As Super Saturday dawns, The Australian brings us perhaps the two most heavy-duty seat polls yet published in Australia, with Newspoll surveying 1015 respondents in Longman and 1002 in Braddon between Tuesday and Thursday. In both cases Labor records a lead of 51-49, putting them at the high end for Labor’s polling record throughout the campaign. Labor is credited with a solid improvement on the primary vote compared with the 2016 election result, from 35.4% to 40%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 39.0% to 36%. This gives Labor the buffer it needs to deal with One Nation, up from 9.4% to 14%, and their stronger flow of what I presume are respondent-allocated preferences to the LNP. The Greens are on 5%, compared with 4.4% in 2016. In Braddon, the primary votes are Labor 40% (unchanged on 2016), Liberal 43% (up from 41.5%), the Greens 5% (down from 6.7%) and independent Craig Garland 8%.
As did the YouGov Galaxy polls for the News Corp tabloids last week, the poll asked respondents how they would vote if Anthony Albanese rather than Bill Shorten were leading the Labor Party, which in both cases would supposedly have lifted Labor to leads of 55-45. Candidate approval questions found 37% satisfied with Labor’s Susan Lamb in Longman and 47% dissatisfied, while Justine Keay in Braddon was on 42% and 41%. Trevor Ruthenberg’s military medal issues apparently haven’t registered, with 61% saying they would not influence their vote, 22% saying it made them less likely to vote LNP, and 16% of people who were presumably going to vote LNP anyway implausibly indicating they would be more likely to vote LNP.