Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Longman and Braddon

The biggest and presumably best polls for today’s by-elections are better for Labor than some, but still suggest Braddon and Longman could go either way.

As Super Saturday dawns, The Australian brings us perhaps the two most heavy-duty seat polls yet published in Australia, with Newspoll surveying 1015 respondents in Longman and 1002 in Braddon between Tuesday and Thursday. In both cases Labor records a lead of 51-49, putting them at the high end for Labor’s polling record throughout the campaign. Labor is credited with a solid improvement on the primary vote compared with the 2016 election result, from 35.4% to 40%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 39.0% to 36%. This gives Labor the buffer it needs to deal with One Nation, up from 9.4% to 14%, and their stronger flow of what I presume are respondent-allocated preferences to the LNP. The Greens are on 5%, compared with 4.4% in 2016. In Braddon, the primary votes are Labor 40% (unchanged on 2016), Liberal 43% (up from 41.5%), the Greens 5% (down from 6.7%) and independent Craig Garland 8%.

As did the YouGov Galaxy polls for the News Corp tabloids last week, the poll asked respondents how they would vote if Anthony Albanese rather than Bill Shorten were leading the Labor Party, which in both cases would supposedly have lifted Labor to leads of 55-45. Candidate approval questions found 37% satisfied with Labor’s Susan Lamb in Longman and 47% dissatisfied, while Justine Keay in Braddon was on 42% and 41%. Trevor Ruthenberg’s military medal issues apparently haven’t registered, with 61% saying they would not influence their vote, 22% saying it made them less likely to vote LNP, and 16% of people who were presumably going to vote LNP anyway implausibly indicating they would be more likely to vote LNP.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

148 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Longman and Braddon”

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  1. According to Victoria Rollison:

    Angry Sharkie voter just threw this at the Liberal volunteer. Don’t tell me Mayo voters aren’t engaged in the issues! #SuperSaturday

  3. Regarding Mayo and odds on favourites, I think Sharkie is one. Over a painfully long two month campaign about 1/3 of the votes have already been cast and Sharkie has a strong team on the ground. During that time I have not seen any poll published giving her less than a double digit lead. So she should be miles in front on the votes already cast. She has kept very composed and Downer has virtually given up in the last few days. She is getting all major preference flows. I do not see how she can lose, unless every poll was wrong by triple MOE.

    I predict Georgina Downer will concede defeat from campaign HQ in the Toorak Hotel ballroom before 9pm Melbourne time.

  4. As for Longman:
    “Trevor Ruthenberg’s military medal issues apparently haven’t registered, … and 16% of people who were presumably going to vote LNP anyway implausibly indicating they would be more likely to vote LNP.”

    They want an MP as honest as themselves?

  6. GG
    Thanks. What does Downer think he is proving? He should have borrowed the staff Lexus. I will go out on a limb and guess Sharkie was not in a Merc?

  8. Regional and rural seats have electors 25, 50 kms and more from town. Their grandpapents did everything by post in the old days.
    Not only can the farmer look after all his family votes, he can also help his workers get their voting out of the way.
    It has always amazed me how many workers voted for the old NP in these large electorates.
    Its a badge of honour to be so busy, rained in, harvesting etc to be able to take the day off. And you can do it after polling day when you know the state of the poll.

  9. I’m suspecting that this might be the LNP narrative after Labor’s victories today. They seem to have written of winning the seats!

    .@LNPQLD candidate @JamesMcGrathLNP: Governments don’t win seats off Oppositions at byelections. The real test is for @billshortenmp; he should be getting a massive swing here but he’s busy looking over his shoulder for @AlboMP.

    .@LNPQLD candidate @JamesMcGrathLNP: Governments don’t win seats off Oppositions at byelections. The real test is for @billshortenmp; he should be getting a massive swing here but he’s busy looking over his shoulder for @AlboMP.

  10. Greensborough Growler

    It is called manners mate our mob have them, yours not so much. Also helps if you are prepared to campaign in the electorate. Where was Bill yesterday? by the way.

  11. So William are you running a live twitch stream tonight? Looking at the ABC line up I’m just not sure I can stomach them.

  13. Greensborough Growler
    I’m suspecting that this might be the LNP narrative after Labor’s victories today. They seem to have written of winning the seats!

    .@LNPQLD candidate @JamesMcGrathLNP: Governments don’t win seats off Oppositions at byelections. The real test is for @billshortenmp; he should be getting a massive swing here but he’s busy looking over his shoulder for @AlboMP.

    Yep that is exactly what they should say it is the truth.

  14. Steelydan @ #63 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 1:09 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    I’m suspecting that this might be the LNP narrative after Labor’s victories today. They seem to have written of winning the seats!

    .@LNPQLD candidate @JamesMcGrathLNP: Governments don’t win seats off Oppositions at byelections. The real test is for @billshortenmp; he should be getting a massive swing here but he’s busy looking over his shoulder for @AlboMP.

    Yep that is exactly what they should say it is the truth.

    No it’s not, it’s bs. Put the blowtorch to the belly of Albo for 5 years, like Bill Shorten has had applied to him, and then get back to me.

  16. Notice how the media stayed schtum about the THREE Liberal candidates residing outside the electorates they are contesting? If they had been Labor candidates the media would have been all over them like a rash they couldn’t get rid of.

  17. Steelydan @ #62 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 1:09 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    I’m suspecting that this might be the LNP narrative after Labor’s victories today. They seem to have written of winning the seats!

    .@LNPQLD candidate @JamesMcGrathLNP: Governments don’t win seats off Oppositions at byelections. The real test is for @billshortenmp; he should be getting a massive swing here but he’s busy looking over his shoulder for @AlboMP.

    Yep that is exactly what they should say it is the truth.

    So, you’ve given up too. How sweet!

  19. “Where was Bill yesterday? by the way.”

    Bill didn’t need to hold his candidates hands, not like they were likely to commit a crime and falsely claim medals they never earned. What a disgusting grub trying to get votes with unearned medals. Sums up the LNP really lying cowards without integrity.

  22. Yes, how disgusting that Bill Shorten tries to maintain a Work/Life Balance between his family and his job as Opposition Leader!

  23. Bill Shorten!

    Apparently Mr Turnbull was missing me today. After nearly three months on the campaign trail in every by-election seat, I decided to be a dad first on school pick-up duties for my youngest daughter and her best friend. See you on the polling booths tomorrow!

  24. meher

    Did you read my post?

    Seriously? It’s a post on a blog not a text I need to write an essay on to pass a subject. I read it and replied with a sincere question.

    I have now gone back and read them again and my reply now is – have you read your posts? There is more hedging than an Adelaide Hills Estate. More waffle than Waffle &Coffee at Hindley St.

    Note to self; when meher waffles, scroll on by.

  25. (Stirling to Mt Peasant). I loved this error.

    Oh shoot! Ha! oooops

    I am, ofcourse, not from Stirling and only here due to the insistence of Mrs Katich (who is).

  30. You should have been a proctologist then and learnt how to deal with one arsehole at a time!

    But you already know about that

    Quote

  33. Greensborough Growler
    Bill Shorten!

    Apparently Mr Turnbull was missing me today. After nearly three months on the campaign trail in every by-election seat, I decided to be a dad first on school pick-up duties for my youngest daughter and her best friend. See you on the polling booths tomorrow!

    The Labor party has absolutely no shame, the cynicism is staggering. They new the questions would be asked why he was not in Longman. So they got him to pick up his children. When do you reckon the decision was made for Bill to pick up the children? I loved holding hands with my Dad with all the other children were around, NOT.

    Hope you your phone numbers are not on any telemarketers list you guys would be gold.

  35. Steelydan @ #83 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 2:09 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    Bill Shorten!

    Apparently Mr Turnbull was missing me today. After nearly three months on the campaign trail in every by-election seat, I decided to be a dad first on school pick-up duties for my youngest daughter and her best friend. See you on the polling booths tomorrow!

    The Labor party has absolutely no shame, the cynicism is staggering. They new the questions would be asked why he was not in Longman. So they got him to pick up his children. When do you reckon the decision was made for Bill to pick up the children? I loved holding hands with my Dad with all the other children were around, NOT.

    Hope you your phone numbers are not on any telemarketers list you guys would be gold.

    For someone who takes his name from a 70s brand of dildo it is quite amusing to see you lecturing others about having absolutely no shame.

  37. Funnily enough, Alexander Downer’s expensive petrolhead tastes are, IMHO, his one redeeming feature. I wouldn’t vote for him or his in a pink fit, mind.

  38. Although better than the absolutely rubbish 500 person single-seat polls, just increasing the sample size won’t necessarily be enough to overcome other issues with these polls. The 1000 person sample is almost guaranteed to include voters outside the electorate, despite best efforts to filter them (that may skew the randomness of the sample), and fatigued voters lying to pollsters. That said, the results seem inline with many expectations so we’ll see…

    Who will be on the ABC panel?

  40. Obviously not aware what the kids call a “growler”us old fuddy duddy’s would call a bowel movement. Hmmm Dildo or a messy …… think I will stick with the dildo handle.

  45. I don’t live in Mayo (I’m in the next electorate) but I’ve noticed the ABC is a big topic there.
    A big loss for Downer would be a good thing for the ABCs future.

  47. Is it just me, or did the whole thing with Georgina Downer appearing on TV being so pleased she remembered to vote for herself and having had her “Democracy Sausage”………….. just not sound right??

  48. Steelydan@1:04pm
    How condescending and arrogant of you to think that you have manners and we don’t. That shows yours manners. You must be staff of MT.

  50. I am being a little contrarian here, however with those Newspolls I believe the Liberals will win both Braddon and Longman, although not by much.

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