The latest Newspoll result from The Australian has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged from a fortnight ago at 51-49, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – to 38% in the Coalition’s case and 36% in Labor’s – with both the Greens and One Nation up a point, to 10% and 7% respectively. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Bill Shorten unchanged at 32% and down one to 56%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-31 to 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from an as yet unreported sample size that would have been between 1600 and 1700.
UPDATE: The sample was 1644. Respondents were also asked if they approved or disapproved of the fact that the government has granted residency to less than 165,000 new migrants this year, compared with a cap of 190,000. Seventy-two per cent did so, compared with 23% who disapproved.
PhoenixRed
Agreed.
I wonder if observing Trump’s conduct this week alone, would wake up some people?
Ante Meridian @ #63 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 9:39 am
Me too. Luckily, more mature debate on the issue finally seems to have begun.
http://scanlonfoundation.org.au/socialcohesion2017/
Welcome to the Mapping Social Cohesion 2017 microsite, where we present the findings of the tenth Scanlon Foundation national survey, conducted in June-July 2017. These findings build on the knowledge gained through the nine earlier surveys (2007, 2009-2016) which provide, for the first time in Australian social research, a series of detailed surveys on social cohesion, immigration and population issues.
The survey is a major contribution to the systematic monitoring of Australian opinion and provides the opportunity to look back over ten years, allowing us to perceive the changes in Australian society.
This microsite presents the highlights of the survey results in the five chapters presented below. For a full understanding of the survey findings, you are invited to download the full report by clicking here.
Full report: http://scanlonfoundation.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/ScanlonFoundation_MappingSocialCohesion_2017.pdf
Barney,
A small correction. Australia’s fertility rate is below replacement level, so our population will not get bigger ‘no matter what’. It will only get bigger if we have enough migrants to overcome the shortfall, which is a choice we make, not an inevitability.
Lovey @ #100 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 10:36 am
Don’t be absurd.
Victoria says:
Monday, July 16, 2018 at 10:40 am
PhoenixRed
Agreed.
I wonder if observing Trump’s conduct this week alone, would wake up some people?
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Even the Queen has Trump pegged
Ante Meridian @ #104 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 7:43 am
If we stopped migration now our population would continue to grow for a couple of decades before stabilising.
PhoenixRed
Good one!
Ante Meridian @ #104 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 10:43 am
Not by enough. Australia should target a fertility rate of exactly 50% replacement level. The other 50% can be made up of immigrants. That would be fair.
Though also, I think Big-D’s actual point was more nuanced than you’ve given credit for. The fertility rate in first-world countries is lower because economic pressures and resource constraints make it difficult/costly to have a child. If you were to reverse or remove some of those pressures by curbing immigration to the point where negative population growth was possible, the fertility rate would increase and we’d still end up with net population growth.
Not impressed with PvO in The Australian. Didn’t read his article, but the intro is enough.
“Labor faces unenviable choice. Rolling a leader or going into the next election…etc etc.”
The more pressing debate of how to fix our structurally rotting political system remains in the too hard basket. You cant avoid or fix problems without functioning politics.
As for population growth; what would a Coalition government do when GDP growth grinds to a halt? I guarantee you they will not raise taxes. It will be open season on what the IPA have been gunning for.
And I hold to my earlier point the other day, reducing immigration on its own will not save the environment from ongoing degradation. It wont even slow it down without a change in how we are governed.
Musk reminding us that he is a plutonium grade sociopath.
Elon Musk calls British diver in Thai cave rescue a ‘pedo’ in baseless attack
Barney in Go Dau @ #107 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 10:46 am
Not much. We wouldn’t even reach 26 million.
Is there anyone who has knowledge of the tricky problem of protecting the funds of those with a bipolar condition without impinging on their autonomy? The danger of overspending during their money phase is well known but the major banks only offer a joint account requiring two signatures as a solution. Neither of us really want to go down this route ( parent/ 40 yr old offspring with dependants ) and because everything is stable at the moment but since it concerns the proceeds of a house sale, I am nervous.
A term deposit with a credit union was one possibility .
Simon K
That’s the core of the matter, IMO. Population figures, seen in a vacuum, don’t mean much.
Vic……….you are probably right that migrants can be as racist as anyone, but it strikes me it is the most recent arrivals who seem most strident in their ‘shut the door’ desire.
Whether from Delhi, Derby or Durban, when you hear some of these people vent on talk-back, they are the ones who seem the most harsh when it comes to other migrants – their own family members wishing to join them – excepted of course.
I think a lot of the angst, when the Liberals were talking about toughening the English language requirements, came from the off-spring of parents who arrived way back when getting off the boat they could not speak a word of English.
In those days it seems anyone who could breathe was welcome in Oz, and being able to speak English was a bonus.
The country has prospered despite/because of this regardless.
SK,
You are right that reduced immigration on its own won’t save the environment. But ever-increasing population doesn’t help.
a r @ #109 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 10:51 am
In fact, the opposite tends to be the case. The higher your countries per-capita GDP, the lower its fertility. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility …
Barney,
Thanks for that response to my quandary. It might well be a losing nation’s chauvinism. In which case, I wonder what characterisation the Belgian team got in the UK media after shutting out the local heroes for 3rd place. If this was the Olympics, England would not even get a spot on the ceremony podium.
Quasar – have you investigated using a trust arrangement?
And in the interests of transparency, I’m an Anglo-Australian whose ancestors are Australian for umpteen generations on both sides. (Well, maybe not umpteen, but a few anyway. I’m not really into looking up my ancestry, so don’t know exactly.)
Make of that what you will.
Ante Meridian,
I reckon we are almost all mongrels. I certainly am.
SK,
And as the Patrician of Ankh-Morpork is fond of saying, “alloys are stronger”.
ar
‘Though also, I think Big-D’s actual point was more nuanced than you’ve given credit for. The fertility rate in first-world countries is lower because economic pressures and resource constraints make it difficult/costly to have a child.’
Cost is certainly a pressure. (There is a faddish move in wealthier circles now for women to have more than two children – presumably by way of a status symbol.) Other considerations aside, there is one consistent trend over time, over place and over cultures. When women become educated, become independent economically, and gain control over their bodies there is always a plunge in fertility rates. It turns out that being pregnant twelve times, giving live birth ten times, and struggling to raise ten children is only very, very rarely the first choice of most women.
The result is nearly always that the birth rate falls below the replacement rate.
Simon Ketch,
My wife recently got test results from her ancestry.com DNA sample, and was surprised that a couple regions of her origins were totally outside of her previous knowledge of the family tree going back about a half dozen generations. I have scant interest in my roots, and the DNA test isn’t cheap.
Since Australians are clearly NOT going to reduce their per capital environmental footprint (it is increasing, not falling), and since that footprint is among the very highest in the world, the fewer Australians the better for the global environment.
This means that the ideal for the global environment AND for the Australian environment would be a negative net migration rate.
From a strictly environmental point of view, ZERO would be a good start.
But, given that we have a political combination of vested Ponzi schemers and assorted virtue signallers who do not care a toss about the horrific consequences of global warming on all of humanity, a reasonable compromise would be to have a net migration target of, say, 50,000 a year, ALL of whom are refugees.
We got the dna test done as well. I’m about 99% British and Irish and French, back to William the Conqueror, and 1% Jewish!
Quasar
Bank on it: Have one bank account for bills such as rent and utilities, and leave the checkbook for that at home. Consider setting up email notifications to a trusted person in case of any unusual activity. Establish a separate account for personal expenses and keep just enough funds in it for one month. If you opt for a debit card, make sure it’s set up to deny any overdraft spending.
Protect your credit: Contact the credit reporting agencies—Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion—to lock your account so that any requests for a new credit card or line of credit will be refused. You can also have the agencies email a trusted family member any time a credit check is performed.
Asset management: Consider keeping ownership of assets such as a house in the name of the partner without bipolar, to protect it from the claims of creditors. You might also establish a trust that requires the approval of co-trustees for any spending. “This means giving up partial control of your assets, but gives you protection from yourself, assuming your co-trustee can tell when you are manic and when you are not,” says McQuilken.
Family hold back: McQuilken recommends that relatives of someone with bipolar not cosign loans. Also, be aware that loaning money or paying off debts may only enable the overspending to continue.
All of these studies have found that a high level of skilled migration is positive for the country.
As they have a vested interest in doing so, no doubt. I mean, we could train our own citizens instead. Just a thought.
Although, I get that there are certain individuals who have such unique talents and gifts that their contribution to our society would be of a positive benefit, however, it is the case that we are more than capable of training our own highly skilled world beaters:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/maths-prodigy-comes-home-to-establish-5-million-world-class-maths-centre-20180711-p4zqqr.html
I’d like to know how these recent DNA tests work. I feel there may be a certain amount of gimmickry.
‘Quasar says:
Monday, July 16, 2018 at 11:00 am
Is there anyone who has knowledge of the tricky problem of protecting the funds of those with a bipolar condition without impinging on their autonomy? ‘
This is an impossible ask, IMO. The following may be relevant to your circumstances.
In a somewhat parallel case concerning a person very close to our family, a car accident resulting in ABI, along with a variable ability to survive in the dog-eat-dog world, attracted a very large third party insurance payout. In this case the Public Trustee stepped in. There are some base money flows that are more or less automatic. All other money flows are by negotiation.
Best wishes.
‘All of these studies have found that a high level of skilled migration is positive for the country.’
As long as you ignore the environment totally!
P1andBB
I already opined that our migration levels would have almost no impact on carbon footprint of our migrants at source or here.
The Abbott ginger group flooding social media with why their man should be returned have this comment on today’s NewsPoll
“Malcolm Turnbull’s continued position as Newspoll’s “Preferred PM” doesn’t mean much when both he and Shorten are the two most disliked leadership options in over 20 years. It’s like a choice between a sore throat and a runny nose. #BringBackAbbott #auspol”
If you are selectively importing highly skilled immigrants then logically immigrants will become over represented in the ‘well paid jobs’ sector. Not hard to see that causing resentment from the ‘locals’.
Lovey @ #133 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 11:39 am
A migrant to Australia would most likely increase their carbon footprint quite dramatically.
‘You’re even worse than Morrissey.’
A TRULY DEVASTATING SIGN AT THE ANTI-TRUMP PROTEST IN LONDON. 🙂
Given neither political party has gotten more than 40% of the primary vote, it is highly likely that the winning party will win government on the lowest primary vote or near to it on record. Below are the lowest primary votes recorded for the winning party in an election, at least in the post war era.
Labor 1990: 39.44%
Coalition 1998: 39.51%
Although if you can consider Labor + 80% of the Greens vote as a extremely reliable voting bloc, then Labor has been consistently ahead of the Coalition since the election.
On to Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating it is currently pretty much the same as Donald Trump’s in the low to mid 40’s.
Good morning all,
I think it can be taken as a given that Shorten and labor are well aware of the ” immigration angst ” that is simmering in this country atm and which is being flamed by Dutton and co.
How should labor respond ?
Shorten is speaking at the ACTU national conference this week and I would not be surprised if he framed the migration issue around overseas workers entering the country on temporary work visas.
The last few days Shorten has been clear and focused when questioned during pressers on the immigration issue and rinses and repeats the fact 1.6 million overseas workers are here on such visas.
Tie this fact in with the high level of youth unemployment, fall off in apprenticeships , the need to fully fund TAFE etc etc etc and Shorten can argue for a significant tightening of these visas to ensure ” Australian workers first ” while not getting goaded down the rabbit hole being dug by the government.
Train Australians, give them first crack at jobs and restrict the inflow of temporary work visas by 30,000 yo 40, 000 a year and labor can offer a practical and real world alternative to simply saying cut permanent migration.
Frame the debate around jobs and training and putting Australian workers first and I think labor may be able to turn the debate into a winner or, at the very least, not a loser for them.
Cutting the numbers of ” evil foreigners ” entering the country and making sure Australians are trained and first in line for jobs all wrapped up in the one parcel.
We shall see.
Thanks for your input. Really appreciate this blog for the opportunity to air the obscure miscellaneous.
Lizzie
We got the 23andMe DNA testing done, the company is run by the wife of Google founder Sergei Brin.
On ancestry, remarkably accurate – one Eastern European, including 3% Mongol, the other Western European with 3% North African, probably the Moors.
Lizzie,
DNA testing at ancestry.com is scientifically sound, but results are not necessarily as specific as C@tmomma’s. One of the unexpected regions in my wife’s results was Scandanavia, but there’s no indication of which country.
I wouldn’t be sending off my DNA to ancestry if I was planning to become a serial killer.
Diogenes says: Monday, July 16, 2018 at 11:50 am
I wouldn’t be sending off my DNA to ancestry if I was planning to become a serial killer.
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or having it “planted” at a crime scene 🙂
P1
Not in skilled migration category, I don’t think the skilled migration category the impact would be huge. Mostly educated middle class city dwellers moving to apartments in the cities here.
Prof Higgins
Lapps in the Attic?
Lovey @ #145 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 12:01 pm
Do you think we get a lot of skilled migrants from Qatar, Kuwait, or the United Arab Emirates? Because they’re the only countries with higher per-capita emissions than us.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions
Lovey @ #144 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 12:01 pm
I most certainly did not move into an apartment in the city. If that’s what I wanted I would have just stayed in San Francisco.
Why would anyone choose to relocate to Australia and then decide to live in a citypartment? Australia is all about single-family homes and world-class beaches.
Boerwar,
Lapps in the Attic?
Be still, my pounding heart! 🙂
Sprocket
Was it mitochondrial? We had our surname traced from my brother’s DNA several years ago.