON both of whom had negative issues at crucial times.*

    Issues not isolated to the by elections?

    Very little policy talent on the Tory front bench. Spivs a plenty, sleeve tugerrs, wide boys, water cooler heroes, motor mouths and above all compradors who would sell Granny for less than sixpence.

    Roll on election.

    Its that simple – or hide as the clock runs out.

    The more this mob point fingers and pontificate the more people reach for baseball bats.

    Chuck them out!

  16. To prove how fractured the RW vote is becoming, this week my life-long Liberal voting parents proudly proclaimed on facebook that they had just donated to Cory’s Australian Conservative Party.

  17. C@tmomma @ #22 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 10:31 pm

    ItzaDream,
    Dr Harris stated that the medication that he used for the Thai rescues only lasted 30min to an hour and so needed to be readministered by the divers taking the boys out, which he had to teach them to do. Successfully as it turned out. So what does that make you think he was using?

    I haven’t really read up on it c@t, but 30 mins sounds about the clinical life of intranasal Ketamine, so I would think it was it ; a top up would need a rapid onset – can’t be sitting around waiting for it to work – and get them through to the next ‘station’ in the exit chain. The alprazolam I imagine was given orally and with 4 – 5 hours effect, which would have covered the escape. I’m not convinced intravenous (K or Xanax) would have been practical, but readily stand to be corrected.

  18. Has anyone done an analysis of the prepoll votes in Longman or Braddon? We regularly hear stories about how PHON was supposed to be doing well in prepolls or there has been a swing late because of x, y z issue or ads. Generally when the prepolls are compared the evidence seems to be lacking as reality overtakes speculation.

  19. Newspoll is obviously inaccurate. It is failing to detect important shifts in sentiment/intention.

    Nah, it’s just that it’s the last dying fart of the old narrative. People outside of the by elections didn’t have a campaign and a vote to focus on. They just had every galah in the pet shop telling them Bill is toxic and was going to cost Labor seats and Albo’s comin baby and Malcolm’s a genius…

    That shit had an effect.

    The people who had to focus their minds said yah boo sucks to the narrative.

    And so now the narrative is dead.

    The sugar hit Trumble has got in the polls will die with it. Shit got real at about 8pm last night. Campbell Newman for once in his life is telling it true. Everyone in the Qld LNP will be shitting themselves after Longman and that is going to chance real things in the real world. And not in a good way for Brian.

  20. The 2PP result in Longman improved once the pre-poll votes came in but the improvement was on the back to disastrous polling on Saturday.

  21. By the way the NXT people in SA for the state election had similar cut out cardboard figures with Nick Xenophon. Looked ok as a prop but not much use when the wind blew.

  22. Briefly

    Newspoll is obviously inaccurate. It is failing to detect important shifts in sentiment/intention.

    __________________________________________

    Not necessarily. The question is what it is measuring. At this stage we can say with certainty that it is not measuring a full-blown election campaign. We now know from the 2016 general election and reinforced in these by-elections, which were turned into mini-elections by the genius PM, that Turnbull is absolutely crap at campaigning and Shorten is excellent.

    Labor has also held back on the goodies it is going to offer at the next election, which could have a serious impact as well. For the Coalition it is all about the branding, reinforced by a few ‘cheap’ gestures like locking up refugee families for five years on miserable hell-holes in order to remind people how good it is on keeping the hordes out. Labor is doing its branding as well, with schools and hospitals being front and centre for all its campaigns. But it is hard to believe it is not going to follow through with some big ticket promises in these areas, funded by reeling back tax benefits to the wealthiest and other Coalition give-aways.

  23. I just looked over at the WA by-elections on the ABC website. It occurred to me that the Coalition did a great disservice to its rusted-on supporters by not running a candidate.

    I wonder how many people did not turn out to vote because they were Liberal supporters who were not given an opportunity to run against someone so labelled on the ballot paper. And how they are going to feel when they get their fine notices for not voting when they couldn’t stomach voting for any other candidate. Or even those who did turn up and found themselves voting for one of the rabid right-wing parties because they had nothing else on offer and then were not struck dead by their doG for doing so.

    It’s not something I’ve thought about much before, but I think Labor is absolutely right in running candidates in every electorate, even running dead, just so their supporters can cast their compulsory ballots in their comfort zone.

  24. David wh. Just had a look at Lomgman prepolls. Leaving out North Lakes which was pretty small. Average vote for PHON was about 18% cf overall 16% ( and hence everywhere else close to about 14.5) so PHON voters were out early. LNP votes in all 3 down 10-12%. Swings to Lamb were Bribie Is 2.2, Caboolture 5.7 and Morayfield 1.3 – so average just over 3%.

    Apart from PHON voters getting out early, not that different to overall result?

  25. (Reposting from previous thread for anyone who’s interested)

    Just heard on the 3aw news that the Victorian government has referred a number of Liberal politicians to the Victorian police for investigation over the rorting of public monies during the 2014 election campaign. A bit of tit for tat for Matthew Guy, the opposition leader, who recently referred a number of Labor members to the police for alleged similar offences. What goes around comes around Mr Guy.

  26. Spence that’s interesting because when the count was around 50% LNP primary was 26.6% and it is now just under 30%. I assumed that improvement was due to Pre-polls and/or postals?

  27. TPOF – I can understand parties not wasting money on a one-off by-election in a safe seat of their opponents, but I agree in this very unusual case I think it was a tactical mistake not to run anyone in the two Perth seats. There was a “mini-election” feel with five by-elections on the same day and the Liberals just looked like the kid who took their bat and ball and went home.

    Labor ran in Mayo when they had zero chance of winning the seat. Possibly they saw it as increasing the chance of stopping the Liberals, which in a very tight contest may or may have been true. But I think the lesson is that if there is more than one by-election on the same day and you are a major player you just diminish the standing of your party/coalition in the public eye if you don’t contest them all.

  28. Darn

    I am very interested. Thanks
    I wasn’t sure if it was Matt Guy who referred the Labor MPs to Vic police in the first instance.
    Considering there was an ombudsman report earlier in the year that dealt with matter

  29. The results from the weekend show just how effective Labor is once elections are called. They have the best policies, the best attack lines, the best team on the ground, a huge war chest to spend on getting the message across and a very effective leader. Whatever people might say about Bill Shorten, when the whips are cracking he gets the job done, unlike Turnbull who manages to stuff up everything he touches.

    The Liberals thought they were very smart in forcing labor to these by-elections, but all they achieved was to give Labor the chance to road test its tactics and its armory and it blew them out of the water. Labor will be very confident now that it can do the same thing again when the general election is called.

  30. Victoria says:
    Sunday, July 29, 2018 at 11:37 pm
    Darn

    I am very interested. Thanks
    I wasn’t sure if it was Matt Guy who referred the Labor MPs to Vic police in the first instance.
    Considering there was an ombudsman report earlier in the year that dealt with matter

    Vic

    I’m not sure if it’s technically correct to say that Guy ‘referred’ the Labor members to the police, but he was at the fore front of continual demands from the Liberals that the police investigate the matter. In the end they really had no choice but to do so.

  31. Apparently Newspoll changed the way it allocated preferences a little while ago and that was the reason it drifted down.

    Makes you wonder about the One Notion preferences after the by-elections.

  32. I still think overall polls are overestimating One Nation vote. Highly doubt they will run in 151 seats. Also putting them on robo calls as an option will also overstate their vote because in a real election people will have other minor parties and independents to chose from.

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