Super Saturday live

Live coverage of the counting for the Super Saturday by-elections (especially Braddon and Longman).

9.31pm. So much for the last entry. Patrick Gorman’s projected two-party vote is now 61.6%.

9.18pm. It’s only based on 1000 votes from Leederville and Northbridge, and suburbs further out might tell a different story, but the first two-party results in Perth suggest Patrick Gorman is headed for a fairly modest winning over the Greens. Conversely, Josh Wilson is outpolling the Greens two to one in Fremantle.

9.00pm. The Devonport PPVC result is also nothing special for the Liberals, so the door has closed on them in Braddon now.

8.55pm. First figures from Perth don’t bear out ReachTEL’s indication of a strong Liberal Democrats result, with more of the homeless Liberal vote going to independent Paul Collins.

8.53pm. Labor think they have Braddon in the bag, and the Burnie PPVC result that has just come through might explain why: the Liberals have copped an 8.7% hit on the primary vote there. Only Devonport and Queenstown PPVCs, plus postals, yet to come.

8.20pm. Labor still tracking for a winning margin approaching 5% in Longman.

8.13pm. The first PPVC in from Braddon is Ulvertstone, which has only 513 votes. It’s indeed a bit better for the Liberals than polling day votes, with their primary vote down by 2.1%, compared with 6.6% overall – although that’s still less than what they need.

8.10pm. So there has been no swing at all out of the polling day booths in Braddon, which have produced around 47,000 votes. That means the Liberals need to conjure a swing of around 7.5% out of probably 10,000 pre-polls and 7000 postals. Which doesn’t seem terribly likely.

8.02pm. Only the PPVCs to come from Braddon now. Polls have closed in Perth and Fremantle.

7.52pm. The projected Labor margin in Braddon is down to 2.0%. Two more polling day booths to report in Braddon, plus the four pre-poll voting centres, which could yet disgorge many thousands of votes. However, it seems to be agreed that it’s time to pull the plug on the LNP in Longman, and Georgina Downer is conceding defeat in Mayo.

7.40pm. A bit of dispute on the ABC as to whether the LNP is getting 70% or 60% of One Nation preferences in Longman. They will need for it to be very high indeed, and for something highly dramatic to happen in the pre-poll voting centres.

7.38pm. A very quick count in Braddon, where the momentum against Labor is levelling off. The AEC now projects a 2.6% Labor margin, but the potential for a different dynamic from the pre-poll voting centres means a measure of caution is still advised.

7.25pm. I’ve now got primary vote swings of 8.6% against Labor and 6.7% against Liberal in Braddon, with Craig Garland now barely into double figures. Labor’s projected two-party is continuing its slow decline, now at 2.2%. Given the trend as larger booths come in, and the unknown factor of the large pre-poll voting centres that will come in later in the evening, I wouldn’t be ready to call this.

7.24pm. We’ve now gone from around 7000 to around 14,000 primary votes counted in Longman, and the earlier trend is continuing: Labor holding steady, Liberal down around 14%, One Nation on around 15%. So looking like a surprisingly solid Labor win. No surprises in Mayo.

7.18pm. The situation is still a little elusive in Braddon: two-party projections point to a Labor win, but the primary count is well ahead of it, and the Labor primary vote there is beginning to sag. Bit of a lull in Longman counting, but the early indications are extremely strong for Labor.

7.12pm. Picture beginning to change in Braddon as larger centres do less well for Craig Garland. The ABC now has the Labor swing at 2.7%, which is down from over 4% earlier. The AEC computer is calling it for Labor, but given that trend, this should be treated with caution at the moment.

7.10pm. Count progressing a little quick than I’d figure in Longman, and here too Labor are doing quite a bit better than expected, holding their own on the primary vote while One Nation gouges double figures out of the LNP.

7.02pm. There are some reasonably serious primary vote numbers in now from Braddon, and that earlier picture is still holding: Craig Garland is on 16.3%, and Liberal are down more than Labor. The first two-party results suggest this is converting into a two-party swing to Labor.

6.50pm. Still only 1591 votes counted, but the early dynamic in Braddon is that Craig Garland is doing very strongly, coming in at the high teens, and he’s gouging the Liberals twice as heavily as Labor. If this kept up, Labor would win pretty handily on preferences from 35% of the primary vote.

6.40pm. The first two small booths in from Braddon are Moorleah (183 votes), where Craig Garland has a fairly spectacular 26.8%, and Waratah (139 votes), where he has a rather more modest 10.8%. For the time being though, he’s gouging double figures out of both major parties’ primary votes.

6pm. Polls have closed in Braddon and Longman, and will do so in half an hour in Mayo, and two hours in Perth and Adelaide. Results for small booths in Braddon should start coming in very shortly, but it will have to wait an hour or so for anything meaningful from Longman. For my own benefit more than anything, I have mocked up summarised booth results for Braddon and Longman which will, when there’s actual data to plug into them, will show booth-level primary vote totals, percentages and swings for the Labor, Liberal(-National), Greens, One Nation and Craig Garland (both the latter two are identified, wrongly, as “IND”). Other than that, the AEC publishes its own perfectly good booth-matched projected results (though not nearly enough besides), which can naturally be found at the official results page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

693 comments on “Super Saturday live”

  1. The lineup for the next round of #leadershit..

    If only Trumble had visited #Longman twice as many times – the #LNP vote could have been down 20%. Now I guess the panicking party room will have to choose between the Cocktail Partyer, Shouty McShoutface, The Potato, or the Onion Eater. #auspol

  2. https://outline.com/6A8BVJ

    From the Smearstralian.

    “Super Saturday has become a bloodbath for the LNP and a nightmare for Malcolm Turnbull. ”

    “But the apparent collapse in the LNP primary vote in Longman has been stunning. It was the only seat that mattered today as a bellwether for the next election.”

    🙂

  3. C@

    …and the government is funneling more services into Centrelink, meaning more people are having to interact with the organisation and are thus experiencing the delights of 90 minute waits on the phone (because the on line services are so badly designed that attempting to use them always results in having to try and contact a real person…) – if you can get through at all, of course.

  4. To be fair (cough) Brian is still a cherry on top of the compost heap.

    I hope the LNP really does replace him with either Dame Asbestos or Reich Affairs Minister Obrest Groupenfuhrer kartoffelkopf.

  5. So now it seems various CPG luminaries are rapidly switching from “Kill Bill” to “Murder Malcolm” (I forget which PB contributor coined this term).

    It will be interesting to read and listen to these sages in coming days.

  6. @WilliamBowe


    On the ABC I’ve been watching, Laura Tingle has been gushing about Labor and its candidates and Andrew Probyn has been trumpeting a major victory for Bill Shorten.

    Yep. that is how I read the coverage. Full marks to the ABC panel. And, also to Greg Jennet.

  7. Douglas and Milko,
    George Johnston’s novels are profoundly autobiographical, so your reticence is understandable. ‘MBJ’ and ‘The Year of Living Dangerously’ are my favourite Australian novels. Both writers hated wankers with a passion.

  8. C@tmomma I hope it’s true. Certainly there was a buzz in the air around the victory speeches. Somewhat reminiscent of Brian Trumble with Barnaby Joyce! There still doesn’t seem to be a real belief that Labor is offering something truly different {I think the polls should be 62/38 TPP}, but it was good to see Bill drive home the equality message while he had the spotlight. Imagine if fairness and equality prove more important to Queenslanders than social conservatism and racial bigotry…
    Loving the RW Nut Jobs eating their young over this.

  9. I fucking hate you ShowsOn. One of the smartest and funny posters anywhere and you just get around in secret. Not cool. Be Cool again soon.

  10. Told ya imacca. The RWNJs aren’t going to just pretend today didn’t happen.

    And the media will follow right along. Everything was set up for story after story about Shorten getting boned. But that narrative is dead. So the sheep will follow the next easiest narrative. The right will be happy to provide it for them.

  11. zoom,
    Any public service-Medicare, Centrelink, Tax, Education, Health-has been salami-sliced down to the bare bones by the 5 years of Coalition government. And then they victimise and vilify those who have to use them! It has created a lot of people who are not happy, Malcolm!

  12. I wonder how long before Peter Dutton is trying to move into a safer seat than Dickson?
    Federally, Labor has underperformed in QLD since 2010, tonight indicates that this might drastically change next year.

  13. “But that narrative is dead.”

    In an abrupt and amusing way actually. 🙂

    Time for the ALP to sit back a bit and just engage enough to give them the odd poke while letting them eat themselves.

  14. I bet also that the Abbott cheer squad in the media will be in meltdown mode tomorrow, especially on Radio Abbott, otherwise known as 2GB in Sydney.

  15. Meanwhile, my son has rung in a panic from Malaysia. He is meant to be flying home in a couple of hours and has (apparently) lost his passport.

  16. ‘Trent Zimmerman is very happy the ABC coverage is over’..I wonder what poor bastard has to clean his seat.

    Turnbull’s judgement on display again-
    Refer ALP members to the High Court leading to avoidable by-elections that Governments invariably lose.
    Call a super long campaign to give them time to do Bill slowly.
    Campaign personally non-stop and make it a Presidential contest.
    Say it is an election about Me and Bill.

  17. Have to give a nod to Trent Zimmerman for his statement at the end of tonight that all five disqualified dual-citizen candidates were returned.

    Words to the effect that this rather disgraceful episode in Australia’s political life is now ended.

    Who was it that caused these five by-elections? Remind me again …….

  18. d-money,
    ‘The Labor Machine’ tm, are already purring along with their federal election campaign. Refining messages, announcing policies, doing the social media stuff. Hopefully these election results will prove to people that are reluctant to support Labor in the regular polling that others in the community are listening to Labor’s message and supporting it, and hopefully they won’t be so shy to say to the pollsters that they do too.

  19. C@tmomma @ 10.15 pm

    Spot on. There’s no point in denying what the polls tell us: Mr Shorten isn’t popular. But the policies he’s been pushing for a long time clearly are. What the conservatives try to characterise as “class war” is really just appealing to a sense of fairness. And the problem for the coalition is that many of them simply don’t accept that fairness is even a meaningful issue. But it’s one that is clearly resonating, and one that the ALP now owns.

  20. So, before I go to sleep, the lyrics from that great Pete Seeger song, although as presented here, added to by others:

    Where have all the flowers gone?
    Long time passing
    Where have all the flowers gone?
    Long time ago
    Where have all the flowers gone?
    Girls have picked them every one
    When will they ever learn?
    When will they ever learn?
    Where have all the young girls gone?
    Long time passing
    Where have all the young girls gone?
    Long time ago
    Where have all the young girls gone?
    Taken husbands every one
    When will they ever learn?
    When will they ever learn?
    Where have all the young men gone?
    Long time passing
    Where have all the young men gone?
    Long time ago
    Where have all the young men gone?
    Gone for soldiers every one
    When will they ever learn?
    When will they ever learn?
    Where have all the soldiers gone?
    Long time passing
    Where have all the soldiers gone?
    Long time ago
    Where…
    Where have all the graveyards gone?
    Long time passing
    Where have all the graveyards gone?
    Long time ago
    Where have all the graveyards gone?
    Covered with flowers every one
    When will we ever learn?
    When will we ever learn?
    Songwriters: Peter Seeger
    Where Have All the Flowers Gone lyrics © O/B/O Apra Amcos

  21. The results in Longman and Mayo are looking terrible for Malcolm Turnbull, Turnbull can be fortunate that is nobody who poses a credible threat to his job.

  22. Anyway, after a fine evening, off to bed. We have mourned losses at times but tonight get the other side, celebrate a good win, and look forward to hearing the lamentation of our enemies upon the morrow.

    🙂

  23. From the Oz article..

    At the heart of it was a stronger message from Bill Shorten that posed a singular question to voters — did they want better hospitals or better banks.

    Labor’s campaign against company tax cuts worked.

    Of course it worked. And the Liberals should be very worried about this. That their tax cuts are a vote loser.

    Of course Simon Benson then wrote..

    Turnbull’s strategy to expose Labor’s lies didn’t.

    Ok, so Simon lives in a bubble, but its the same bubble that will ensure the Liberals won’t change their policy and won’t/can’t believe anything is wrong with it.

  24. [William, Probyn looks like he’s about to cry, and Tingle is ashen faced…]

    Yes, exactly. As noted earlier, the ABC panel looked as if someone had died. I’ve seen happier people at a funeral.

    They spent the first hour or so trying to talk themselves out of Antony’s computer projections and then the latter half about how there would not be an early election (they’ve ruled that out by themselves it seems) rather than Turnbull having to consider an early election to stave off a challenge from Dutton.

  25. William.
    On the ABC I’ve been watching, Laura Tingle has been gushing about Labor and its candidates and Andrew Probyn has been trumpeting a major victory for Bill Shorten.

    That’s after the drovers dog has buried his bone & gone to bed .

    They are just claiming their position ( late) so they can go after Mal… too lazy by half.

  26. Not sure if the ABC computer has gone off its postal vote adjustments now, but if the pre-polls are even better for Labor, that could be why the projection is now at 58% TPP. Does anyone know if One Nation was actually manning pre-poll stations to ‘enforce’ its preferences?

    Trent’s ‘this is just a standard by-election swing’ commentary looking even sillier now — the ABC never pulled him up on that — they had “early days” cavets anytime Labor was seen as winning, but not “early days” cavets in that the swing could get WORSE for the LNP.

    The ABC’s problem is that it relies totally on “received wisdom” and ceased thinking for itself some time ago.

  27. Most of the polling suggested the medal issue wasn’t all that important however there was real anger with most of the people I talked to. The LNP are hopeless at vetting candidates.

  28. From Amy on the Guardian blog. 🙂

    Just before we wrap up, and because I know these words will be important in the coming weeks, here are the times we’ve found where Malcolm Turnbull made the byelections a contest between himself and Bill Shorten:

    This was back in May

    NEIL MITCHELL:

    Okay. Do you think these Super Saturday by elections is a test for Bill Shorten’s leadership?

    PRIME MINISTER:

    Well I mean every election is a test for both leaders.

    NEIL MITCHELL:

    So it is for you as well?

    PRIME MINISTER:

    Well yes it is. But I mean I just want to be realistic about this. You know the last time the government won a by election seat from an opposition in a by election was 1911, so.

    NEIL MITCHELL:

    So you’re not expecting to win any?

    PRIME MINISTER:

    Well we always try to win. We campaign hard to win. But you’ve got to be realistic about your expectations.

    And the quote from my story on July 12 came from this interview:

    PRIME MINISTER: And the people of Longman are going to have a choice soon in the by-election and they’ll have the opportunity to cast their judgment on the rolled gold guarantees that Bill Shorten has given, whether it’s about Susan Lamb’s citizenship, or whether it’s about tax.

    He’s had just about every position on tax, being in favour of cutting company tax when he was in government, and now he wants to put it up.

    They’ll have the opportunity to vote and give their opinion on the strength of the economy and the need to have strong, Liberal National Government to deliver that economic leadership that is delivering the strong growth in jobs that we’ve seen, last year, 2017, alone – 415,000 jobs created, strongest jobs growth in our country’s history.

    REBECCA LEVINGSTON: So if the Labor voters are about Bill Shorten, are those in the LNP voting for Malcolm Turnbull?

    PRIME MINISTER: Of course. The head-up, the contest is between me and Bill Shorten as the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader.

  29. Louise Yaxley just now on ABC online:

    “Before the string of by-elections, Braddon and Longman were expected to be close, and some had suggested Mr Shorten’s leadership would be questioned if either seat was lost.”

    How CPG journos attempt to rewrite history (especially if it concerns themselves).

  30. [Most of the polling suggested the medal issue wasn’t all that important however there was real anger with most of the people I talked to. ]

    Polling won’t tell you this.

  31. C@tmomma @ #582 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 10:32 pm

    Evan @ #564 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 10:27 pm

    I wonder how long before Peter Dutton is trying to move into a safer seat than Dickson?
    Federally, Labor has underperformed in QLD since 2010, tonight indicates that this might drastically change next year.

    Ross Vasta has a safe seat and is a non-performer. Watch out, Ross! 😀

    It isn’t all that safe. And Labor has a cracker of a female candidate already campaigning, Jo Briskey

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