9.31pm. So much for the last entry. Patrick Gorman’s projected two-party vote is now 61.6%.
9.18pm. It’s only based on 1000 votes from Leederville and Northbridge, and suburbs further out might tell a different story, but the first two-party results in Perth suggest Patrick Gorman is headed for a fairly modest winning over the Greens. Conversely, Josh Wilson is outpolling the Greens two to one in Fremantle.
9.00pm. The Devonport PPVC result is also nothing special for the Liberals, so the door has closed on them in Braddon now.
8.55pm. First figures from Perth don’t bear out ReachTEL’s indication of a strong Liberal Democrats result, with more of the homeless Liberal vote going to independent Paul Collins.
8.53pm. Labor think they have Braddon in the bag, and the Burnie PPVC result that has just come through might explain why: the Liberals have copped an 8.7% hit on the primary vote there. Only Devonport and Queenstown PPVCs, plus postals, yet to come.
8.20pm. Labor still tracking for a winning margin approaching 5% in Longman.
8.13pm. The first PPVC in from Braddon is Ulvertstone, which has only 513 votes. It’s indeed a bit better for the Liberals than polling day votes, with their primary vote down by 2.1%, compared with 6.6% overall – although that’s still less than what they need.
8.10pm. So there has been no swing at all out of the polling day booths in Braddon, which have produced around 47,000 votes. That means the Liberals need to conjure a swing of around 7.5% out of probably 10,000 pre-polls and 7000 postals. Which doesn’t seem terribly likely.
8.02pm. Only the PPVCs to come from Braddon now. Polls have closed in Perth and Fremantle.
7.52pm. The projected Labor margin in Braddon is down to 2.0%. Two more polling day booths to report in Braddon, plus the four pre-poll voting centres, which could yet disgorge many thousands of votes. However, it seems to be agreed that it’s time to pull the plug on the LNP in Longman, and Georgina Downer is conceding defeat in Mayo.
7.40pm. A bit of dispute on the ABC as to whether the LNP is getting 70% or 60% of One Nation preferences in Longman. They will need for it to be very high indeed, and for something highly dramatic to happen in the pre-poll voting centres.
7.38pm. A very quick count in Braddon, where the momentum against Labor is levelling off. The AEC now projects a 2.6% Labor margin, but the potential for a different dynamic from the pre-poll voting centres means a measure of caution is still advised.
7.25pm. I’ve now got primary vote swings of 8.6% against Labor and 6.7% against Liberal in Braddon, with Craig Garland now barely into double figures. Labor’s projected two-party is continuing its slow decline, now at 2.2%. Given the trend as larger booths come in, and the unknown factor of the large pre-poll voting centres that will come in later in the evening, I wouldn’t be ready to call this.
7.24pm. We’ve now gone from around 7000 to around 14,000 primary votes counted in Longman, and the earlier trend is continuing: Labor holding steady, Liberal down around 14%, One Nation on around 15%. So looking like a surprisingly solid Labor win. No surprises in Mayo.
7.18pm. The situation is still a little elusive in Braddon: two-party projections point to a Labor win, but the primary count is well ahead of it, and the Labor primary vote there is beginning to sag. Bit of a lull in Longman counting, but the early indications are extremely strong for Labor.
7.12pm. Picture beginning to change in Braddon as larger centres do less well for Craig Garland. The ABC now has the Labor swing at 2.7%, which is down from over 4% earlier. The AEC computer is calling it for Labor, but given that trend, this should be treated with caution at the moment.
7.10pm. Count progressing a little quick than I’d figure in Longman, and here too Labor are doing quite a bit better than expected, holding their own on the primary vote while One Nation gouges double figures out of the LNP.
7.02pm. There are some reasonably serious primary vote numbers in now from Braddon, and that earlier picture is still holding: Craig Garland is on 16.3%, and Liberal are down more than Labor. The first two-party results suggest this is converting into a two-party swing to Labor.
6.50pm. Still only 1591 votes counted, but the early dynamic in Braddon is that Craig Garland is doing very strongly, coming in at the high teens, and he’s gouging the Liberals twice as heavily as Labor. If this kept up, Labor would win pretty handily on preferences from 35% of the primary vote.
6.40pm. The first two small booths in from Braddon are Moorleah (183 votes), where Craig Garland has a fairly spectacular 26.8%, and Waratah (139 votes), where he has a rather more modest 10.8%. For the time being though, he’s gouging double figures out of both major parties’ primary votes.
6pm. Polls have closed in Braddon and Longman, and will do so in half an hour in Mayo, and two hours in Perth and Adelaide. Results for small booths in Braddon should start coming in very shortly, but it will have to wait an hour or so for anything meaningful from Longman. For my own benefit more than anything, I have mocked up summarised booth results for Braddon and Longman which will, when there’s actual data to plug into them, will show booth-level primary vote totals, percentages and swings for the Labor, Liberal(-National), Greens, One Nation and Craig Garland (both the latter two are identified, wrongly, as “IND”). Other than that, the AEC publishes its own perfectly good booth-matched projected results (though not nearly enough besides), which can naturally be found at the official results page.
Do we have a ON pref flow in Longman? If it’s less than the newspoll boondoggle, what are the poor bastards at newspoll going to do?
Maybe Waynes LNP can win in Perth and Fremantle.
Shows, your caps is stuck.
sprocket_
Waggling fingers at ‘little old ladies’ , genius tactic from Lord Truffles of Wentworth.
William on Longman:
🙂
My local member Trent Zimmerman not looking happy. Good.
So now Super Saturday is just about done what will be the next “big test for Bill Shorten”?
Insiders tomorrow is going to be ínteresting. All that press credibility burnt on Get Bill and for what? Will we get excuses or silence.
I’m sitting here with a scotch in one hand and a big grin on my face. Yes it does feel like 2007.
Georgina born with a silver spoon up her date and voters hate her. Big swing to Sharkey.
Zimmerman, it looks like the LNP is going to poll better than a -4% swing which is the average for the government in by elections.
ABC coverage bad even by their standards.
At best, commercialism trying to create a contest to retain viewers — at worst, systemic bias for the LNP…
Anthony Green has all but called Longman to Labor with a swing TOO Labor of 4%.
😆
Antony Green calls Braddon for Labor
Make a mental adjustment in Braddon that Labor had donkey vote last time 2016 and Lib have it this time. That is probably a 1.2% or so help to Lib. Longman Labor has donkey vote both times.
Now Pyne is bleating about “Labor Lies” over health spending.
Mate get over yourself. You can’t claim record spending, when that spending hasn’t keep up with population growth. You can’t complain about being accused of cuts when you cut the projected spending, as worked out in the 2011 Federal-State health agreements that took account projected population growths. Oh, and CPG – do your fucking job and explain that!!! It’s not hard, or ‘contestable’ – it’s simple and straight forward. Fuckers!
Perhaps these byelections are like with S44 ones where the ineligible sitting members are re-elected.
Yeesh so typical!
Still 30mins left before polls close in Perth and Fremantle, and already the results look all but a foregone conclusion on the east coast!
frednk
Loved your comment in the Guardian today 🙂
Trent Zimmerman spinning like a top — and it is only 7:30 eastern!
All in all a good night so far. Husic looking happy on ABC. 🙂
Darren Laver,
As First Dog on the Moon expressed it eloquently today:
“The Footyshowification of the media is almost complete.”
In hindsight, it will look like a bad idea for the Coalition to have run. But when the margins were so small they basically had no choice.
William isn’t calling Braddon just yet.
Steve777 @ #156 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 4:27 pm
He is also my local MP and has never impressed me.
What I see is the LNP vote down everywhere. 🙂
Green has just said the swing in Braddon is falling,still a retain, so consistent with William.
Did you see the mood in the Mt Barker Liberal campaign room on the ABC cross? Like the AMP boardroom after the RC was announced.
I have been htv -ing for Sharkie. Many punters took only her card, I was told by the person whom i joined here for the 4-6pm shift.
I was supposed to scrutineer but paperwork wasn’t done.so am waiting outside for end of count. small booth. then dinner.
Finished. food now
[ I wouldn’t be ready to call this.]
William might get that job at ABC after all!
Coalition u-boat now settling on bottom of the ocean. No ballast left. Oxygen will run out in about April next year. Things are going to get nasty down there.
Darren Laver @ #101 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 4:04 pm
Did she say her commentary was ‘better’ than that of others, because she was paid to write?
Why Labor Wins tonight and in to the future.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1023139447901052928
“Green has just said the swing in Braddon is falling,still a retain, so consistent with William.”
Yup, things not really decided as yet but i’ll enjoy anyway for now in case things go pear shaped on postal and pre-poll later. 🙂
Confessions says Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 7:13 pm
I know many like to associate the Greens with Tasmania, but wasn’t the first Greens senator from WA?
The Greens really seem different parties. In WA they grew out of the nuclear disarmament movement and the fight over old growth forests. In Tasmania it seemed to be dams and forests. In NSW it appears that they were infiltrated by the SWP and CPA.
Zimmerman has said 4 times the average swing against the government is…..
Doesn’t he have anything else to say?
Countess Georgina von Downer is now going to stamp her foot and demand a SAFE seat, godammnit.
The Liberal candidate in Longman has been asked to change his CV from MP for Longman to former candidate for Longman.
These Longman figures looking bad for Dutton to hold Dickson… He’ll need the PMship to retain it now, otherwise he cannot be Opposition Leader without a seat.
So has Turnbull called in the cops yet?
Cant complain about a win, but there go the prospects of an early election…
did Pauline return to Australia for election day
did Pauline return to Australia for election day
John Reidy @ #52 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 7:39 pm
He could say he’s a homosexual!
The national polling has held up. Time to ignore individual seat polls.
GG. love your stability. Never a bedwetter.
Im getting 404 forbidden when i try to post??
[Cant complain about a win, but there go the prospects of an early election…]
Don’t be so sure — if Turnbull wants to stave off Dutton’s challenge at the end of the year, he might want to go early and try his luck — ie. nothing to lose for Turnbull…
So the Lib line from Zimmerman is that they haven’t had as large swings against them as could have happened and that means the they haven’t lost??
Hmmmmm……………
or not the 404 thing?? weird.
As the Liberals backpeddle from running a serious campaign in Mayo to just a trial run, someone should ask the real question – how much did the Liberals spend on the Mayo campaign? In nine weeks it must have been a fortune. Half a million? More? Sure it was only a trial run…