Super Saturday live

Live coverage of the counting for the Super Saturday by-elections (especially Braddon and Longman).

9.31pm. So much for the last entry. Patrick Gorman’s projected two-party vote is now 61.6%.

9.18pm. It’s only based on 1000 votes from Leederville and Northbridge, and suburbs further out might tell a different story, but the first two-party results in Perth suggest Patrick Gorman is headed for a fairly modest winning over the Greens. Conversely, Josh Wilson is outpolling the Greens two to one in Fremantle.

9.00pm. The Devonport PPVC result is also nothing special for the Liberals, so the door has closed on them in Braddon now.

8.55pm. First figures from Perth don’t bear out ReachTEL’s indication of a strong Liberal Democrats result, with more of the homeless Liberal vote going to independent Paul Collins.

8.53pm. Labor think they have Braddon in the bag, and the Burnie PPVC result that has just come through might explain why: the Liberals have copped an 8.7% hit on the primary vote there. Only Devonport and Queenstown PPVCs, plus postals, yet to come.

8.20pm. Labor still tracking for a winning margin approaching 5% in Longman.

8.13pm. The first PPVC in from Braddon is Ulvertstone, which has only 513 votes. It’s indeed a bit better for the Liberals than polling day votes, with their primary vote down by 2.1%, compared with 6.6% overall – although that’s still less than what they need.

8.10pm. So there has been no swing at all out of the polling day booths in Braddon, which have produced around 47,000 votes. That means the Liberals need to conjure a swing of around 7.5% out of probably 10,000 pre-polls and 7000 postals. Which doesn’t seem terribly likely.

8.02pm. Only the PPVCs to come from Braddon now. Polls have closed in Perth and Fremantle.

7.52pm. The projected Labor margin in Braddon is down to 2.0%. Two more polling day booths to report in Braddon, plus the four pre-poll voting centres, which could yet disgorge many thousands of votes. However, it seems to be agreed that it’s time to pull the plug on the LNP in Longman, and Georgina Downer is conceding defeat in Mayo.

7.40pm. A bit of dispute on the ABC as to whether the LNP is getting 70% or 60% of One Nation preferences in Longman. They will need for it to be very high indeed, and for something highly dramatic to happen in the pre-poll voting centres.

7.38pm. A very quick count in Braddon, where the momentum against Labor is levelling off. The AEC now projects a 2.6% Labor margin, but the potential for a different dynamic from the pre-poll voting centres means a measure of caution is still advised.

7.25pm. I’ve now got primary vote swings of 8.6% against Labor and 6.7% against Liberal in Braddon, with Craig Garland now barely into double figures. Labor’s projected two-party is continuing its slow decline, now at 2.2%. Given the trend as larger booths come in, and the unknown factor of the large pre-poll voting centres that will come in later in the evening, I wouldn’t be ready to call this.

7.24pm. We’ve now gone from around 7000 to around 14,000 primary votes counted in Longman, and the earlier trend is continuing: Labor holding steady, Liberal down around 14%, One Nation on around 15%. So looking like a surprisingly solid Labor win. No surprises in Mayo.

7.18pm. The situation is still a little elusive in Braddon: two-party projections point to a Labor win, but the primary count is well ahead of it, and the Labor primary vote there is beginning to sag. Bit of a lull in Longman counting, but the early indications are extremely strong for Labor.

7.12pm. Picture beginning to change in Braddon as larger centres do less well for Craig Garland. The ABC now has the Labor swing at 2.7%, which is down from over 4% earlier. The AEC computer is calling it for Labor, but given that trend, this should be treated with caution at the moment.

7.10pm. Count progressing a little quick than I’d figure in Longman, and here too Labor are doing quite a bit better than expected, holding their own on the primary vote while One Nation gouges double figures out of the LNP.

7.02pm. There are some reasonably serious primary vote numbers in now from Braddon, and that earlier picture is still holding: Craig Garland is on 16.3%, and Liberal are down more than Labor. The first two-party results suggest this is converting into a two-party swing to Labor.

6.50pm. Still only 1591 votes counted, but the early dynamic in Braddon is that Craig Garland is doing very strongly, coming in at the high teens, and he’s gouging the Liberals twice as heavily as Labor. If this kept up, Labor would win pretty handily on preferences from 35% of the primary vote.

6.40pm. The first two small booths in from Braddon are Moorleah (183 votes), where Craig Garland has a fairly spectacular 26.8%, and Waratah (139 votes), where he has a rather more modest 10.8%. For the time being though, he’s gouging double figures out of both major parties’ primary votes.

6pm. Polls have closed in Braddon and Longman, and will do so in half an hour in Mayo, and two hours in Perth and Adelaide. Results for small booths in Braddon should start coming in very shortly, but it will have to wait an hour or so for anything meaningful from Longman. For my own benefit more than anything, I have mocked up summarised booth results for Braddon and Longman which will, when there’s actual data to plug into them, will show booth-level primary vote totals, percentages and swings for the Labor, Liberal(-National), Greens, One Nation and Craig Garland (both the latter two are identified, wrongly, as “IND”). Other than that, the AEC publishes its own perfectly good booth-matched projected results (though not nearly enough besides), which can naturally be found at the official results page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

693 comments on “Super Saturday live”

  1. I was at a dinner, so was keeping track here… but it’s been amazing to see the CPG having to eat crow. They tried to make Labor leadershit a thing. It became a circle-jerk where the people weren’t listened to.

    I expected a kind of status quo result – but any swing to the ALP in Braddon is amazing and basically the whole deal in Longman shuts the entire CPG down.

  2. Cheers O.L. The local member has not impressed generally, and the local hospital is potentially biting as an issue, so maybe Gilmore will swing hard enough to become safe for few terms…

  3. Ven,

    Being better than Skynoos loons is not an achievement.

    The ABC coverage was it’s usual competence. Probably better than usual. Antony didn’t suffer any computer glitches.

    But the death of the narrative of the last three months between 7pm and 8:30 was obvious to watch. As you’d expect the imbecile Jennet was the slowest to catch on to what was happening, but even he picked up how the entire bootstrap about Shorten being in trouble fell apart a little more with each cross to Antony. Probes and La Tingle were a bit sharper, but they were all aboard the Kill Bill train at the start of proceedings.

    So the point isn’t that they ended up in the right spot. Elections have a way of sorting bullshit from reality. Even the most ridiculous fools can’t keep up with pretending one side is going to lose once the votes are actually counted. (hence Wayne’s absence)

    The point is that they all had absolutely no business starting out where they did. Labor losing a seat today was NEVER a realistic prospect. The entire artifice of Kill Bill was built on complete bullshit. EVERY member of the media that bought into it stands condemned. Cassidy at least had the decency to admit. Probyn and Tingle simply changed tack and hoped no one would notice.

  4. Wayne, well he lost the lot, he has to go! He started in the first polls with strong leads over Labor in Qld and Tas. The further it went the worse he got.

    Bill asked the voters, do you want the company tax cuts, they said no. They want things like penalty rates, education pathways to decent full time work, an NBN that is not a disgrace, pensioner power cost relief and on and on.

    Will the L/NP address any of these concerns or stick with the top end of town no matter what? Will they risk all for that 5%? Most of their beneficiaries are overseas companies or shareholders anyway. The only Aussies involved are the multi millionaires feeding the dollars into the conservative coffers in exchange for some kickback.

    Replacing MT with more of the same won’t help. And its all done without Albanese attracting another few percent to Labor.

  5. jen,

    Antony’s projections factor in the usual better Lib results on postals. So he had Labor sitting with that gap up at end of counting of ordinary votes, but having that balanced by the postals.

    I wouldn’t bet on Antony being too far wrong on that one.

  6. Super-Saturday in a nutshell:

    Psephologists, Bill Shorten, Cardboard Pauline: 1,
    Seat-polling, Malcolm Turnbull, Punditry: I just can’t even

  7. Well done Labor. Rumours of Bill’s death have been greatly exaggerated. The Libs must have known it was going to be bad when they refused to send anyone more senior than Zimmerman to the ABC panel.

    This has implications for more than leadership. The LNP now has a mandate for nothing. Rejected in four out of six states. Yet Pyne still says this drivel:
    “We will pass the tax cuts in the Spring session come hell or high water,” Mr Pyne told Sky News, referring to the resumption of parliament from August 13.”

    Really? Labor should not give in to this. Labor should stick to its announced policy, and reject the tax cuts as promised. Further, Labor should now publically name the suspect Coalition MPs, and ask to see their citizenship papers. Sadly, I suspect Turnbull will now drag out the next election for as long as possible. November 2019?

  8. It feels like Christmas in here. I turned on the tv late to see the ABC, Jennet looked in shock and very depressed. Sad looking lot, as though their hearts were broken, I hope many in media reflect on this and genuinely think about the reality for ordinary people

  9. Well, thank goodness that’s over. The coalition seemed to wheel out everything against Labor, including dragging JWH out of the glass case at Menzies House and it all added up to nowt. Bring on the Federal election now. All else is stalling the inevitable and just taking the opportunity to fuck up as much as possible before being booted.

  10. For gods sake man I’m from the Adelaide Hills and will treat you with disdain as I see fit.
    You haters you.
    I spent my childhood in London as my father was practicing disdain and I’m recently back from a sojourn in London renewing my disdain and how dare you not allow my daughter to practice disdain.
    I’ll pack up my disdain and not play, you haters.
    Ill sit out my retirement(at your expense) and cast disdain from these hills.
    You you you……………
    God help the meals on wheels people.

  11. Fantastic results for Labor. The voters got it right. Journos got it wrong.

    Shorten is as tough as nails.

    Time for Turnbull to pi$$ off.

  12. Need a good laugh?
    Tune in to Bolt’s blog in the Herald Sun and check out the comments!
    Every semi-literate loon in or around the Liberal Party is baying for Turnbull’s head on a pike.

    Apparently there is a sub group within the Party known as The Black Hand which is controlled by Turnbull. Turnbull is part of a leftie conspiracy involving the ABC and Shorten. Pauline, Barnaby’s Nationals, Cory and David should coalesce with Abbott and the Monkey Pod to save Australia for the conservatives. The Liberal Party under Turnbull is doomed to oblivion at the next General Election. Pyne , Fiona, Birmingham, Julie and Marissa are class traitors. Julie the “Stick insect” is angling for a cushy job in the (quelle horreur) United Nations etc. etc. ad infinitum.

    After reading all that, I’ve come to the conclusion that you lot are quite sane.

  13. No, Puffy, no.

    I assure you that after a result like today’s, the squeals and wails of anguish, despondency and despair emanating from the rabid core of RWNJ’s on Bolt’s blog, has a soothing , calming and strangely euphoric effect on an old lefties psyche.

    You must try it some day.

  14. Very happy 🙂 and particularly relieved about Longman, although Lamb should ever have had a worry there given the quality of the opposition.

  15. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A GREAT morning actually!

    David Crowe kicks over the coals of the rout.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-wins-and-coalition-reels-in-super-saturday-byelections-20180728-p4zu7p.htmlCrowe says Bill Shorten can celebrate this victory.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/bill-shorten-can-celebrate-this-victory-20180728-p4zu7m.html
    Tony Wright on the Downer family whinge. Dolly is upset that the IPA kept on haunting Georgina. Funny that she was so proud of her association with it that she deleted it from her CV.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/downer-slams-abuse-and-hatred-aimed-at-aspiring-politician-daughter-20180728-p4zu7r.html
    Katharine Murphy tells the LNP what went wrong in Longman.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/28/labors-ground-campaign-delivers-a-thumping-to-the-lnp-in-longman
    The ABC’s Matt Abraham tells that one well-placed Liberal source from deep within the Mayo camp said he feared Georgina Downer might lose even more ground if she ran again. He said it was a big mistake for Downer to say yesterday that she would stand again as this was a decision for the party, not her.
    https://outline.com/KgDNJ3
    The Australian’s Simon Benson says Super Saturday has become a bloodbath for the LNP and a nightmare for Malcolm Turnbull and that the LNP has learned nothing.
    https://outline.com/6A8BVJ
    And its Ben Packham says Labor’s clean sweep of Super Saturday by-elections should silence talk of a challenge to Bill Shorten’s leadership.
    https://outline.com/fUaANm
    Michelle Grattan sums up Super Saturday by declaring it to be a major fillip for Shorten
    https://theconversation.com/crucial-super-saturday-labor-victories-a-major-fillip-for-shorten-100734
    Paula Matthewson says that the disastrous showing in Longman has sent a chilling signal to Turnbull.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/07/28/longman-by-election-disaster-coalition/
    Dana McCauley writes that privacy experts have rejected the federal government’s reassurances that My Health Record patient data will not be accessed by third parties without a warrant, demanding that it redraft laws giving authorities broad powers of access.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/my-health-records-laws-need-to-be-scrapped-and-rewritten-warn-experts-20180727-p4zu3g.html
    Ross Gittins says that with wage growth on the blink, it’s time to restore union bargaining power.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/with-wage-growth-on-the-blink-it-s-time-to-restore-union-bargaining-power-20180727-p4ztym.html
    Come on Philip, what are you waiting for?
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/pope-accepts-resignation-of-us-cardinal-amid-widening-sex-abuse-scandal-20180729-p4zu84.html
    Michael Pascoe taunts deniers with, “Don’t believe in climate change? Then come over to Europe”
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/07/27/climate-change-europe-heatwave/
    The Washington Post says that Ivanka Trump “has no clothes”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/ivanka-trump-the-heiress-has-no-clothes-20180727-p4zu17.html
    Founder of The Conversation and former editor-in-chief of The Age, Andrew Jaspan, writes the Nine takeover of Fairfax is not only a blow for media diversity but the deal is also pitched too cheaply.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/cloud-nine-fairfax-deal-a-blow-to-media-diversity-says-jaspan/
    Jessica Valenti writes that activists have already started preparing for the end of Roe v Wade in the US.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/28/week-in-patriarchy-roe-v-wade-self-induced-abortion

    Cartoon Corner

    Mett Golding sees Georgina off.

    Mark Knight at the AFL colosseum.

    Paul Zanetti and angry voters.

    Just a few in here. Matt Golding in particular.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-july-29-2018-20180728-h139n6.html
    No cartoon yet from Peter Broelman but he did tweet this. “BREAKING: Turnbull declares himself a victim of Sudanese gangs who masquerade as argumentative pensioners.”

  16. These elections confirm what we* already knew. The irony is that if the government and the CPG** hadn’t made such a big story*** out of these elections, then Labor’s win would not have been that big a story either. Labor’s win being reported as some kind of table turning moment has less to do with reality, and more to do with the narrative that had been constructed up until that point, which the CPG**** now have to stay consistent with.

    * Excepting the LNP, the CPG, and some bed wetters in the ALP.
    ** Who happily ran with the government narrative.
    *** Albanese waiting to pounce, Shorten’s leadership being tested, the focus on PPM rather than 2PP, etc.
    **** The LNP, on the other hand, will be furiously writing a whole new reality, Trump style.

  17. Good morning

    As I had predicted, Labor held both Braddon and Longman. The Braddon result was what I had expected, but the substantial swing to Labor in Longman was quite a surprise.

    Whether you believe, like me, that there had been something in it or, like some posters on PB, it had been entirely concocted by the media, any challenge against Shorten is now kaput.

    And things could get even better for Shorten and Labor if the results of last night embolden the conservative faction of the Libs to resume their destabilisation of Turnbull. A right-wing coup within the Libs would make Labor odds-on favourites to win the next election IMO.

    So it was a triumphant night for Labor, except perhaps for the poor branch members and supporters in Mayo: has a Labor candidate ever recorded a lower vote in a Federal seat?

  18. Bill asked the voters, do you want the company tax cuts, they said no. They want things like penalty rates, education pathways to decent full time work, an NBN that is not a disgrace, pensioner power cost relief and on and on.

    To the Australian that is ‘class war’, the voters however see it differently.

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