Super Saturday live

Live coverage of the counting for the Super Saturday by-elections (especially Braddon and Longman).

9.31pm. So much for the last entry. Patrick Gorman’s projected two-party vote is now 61.6%.

9.18pm. It’s only based on 1000 votes from Leederville and Northbridge, and suburbs further out might tell a different story, but the first two-party results in Perth suggest Patrick Gorman is headed for a fairly modest winning over the Greens. Conversely, Josh Wilson is outpolling the Greens two to one in Fremantle.

9.00pm. The Devonport PPVC result is also nothing special for the Liberals, so the door has closed on them in Braddon now.

8.55pm. First figures from Perth don’t bear out ReachTEL’s indication of a strong Liberal Democrats result, with more of the homeless Liberal vote going to independent Paul Collins.

8.53pm. Labor think they have Braddon in the bag, and the Burnie PPVC result that has just come through might explain why: the Liberals have copped an 8.7% hit on the primary vote there. Only Devonport and Queenstown PPVCs, plus postals, yet to come.

8.20pm. Labor still tracking for a winning margin approaching 5% in Longman.

8.13pm. The first PPVC in from Braddon is Ulvertstone, which has only 513 votes. It’s indeed a bit better for the Liberals than polling day votes, with their primary vote down by 2.1%, compared with 6.6% overall – although that’s still less than what they need.

8.10pm. So there has been no swing at all out of the polling day booths in Braddon, which have produced around 47,000 votes. That means the Liberals need to conjure a swing of around 7.5% out of probably 10,000 pre-polls and 7000 postals. Which doesn’t seem terribly likely.

8.02pm. Only the PPVCs to come from Braddon now. Polls have closed in Perth and Fremantle.

7.52pm. The projected Labor margin in Braddon is down to 2.0%. Two more polling day booths to report in Braddon, plus the four pre-poll voting centres, which could yet disgorge many thousands of votes. However, it seems to be agreed that it’s time to pull the plug on the LNP in Longman, and Georgina Downer is conceding defeat in Mayo.

7.40pm. A bit of dispute on the ABC as to whether the LNP is getting 70% or 60% of One Nation preferences in Longman. They will need for it to be very high indeed, and for something highly dramatic to happen in the pre-poll voting centres.

7.38pm. A very quick count in Braddon, where the momentum against Labor is levelling off. The AEC now projects a 2.6% Labor margin, but the potential for a different dynamic from the pre-poll voting centres means a measure of caution is still advised.

7.25pm. I’ve now got primary vote swings of 8.6% against Labor and 6.7% against Liberal in Braddon, with Craig Garland now barely into double figures. Labor’s projected two-party is continuing its slow decline, now at 2.2%. Given the trend as larger booths come in, and the unknown factor of the large pre-poll voting centres that will come in later in the evening, I wouldn’t be ready to call this.

7.24pm. We’ve now gone from around 7000 to around 14,000 primary votes counted in Longman, and the earlier trend is continuing: Labor holding steady, Liberal down around 14%, One Nation on around 15%. So looking like a surprisingly solid Labor win. No surprises in Mayo.

7.18pm. The situation is still a little elusive in Braddon: two-party projections point to a Labor win, but the primary count is well ahead of it, and the Labor primary vote there is beginning to sag. Bit of a lull in Longman counting, but the early indications are extremely strong for Labor.

7.12pm. Picture beginning to change in Braddon as larger centres do less well for Craig Garland. The ABC now has the Labor swing at 2.7%, which is down from over 4% earlier. The AEC computer is calling it for Labor, but given that trend, this should be treated with caution at the moment.

7.10pm. Count progressing a little quick than I’d figure in Longman, and here too Labor are doing quite a bit better than expected, holding their own on the primary vote while One Nation gouges double figures out of the LNP.

7.02pm. There are some reasonably serious primary vote numbers in now from Braddon, and that earlier picture is still holding: Craig Garland is on 16.3%, and Liberal are down more than Labor. The first two-party results suggest this is converting into a two-party swing to Labor.

6.50pm. Still only 1591 votes counted, but the early dynamic in Braddon is that Craig Garland is doing very strongly, coming in at the high teens, and he’s gouging the Liberals twice as heavily as Labor. If this kept up, Labor would win pretty handily on preferences from 35% of the primary vote.

6.40pm. The first two small booths in from Braddon are Moorleah (183 votes), where Craig Garland has a fairly spectacular 26.8%, and Waratah (139 votes), where he has a rather more modest 10.8%. For the time being though, he’s gouging double figures out of both major parties’ primary votes.

6pm. Polls have closed in Braddon and Longman, and will do so in half an hour in Mayo, and two hours in Perth and Adelaide. Results for small booths in Braddon should start coming in very shortly, but it will have to wait an hour or so for anything meaningful from Longman. For my own benefit more than anything, I have mocked up summarised booth results for Braddon and Longman which will, when there’s actual data to plug into them, will show booth-level primary vote totals, percentages and swings for the Labor, Liberal(-National), Greens, One Nation and Craig Garland (both the latter two are identified, wrongly, as “IND”). Other than that, the AEC publishes its own perfectly good booth-matched projected results (though not nearly enough besides), which can naturally be found at the official results page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

693 comments on “Super Saturday live”

  1. Late Riser @ #294 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 6:18 pm

    Trent Zimmerman. I had never heard of him before tonight, but I am not impressed with his performance tonight. I wonder how he got the short straw?

    He is one of the more sane Liberals. And as I said earlier, thank goodness the ABC went with him as the Lib spokesperson considering the waves of crazy in the partyroom they had their choice of.

  2. [A shocking, devastating loss for the Canberra Press Gallery]
    Fret not. I am sure that tomorrow they will us how they got it completely right all along.

  3. Does the margin of error between the aggregate seat polling and the eventual vote in Longman suggest that the federal polling has been too favourable to the libs?

  4. Trent Zimmerman is a liberal “Liberal” by all accounts, but he is still a cypher for an ugly right wing Government. He is also one of two in the Parliamentary “Liberal” party who is openly gay, but he still voted for the absurd postal plebiscite to give the ugly right a chance to defeat marriage equality.

  5. Trent Zimmerman. I had never heard of him before tonight, but I am not impressed with his performance tonight.

    I thought he was the most reasonable Tory I’ve ever seen on one of these election panels. Shrug.

  6. I don’t recall anyone in the media mentioning the sophomore effect for candidates. Unless a candidate is a dud, or they’re on the wrong side of a landslide, wouldn’t they normally be expected to increase their vote if they’re a sophomore.

  7. Does the margin of error between the aggregate seat polling and the eventual vote in Longman suggest that the federal polling has been too favourable to the libs?

    Maybe.
    What I still want to know is whether the pollsters have factored in the surge in enrolments from younger voters post “plebiscite”.

  8. So we have 48-52 and 46-54 instead of a double 53-47 or 49-51… single seat polling once again not worth the paper it’s printed on. At least Newspoll got the result right, if not the margin.

  9. Or another interpretation is that the federal polling contains a good deal of inertia (voters opting for the status quo). But when forced to select in a polling station, they pull the trigger.

  10. The MSM have backed Turnbull to the ultimate.

    Tonight confirms he is a loser.

    It isn’t going to be pretty from herein to the next election.

  11. All booths except the Pre Poll Voting Centres are now in in Braddon. How these hold up is the big question. Plus Garlands preferences may turn out to be different to the AEC estimate.

  12. Yes Barrie – at least you admit it.

    Barrie Cassidy

    Verified account

    @barriecassidy

    The media (yes that’s me too) spent 90pc of its pre poll analysis predicated on labor losing at least one seat. What a waste of your time.

  13. It also just shows that preferred PM numbers are just exercises in vanity and not psephology. A long known fact.

    The press gallery have refused to take stock of the 30+ Newspoll losses for Turnbull, so they are visibly shocked.

    ABC not this shell shocked since Bennelong in 2007.

  14. How smart was it to run an almost 3 month by-election campaign?

    Shades of Malcolm’s DD election that came back to bite him in the backside.

  15. Braddon will be tight, but it seems there aren’t enough postals to turn the vote around. At this stage Garland preferences are known well enough to project them.

  16. Caluminous – but surely AGGREGATE seat polling must have some validity (and that we well off in at least Longman). Does that suggest the national polling is also off?

  17. Georgina Downer concession speech gracious, humble and erudite. Expect to see more of her. Better than most speeches you get in these circumstances.

  18. adrian @ #325 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 5:33 pm

    Yes Barrie – at least you admit it.

    Barrie Cassidy

    Verified account

    @barriecassidy

    The media (yes that’s me too) spent 90pc of its pre poll analysis predicated on labor losing at least one seat. What a waste of your time.

    CPG predicted the outcome they wanted and they got it wrong, Again.

    But they rarely get anything correct and for the above reason, ie they report the outcomes
    they want.

  19. A lot of LNP (our great ™) MPs will be looking at those primaries and be very concerned.

    Cue Downfall and reaching to open the bottom drawer.

  20. Jennet looks like a man who made a large bet on the wrong side.

    My contemporary take was that he (Jennet) looked as if he was being informed that he had testicular cancer, but not to worry.

  21. [Telling people that Georgina Downer WILL one day be your local Member of parliament is a bit presumptuous and arrogant.]

    Totally galling.

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