9.31pm. So much for the last entry. Patrick Gorman’s projected two-party vote is now 61.6%.
9.18pm. It’s only based on 1000 votes from Leederville and Northbridge, and suburbs further out might tell a different story, but the first two-party results in Perth suggest Patrick Gorman is headed for a fairly modest winning over the Greens. Conversely, Josh Wilson is outpolling the Greens two to one in Fremantle.
9.00pm. The Devonport PPVC result is also nothing special for the Liberals, so the door has closed on them in Braddon now.
8.55pm. First figures from Perth don’t bear out ReachTEL’s indication of a strong Liberal Democrats result, with more of the homeless Liberal vote going to independent Paul Collins.
8.53pm. Labor think they have Braddon in the bag, and the Burnie PPVC result that has just come through might explain why: the Liberals have copped an 8.7% hit on the primary vote there. Only Devonport and Queenstown PPVCs, plus postals, yet to come.
8.20pm. Labor still tracking for a winning margin approaching 5% in Longman.
8.13pm. The first PPVC in from Braddon is Ulvertstone, which has only 513 votes. It’s indeed a bit better for the Liberals than polling day votes, with their primary vote down by 2.1%, compared with 6.6% overall – although that’s still less than what they need.
8.10pm. So there has been no swing at all out of the polling day booths in Braddon, which have produced around 47,000 votes. That means the Liberals need to conjure a swing of around 7.5% out of probably 10,000 pre-polls and 7000 postals. Which doesn’t seem terribly likely.
8.02pm. Only the PPVCs to come from Braddon now. Polls have closed in Perth and Fremantle.
7.52pm. The projected Labor margin in Braddon is down to 2.0%. Two more polling day booths to report in Braddon, plus the four pre-poll voting centres, which could yet disgorge many thousands of votes. However, it seems to be agreed that it’s time to pull the plug on the LNP in Longman, and Georgina Downer is conceding defeat in Mayo.
7.40pm. A bit of dispute on the ABC as to whether the LNP is getting 70% or 60% of One Nation preferences in Longman. They will need for it to be very high indeed, and for something highly dramatic to happen in the pre-poll voting centres.
7.38pm. A very quick count in Braddon, where the momentum against Labor is levelling off. The AEC now projects a 2.6% Labor margin, but the potential for a different dynamic from the pre-poll voting centres means a measure of caution is still advised.
7.25pm. I’ve now got primary vote swings of 8.6% against Labor and 6.7% against Liberal in Braddon, with Craig Garland now barely into double figures. Labor’s projected two-party is continuing its slow decline, now at 2.2%. Given the trend as larger booths come in, and the unknown factor of the large pre-poll voting centres that will come in later in the evening, I wouldn’t be ready to call this.
7.24pm. We’ve now gone from around 7000 to around 14,000 primary votes counted in Longman, and the earlier trend is continuing: Labor holding steady, Liberal down around 14%, One Nation on around 15%. So looking like a surprisingly solid Labor win. No surprises in Mayo.
7.18pm. The situation is still a little elusive in Braddon: two-party projections point to a Labor win, but the primary count is well ahead of it, and the Labor primary vote there is beginning to sag. Bit of a lull in Longman counting, but the early indications are extremely strong for Labor.
7.12pm. Picture beginning to change in Braddon as larger centres do less well for Craig Garland. The ABC now has the Labor swing at 2.7%, which is down from over 4% earlier. The AEC computer is calling it for Labor, but given that trend, this should be treated with caution at the moment.
7.10pm. Count progressing a little quick than I’d figure in Longman, and here too Labor are doing quite a bit better than expected, holding their own on the primary vote while One Nation gouges double figures out of the LNP.
7.02pm. There are some reasonably serious primary vote numbers in now from Braddon, and that earlier picture is still holding: Craig Garland is on 16.3%, and Liberal are down more than Labor. The first two-party results suggest this is converting into a two-party swing to Labor.
6.50pm. Still only 1591 votes counted, but the early dynamic in Braddon is that Craig Garland is doing very strongly, coming in at the high teens, and he’s gouging the Liberals twice as heavily as Labor. If this kept up, Labor would win pretty handily on preferences from 35% of the primary vote.
6.40pm. The first two small booths in from Braddon are Moorleah (183 votes), where Craig Garland has a fairly spectacular 26.8%, and Waratah (139 votes), where he has a rather more modest 10.8%. For the time being though, he’s gouging double figures out of both major parties’ primary votes.
6pm. Polls have closed in Braddon and Longman, and will do so in half an hour in Mayo, and two hours in Perth and Adelaide. Results for small booths in Braddon should start coming in very shortly, but it will have to wait an hour or so for anything meaningful from Longman. For my own benefit more than anything, I have mocked up summarised booth results for Braddon and Longman which will, when there’s actual data to plug into them, will show booth-level primary vote totals, percentages and swings for the Labor, Liberal(-National), Greens, One Nation and Craig Garland (both the latter two are identified, wrongly, as “IND”). Other than that, the AEC publishes its own perfectly good booth-matched projected results (though not nearly enough besides), which can naturally be found at the official results page.
Laura Tingle in visible shock.
Cannot believe the Press Gallery was so out in their commentary…
Goldfish
Confessions
Even better is Garland recommends his voters preference Labor.
Am fascinated to note that PHON’s cardboard cut-outs appear to have improved their vote in Longman.
Hmm.
Laura, it is a “nasty shock” not just to the LNP, but for you and the press gallery
Braddon is now up to 10,000 votes (about 14% counted) with 52-48 to Labor. This must include assumptions about Galand’s preferences.
Swing is tiny, 0.37% to Labor.
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-22692-193.htm
Lizzie
I’m watching Sky and they have Pyne !Drink drink drink.
Keay now ahead by nearly 51-49 with 5.6% of 2PP counted in Braddon according SkyNews
Lizzie @ #98 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 5:03 pm
He’s a minor commentator in the overall scheme of things, and totally worth putting up with his poor presence to get Antony Green. No way would I watch any other channel on election night.
Refs absolutely slaughtering Parra with that Norman sin bin.
These results thus far in both Braddon and Longman on the AEC site look pretty promising for Labor. Should Labor win with a swing to them, I reckon Turnbull would have to be nervous about a Dutton challenge, and if Dutton wins such a challenge, the LNP will be in the wilderness for years.
ABC24 has called Braddon as an ALP retain … 55.8% to ALP
ABC computer calling Braddon for Labor. Projecting 55.8% TPP.
ALP retain.
Looks like Anthony has called Braddon by the stripe at the bottom of the screen.
Andrew,
ABC has called Braddon for Keay already on 10%+ of the vote counted.
Turnbull now has dicey choice — early election and unlikely to win — or wait until next year, and risk not suriving December challenge by Dutton…
Does anyone know if the pollsters have factored in the surge in enrolment from younger voters in their most recent polls?
How’s “Kill Bill” going tonight?
William is interpreting the same as Antony from the results in Braddon.
I can’t remember who posted in an earlier post a few days ago based on my request, translating QLD state election results, ALP will win Longman 53-47.
Wayne Swan was saying earlier that in state election PHONy got 24% vote.
Peter Dutton needs to worry about holding his seat first before thinking of the PMship, based on this evenings results.
The Green vote is down in Braddon. Isn’t Tas meant to be their state of preference?
GG
sorry to change subject somewhat. what is your take on the police investigating the Vic Labor campaign funds, which were already subject to obmudsman report and monies repaid etc.
Pyne is now pleading postal and prepoll votes to downplay the loss for Brian.
Bring on Super Sunday and #KillBrian
Reich Affairs Minister is already out on manoeuvres.
Wayne must be feeling pretty embarrassed right now.
What a great night for the “glorious LNP”.
Why is this shocking?
All national polls have shown a 2-4% swing to ALP for a year or more.
Seat polls have always been trash, yet they inform so much commentary.
The press gallery are dumb as dogsh*t or simply biased.
Yeah baby!!!
All those tender little things who couldn’t keep the faith should go to bed early with no dinner.
I’m on my second bottle!!!!!
ABC on line has already slated both Longman and Braddon as ALP Retain………too early just yet? One has a 6% plus swing and the other just under 2%. If this proves to be the case then one of the political leaders has certainly failed some kind of manipulated “test”…….
Confessions,
I live in Hobart, Greens are down because Bob and Co was the draw card and people talk about the black wiggle in a bad way down here. The greens don’t talk about green things anymore.
Greg Jennet looks desperately hoping that Antony is wrong.
[Peter BrentVerified account@mumbletwits
6m6 minutes ago
At midnight Probes’ll still reckon too close to call.]
Typical ABC false balance by Probyn. He’ll call it a “tie” as balance! Shameful.
The startling thing so far is the swing to Labor in Longman. Didn’t expect that. One Nation prefs last time to ALp, this time to Libs.
Greens are controlled by the watermelon faction and middle of the road voters are moving away from them.
Re postal votes, they always whittle away at the Labor 2PP in the days after the vote. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with any final 2PP under 51.
Ironic if the plebiscite sewed the seeds of Lib doom by mobilizing the youth vote. Dickheads.
All ABC faces looking glum.
Only happy person is Ed Husic MP!
So will Bill Shorten win by enough to hold off the challengers?
I’m sure the Canberra Press Gallery will wipe enough egg of their faces to let us know what we should think.
Early results from Mayo, and I do mean early, very embarrassing for G. Downer.
Fucking Speers is squizzing Wayne Swan about #KillBill.
CPG doubling down like the Black Knight in ‘The Holy Grail’…
ABC Computer calling Longman for ALP. Retain.
Green trying to talk himself out of it. Shadows of Bennelong 2007, when they could not believe the computer had done Uncle Howie in.
south:
Thanks for the insight. I agree the Black Wiggle’s leadership has not been a positive force for the Greens.
“I’m sure the Canberra Press Gallery will wipe enough egg of their faces to let us know what we should think.”
It’ll be on to the next “test” for Bill Shorten.
The Liberal mistake was to let an unplugged Malcolm Turnbull loose on the voters in Braddon/Longman.
In the main election, if he is still there, he will be hermetically sealed from the punters
To be fair, Tingle has appeared stern right from the very beginning of the broadcast.
Sharkie is going to be re-elected.
She certainly deserves to be after her track record as a local member.
Results looking like
ALP 4
CEN 1
LNP 0
[To be fair, Tingle has appeared stern right from the very beginning of the broadcast.]
True. She must have had a feeling that the gig was up!
Evening Bludgers!
I agree a bit 2007. Also what is with Jennet trying to second guess Anthony? Very strange , for someone who doesn’t watch much TV.
HI MOFOS,
LOOKS LIKE THE LIBERALS ARE GOING TO REGRET PRESELECTING A COMPULSIVE LIAR AS THEIR CANDIDATE IN LONGMAN.