Super Saturday live

Live coverage of the counting for the Super Saturday by-elections (especially Braddon and Longman).

9.31pm. So much for the last entry. Patrick Gorman’s projected two-party vote is now 61.6%.

9.18pm. It’s only based on 1000 votes from Leederville and Northbridge, and suburbs further out might tell a different story, but the first two-party results in Perth suggest Patrick Gorman is headed for a fairly modest winning over the Greens. Conversely, Josh Wilson is outpolling the Greens two to one in Fremantle.

9.00pm. The Devonport PPVC result is also nothing special for the Liberals, so the door has closed on them in Braddon now.

8.55pm. First figures from Perth don’t bear out ReachTEL’s indication of a strong Liberal Democrats result, with more of the homeless Liberal vote going to independent Paul Collins.

8.53pm. Labor think they have Braddon in the bag, and the Burnie PPVC result that has just come through might explain why: the Liberals have copped an 8.7% hit on the primary vote there. Only Devonport and Queenstown PPVCs, plus postals, yet to come.

8.20pm. Labor still tracking for a winning margin approaching 5% in Longman.

8.13pm. The first PPVC in from Braddon is Ulvertstone, which has only 513 votes. It’s indeed a bit better for the Liberals than polling day votes, with their primary vote down by 2.1%, compared with 6.6% overall – although that’s still less than what they need.

8.10pm. So there has been no swing at all out of the polling day booths in Braddon, which have produced around 47,000 votes. That means the Liberals need to conjure a swing of around 7.5% out of probably 10,000 pre-polls and 7000 postals. Which doesn’t seem terribly likely.

8.02pm. Only the PPVCs to come from Braddon now. Polls have closed in Perth and Fremantle.

7.52pm. The projected Labor margin in Braddon is down to 2.0%. Two more polling day booths to report in Braddon, plus the four pre-poll voting centres, which could yet disgorge many thousands of votes. However, it seems to be agreed that it’s time to pull the plug on the LNP in Longman, and Georgina Downer is conceding defeat in Mayo.

7.40pm. A bit of dispute on the ABC as to whether the LNP is getting 70% or 60% of One Nation preferences in Longman. They will need for it to be very high indeed, and for something highly dramatic to happen in the pre-poll voting centres.

7.38pm. A very quick count in Braddon, where the momentum against Labor is levelling off. The AEC now projects a 2.6% Labor margin, but the potential for a different dynamic from the pre-poll voting centres means a measure of caution is still advised.

7.25pm. I’ve now got primary vote swings of 8.6% against Labor and 6.7% against Liberal in Braddon, with Craig Garland now barely into double figures. Labor’s projected two-party is continuing its slow decline, now at 2.2%. Given the trend as larger booths come in, and the unknown factor of the large pre-poll voting centres that will come in later in the evening, I wouldn’t be ready to call this.

7.24pm. We’ve now gone from around 7000 to around 14,000 primary votes counted in Longman, and the earlier trend is continuing: Labor holding steady, Liberal down around 14%, One Nation on around 15%. So looking like a surprisingly solid Labor win. No surprises in Mayo.

7.18pm. The situation is still a little elusive in Braddon: two-party projections point to a Labor win, but the primary count is well ahead of it, and the Labor primary vote there is beginning to sag. Bit of a lull in Longman counting, but the early indications are extremely strong for Labor.

7.12pm. Picture beginning to change in Braddon as larger centres do less well for Craig Garland. The ABC now has the Labor swing at 2.7%, which is down from over 4% earlier. The AEC computer is calling it for Labor, but given that trend, this should be treated with caution at the moment.

7.10pm. Count progressing a little quick than I’d figure in Longman, and here too Labor are doing quite a bit better than expected, holding their own on the primary vote while One Nation gouges double figures out of the LNP.

7.02pm. There are some reasonably serious primary vote numbers in now from Braddon, and that earlier picture is still holding: Craig Garland is on 16.3%, and Liberal are down more than Labor. The first two-party results suggest this is converting into a two-party swing to Labor.

6.50pm. Still only 1591 votes counted, but the early dynamic in Braddon is that Craig Garland is doing very strongly, coming in at the high teens, and he’s gouging the Liberals twice as heavily as Labor. If this kept up, Labor would win pretty handily on preferences from 35% of the primary vote.

6.40pm. The first two small booths in from Braddon are Moorleah (183 votes), where Craig Garland has a fairly spectacular 26.8%, and Waratah (139 votes), where he has a rather more modest 10.8%. For the time being though, he’s gouging double figures out of both major parties’ primary votes.

6pm. Polls have closed in Braddon and Longman, and will do so in half an hour in Mayo, and two hours in Perth and Adelaide. Results for small booths in Braddon should start coming in very shortly, but it will have to wait an hour or so for anything meaningful from Longman. For my own benefit more than anything, I have mocked up summarised booth results for Braddon and Longman which will, when there’s actual data to plug into them, will show booth-level primary vote totals, percentages and swings for the Labor, Liberal(-National), Greens, One Nation and Craig Garland (both the latter two are identified, wrongly, as “IND”). Other than that, the AEC publishes its own perfectly good booth-matched projected results (though not nearly enough besides), which can naturally be found at the official results page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

693 comments on “Super Saturday live”

  1. Confessions says Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 8:35 pm

    How smart was it to run an almost 3 month by-election campaign?

    Shades of Malcolm’s DD election that came back to bite him in the backside.

    What’s the chance he’ll try for third time lucky? 🙂

  2. I have to concede that Jennet really knows his politics. About 45 minutes ago he informed us that all five of the by-elections were happening because of S44 disqualifications! An outstanding ABC Canberra political correspondent indeed.

  3. Darren Laver says:
    Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 8:41 pm

    [Telling people that Georgina Downer WILL one day be your local Member of parliament is a bit presumptuous and arrogant.]

    Totally galling.

    Agree Darren!

  4. It looks as if you have to agree to terms and conditions to view your medical record to see if it is sane, my decision was to leave it if sane, opt out if not. Not going to agree to term and conditions, not going to leave the record unchecked. Opt out it is.

  5. What’s the chance he’ll try for third time lucky?

    I hope not! More PHON and sundry nothingburger Senate candidates with miniscule percentage of the vote to get elected.

  6. The CPG has been wrong on pretty much everything for the past few years. Yes, when the evidence comes out (as it has tonight) they’ll admit it (what else can they do) but memory is short and give it a few months and they’ll be back to old habits.

  7. ANTONBRUCKNER – No, national polling has shown to be generally reliable. Single seat polls are an entirely different story, not even worth the light of day if it’s below a 10% margin.

  8. The Longman result is likely in my opinion not going to turn out good for Malcolm Turnbull. According to the ABC Labor’s primary vote is up by 6.8% and 4.2% on the primaries and the Liberal National Party is down by 13%.

  9. Chris Bowen

    @Bowenchris
    Malcolm Turnbull said these by-elections were a referendum on leadership. Labor is winning four and the Libs can’t regain the formerly safe seat of Mayo. #goodonyoumalcolm

    5:05 PM – Jul 28, 2018

  10. general polling throughout a state or nationally tends to be accurate… but seat specific polling seems to be inaccurate…..most polls for Longman & Brandon were in the range 52/48 either side …more often 51/49 this is in the I think error margin of 4%>……… but for Mayo 59/41 was reasonably accurate….this also suggests the 2 to 3% national swing to Labor is on

  11. 7:58pm
    Antony Green calls the seat of Longman for Labor’s Susan Lamb
    The ABC’s veteran election analyst Antony Green has called the seat of Longman for Labor’s Susan Lamb.

    Her primary vote is up about 4 per cent and the Liberals’ primary vote is down almost 10 per cent.

    Liberal candidate Trevor Ruthenberg was on 25.6 per cent of first preferences and will be “lucky to reach 30 per cent” after postal votes.

    “That’s a very low first preference vote for the LNP,” Green says.

  12. [“That’s a very low first preference vote for the LNP,” Green says.]

    Antony Green gets paid for the sort of analysis? 😉

  13. JR
    “Downers concession speech was pretty good, she came across well. Perhaps her main emotion is relief.”
    Yeah, she doesn’t want to move to Adelaide. 🙁

  14. Canberra Boy “Georgina Downer concession speech gracious, humble and erudite. Expect to see more of her. Better than most speeches you get in these circumstances.”

    I agree. She thanked and consoled those who worked to get her elected. Much better than Malcolm’s speech in 2016, and he won.

  15. 7:14pm
    Antony Green calls Braddon for Labor
    The ABC’s veteran election analyst Antony Green has called the seat of Braddon for Labor.

    He says it is based on a 25-year-old formula the ABC has used to analyse results.

    “On that formula, this seat is ready to give away,” Green says.

    7:49

    Pyne also believes Braddon is still very much in play.

  16. Diogenes
    “I have been stitching someone up”
    It is a bit soon for ritual hari kari in Lib HQ isn’t it?

    After postals surely?

  17. Sally McManus

    @sallymcmanus
    I think it’s all over red rover for and Brett Whitely in Braddon #Supersaturday

    4:05 PM – Jul 28, 2018

  18. CF – I’m talking about AGGREGATE seat polling – not individual polling (which obviously can be well off). Not one poll picked the Labor margin in Longman. I do wonder if that has implications for the accuracy of the Federal polling.

  19. How could the mejia get it sooo wrong. Weeks of speculation amounts to nothing. What other more important issues could they have covered.

  20. “ALP at 55% now in Longman!”

    That has to hurt Malcolm. Cant dodge around numbers like that which reflect teh worst of th enational polling…..over months…….. 🙂

  21. Now watch the tories booby-trap everything they can, right up to the GE.

    CPG to double down and renew KillBill? Turnbull, unlucky, poorly advised, due for a
    win etc etc blah blah?

  22. [Antony Green said 70% to LNP a little while ago.]

    One Nation leaks to Labor much more than the Greens do to Liberal.

    Turnbull et al will regret boosting Pauline – they’re only getting 7 out of 10 of their voters back…

  23. Lol, Gary Spence, President of the Qld LNP said that Bill Shorten is under pressure.
    😆

    The Blue Kool Aid is strong in that one.

  24. According to the Queensland LNP president the voters are over s.44 issues and want to respect the results of the last election.

    Preparing their excuses not to refer their own?

  25. Greetings all, nice to see some wins for the good guys *grins*

    AntonBruckner11 @ 8.53pm
    Assuming the postals tighten the margins up a bit that last seat poll for Braddon of 51-49 could nail the actual result, although the Longman one looks to have undercooked Labor somewhat

    PS I’ve been thoroughly enjoying the UK heatwave – my corner of South Yorkshire had the first rain for over six weeks on Thursday (and a bit more today)

    #ukweatheronpb#

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