Super Saturday live

Live coverage of the counting for the Super Saturday by-elections (especially Braddon and Longman).

9.31pm. So much for the last entry. Patrick Gorman’s projected two-party vote is now 61.6%.

9.18pm. It’s only based on 1000 votes from Leederville and Northbridge, and suburbs further out might tell a different story, but the first two-party results in Perth suggest Patrick Gorman is headed for a fairly modest winning over the Greens. Conversely, Josh Wilson is outpolling the Greens two to one in Fremantle.

9.00pm. The Devonport PPVC result is also nothing special for the Liberals, so the door has closed on them in Braddon now.

8.55pm. First figures from Perth don’t bear out ReachTEL’s indication of a strong Liberal Democrats result, with more of the homeless Liberal vote going to independent Paul Collins.

8.53pm. Labor think they have Braddon in the bag, and the Burnie PPVC result that has just come through might explain why: the Liberals have copped an 8.7% hit on the primary vote there. Only Devonport and Queenstown PPVCs, plus postals, yet to come.

8.20pm. Labor still tracking for a winning margin approaching 5% in Longman.

8.13pm. The first PPVC in from Braddon is Ulvertstone, which has only 513 votes. It’s indeed a bit better for the Liberals than polling day votes, with their primary vote down by 2.1%, compared with 6.6% overall – although that’s still less than what they need.

8.10pm. So there has been no swing at all out of the polling day booths in Braddon, which have produced around 47,000 votes. That means the Liberals need to conjure a swing of around 7.5% out of probably 10,000 pre-polls and 7000 postals. Which doesn’t seem terribly likely.

8.02pm. Only the PPVCs to come from Braddon now. Polls have closed in Perth and Fremantle.

7.52pm. The projected Labor margin in Braddon is down to 2.0%. Two more polling day booths to report in Braddon, plus the four pre-poll voting centres, which could yet disgorge many thousands of votes. However, it seems to be agreed that it’s time to pull the plug on the LNP in Longman, and Georgina Downer is conceding defeat in Mayo.

7.40pm. A bit of dispute on the ABC as to whether the LNP is getting 70% or 60% of One Nation preferences in Longman. They will need for it to be very high indeed, and for something highly dramatic to happen in the pre-poll voting centres.

7.38pm. A very quick count in Braddon, where the momentum against Labor is levelling off. The AEC now projects a 2.6% Labor margin, but the potential for a different dynamic from the pre-poll voting centres means a measure of caution is still advised.

7.25pm. I’ve now got primary vote swings of 8.6% against Labor and 6.7% against Liberal in Braddon, with Craig Garland now barely into double figures. Labor’s projected two-party is continuing its slow decline, now at 2.2%. Given the trend as larger booths come in, and the unknown factor of the large pre-poll voting centres that will come in later in the evening, I wouldn’t be ready to call this.

7.24pm. We’ve now gone from around 7000 to around 14,000 primary votes counted in Longman, and the earlier trend is continuing: Labor holding steady, Liberal down around 14%, One Nation on around 15%. So looking like a surprisingly solid Labor win. No surprises in Mayo.

7.18pm. The situation is still a little elusive in Braddon: two-party projections point to a Labor win, but the primary count is well ahead of it, and the Labor primary vote there is beginning to sag. Bit of a lull in Longman counting, but the early indications are extremely strong for Labor.

7.12pm. Picture beginning to change in Braddon as larger centres do less well for Craig Garland. The ABC now has the Labor swing at 2.7%, which is down from over 4% earlier. The AEC computer is calling it for Labor, but given that trend, this should be treated with caution at the moment.

7.10pm. Count progressing a little quick than I’d figure in Longman, and here too Labor are doing quite a bit better than expected, holding their own on the primary vote while One Nation gouges double figures out of the LNP.

7.02pm. There are some reasonably serious primary vote numbers in now from Braddon, and that earlier picture is still holding: Craig Garland is on 16.3%, and Liberal are down more than Labor. The first two-party results suggest this is converting into a two-party swing to Labor.

6.50pm. Still only 1591 votes counted, but the early dynamic in Braddon is that Craig Garland is doing very strongly, coming in at the high teens, and he’s gouging the Liberals twice as heavily as Labor. If this kept up, Labor would win pretty handily on preferences from 35% of the primary vote.

6.40pm. The first two small booths in from Braddon are Moorleah (183 votes), where Craig Garland has a fairly spectacular 26.8%, and Waratah (139 votes), where he has a rather more modest 10.8%. For the time being though, he’s gouging double figures out of both major parties’ primary votes.

6pm. Polls have closed in Braddon and Longman, and will do so in half an hour in Mayo, and two hours in Perth and Adelaide. Results for small booths in Braddon should start coming in very shortly, but it will have to wait an hour or so for anything meaningful from Longman. For my own benefit more than anything, I have mocked up summarised booth results for Braddon and Longman which will, when there’s actual data to plug into them, will show booth-level primary vote totals, percentages and swings for the Labor, Liberal(-National), Greens, One Nation and Craig Garland (both the latter two are identified, wrongly, as “IND”). Other than that, the AEC publishes its own perfectly good booth-matched projected results (though not nearly enough besides), which can naturally be found at the official results page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

693 comments on “Super Saturday live”

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  5. Lurker, here: but when these threads go live I always feel like I should have brought a plate and something for the esky, or at least some such tangible substitute for pertinent insights.

    Cheers and thanks as ever to our host.

  7. Centrebet odds at close of voting:

    Braddon – Labor 1.28 Liberal 3.50

    Longman – Labor 1.58 Liberal 2.30

    Mayo – Sharkie 1.04 Downer 9.00

  11. Did I miss something? William assumed that Newspoll used respondent allocated preferences. Surely, it used the the last Qld state election prefs as it does for its federal national polls. Why change a boondoggle now?

  18. More
    Breaking: 2 of the Pauline Hanson cut outs have officially left the party and are currently being wooed by both the Liberal Democrats and the Bob Katter party. #auspol

  19. With all the coverage being heaped on the by-election does one get the sense that Malcolm has his ( & the LNPs) future riding on a good outcome ?
    He’s bet his house on it.

  20. “Will #KillBill become #KillMalcolm before the CPG even notices?”

    Quite likely i reckon if the Libs FAIL and miss both Braddon and Longman.

    And that would lead to a scary test for the electorate. They may have to decide if they want the reprehensibly nasty Dutton for PM or not??

    And many thanks to our William for all his efforts. 🙂

  21. “I guess Wayne is our comedy entertainment for tonight ”

    I reckon he is a comedy bot that William is experimenting with. 🙂

  23. “Wayne……………….you’re only running in 3, so you can’t win 4 out of 5”

    That’s Liberal maths for you. Wayne must have gone to the same primary school as Eleventy Joe Hockey. D

  24. I’m looking forward to Super Sunday too, Wayne. When Obrest Groupenfuhrer kartoffelkopf challenges Brian for the Reich leadership. …

  30. reposting

    Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 6:08 pm
    Comment #2738
    Opening comment of the bloke sitting beside Laura, wtte, “This is a political election.” Nearly snorted my drink.

  35. Oooo, I have some Lark single malt here …. and this is the internet, so the bottle is as big as we want, C@t 🙂

    My god, the suspense.

  37. Will Downer remain living in Adelaide if she loses, or hightail it back to Melbourne?

    According to Nicki Downer, Georgina has enrolled her kids in local schools (by local I am guessing down in town) and set for the foreseeable future – win or lose.

    Which no-one believes.

  42. Granny Annie says:
    <blockquote.
    I wonder who printed the Poorleene cutouts and how much they cost?
    James Ashby’s little printing business. A nice little earner.

  50. Interesting that the ABC and even Antony are silent on why the electoral enrolments are all up since 2016 election…

    I can tell you now, it is not due to population growth or the excitement of this “super Saturday”…

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