Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. From their website

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    Wiser now??

  2. I told you Mr Smooth, Matty Cormann, would not let his donors, like Twiggy and Gina, down. He was straight back on the stump for the Corporate largesse today, and ABC News Breakfast dutifully complied:

    Asked whether the government would take the company tax cuts to the next election, Senator Cormann told ABC TV on Monday morning: “That is our position.”

    Senator Cormann made it clear he intended to continue negotiations with Senate crossbenchers in a bid to legislate the government policy after Parliament resumes on August 13.

    “This is all about what is in the best interest of working families around Australia,” he said.

    “The bigger businesses around Australia in many ways are most exposed to the pressures of global competition and they employ many millions of Australians directly.”

    “Weaker bigger businesses in Australia means less business for smaller and medium-sized businesses. It also means lower job security for the people that big business employ directly and lower job security for the many employees in the many small and medium-sized businesses who supply products and services to those bigger businesses.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ministers-hold-out-on-company-tax-cuts-as-abbott-warns-on-policy-20180730-p4zuer.html

    I mean, who are these mythical ‘working families’ that are jonesing for a corporate tax cut for businesses that overcompensate their executives and stash the rest in a post box in the Caymans!?!

    Oh, that’s right, those same executives and high wealth board members and share holders, and their families, who will benefit from the pork pulled away from the taxpayer. I mean, you’ve got to pay for a new yacht to impress Peter Costello at the boat races in Victoria at the end of the year, somehow!

    But he’s a creative thinker is Shorty Cormann (I mean, have you seen the legs/torso ratio of the guy!?! Maybe he needs to be able to afford one of those leg-lengthening operations or something? 😉 ). So now he has woven teh workers and small and medium businesses into his schpiel. Apparently, if Australia doesn’t join the race to the bottom for corporate tax rates, we’ll all be rooned! And a blight and pestilence will rain down upon the land as the Big Boyz at the fancypants end of town enact their wrath upon this land and take their bat and ball and go home to…well, I don’t know really because everything they rely on to make their massive profits, resources and a relatively wealthy population with a high disposable income, is here! And they’ve certainly been coining it off us in the recent past, WITH the tax rates as they are.

    Which can only lead to the obvious conclusion: they are greedy and want more.

    I guess expensive cigars for Matty don’t come cheap. And I guess he’s partial to a bottle of fine wine or two at an expensive restaurant as well. But he cares about the little guy, you know? No, really. 😉

  3. poroti @ #298 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 1:49 pm

    Won’t link. The Thought Broker blurb. I’m sure Bludgers will have a pithier description.

    “About us

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    Or, in other words, well-paid bullshit artists for hire.

  4. Matty knows that if he caves on tax cuts he won’t get any cushy directorships when he jumps seats in the near future. Gina doesn’t like tax-loving girlie-men.

  5. Even when he is supposedly making a joke at Turnbull’s expense, Zanetti is completely unfunny and worse, unoriginal.

  6. C@tmomma @ #8305 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 1:57 pm

    poroti @ #298 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 1:49 pm

    Won’t link. The Thought Broker blurb. I’m sure Bludgers will have a pithier description.

    “About us

    Thought Broker is a publicity and communications company specialising in complex ideas and policy. Our connections with influential commentators, think tanks, publishers, academics, authors, policy makers & the media get your message out.

    Our expertise lies in identifying newsworthy angles for business and intellectual content and presenting these in an engaging and accessible manner to new audiences.

    Or, in other words, well-paid bullshit artists for hire.

    Well, wee Georgie is a little indisposed at present.

  7. I’ve long considered making a contribution to the Guardian to support quality journalism, and every time I get close, Spud Murphy comes out with a “gem” of a story that brings me to my senses and keeps my credit card in my pocket. I’d like to expand on that.

    Murphy defended her non reporting of the Barnaby Joyce affair on the basis that she could not at the time find sufficient evidence to support publication of the story. Subsequent to that, she has defended her numerous Labor Leadershit articles on the basis that Labor insiders are bringing her these stories. For these purposes of this post, I’ll accept those explanations on face value.

    I would like to know, in the five or so years that Murphy has been writing more or less the same Labor Leadershit stories how it could not have occurred to her, when approached by a Labor “insider” with such claims, to not publish verbatim their claims on the basis that in the FIVE YEARS they’ve been bringing her these claims that not a single one of these alleged events has ever come anywhere near fruition.

    It would seem that when it comes to Bill Shorten she is neglecting to apply the same journalistic integrity that she claimed prevented her from publishing stories about Barnaby Joyce.

    Moving on to five years’ worth of Kill Bill and three years of swooning over Malcolm Turnbull.

    Murphy appears unable to comprehend how it is that Shorten keeps notching up success after success, declaring him to be lucky on each such occasion he enjoys such success. Has it never occurred to her that it simply isn’t possible for a person holding the position of Leader of the Opposition to be “lucky” day in and day out for FIVE YEARS?

    I think there just might be story or two in not only how it is that the Leader of the Opposition has kept his job for five years, but in how he’s managed to see off one Prime Minister, pushed a first term Government to the brink of defeat and has lead a once extremely popular PM in the best part of 100 major opinion polls since the last election.

    When it comes to Trumble on the other hand, she can’t comprehend why he keeps getting struck by whatever calamity befalls him with increasing frequency. Something tells me there is another story or two in examining why these things keep happening to Trumble, and why they are not going to stop happening.

    Until the gormless and credulous Murphy manages to extract herself from CPG groupthink and starts regularly writing stories that I can’t get elsewhere, or is replaced by someone who can, I won’t be contributing to the Guardian.

  8. Michael Wilde‏ @WestgarthEnt · 28s28 seconds ago

     More

    Replying to @KKeneally

    The Liberal Party recently ran another scam. This time against filmmakers. They said they were putting $140 mil aside per year in funding to entice overseas productions to film in Oz. Trouble is, it’s NOT funding, but a tax incentive filmmakers already have,

  9. Simon² Katich® @ #279 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 1:14 pm

    On Qanda tonight.. Parnell Palme McGuinness
    Q&A is dumbing down the viewers and oversimplifying the debate. This cannot be the role of the taxpayer-funded broadcaster. Time for it to be scrapped.

    Yeah, by my count the line-up for tonight has:

    Left
    Jim Chalmers – Labor person
    Lenore Taylor – Guardian editor

    Right
    Mitch Fifield – Coalition person
    Parnell Palme McGuinness – Too many names person, writes for the Telegraph, will inevitably compare Labor’s policies to Communist Russia; Murdoch propagandist, basically
    Tony Winwood – Hard to tell, but based on age, location, and background I’m calling this either a PHON crazy or hardcore neo-lib

    Center
    (are you joking?)

    The left-wing voices will be outnumbered 3 to 2. Or 4 to 2 if you count the moderator. There’s no one available to represent the middle-ground opinion.

    The show has really been going downhill ever since they transferred its management after the whole Zaky Mallah thing.

  10. Alice Workman‏Verified account @workmanalice · 6m6 minutes ago

    The AFP will be at Legal & Con #estimates in Canberra on Friday at 9am.

    Hopefully they’ll be able to shed some light about when the AWU raid leak investigation will be completed.

  11. Grimace ,

    Murphy is paid for the quantity of her output and not the quality. So, as long as she can verify that a “Leadership” story emerged from legitimate “sources” then she can fulfill her remit.

    Murphy, I understand was an apprentice to Michelle Grattan who has written the same, “Bill Shorten has questions to answer” story for years. This has seen her through the Leadership contest of the ALP, the TURC Royal Commission, various minor misspeakings and of course this latest by election cycle of commentary.

    So Murphy has learnt well from her mentor and will continue to churn out the same disingenuous drivel for as long as The Guardian is prepared to pay for it.

  12. Ratsak – Yep, giving the Countess another go-round in Mayo is the only smart thing the libs have done in a while. Limit the infection to a part of the body you are going to lose anyway.

  13. Much to my surprise, the CPG has not bought the Government line about these results being typical by-elections. But interestingly, they have all embarked on the same new direction in CPG groupthink. Now its Trumble on the ropes, etc. Apart from Trumble’s bad judgement in grossly over-egging expectations, there is little basis, it seems to me, for the dramatic turnabout in CPG thinking in the new Trumble is gorn direction.

    New target, same old CPG. No doubt in a few weeks time the compass will be repaired and Kill Bill will be back again on all the news broadcasts. Sigh.

  14. While staying mum on whether he would bring the tax cuts to the next federal election, Mr Turnbull confirmed that the Coalition would attempt to secure their passage during the spring session of parliament.

    “We are committed to ensuring that Australia has a competitive company tax rate,” he said.

    Yep. Gotta keep up with the Trumps wrt fattening the bank balance.

  15. lizzie

    Alice Workman tweet is confusing.
    if the matter has been referred to the DPP, it would mean that the AFP have completed their investigation.

  16. TPOF – The CPG is like a herd of cattle. Every so often there is a crack of lightning overhead and they stampeded over some poor unfortunate. Then nobody can quite work out why.

  17. victoria

    Maybe she means when someone (?) is finally charged with something – or the whole thing is buried. I think we can be assured that Cash will emerge blameless. 🙁

  18. lizzie

    the AFP have referred it to the DPP to determine whether charges ought to be laid or not. The DPP will evaluate the evidence and make a determination. What it has done, is once again delay the AWU case. Will justice ever be served? Time will tell. You would like to believe that the DPP is not a politicised entity.
    We shall see.

  19. According to the article, the AFP want another 6 weeks for their investigation before they agree to hand over documents to the AWU.

  20. I think Murphy serves as click-bait for The Guardian, as she often attracts thousands of mainly irate comments.
    Even though it’s negative, it’s all attention and eyeballs, which is really all they’re after.

  21. c@t

    if the AFP have referred the matter to the DPP, it would have to mean that their part of the investigation is over and they have submitted their findings to the DPP for their determination.

  22. Rowan Retweeted

    Daniel Walton

    @DanWaltonAWU
    57m57 minutes ago
    More
    After 277 days it comes as no surprise that the AFP have enough evidence to refer their #awuraids investigation to the Commonwealth DPP. At some point the public will know the full extent of this abuse of power. #auspol #AusUnions

  23. and you gotta wonder at the timing of the AFP referring the matter to the DPP today. conveniently after the by elections are over.

  24. “Until the gormless and credulous Murphy manages to extract herself from CPG groupthink and starts regularly writing stories that I can’t get elsewhere, or is replaced by someone who can, I won’t be contributing to the Guardian”
    Agree. Karp doesn’t do anything for me either. Mind you, the Guardian in the UK and Australia is essentially a centre-right publication, whereas the rest of the media is simply right-wing to fascist.

  25. Truffles determined to follow the lemmings off the cliff..
    “We are committed to ensuring that Australia has a competitive company tax rate”
    Competitive structural deficit more like .

    It’s as shallow as Cormans argument about keeping business in Australia, as if the Banks can shut up shop & leave the country. They are stuck with us & we with them

  26. But interestingly, they have all embarked on the same new direction in CPG groupthink. Now its Trumble on the ropes, etc. Apart from Trumble’s bad judgement in grossly over-egging expectations, there is little basis, it seems to me, for the dramatic turnabout in CPG thinking in the new Trumble is gorn direction.

    Why do you think I was able to predict this is exactly what would happen a week ago? Yes the media in the large is biased to the right (poor people don’t own newspapers, journalists aren’t on below median wage). But by far the easiest explanation for their behaviour is laziness.

    The Trubble for Trumble narrative was handed to them by Trumble himself. Can’t ask for better than that as a journo. No need to think. Just follow the herd.

    Of course the narrative shouldn’t really be about the by elections having brought Trumble low. But equally the narrative should never have been about Shorten in trouble for the last three months. Without the bullshit Kill Bill narrative the real story of how shit this government really is and how 36 Newspolls just reflects that fact would have been told. Trumble thought he could game the narrative to change reality, but reality blew that delusion up. He can hardly complain that the laziness of the media he had tried to use for his own benefit is now eating him alive when reality destroyed the old narrative and left the easiest narrative to cling to the very one he created.

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