Super Saturday live

Live coverage of the counting for the Super Saturday by-elections (especially Braddon and Longman).

9.31pm. So much for the last entry. Patrick Gorman’s projected two-party vote is now 61.6%.

9.18pm. It’s only based on 1000 votes from Leederville and Northbridge, and suburbs further out might tell a different story, but the first two-party results in Perth suggest Patrick Gorman is headed for a fairly modest winning over the Greens. Conversely, Josh Wilson is outpolling the Greens two to one in Fremantle.

9.00pm. The Devonport PPVC result is also nothing special for the Liberals, so the door has closed on them in Braddon now.

8.55pm. First figures from Perth don’t bear out ReachTEL’s indication of a strong Liberal Democrats result, with more of the homeless Liberal vote going to independent Paul Collins.

8.53pm. Labor think they have Braddon in the bag, and the Burnie PPVC result that has just come through might explain why: the Liberals have copped an 8.7% hit on the primary vote there. Only Devonport and Queenstown PPVCs, plus postals, yet to come.

8.20pm. Labor still tracking for a winning margin approaching 5% in Longman.

8.13pm. The first PPVC in from Braddon is Ulvertstone, which has only 513 votes. It’s indeed a bit better for the Liberals than polling day votes, with their primary vote down by 2.1%, compared with 6.6% overall – although that’s still less than what they need.

8.10pm. So there has been no swing at all out of the polling day booths in Braddon, which have produced around 47,000 votes. That means the Liberals need to conjure a swing of around 7.5% out of probably 10,000 pre-polls and 7000 postals. Which doesn’t seem terribly likely.

8.02pm. Only the PPVCs to come from Braddon now. Polls have closed in Perth and Fremantle.

7.52pm. The projected Labor margin in Braddon is down to 2.0%. Two more polling day booths to report in Braddon, plus the four pre-poll voting centres, which could yet disgorge many thousands of votes. However, it seems to be agreed that it’s time to pull the plug on the LNP in Longman, and Georgina Downer is conceding defeat in Mayo.

7.40pm. A bit of dispute on the ABC as to whether the LNP is getting 70% or 60% of One Nation preferences in Longman. They will need for it to be very high indeed, and for something highly dramatic to happen in the pre-poll voting centres.

7.38pm. A very quick count in Braddon, where the momentum against Labor is levelling off. The AEC now projects a 2.6% Labor margin, but the potential for a different dynamic from the pre-poll voting centres means a measure of caution is still advised.

7.25pm. I’ve now got primary vote swings of 8.6% against Labor and 6.7% against Liberal in Braddon, with Craig Garland now barely into double figures. Labor’s projected two-party is continuing its slow decline, now at 2.2%. Given the trend as larger booths come in, and the unknown factor of the large pre-poll voting centres that will come in later in the evening, I wouldn’t be ready to call this.

7.24pm. We’ve now gone from around 7000 to around 14,000 primary votes counted in Longman, and the earlier trend is continuing: Labor holding steady, Liberal down around 14%, One Nation on around 15%. So looking like a surprisingly solid Labor win. No surprises in Mayo.

7.18pm. The situation is still a little elusive in Braddon: two-party projections point to a Labor win, but the primary count is well ahead of it, and the Labor primary vote there is beginning to sag. Bit of a lull in Longman counting, but the early indications are extremely strong for Labor.

7.12pm. Picture beginning to change in Braddon as larger centres do less well for Craig Garland. The ABC now has the Labor swing at 2.7%, which is down from over 4% earlier. The AEC computer is calling it for Labor, but given that trend, this should be treated with caution at the moment.

7.10pm. Count progressing a little quick than I’d figure in Longman, and here too Labor are doing quite a bit better than expected, holding their own on the primary vote while One Nation gouges double figures out of the LNP.

7.02pm. There are some reasonably serious primary vote numbers in now from Braddon, and that earlier picture is still holding: Craig Garland is on 16.3%, and Liberal are down more than Labor. The first two-party results suggest this is converting into a two-party swing to Labor.

6.50pm. Still only 1591 votes counted, but the early dynamic in Braddon is that Craig Garland is doing very strongly, coming in at the high teens, and he’s gouging the Liberals twice as heavily as Labor. If this kept up, Labor would win pretty handily on preferences from 35% of the primary vote.

6.40pm. The first two small booths in from Braddon are Moorleah (183 votes), where Craig Garland has a fairly spectacular 26.8%, and Waratah (139 votes), where he has a rather more modest 10.8%. For the time being though, he’s gouging double figures out of both major parties’ primary votes.

6pm. Polls have closed in Braddon and Longman, and will do so in half an hour in Mayo, and two hours in Perth and Adelaide. Results for small booths in Braddon should start coming in very shortly, but it will have to wait an hour or so for anything meaningful from Longman. For my own benefit more than anything, I have mocked up summarised booth results for Braddon and Longman which will, when there’s actual data to plug into them, will show booth-level primary vote totals, percentages and swings for the Labor, Liberal(-National), Greens, One Nation and Craig Garland (both the latter two are identified, wrongly, as “IND”). Other than that, the AEC publishes its own perfectly good booth-matched projected results (though not nearly enough besides), which can naturally be found at the official results page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

693 comments on “Super Saturday live”

  1. C@t I hope you’re right. If the momentum spills into Gilmore and Co. these byelections will have been a very good tactic from Brian Trumble, ALP spy extraordinaire.

  2. Did you notice c@tmomma that primary vote drop from TAS state election to this by-election is 17% in Braddon. I understand that state and federal issues are different but still

  3. [Darren there was a number of polls about the medal issue.]

    I know and my view is that it won’t really tell you if it has changed votes or not. Such questions almost work as a push poll. Only free response polling (focus group style) could tell you for sure, but you can never get large enough groups for that to be reliable.

    I suspect the medal issue did not help the LNP one bit — but that is just my opinion.

  4. Ven @ #597 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 10:43 pm

    Did you notice c@tmomma that primary vote drop from TAS state election to this by-election is 17% in Braddon. I understand that state and federal issues are different but still

    Explained due to the fact that Liberal State voters didn’t like Liberal federal candidate. Plus, Tas State Liberals ran a better campaign than federal Liberals.

  5. zoomster says:
    Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 10:29 pm
    Meanwhile, my son has rung in a panic from Malaysia. He is meant to be flying home in a couple of hours and has (apparently) lost his passport.

    __________________

    I feel for him, that is my secret dread when overseas.

    I guess you’ve gone through all the ‘go to all the places you have been lately’ and ‘go to your suitcase/backpack, put it on one side of the room, and remove everything, right down to the last shirt, empty every last pocket, shake everything, put the cleared items on the other side of the room’.

    Do it as slowly and methodically as you can while the panic continues to rise….

    My bet is he has simply misplaced it, and it is sitting in the pocket of a jacket or pair of trousers somewhere.

    Small backpacks have a nasty habit of hiding something important in the dim recesses at the bottom.

  6. ajm @ #593 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 10:41 pm

    C@tmomma @ #582 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 10:32 pm

    Evan @ #564 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 10:27 pm

    I wonder how long before Peter Dutton is trying to move into a safer seat than Dickson?
    Federally, Labor has underperformed in QLD since 2010, tonight indicates that this might drastically change next year.

    Ross Vasta has a safe seat and is a non-performer. Watch out, Ross! 😀

    It isn’t all that safe. And Labor has a cracker of a female candidate already campaigning, Jo Briskey

    Good! ๐Ÿ™‚

  7. don

    Well, I hope he has done all those things! Alas, he had run out of credit on his phone as well, so communication has been via facebook messages, not really ideal.

    I’m inclined to go for the misplaced it option, but I think he’s missed his flight now so it’s all a bit moot….

  8. @C@tmomma

    Kevin Bonham has remarked at something like a fifth to a quarter of Tasmanian voters at a state level switch between the Liberals and Labor to ensure that the Greens don’t get the balance of power.

  9. Well, tonight’s imagery of crestfallen LNP operatives and the sight
    of pundits being force-fed humble pie totally makes up for the past
    8 weeks (FFS) of concern trolling, rampant leadership bootstrapping,
    selectively reported single-seat polls and spiteful abuse by an up-jumped
    wide boy whose “august leader” mask slips a little too often.

    Turnbull should feel lucky that we can only judge him against the rogues
    gallery that holds office in most worldwide places of importance,
    like a dented but dully gleaming pewter mug standing among an array
    of misshapen and chipped clay pots in the family sideboard.

    I congratulate the electors of Super Saturday for seeing these by-elections for
    what they really were: a cynical and vindictive exercise in grubby politicking
    by an arrogant claque of plutocratic lickspittles, whose lust for untrammelled
    power has strangled any notion of moderation or personal respect in its cot.

    I normally toast any LNP reverse with champagne – either a French vintage (2007)
    or a good local bottle (Abbott getting knocked off). Tonight I’ll settle for a couple
    of pint cans of Oranjeboom from Aldi (only $10 for a 4 pack!)

  10. [I still think this is a big win for funding the ABC/B1B2.
    Labor is on a winner backing the ABC in marginal electorates.]

    And you’d think the ABC would be happy with the results as a result!

    And yet, Lara Tingle and Probyn looked to have had acute depression all night.

  11. Conservatives in media and LNP will talking up LNP leadership change now. nervous backbenches in Qld and WA in particular may in the mood for a change after this.

    No sign of turnbull tonight?

  12. Victoria – yes, thanks, I tried to find a copy here but failed – he says he has a copy with him. Apparently he has to wait until Monday, apply for an emergency passport, and it will take two days for it to be sorted.

  13. FPM Julia Gillard tweets..

    Congratulations to all the @AustralianLabor winners tonight. They each waged strong campaigns that spoke to the issues that matter. A great result for @billshortenmp and the entire the Labor team.

  14. The medal issue in Longman wasn’t just a matter of the original deception/”mistake”, but also the totally incredible attempt to explain it. Anyone who has received a medal knows what it is called. To suggest otherwise is to treat the voters as fools.

  15. zoomster @ #615 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 7:48 pm

    don

    Well, I hope he has done all those things! Alas, he had run out of credit on his phone as well, so communication has been via facebook messages, not really ideal.

    I’m inclined to go for the misplaced it option, but I think he’s missed his flight now so it’s all a bit moot….

    I washed mine once.

    Probably would have been ok if I hadn’t then put it in the dryer!

    Not a good experience.

    Contact the Embassy and the airline.

    The airline may be nice and reschedule the flight for him or at least get him to Jakarta.

    That will make it easier to get a replacement at the Embassy.

    Good luck!! ๐Ÿ™‚

  16. Has William Bowe ceased providing us with his singularly astute updates? If he’s off partying like it’s 1999 now, I’ll just say Muchas Gracias to all Bludgers for a marvellous evening of comments.

  17. Darren Laver says Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 8:59 pm

    One Nation leaks to Labor much more than the Greens do to Liberal.

    Turnbull et al will regret boosting Pauline โ€“ theyโ€™re only getting 7 out of 10 of their voters backโ€ฆ

    I tend to think Greens voters preferencing Liberals would probably vote Liberal if they didn’t vote Green, and PHON voters preferencing Labor were probably formerly ALP voters. I’m far from convinced that PHON voters who preference the ALP would have neen LNP voters.

  18. Has the ABC 2CP prediction override been turned off yet in favour of the raw numbers, if not does anyone know when we can expect that to happen?

  19. @Dio

    I still think this is a big win for funding the ABC/B1B2.
    Labor is on a winner backing the ABC in marginal electorates.

    OMG, those pictures of B1 and B2 being interviewed by Channels 7, 9 and 10, with Georgina Downer in the frame, made this very obvious.

    Georgina Downer would definitely have been of the PlaySchool generations – and isn’t it amazing. So, to me it almost seemed to me to be like a Stephen King nightmare for her to be pursued by B1 and B2.

    Why don’t I feel sorry for her? She would strip all income, education and healthcare rights from people who have not been born privileged, or who have fallen on ha]rd times.

  20. Poor old Big Kev and his claim that getting his medals mixed up was an “honest mistake”.

    Well hands up, who wants their member of Parliament to be someone who makes “honest mistakes”?

  21. don @ #603 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 10:46 pm

    zoomster says:
    Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 10:29 pm
    Meanwhile, my son has rung in a panic from Malaysia. He is meant to be flying home in a couple of hours and has (apparently) lost his passport.

    __________________

    I feel for him, that is my secret dread when overseas.

    I guess you’ve gone through all the ‘go to all the places you have been lately’ and ‘go to your suitcase/backpack, put it on one side of the room, and remove everything, right down to the last shirt, empty every last pocket, shake everything, put the cleared items on the other side of the room’.

    My bet is he has simply misplaced it, and it is sitting in the pocket of a jacket or pair of trousers somewhere.

    This happened to me once in London. After spending 30 minutes searching for my passport (2am @ Heathrow) with the help of a security guy I found the bloody thing in another pocket. Just short of waking the Australian Ambassador (or equiv.). I was lucky. They were very kind. ๐Ÿ™‚

  22. In an abrupt and amusing way actually.

    You could watch the narrative die in real time on the ABC tonight.

    I mean even after a pretty good early indications from Braddon and Longman that the Labor losing a seat idea was a non starter that imbecile Jennet was asking Swan about Kill Bill. Husic also had to bat away similar nonsense from Probyn when the way the numbers were going was already starting to become clear.

    But as the night progressed Probyn and Tingle had far too much reality to continue to ignore shouting at them.

    In the end they were giving poor old Trent short shrift for his spin. It looked like they were almost embarrassed at how ridiculous their last three months’ output was being made to look. So as any good bullshit artist does they (reasonably seamlessly) switched to the new narrative. Not quite ‘We’ve always been at war with Eastasia’ smooth, but not too bad.

  23. What a wonderful evening! At least the whole world hasn’t gone to shit. Thank you voters of Longman, Brandon, Mayo, Perth, Fremantle.

  24. @boomy1

    I like you D & M. You seem nice.

    Thank you ๐Ÿ™‚

    Being nice is both my special power and my Achilles heel.

    But also, people do not understand that my niceness and helpfulness is because I assume the people I interact with will behave in a reasonable and adult manner.

    They get really shocked when I go from nice person to Bitch in 90 seconds.

    Professional development people at work have told me this is my problem, and no wonder people get pissed off with me. Apparently I should be aggressive from the start or something….

  25. Ven, why are you so unkind?

    A fit of the vapours can be debilitating, and it is not nice to poke fun at those who are feeling unwell.

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