Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A more or less entirely static result from Newspoll, highlighted if anything by slight movement from the major to the minor parties.

The latest Newspoll result from The Australian has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged from a fortnight ago at 51-49, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – to 38% in the Coalition’s case and 36% in Labor’s – with both the Greens and One Nation up a point, to 10% and 7% respectively. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Bill Shorten unchanged at 32% and down one to 56%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-31 to 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from an as yet unreported sample size that would have been between 1600 and 1700.

UPDATE: The sample was 1644. Respondents were also asked if they approved or disapproved of the fact that the government has granted residency to less than 165,000 new migrants this year, compared with a cap of 190,000. Seventy-two per cent did so, compared with 23% who disapproved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

505 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. Perhaps Newscorps/Lib strategists are thinking “kill Bill” is working because there was a one point shift.

    Chipping away but with no result on 2PP

    While Bill & co ignores and just keeps on going on.

  4. Skunkhour links in the morning. Very approve

    Thanks Rat.
    But LU posting a morning Mighty Boosh link trumps everything.

  5. No doubt the Trumpster will also bullshit about the wonderful meeting he has with Putin. Seriously, when are the people of the US going to wake up from their stupor

    Mark Warner
    Mark Warner
    @MarkWarner
    You can’t just show up to a meeting with Kim Jong-Un, take a couple photos and pretend the North Korean nuclear issue is over. We need to know the truth about North Korea’s nuclear program and what it will actually take to end it.

    Congress Moves to Force Trump to Come Clean on North Korea Talks
    thedailybeast.com

  8. jenauthor says:

    Perhaps Newscorps/Lib strategists are thinking “kill Bill” is working because there was a one point shift

    The movement might just be ‘The Abbott Absence Effect” . Whenever Tones was not in the news for a while be it parly not sitting or whatever the Coalition would show an improvement. Of course the improvement disappeared once Tones ‘returned’ to remind everybody how bad he was 🙂

  10. C@tmomma@7:50am
    We need good Math and English teachers in private schools. I know for fact that a person doing Teaching degree for High School Math in one of the NSW Universities joined a private school before completing 1st year of the course.

  11. Interesting that of the 1,644 “people” polled, 72% supported the reduction in immigration numbers and 23% opposed

    Is this confirmation of racist Australia?

    Or is this indicative of the Postcodes polled, aligning to the “Australian” readership demographic?

    Hence Turnbull’s popularity?

    These Polls are commissioned by a Media conglomerate which has a political agenda – as noted in many contributions to this Blog

    It appears inconsistent that 72% supporting a reduction in immigration (from 180,000 in a population of 25 Million growing by how many per annum to put 180,000 into perspective?) would then support the ALP over the Liberal Party given the presentations of the Minister Dutton on the ills of immigration including that going out in Melbourne sees the risk of being bashed by an African Gang hence no one feels safe going out at night in Melbourne (noting over 30,000 attended an AFL game between 2 bottom clubs Friday night, the game starting at 7.50PM and finishing about 11PM)

    So what is the validity of Newspoll noting the recent changes?

    It all comes back to 72% of 1,644

    Could we hold a “straw poll” on here to see if 72% is achieved?

    I am of the view that immigration drives culture and economic activity including services to our aged and infirmed residing in facilities and supported by the members of staff who support them

    Then look at those who sit atop our major Companies and have been and are such wonderful contributors to Australia and I will not name them because I know some of them as friends

    They make wonderful contributions across society

  12. There is an advert on a commercial channel for something or other that contains more fibre than something else. Illustrated by a goldfish swimming from one side of the fishbowl to the other and each time being ‘surprised’ by the ‘new’ information.

    Every time I see it, I think the voice of the goldfish sounds like Barnaby Joyce. Funny, that.

  13. Observer,

    I believe Australia’s immigration intake is too high and has been for decades.

    I get sick and freaking tired of anyone who disagrees with me thinking all they have to do to win the argument is to play the race card.

  14. 51-49 – too close for comfort.

    #WeatheronPB: a ‘bracing’ morning here by Lake Macquarie where I’ve been staying a couple of days. When I got up, it was -1° with frost and an icy windscreen. Now a cold sunny morning.

  16. Bill Shorten should offer to cut immigration by another 20,000. It would be a winner and we might as well have a bit of a slowdown while we work out what our immigration program is for. Bill could probably announce a review of population / immigration policy.

    We reach 25 million around August 10.

  17. Is this confirmation of racist Australia? Or is this indicative of the Postcodes polled

    I will try to answer. Neither. They didnt specify the type of immigration. I would suggest around 70% would be a fairly typical response as it would include most Coalition voters, all PHON, anti population increase ALP and Greens voters and racist ALP voters.

  19. Simon² Katich® @ #39 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 8:22 am

    C@t, is the image on the Skunkhour link daves Gravatar?

    Interesting. Maybe Dave is a funk rock bass player?

    It looks a lot like it, SK. Or, maybe, dave and Skunkhour used the same image in a prosaic coincidence. I like the first explanation better, of course.

    And I would think that he MAY even be, Del the Funky Homosapien’s funky sax player(it’s why he’s not here all the time, he’s been away touring with Del and The Gorillaz 😉 ):

    https://youtu.be/9Bku7gXlkoo

  22. lizzie @ #62 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 9:38 am

    There is an advert on a commercial channel for something or other that contains more fibre than something else. Illustrated by a goldfish swimming from one side of the fishbowl to the other and each time being ‘surprised’ by the ‘new’ information.

    Every time I see it, I think the voice of the goldfish sounds like Barnaby Joyce. Funny, that.

    Well, there is the fact that BJ thinks the electorate has the short term memory of a goldfish.

  25. It’s not racist to say we should cut or pause our immigration policy. We actually need a root and branch review of the whole area of population / immigration. For the first generation after the end of WW2, everyone knew what our program was for. We wanted to bulk up, grow the economy, fill labor shortages for burgeoning industries, populate or perish.

    Now, it’s not so clear. Big Business, especially the housing and construction industry, want all the people we can cram in. On the other hand, we seem to be exporting jobs. Then we have the aging population. Ideally, in the long term, Australia and the world probably need zero population growth, birth rates close to replacement level, maybe surpluses and deficits here and there to take account of local circumstances. The exponential is not sustainable.

  27. John Birmingham’s take on the Idiotad (prat the frist):
    Top Ten Classical Myths of the Modern Age

    1. Sisyphus.

    And lo did it come to pass that Sisyphus the King of Corinth angered the Gods with his self-aggrandising deceitfulness about how he was always Getting Things Done. Thus Zeus did lay upon him a great and terrible punishment which was at the same time quite fitting. You are to read and respond to every email until your inbox be empty, declared Zeus, and Sisyphus smirked, thinking he’d knock this over before his second coffee in the morning. But Zeus did enchant the inbox of Sisyphus with all of the author newsletters in the world and never once did the mortal king manage to get to Inbox Zero but that he was suddenly inundated with an infinite number of desperate pleas to buy-my-new-book.

    2.

    In the kingdom of Phrygia did Midas reign and there was he famous for his greed, which mostly wasn’t an issue for anybody except those cursed to listen to his lamentations about having missed out on the Google IPO. One day, however, the satyr Silenus went missing after a long brunch with a frankly unhealthy number of Tequila Sunrise Mimosas. Some peasants found him sleeping it off in a park, which was not to be punished by the law because he was a white dude. They took the satyr to Midas who hosted him for a legendary binge of ten days and on the eleventh day did Silenus reward Midas by granting him one wish. Midas wished that all his wealth was in bitcoin, which Silenus granted and, well, I suppose I don’t have to tell you how that turned out.

    3.

    Phorcys the primordial sea god lay with Ceto, who birthed him Medusa, a winged demi-human female with a head full of venomous snakes. All who looked directly upon her monstrous form were turned to stone by the horror of it. Still, she did poll enough votes in the full Senate election to fill a quota, and most mornings she can be safely watched on the Sunrise breakfast program, hissing and spitting poison at the screen.

    4.

    In the village of Balmain there lived a curious woman known to all as Pandora. Inquisitive and defiant of Zeus, who warned her to just stick with home delivery from Woolies, Pandora could not help lifting the lid on the forbidden box of organic locavore bicycle-delivered comestibles ordered from a very convenient mobile app. Thus did she unleash upon the villagers of Balmain, who were all as silly as her, a great plague of stupid left wing fruits and vegetables that nobody even knew how to eat.

    5.

    Jason, son of the deposed king Lolcos (“I LOL cos if I didn’t I would cry. Did I ever tell you about how I was totally deposed?”) set out on a quest with a crew of Argonaut heroes. Many adventures did they have triggering all of the harpies and making out like bandits with the sirens. But long was their journey and bitter the return, when Jason’s wife who’d had just about enough of his piss-farting around, took everything and buggered off with the kids to a unit in Surfers Paradise. Great was the bitching and moaning of Jason and the Argonauts about how the Family Court was stacked against them, but to no avail, and they died sad and alone, depriving Mark Latham of much needed viewers for his widely unwatched Facebook show.

  28. Carole Cadwalladr‏Verified account @carolecadwalla

    NEW: Mueller’s investigation reaches Britain. Exclusive insight into UK’s forensic referendum data investigation which is now working with FBI. Cambridge Analytica data ‘accessed from Russia’

    It all comes down to data. Mueller is following the data trail. & Denham is following the data trail. This is vast, complex & transnational. And these 2 firms at heart of Brexit – Cambridge Analytica & AIQ – are linked not just to one another. But also to Trump.

    Elizabeth Denham: ‘Data crimes are real crimes’

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/15/elizabeth-denham-data-protection-information-commissioner-facebook-cambridge-analytica?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Complicated ???? – you betcha ( maybe KayJay can blow this up a bit )

  29. davidwh

    And twice the sugar, I suspect.

    Bill may bore me to tears but I wouldn’t want to kill him.

    Very decent of you, david. 🙂

  31. I don’t think it is a sign of racism either.

    I think people are worried about jobs and the ‘propaganda’ out of the govt tells people that ‘furreners’ are stealing them. They don’t have the info/wherewithal to differentiate between temp. visa holders and permanent immigrants and the OZ/Tele aren’t about to make them better informed … doesn’t suit the political strategy that is intended to wedge ALP

  34. PhoenixRed

    I am still very confident that the whole Trump Imbroglio will be exposed.
    It will heighten public awareness of what some of the one percenters (which Trump wants to believe he is part of) plan to disrupt democracies to garner more autonomous power for themselves.
    My concern right now is that the Trump cultists are taking so long to see the truth. Trump represents their warped white version of the world and to date they are prepared to cop Trump being a traitor and working towards the benefit of those one percenters. It is quite disconcerting to observe.
    I still can’t get out of my head the feral response these same people had when Obama wore that tan suit. It is beyond ridiculous
    And wish the spell breaks soon

  35. This is a very interesting story about the little apartment, Malcolm Turnbull’s mother, Coral Lansbury, lived in:


    The recent $7.31 million sale of a Point Piper apartment might have special significance for our Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, and not just because it is two doors away from his waterfront mansion.

    https://www.domain.com.au/news/intriguing-history-behind-the-waterfront-neighbour-of-prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-20180715-h12l3d-752442/?utm_campaign=featured-masthead&utm_source=smh&utm_medium=link

  36. Ante Meridian @ #63 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 6:39 am

    Observer,

    I believe Australia’s immigration intake is too high and has been for decades.

    I get sick and freaking tired of anyone who disagrees with me thinking all they have to do to win the argument is to play the race card.

    Our population will get bigger no matter what.

    The issue that has been avoided by Governments in Australia, both federal and State, is establishing and maintaining the infrastructure to deal with this.

    With an appropriate NBN it shouldn’t matter where many businesses are located.

    Access to education is a primary concern for many migrants as well as existing citizens, so appropriately resourced schools in regional centres would encourage people to look outside the major cities to settle.

    We need to be smarter and more proactive with how we deal with the issue, at the moment it’s just band aid after band aid being applied to our cities without looking at long term solutions.

    We need to create and promote reasons for people to live outside our major cities. 🙂

  37. In reply to “bug1 says:
    Monday, July 16, 2018 at 8:07 am”

    Mueller’s investigation continues relentlessly. He is uncovering facts starting from the bottom and then slowly ascending to the top, step by step, assembling piece of info after piece of info. That’s why both Giuliani and Trump want to dismiss this whole affair asap, because they know that time is against them. Occasionally there may be some specific paths leading nowhere. That’s not a problem, it happens in all investigations. What’s clear so far is that there is enough evidence to keep going… and that’s exactly what Mueller is doing and will continue to do.

    The idea that this is just a show put together by “sour-grapes-loser” Hillary is nonsense. Many Republicans are seriously worried, foreign interference with a Presidential election is no joke.

    Finally, you are not seriously backing Trump, are you? No matter how much some characters may hate Hillary, Trump is a million times worse: he is a Neoliberal, he is a dangerous Populist, he is a proven Liar, he just works for his mates in the top 1%, he is a Narcissist with arguably some serious psychological problems, he is destroying the confidence of historical allies of the USA, he is introducing a level of instability in world politics/economics that is becoming worrying….

    On the other hand, Clinton’s and Kaine’s program was Social Democratic. Read the book they published in the lead up to the presidential election: “Stronger together: A blueprint for America’s future” Simon & Schuster Paperbacks, New York.

    That some people in the far left love Trump could only be understood in terms of them expecting that this lunatic messes things up in the USA to such an extent that a Revolution may be taken seriously by a majority of people…. Perhaps Trump may facilitate a Revolution, but it will be a Fascist Revolution…. is that what those people in the far left want?

  38. Could Bludgers assist me in a matter of journalistic hyperbole? The Guardian’s headline today about the World Cup is “France seals triumph with 4-2 win over brave Croatia”. I have played, coached in three team sports and remained an avid sports spectator for over half a century, but not once have I considered a team’s performance on the field to be “brave”.

    If this wasn’t in a respectable newspaper, I wouldn’t be bothering Bludgers, yet again, with a question about the potential for Orwellian degradation of our vocabulary by mainstream media.

  39. It is just an observation and I do not have a shred of evidence to support the following, but it strikes me that some of the most strident advocates for wanting fewer migrants are those who have been migrants themselves – or their parents were. I did note somewhere that in Perth, for instance, 1/4 people were not born in Oz and 2/4 were first and second generation children of said immigrants. Maybe a kind of “We don’t want that lot coming in and spoiling it for us” attitude?

  41. Alpo

    And what is more ridiculous, is that those running the investigation, are lifelong Republicans.
    Why would they do anything for Clinton’s sake?

  42. Boerwar

    If you are about the opt out site is up for MyHealth record is up and running. True to form it should crash at some time but as of 10:15 it was working

    https://www.myhealthrecord.gov.au/for-you-your-family/opt-out-my-health-record

    The opting out was easy with personnel details required (and tends to make sense to prevent others creating mischief).

    I have printed my receipt as to have it emailed would provide a source of Lieberal propaganda. (and possibly having @Wayne_the _insane appear on the doorstep like a JW proselytising for the above group)

  43. I applied for the age pension in mid-April, two weeks before I was eligible. I could have applied up to 13 weeks prior.
    I was told to expect it to be dealt with by June 1. On June 1 I was asked to provide more information, which I immediately did.
    My part pension was approved two days later and payment backdated.
    I guess I am lucky.

  45. it strikes me that some of the most strident advocates for wanting fewer migrants are those who have been migrants themselves – or their parents were.

    The well known phenomenon of ‘last one in shut the gate’.

  47. bug1 @ #36 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 8:07 am

    Here is some info if your interested.
    https://disobedientmedia.com/2018/07/muellers-latest-indictment-ignores-evidence-in-the-public-domain/

    Do you have a reference to the same info being provided by any source more credible than ‘disobedientmedia.com’?

    Because while I don’t know anything specific about that source, I would tend to assume that it’s no more trustworthy than those political meme graphics you can find thrown around on Facebook and Twitter. Not something I’m willing to take any facts from.

  48. Victoria says: Monday, July 16, 2018 at 10:18 am

    PhoenixRed

    I am still very confident that the whole Trump Imbroglio will be exposed.
    It will heighten public awareness of what some of the one percenters (which Trump wants to believe he is part of) plan to disrupt democracies to garner more autonomous power for themselves.
    My concern right now is that the Trump cultists are taking so long to see the truth. Trump represents their warped white version of the world and to date they are prepared to cop Trump being a traitor and working towards the benefit of those one percenters. It is quite disconcerting to observe.

    *************************************************

    Victoria – I fear that no matter what the Mueller team and the Brits mentioned in the article I posted above that there will be a certain % of people in the US …. yes …… and even in Australia or even on PB – will never accept their findings if they turn out to conclusively link Trump, Trump campaign and Russia …… it will just be “fake news” to them …

  49. Prof. Higgins @ #88 Monday, July 16th, 2018 – 7:21 am

    Could Bludgers assist me in a matter of journalistic hyperbole? The Guardian’s headline today about the World Cup is “France seals triumph with 4-2 win over brave Croatia”. I have played, coached in three team sports and remained an avid sports spectator for over half a century, but not once have I considered a team’s performance on the field to be “brave”.

    If this wasn’t in a respectable newspaper, I wouldn’t be bothering Bludgers with, yet again, with a question about the potential for Orwellian degradation of our vocabulary by mainstream media.

    It is strange wording.

    Brave says you are scared by something but are doing that thing anyway.

    So what did Croatia have to be scared of?

    Is the writer implying that they weren’t worthy of being in the final and were hoping not to be humiliated?

    Probably more a case of sour grapes after having beat the Poms. 🙂

  50. At any time in our history of immigration there would have been a solid majority of opposition. Maybe the “population or perish” post-war sentiment was an exception. Racism is a small component of that.

    But the calls for a debate/conversation and a “population” policy lacks perspective. There was always a section within the Immigration Department tasked for this, and there have been a number of studies over the years, in fact there was a Minister for Population amongst other things in Labor’s reign.

    All of these studies have found that a high level of skilled migration is positive for the country.

    As for environmental concerns, P1 and others at least acknowledge now that it is not global climate change so much-it cannot have any effect- but local degradation. Maybe they can explain how accommodating more people in our towns and cities directly affects the Barrier Reef, the Murray-Darling, or the extinction of the night parrot eg.

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