Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A more or less entirely static result from Newspoll, highlighted if anything by slight movement from the major to the minor parties.

The latest Newspoll result from The Australian has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged from a fortnight ago at 51-49, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – to 38% in the Coalition’s case and 36% in Labor’s – with both the Greens and One Nation up a point, to 10% and 7% respectively. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Bill Shorten unchanged at 32% and down one to 56%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-31 to 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from an as yet unreported sample size that would have been between 1600 and 1700.

UPDATE: The sample was 1644. Respondents were also asked if they approved or disapproved of the fact that the government has granted residency to less than 165,000 new migrants this year, compared with a cap of 190,000. Seventy-two per cent did so, compared with 23% who disapproved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

505 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-31 to 48-29.

    Not what Bill Shorten would like to see on the eve of Super Saturday.


  2. Al Pal says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 8:02 am

    We just might see a bit more of Albo in the coming weeks. Out there prosecuting ALP policy, of course and setting out his vision- which also of course , reflects Bills positions and vision.

    Is this really what the liberal party has been reduced to. Trying to promote a leadership challenge that can’t happen.

  3. Shelter WA
    ‏@shelterwa

    Follow @shelterwa

    Remote communities have been subjected to govt policies & administration that has reduced Aboriginal agency and used the removal of sustaining programs to achieve government ends.

    The Hon. Fred Chaney on First Australians and dysfunctional government
    https://cranlana.org.au/fred-chaney-cranlana/

    What we actually have, however, is ever increasing centralisation of top down command and control type decision making rather than a decentralised and regional approach which provides for place-based decision making in partnership with local communities.

    The current Minister, Nigel Scullion, at Barunga just a fortnight ago in responding to demands for a national voice described his current centralising role in stark terms. He said a voice to parliament was “all fluff” compared with the power his job holds.

    “It’s my job, mate. It’s my job,” he told Sky News. “I have the money and I have the capacity, not me, but the job has the capacity to allocate funds, to create policy, to create change and to do stuff … Now if you don’t have that you’re just fluffing around the edges. You don’t want a voice to parliament, you don’t want a third chamber … it is nothing next to the decision-making, the policymaking, that comes with my office”.

    Asked whether he was proposing putting the powers of his job in the hands of indigenous Australians, Senator Scullion said: “Absolutely. Because they would run their own thing.”

    He knew from his interactions with Aboriginal people “that part of what they want is more control. So this should be a part of the conversation, a wider conversation.”

    He had not “specifically” discussed his idea with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. “My utterances are not necessarily the views of government,” he said.

    It may not be a policy the Government would admit to, but it is what the Government does. The evidence of the centralist approach directed by a Minister is seen in the repetitive disruptive interventions designed and imposed by central governments, be they Commonwealth, State, or Territory.

  4. doyley @ #139 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 11:44 am

    Good morning all,

    I think it can be taken as a given that Shorten and labor are well aware of the ” immigration angst ” that is simmering in this country atm and which is being flamed by Dutton and co.

    How should labor respond ?

    Shorten is speaking at the ACTU national conference this week and I would not be surprised if he framed the migration issue around overseas workers entering the country on temporary work visas.

    The last few days Shorten has been clear and focused when questioned during pressers on the immigration issue and rinses and repeats the fact 1.6 million overseas workers are here on such visas.

    Tie this fact in with the high level of youth unemployment, fall off in apprenticeships , the need to fully fund TAFE etc etc etc and Shorten can argue for a significant tightening of these visas to ensure ” Australian workers first ” while not getting goaded down the rabbit hole being dug by the government.

    Train Australians, give them first crack at jobs and restrict the inflow of temporary work visas by 30,000 yo 40, 000 a year and labor can offer a practical and real world alternative to simply saying cut permanent migration.

    Frame the debate around jobs and training and putting Australian workers first and I think labor may be able to turn the debate into a winner or, at the very least, not a loser for them.

    Cutting the numbers of ” evil foreigners ” entering the country and making sure Australians are trained and first in line for jobs all wrapped up in the one parcel.

    We shall see.

    Given his entrenched unpopularity, maybe Labor ought to limit Bill Shortens exposure and rather promote their policies using the shadow ministers.

  5. P1

    Yes but in the lower emission countries it is the upper crust who we take as migrants.

    And ar do you think your carbon footprint in Australia has increased over what it would have been had you remained in the USA? If so, why?

    It is an interesting debate, I wonder if there have been studies done on this. But either way, it points to our wasteful lifestyle rather than migration per se.

  6. There are a lot more words I can think of……..

    Seth Abramson
    Seth Abramson
    @SethAbramson
    ·
    9h
    Just two weeks after the massacre of journalists in Maryland, Trump says he *understands* the hatred of journalists because they’re “the enemy of the people.” The man is grotesque, despicable, risible, troglodytic, traitorous, obscene… I’m out of words. Simply put, he’s a turd.

  7. An immigrant may have twice the carbon footprint here than in their home country… But won’t they also have half as many children?

  9. Labor leader Bill Shorten has unleashed a stinging rebuke of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull for ignoring the voters – and concerns – of one of Australia’s most needy regions.
    It is now more than 300 days since the PM set foot in the Northern Territory, a time frame which, the opposition leader told Nine.com.au, indicates the government’s indifference to the challenges being faced in the Top End.

    “I just wish he spent as much time listening to Territorians as he did listening to the big banks and the top end of town,” Mr Shorten said.
    “The Territory isn’t fly-over country for me, it’s just as important as any other part of Australia.”

    …Splashed in large font across its front page, the newspaper called Mr Turnbull a “missing-in-action” prime minister who “simply does not care”.

    The 2016 census counted 228,833 residents of the NT, an increase of 8 percent since the last national survey in 2011.

    But despite the growing numbers, Australia’s deepest levels of poverty are found in the Northern Territory, and other key statistics which indicate the region’s poor socio-economic health make for bleak reading.

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/07/16/10/35/pm-malcolm-turnbull-accused-of-neglecting-northern-territory

  10. Bill Shorten isn’t making any governing decisions but somehow he has managed to alienate 56% of voters to the point that they actively disapprove of him. He faces an unpopular government yet he can only persuade 32% of Australians to actively approve of him. Bill Shorten’s public standing in Australia is worse than Donald Trump’s public standing in the United States. How does that happen? Bill Shorten doesn’t do or say anything controversial. He just seems to have mysterious voter repelling qualities.

  11. Zoidlord @ #158 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 12:23 pm

    Hey @Rex

    Are you skipping your school lunch to post crap on PB?

    Well it’s only logical to accentuate your strengths and hide your weaknesses don’t you think ?

    Who amongst the Labor front bench are good communicators ?

    Mark Butler ?

    Albo ?

    Penny Wong ?

    Surely they’d be better out front selling the message rather than the very unpopular Shorten, who by the way, many voters clearly aren’t listening to.

  12. Nicholas @ #160 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 12:27 pm

    Bill Shorten isn’t making any governing decisions but somehow he has managed to alienate 56% of voters to the point that they actively disapprove of him. He faces an unpopular government yet he can only persuade 32% of Australians to actively approve of him. Bill Shorten’s public standing in Australia is worse than Donald Trump’s public standing in the United States. How does that happen? Bill Shorten doesn’t do or say anything controversial. He just seems to have mysterious voter repelling qualities.

    Shortens public standing worse than Trump. That is remarkable.

  13. Bill Shorten’s public standing in Australia is worse than Donald Trump’s public standing in the United States. How does that happen?

    Well, I admit, it has taken a laser-like focus of the Coalition government and their Kill Bill strategy, plus Royal Commissions a go go, a cool $100 Million of taxpayers’ money all up, a politicised Treasury trying to harpoon any Labor initiative, the concerted efforts of the Canberra Press Gallery for the last 5 years, and the Murdoch media and the shockjock shills in particular, but, there you go, it has been proven to work! Kind of.

    Not to mention you Greens and your Lib-Lab same same malarkey. 🙂

  14. Wrong question is being asked. The question is if Turnbull is so popular compared to Shorten how come the Libs aren’t a mile in front?

  15. With nearly all of the msm focused on Kill Bill, it is not really that surprising. They do their masters bidding relentlessly to one aim to bring him down, as he fights for all Australians, not just a few very rich and powerful ones. He cares about the interests of citizens of Australia, they care about the interests of their overlords.

  16. Lovey @ #155 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 12:22 pm

    P1

    Yes but in the lower emission countries it is the upper crust who we take as migrants.

    You are just making this up as you go along, aren’t you? Have a look down the list of countries I linked, and see just how low the average carbon footprint is if you are from any of the countries from which the vast bulk of our skilled migrants originate.

  17. Interesting that of the 1,644 “people” polled, 72% supported the reduction in immigration numbers and 23% opposed

    Is this confirmation of racist Australia?

    No, it’s confirmation that people don’t like inadequate public services and infrastructure and unaffordable housing. If those deficiencies were addressed first, perhaps a high population growth rate could be sustained. But Australia’s population policy over the last four decades has not been integrated with any significant consideration of the impacts of high population growth rates on the natural environment, house prices, rents, public infrastructure, and public services. The policy has simply been to give big business what they want (an ever expanding market for their products). That is not a sustainable policy and it is not surprising that it is not popular.

    Population growth rates of 1.5 to 2.0 percent per year can work if you are putting a major effort into urban design, affordable housing, public services, environmental responsibility. But our governments have engaged in decades of neglect of those issues.

  18. … Luckily, more mature debate on the issue finally seems to have begun.

    I don’t think that Australia has had a ‘mature debate’ about anything for a very long time, certainly not since the time that Tony Abbott became Opposition Leader (late 2009) and probably longe than that.

  19. Gary @ #164 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 12:34 pm

    Wrong question is being asked. The question is if Turnbull is so popular compared to Shorten how come the Libs aren’t a mile in front?

    Good question.

    I’d say the social destruction and dysfunction of the Abbott/Turnbull Govt is just as much a turn off for voters as Bill Shorten is, hence the closeness of the 2PP.

    I think with a different leader, Labor would be a mile in front on the 2PP, but they’re not for changing even though it risks election defeat. Labor will forge on with Shorten.

  20. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/16/labor-mp-michael-danbys-preselection-meeting-undemocratic-candidate-says

    A candidate vying to replace the Labor MP Michael Danby has blasted Danby’s decision to call a factional meeting to anoint a successor, warning it has “no resemblance to a democratic process”.

    Councillor Mary Delahunty has warned the meeting, scheduled for Thursday, will allow a “select group” of Danby’s supporters to pick his replacement without a full local preselection.

    The meeting will come ahead of a national executive meeting on Friday that is expected to confirm federal intervention to select candidates in vacant Victorian seats.

  21. So where does immigration cross over to Refugees?

    As I put last week, in visiting one of my wife’s relatives with CP, the staffing level at the facility where he is cared for seemed most adequate – including their caring attitude and inter action – but that staff was exclusively of Asian extraction including Indian

    There was no “Australian” in sight

    How many of our Regional and remote locations are serviced by medical practitioners who are not “Australians”?

    Then we have seasonal agricultural industries

    You could continue to who staffs our Convenience Stores, who drives our taxis – and given the importance of education to our economy, how many are here as students and making a living to support their life style whilst studying?

    As a kid growing up we lived in close proximity to Market Gardens abutting a river where immigrants from Italy were employed – their children having no English and the subject of racist taunts and fights in the school yard no doubt inspired by household post WW2 prejudice against a Nation who were the enemy

    How many of our politicians carry non anglicised names – before we get to the likes of Guy who has changed his name?

    These are just some of the questions

  22. Gary I think it is so sad that the Liberals have been reduced to trying to promote a leadership challenge that can’t happen. The party of Menzies reduced to this. In the work of their new hero, the great orange “sad”.

  23. https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/controversial-councillor-intaj-khan-convicted-over-lack-of-disclosure-20180716-p4zrq7.html

    A wealthy Melbourne councillor has been convicted and fined $23,000 over his failure to disclose his property and commercial interests in Melbourne’s west.

    In the Sunshine Magistrates’ Court on Monday, Intaj Khan, a Wyndham councillor and aspiring Labor politician, was convicted on eight counts of failing to disclose interests, as required by the Local Government Act.

  25. Nicholas @ #167 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 12:40 pm

    Interesting that of the 1,644 “people” polled, 72% supported the reduction in immigration numbers and 23% opposed

    Is this confirmation of racist Australia?

    No, it’s confirmation that people don’t like inadequate public services and infrastructure and unaffordable housing. If those deficiencies were addressed first, perhaps a high population growth rate could be sustained. But Australia’s population policy over the last four decades has not been integrated with any significant consideration of the impacts of high population growth rates on the natural environment, house prices, rents, public infrastructure, and public services. The policy has simply been to give big business what they want (an ever expanding market for their products). That is not a sustainable policy and it is not surprising that it is not popular.

    Population growth rates of 1.5 to 2.0 percent per year can work if you are putting a major effort into urban design, affordable housing, public services, environmental responsibility. But our governments have engaged in decades of neglect of those issues.

    Indeed.

    Decades of Liberal and Labor Govts have ignored the necessities of harmonious society.

  27. Simon² Katich® @ #157 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 12:22 pm

    An immigrant may have twice the carbon footprint here than in their home country… But won’t they also have half as many children?

    Not until they assimilate, which may more than one generation. From https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/padr.12037 …

    Some studies have demonstrated that immigrants maintain the childbearing patterns dominant in their country of origin (Coleman 1994; Garssen and Nicolaas 2008), whereas others have shown that, over time, immigrant fertility behavior increasingly resembles that of natives in the destination country (Andersson 2004). However, immigrants moving from high‐fertility to low‐fertility countries tend to have larger families than the natives in the destination country (Milewski 2010b).

    And perhaps not even then …

    The existence of a minority subculture indicates that populations of immigrant background may preserve values, norms, and attitudes toward family and fertility that are common in their countries of origin (Milewski 2010b).

  29. Lizzie, regarding mitochondrial- in short yes

    How far back can you trace your maternal line? To your mother? Your grandmother? How about your maternal great-great-great-grandmother? Whether you know your maternal-line genealogy back ten generations or none at all, you can discover the history of your ancestors going back tens of thousands of years. Their story is in your DNA — your mitochondrial DNA, to be precise.

    Each generation, mothers pass down their mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) to their children. Both their daughters and their sons inherit mtDNA, but only women pass it on. As a result, you inherited your mtDNA from the long, unbroken line of women who make up your maternal line.

    Researchers study the genetic markers in mtDNA to trace the histories of our maternal lines. Using these markers, they can identify maternal haplogroups, families of maternal lineages that descend from the same woman.

    In fact, they’ve discovered that we are all direct maternal-line descendants of a single woman who lived in eastern Africa between 150,000 and 200,000 years ago! As her daughters and their daughters migrated out of the cradle of modern humans, they branched out into different groups that crossed Africa and the globe. Many of these migrations can be traced using haplogroups.

  31. Rex says-
    Good question.
    I’d say the social destruction and dysfunction of the Abbott/Turnbull Govt is just as much a turn off for voters as Bill Shorten is, hence the closeness of the 2PP.
    I think with a different leader, Labor would be a mile in front on the 2PP, but they’re not for changing even though it risks election defeat. Labor will forge on with Shorten.

    Rex, governments lose elections rather than oppositions win elections. So while Labor has the better policies they could elect Daffy Duck as their leader and still win. If anything this poll shows it is NOT about the leader.

  32. frednk @ #172 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 12:45 pm

    Gary I think it is so sad that the Liberals have been reduced to trying to promote a leadership challenge that can’t happen. The party of Menzies reduced to this. In the work of their new hero, the great orange “sad”.

    Didn’t I read somewhere that a simple majority of the Labor caucus is enough to throw the Rudd rules out and bring on a leadership ballot… ?

    No matter anyway as Labor aren’t for changing.

  34. Pegasus @ #169 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 12:44 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/16/labor-mp-michael-danbys-preselection-meeting-undemocratic-candidate-says

    A candidate vying to replace the Labor MP Michael Danby has blasted Danby’s decision to call a factional meeting to anoint a successor, warning it has “no resemblance to a democratic process”.

    Councillor Mary Delahunty has warned the meeting, scheduled for Thursday, will allow a “select group” of Danby’s supporters to pick his replacement without a full local preselection.

    The meeting will come ahead of a national executive meeting on Friday that is expected to confirm federal intervention to select candidates in vacant Victorian seats.

    Oo er, retiring sitting MP wants to get together with others to discuss who might be best placed to replace him, prior to Admin Committee meeting. And the lack of a full local preselection stuff was canvassed and explained in detail yesterday.

    Here you go, Pegasus, let me cut and paste it for you 🙂

    If a deal can be negotiated between the various factions and sub-factions on the three federal seats and Mr Mulino and Ms Garrett’s future, the arrangement would be rubber-stamped by the party’s powerful national executive this month.

    It would also mean party members in both Jagajaga and Macnamara, who have not voted in preselections since the 1990s, would again miss out on open ballots to choose their candidates.

    One senior figure from the party’s right said it might be a price worth paying for internal stability.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/andrews-faces-backlash-over-garrett-s-comeback-plan-20180713-p4zrdv.html

    You’re welcome. 🙂

  35. Not all migrants come from countries with high fertility rates.

    An immigrant from, for example, China, probably won’t have only half the children they would have had if they had not emigrated.

  39. This guy forgot he wasn’t on SkyNews with zero viewers to complain about him…

    ‘Sky News and Fox Sports presenter Greg Thomson has been stood down from the broadcaster pending an investigation into a foul-mouthed rant at a charity function.

    Thomson was hosting a charity lunch for disability support group Inala in front of 400 corporate guests at the Four Seasons Hotel in Sydney last Friday. Tickets to the event cost $270.

    He was filmed swearing and yelling at attendees before being booed and having the microphone taken off him by an organiser.’

  40. Mitochondrial DNA was used to positively identify the remains of King Richard III via 2 living descendants of his sister.

  42. Waters could be the difference in gaining at least a couple of HoR seats. Macnamara and Batman are in play. Poor Ged has been abandoned by Albo and his lurch to the right.

  43. Rex Douglas @ #188 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 12:59 pm

    Yes I’ve mentioned previously that Waters should be given a go. Very bright, smart, articulate and engaging.

    Fine – let’s see you canvas that subject, instead of continually bleating about Shorten.

    Surely there are enough Greens on here to get up a decent debate on the issue?

  46. “Our immigration program is being run better than ever because we have secured our borders”

    What does that statement convey?

    In regards “Preferred pm”, the simple fact is that one carries the title and gravitas of pm, the other measure being speculation as pm

    Hence, to me at least, the fact that half the population do not thing the actual pm is not doing a good job is the measure

    If half the people think you are doing a poor job how the hell are you going to be re-elected?

    Bear in mind also that the polling COMBINES the Liberal Party and National Party vote

    What is Liberal Party polling?

    What is National Party polling?

    We know the polling for every other Party

  47. “Shortens public standing worse than Trump. That is remarkable.”

    What’s remarkable is your inability to grasp the basic tenets of opinion polling. This false analogy is worse than comparing apples and oranges. It’s comparing apples and horse manure.

    The US system has an executive president with no opposition leader. That’s one of many reasons why comparing an Australian opposition leader to a US president is utterly meaningless and specious.

    I could go on. But Rex isn’t worth the effort of a rational discussion.


  48. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 12:54 pm

    …

    Didn’t I read somewhere that a simple majority of the Labor caucus is enough to throw the Rudd rules out and bring on a leadership ballot… ?

    Your not the only one that writes nonsense; the press have posted there fair share of nonsense column inches; all nicely supplied by the Liberal party for reprinting. It really is sad that they have nothing worthwhile to say.; both the press core and the Liberal party.

  49. Okay, I’m confused.

    If Mitochondrial DNA is passed from mother to daughter unchanging from one generation to the next, how does it help fill in details of a person’s ancestry?

    I mean, it can tell you your great-great-great-…-great grandmother was Scandinavian or whatever, but how can it tell what other bits and pieces have been mixed in along the way?

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