There were no new federal polls this week, but we did get repackaged old ones in the form of quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll and Ipsos. I only have full results from the former at this stage, but am hopeful of acquiring the latter next week. So all that’s happened in this week’s BludgerTrack update is that the new Newspoll data has been used to recalculate state breakdowns, with the national results exactly as they were last week.
As is often the case, the big hit of Newspoll state data has made little difference in the larger states, but quite a bit in the smaller ones, where samples are smaller and results less robust. This puts the Coalition solidly up in both Western Australia and South Australia, where they gain one seat apiece on the seat projections. While the changes in Victoria and Queensland are small, they have put the Coalition up a seat in Victoria and down one in Queensland. So the net effect of the changes is a two-seat gain to the Coalition, with Labor now projected to win 86 seats nationally to the Coalition’s 60.
Full results through the link below.
BB
that is easily explained. having your location setting on. but it is disconcerting having your phone tracking face to face conversations with people.
I don’t have any of those things happen with either of my phones. The worst thing that happens is adverts pop up on Facebook and Insta, but they’re easy enough to block.
fess
you may have not noticed it or alternatively, when you have face to face conversations, your phone is not on you, but perhaps in your bag. it seems to occur when your phone is in your pocket or jacket.
Fulvio Sammut @ #91 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 10:54 am
Fulvio
Prove it
I might be self opinionated but narcissist nah – not me at all.
At least get you abuse right kiddy wink
Now I meant that .
Yours was a childish response.
My neighbour next door has activated just about everything activateable on his phone … or should I say phones.
He says something in conversation between us and “Ok Siri” or “Ok Google” pipes up with helpful verbal advice from his shirt pocket.
He enabled fingerprint passwords, and has had to trash two phones in 2 weeks because something always goes wrong and the bloody things lock him out. No one can fix these blocks.
He’s on his third SIM card in 6 months because he can never remember which password applies to which phone.
He’s a lovely bloke, and a good friend by now, but he should not be allowed within 5 metres of a mobile phone, Android or Apple.
vic:
How do the adverts come onto your phone? Do they appear as a text, or a notification?
fess
it comes up as a pop up advertisement for that particular item
Darn, I don’t expect Labor will win 86 seats, and Queensland is indeed the best place to start in evaluating where they’re likely to fall short of that number. I make no claim for BT beyond it being how an election would look based on what the polls currently show. Meher Baba left a good comment the other day making the case for a conservative view of Labor’s prospects if you’ve time to track it down.
Thanks William
daretotread. @ #86 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 10:49 am
You certainly have a unique way of spelling “Trump”. But yes, High Treason it is.
Bushfire Bill @ #94 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 10:57 am
BB
Look mate
I actually rather admire you and place you into the category of one of the very few on this site who are smart – very smart – and if I had to go head to head with you on logic i would probably lose.
So cut the crap. I do not abuse you so give me respect in turn.
You have the brains to analyse what I wrote, so in your case it is just emotionl blockage.
think on what I wrote. Whatever way you look at it the president of the USA is about to go into a meeting with the leader of another nn. Days before an unelected civil servant indict s12 MILITARY Personnel from that country.
Now IF the President was aware of that indictment it is PRACTICALLY a declarion of WAR. Think BB. We are talking MILITARY people
The best case scenario is to think that Mueller and co are just treacherous bastards that will do anything to get rid of trump
The worst case scenario id that the people who really are running the USA (Not Trump) are trying to goad Russia into a military response which would then give the USA a rationale to attack Russia big time – yes EVEN to use nuclear weapons. This is of course not new – they have been trying it on for some time. Putin has not taken the bait.
Victoria @ #99 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 11:00 am
Vic – maybe google something like “review phone listening permissions” ?
Do it on youtube as well ?
a r
yep. The Trumpster is guilty of high treason. resigning at this point in time would be a good option for him.
dave
I generally ensure I dont have my phone near me, when I am having private conversations.
but i will check it out.
a r @ #110 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 11:16 am
AR
Have you the slightest idea of the diplomatic implications of that indictment. Forget that it is Russia (will the CIA allow that). Consider it was France or even the UK or Israel.. Two days before the President is to meet with them a civil servant indicts 12 of their MILITARY. It is a diplomatic nightmare.
Now I expect that Russia will retaliate by indicting 12 US Army or Diplomatic or NGO personnel or maybe people from Google or Facebook. The big difference is that we KNOW the Russians tap lots of phones so they will have actual taped evidence.
what will Trump actually do? I reckon he should resign. it is his best option
Tea Pain
@TeaPainUSA
7m7 minutes ago
More
Trump vowed “I alone can protect America.”
Bob Mueller has given him the information he needs to hold Putin accountable for his crimes and protect America.
If Trump fails to act, it will be a convincin’ indictment of his guilt.
Victoria @ #107 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 9:11 am
How strange. Yesterday I was at an event and all I had on me was my phone which I carried in my hand. I had numerous face-fact conversations with many people, but nothing on my phone except a missed call.
fess
that is good. Unfortunately, that has not been the experience of my circle of friends and family
how unsurprisement…………..
Five people who regularly speak to Trump told the Daily Beast that they had not heard him raise any alarm over the Russian hackers recently. Two noted that he has, however, talked repeatedly about his meeting with Putin and complained about Rosenstein
19 replies 134 retweets 172 likes
Reply 19 Retweet 134
Trump was informed of the charges before he left the US, giving the lie to the Russian twitter bot claims that this is a diplomatic nightmare and Mueller has overstepped the mark. If it is a diplomatic nightmare, it is one of Trump’s own making.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-being-told-of-russia-indictments-trump-still-aspired-to-be-friends-with-putin/2018/07/13/c24f5420-86b8-11e8-8553-a3ce89036c78_story.html?utm_term=.6b8d4c243cfc
fess
Trump has being given countless opportunities over the past few years to do the right thing.
So far he has failed to do so. Hence why I ask the question, what will he do now?
He has been given a way out. Remember the US dont want this to be a messy exit for him. It has caused enough damage to the country and by extension its allies. Look at what he has done whilst in the UK. it has been a clusterf@@k.
Right this minute he should be negotiating a deal for himself and his co conspirating family.
White House officials furious at timing of Russia indictments: ‘A big FU from Mueller’
White House officials are furious that special counsel Robert Mueller dropped new grand jury indictments against 12 Russian military officials ahead of President Donald Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“It’s a big FU from Mueller,” a White House official said in an interview with Politico. He added that Mueller’s timing “wasn’t an accident.”
However – John Dean, the former President Richard Nixon White House counsel, said the timing would force President Trump to comfort Putin’s about his military officials meddling into the 2016 presidential elections.
“The timing is no accident,” he said. “It forces Trump to confront Putin. If he fails to do so, he is admitting guilt. This story will now consume U.S. news, and blows up Trump’s claim it is all a witch hunt and hoax.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/white-house-officials-furious-timing-russia-indictments-big-fu-mueller/
Sen John McCain Tries to Compel Donald Trump to be Loyal to the United States
Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Senator John McCain tried to compel fellow Republican Donald Trump to be loyal to the United States on Friday after the indictment of 12 Russian spies for hacking the 2016 election.
McCain (R-AZ) said in a statement that Mueller’s indictment confirmed Putin’s plot to attack the election, “Today’s indictment is a result of the hard work of America’s law enforcement and intelligence officials who dedicate their lives to bringing to justice those who wish to do us harm. These revelations add to a body of evidence confirming an extensive plot by Vladimir Putin’s government to attack the 2016 election, sow chaos and dissension among the American electorate, and undermine faith in our democracy.”
“President Trump must be willing to confront Putin from a position of strength and demonstrate that there will be a serious price to pay for his ongoing aggression towards the United States and democracies around the world. If President Trump is not prepared to hold Putin accountable, the summit in Helsinki should not move forward.”
It is a sad day when a Senator battling brain cancer has to try to compel their own party’s president to put the United States on the I Really Do Care list.
https://www.politicususa.com/2018/07/13/sen-john-mccain-tries-to-compel-donald-trump-to-be-loyal-to-the-united-states.html
phoenixRed
Whitehouse is furious! really! the fact that it was already known before Trump was inaugurated that he was a traitor, I am surprised that he has been allowed to continue as leader for all this bloody time!!!
Vic:
It’s so typical of Trump to not heed the counsel of his advisors. Why would he double down on praise for Putin and Russia knowing these charges were coming? All he’s done is make himself look stupid and insult democracy.
fess
Trump is beholden to the Kremlin. It is as simple as that. There is a deal in place and Trump is doing what he can to stick to it.
Mnuchin Says Trade Talks Are Broken As China Calls U.S. Enemy of All
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday admitted that trade talks with China had “broken down” while China was calling the United States the “enemy of all” because of Donald Trump’s trade policies.
In a shot at President Donald Trump the Chinese statement ended with the following assertion:
“When the U.S. willfully exits from groups based on its own interests under the pretext of ‘American First,’ it becomes an enemy to all.”
https://www.politicususa.com/2018/07/13/mnuchin-says-trade-talks-are-broken-as-china-calls-u-s-enemy-of-all.html
fess
look at what Trump has done just this week. Crap on the UK, Germany, Rosenstein, the DOJ, FBI, Mueller etc. Not a word of crapola for the Kremlin. Why is that? it is beyond obvious and has been from the get go.
Robert Mueller just screwed Donald Trump on purpose – US political commentator Bill Palmer
No one was surprised to learn today that Robert Mueller had obtained indictments against twelve Russian government hackers who hacked the U.S. Presidential election in 2016. There are some noteworthy details in these indictments, such as the fact that the Russian hackers gave stolen material to a candidate for U.S. Congress (whose identity is remaining sealed for now), and someone who was in touch with the Trump campaign (probably Roger Stone, given what’s already been established). But what stands out here is Mueller’s timing.
Donald Trump is on his way to meet privately with Russian President Vladimir Putin as we speak. If Mueller didn’t want to interfere with that meeting, he could have waited to publicly announce these indictments until after Trump got home. Instead, Mueller is making a point of rolling this out just days before the meeting. This ensures that the media coverage of the summit will be within the context of how Putin hacked the election and shared the hacked material with one or more people in Trump’s orbit. That’ll ensure that the public views the summit in this context as well. Perhaps most importantly, this ensures that Donald Trump will be panicking during his summit with Putin. In fact he’s been panicking about it all week, because Rod Rosenstein announced this morning that he already informed Trump about it privately days ago.
It’s now clear that Robert Mueller is trying to screw Donald Trump on purpose by rolling out these Trump-Russia indictments at the worst possible time for Trump. Mueller has ensured that the Trump-Putin summit will be viewed by the public as an attempt at dealing with the fallout from the Trump-Russia election rigging conspiracy. Mueller has also set Trump up to make panic-driven mistakes over the next week. The timing of these indictments isn’t some grand coincidence – if it were, Mueller could have simply waited.
Mueller is turning the screws.
Vic:
Yep. Meanwhile Roger Stone will be the next one to be charged I reckon.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/charges-against-russian-intelligence-officers-intensify-spotlight-on-trump-adviser-roger-stone/2018/07/13/ba0d0caa-86bb-11e8-8553-a3ce89036c78_story.html?utm_term=.551a122b4e75
phoenixRed:
Trump was reportedly advised the charges against the Russians were coming before he flew out to Britain and Europe.
Confessions says: Saturday, July 14, 2018 at 11:48 am
phoenixRed:
Trump was reportedly advised the charges against the Russians were coming before he flew out to Britain and Europe.
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I have great respect for Victoria’s instincts – and she has repeatedly said that once the World Cup is finished then it would all happen ….. so it seems ….
and like you say Confessions, Rosenstein reported all this to Trump before he left on his trip – so he knew and still sucks up to Putin knowing what the Russian military have been up to …. how he has the gall to appear in public like nothing happened ……if he was any man, let alone President he would just cancel the meeting , catch the first flight home and resign …. as its downhill all the way now as the cracks in the dam are starting to creak louder
Tea Pain @TeaPainUSA
Donald Trump, with full knowledge that Russian Military Intelligence criminally attacked our democracy, is gleefully headin’ to Helsinki to smooch Putin’s hiney.
Tell us again how Trump ain’t in bed with the Russians.
Good morning all,
The ineptitude of the Turnbull government is once again on full show.
Catholic Education Victoria is now officially under investigation by the Federal government regulator re its charity status. The main issue apparently relates to those robo calls Catholic Education Victoria authorised during the Batman by election. The head of the organisation, Steve Elder, has been front and centre in the push back by the Catnolic education sector over Gonski 2.0 funding and has incurred the ire of Birminham on numerous occasions.
The stupidity of the government is gobsmacking. The optics ,for one , are horrendous. Threatening Catholic Education Victoria with removal of its charity status and its head, Steve Elder, with fines if he does not comply to orders to produce documents is outrageous.
The government will try to argue that the regulator is independent but pressuring Catolic education and Steve Elder, who has led the fight against Gonski 2.0, reeks of payback despite what the government may say.
Birmingham has managed to get the entire Catholic education sector across the country off side, he is in danger of doing the same to the so far compliant independent sector and the public sector is after his arse as well. To now stoke the fire even more is pure stupidity and reeks of petulance on the part of the government.
The robo calls during Batman cost the Catholic education commission in Victoria just $4000 and were sent out in a by election in which there was not even a liberal candidate. Why even worry ?
Shorten and co. will be rubbing their hands in glee and I think we can expect a big focus on education funding from Shorten, Plibersek and labor in general ramping up asap especially around how the government is hitting back at the catholic sector simply for standing up for the thousands and thousands of families that send their children to low fee catholic schools.
It should be remembered that the MSM and commentators ripped into Shorten after the 2017 budget when he announced labor would not support Gonski 2.0 because it was unfair. The MSM were outraged that labor could use such a huge Turnbull success as Gonski 2.0 to play politics and demanded labor should roll over and support it. Labor did not and now as Gonski 2.0 starts to bite Turnbull on the arse Shorten is ready. Labor has been vindicated for its strong commitement to oppose Gonski 2.0 on the grounds it was unfair and ripped billions out of education despite what Turnbull says.
Birmingham has managed to get everyone off side. State governments, education unions and now both the independent sector and the full catholic education sector across Australia.
The ineptitude is gobsmacking and the timing unbelievable with by elections approaching.
Cheers.
PhoenixRed
My instincts are not always right. Remember when I believed Trump would not actually be inaugurated!
Still embarrassed about that! Lol……
DTT, thanks for the pat on the head (again). It’s nice to know you think I’m intelligent etc. Such I shame I let myself down, eh?
First on the Thai Caves beat-up, and now on Trump and Putin. I just go over the top and ruin it all.
Don’t I realise there could be a nuclear war? That all of human civilization could be wiped out because Putin will get so cranky he might start a nuclear war over some indictments? Or that Trump might do the same thing, just to prove who’s boss?
I guess it would have been easier if the Russian intelligence services just didn’t interfere with the US election in the first place, because your logic seems to be that once they have there isn’t a really appropriate time to do anything about it. Some summit or some delicate negotiation will always get in the way. Assuming we’re talking about normal, rational people (which could be a bit of a stretch when Trump’s involved).
So (the logic then proceeds) a Special Prosecutor, tasked with investigating Russian influence or in the US election who actually does his job is now guilty of not just of treason, but HIGH treason for which death is the penalty.
That’s a pretty kooky conclusion to come to, DTT.
Lawrence O’Donnell described today’s indictments as Watergate Part II. He’s placing heavy emphasis on the part of Rosenstein’s narrative which underlines the need for America to demand from Putin the extradition of the Russian hackers. Guest David Corn is the well-informed author of ‘Russian Roulette’.
Prof. Higgins says: Saturday, July 14, 2018 at 12:14 pm
Lawrence O’Donnell described today’s indictments as Watergate Part II. He’s placing heavy emphasis on the part of Rosenstein’s narrative which underlines the need for America to demand from Putin the extradition of the Russian hackers. Guest David Corn is the well-informed author of ‘Russian Roulette’.
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Prof. Higgins – I very much doubt that Russia would give up any of its citizens for extradition – and never for any Military Intelligence personnel ….
I am more interested in who are the Americans involved with these Russians ?????? …… because THEY are the real traitors !!!!
Victoria says: Saturday, July 14, 2018 at 12:05 pm
PhoenixRed
My instincts are not always right. Remember when I believed Trump would not actually be inaugurated!
Still embarrassed about that! Lol……
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Your instincts were probably still correct – its just that a bunch of Russians collaborating with some of the GOP members and Trumps campaign staff itself decided that the normal due processes were getting thrown out the window and that THEIR puppet Manchurian candidate was getting installed …..
From John Cleese’s Facebook page.
Last line sums it up perfectly
“My American friends are asking me about President Trumps’s observation that the British ‘like him’
I regret this is quite unfounded
The explanation for this canard is that Trump is pronoid
Pronoid is the opposite of paranoid. A paranoid person thinks, without any basis in reality, that everybody is out to get them. A pronoid person is someone who thinks, without any
basis in reality, that everybody likes them
The fact is that the British loathe Donald Trump
This is because he is the polar opposite of a ‘ Gentleman ‘, who has qualities the British admire. A fine example is Gareth Southgate
To the British, a ‘ Gentleman ‘ is a man who is modest, well-mannered, self deprecating, quietly intelligent, considerate of other people’s feeling, and well-informed.
He is not vulgar, inflated, vain, boastful, noisily ignorant, sleazy and common as muck”
phoenixRed,
I concur with you. Perhaps the point is to make the demand and then use the rejection to justify counter cyberattacks. My chief concern is that the Mueller investigation might ultimately result in Trump being pardoned by President Pence. The evangelical Veep is far more likely to ignite a nuclear war as a fulfilment of the fanatical “Endtimes” prophecy than a kleptocrat who owns property around the planet.
The IPA takeover is proceeding apace… tweets Rick Morton
“Morrison announces new head of the Productivity Commission. He once ran for Liberal preselection in Vic seat of Doncaster. Part of the panel that appointed him? John Lloyd, from the IPA who resigned as public service commissioner under investigation cloud”
Prof. Higgins says: Saturday, July 14, 2018 at 12:37 pm
phoenixRed,
I concur with you. Perhaps the point is to make the demand and then use the rejection to justify counter cyberattacks. My chief concern is that the Mueller investigation might ultimately result in Trump being pardoned by President Pence.
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Prof Higgins – Pence may well pardon Trump of FEDERAL crimes but the NY AG is reputedly waiting to throw the book at Trump & his Crime Family for STATE crimes ( – which he can’t be pardoned for ) under the RICO act ( Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act )
Also I think Pence may well be on Robert Muellers hit list – due to his association with Michael Flynn – but yes I agree the devil you know might not be as bad as the one you don’t know and with Pence the US would be going back to the ’80’s – the 1880’s !!!!
The Liberal Party in SA has endorsed Bernardi, Downer and Downer and Downer, Bishop, Pyne, Birmingham, Minchin and the List goes on and on
The upper echelons of polite society – born to rule
Assisting Downer Mark 3 would suite Bishop because she can visit her Lensworth based family – and do WCE play in Adelaide?
PhoenixRED@6:40am
Why is that Michigan farmer complaining? Trump said in his campaign speeches he would redress the trade imbalance with China by imposing tarrifs. Did he expect that China won’t retaliate if such action happens? He wanted to vote as per his emotional needs because he liked what Trump said but actually wanted what democrats were doing. This is what happens when you vote against your interests. I have no sympathy for that farmer especially because he is from a blue state for presidential elections. And this a reminder to so called Howard Battlers, who like what ALP does like more spending on infrastructure, health and welfare but vote LNP because they promise lower taxes. Where do they think that money will come to spend on important things if you cut taxes?
DTT – you really sell yourself short. That post about Mueller wasn’t wasted … I got a real belly laugh out of it. Made my day!
phoenixRed,
The 1880’s would indubitably be Pence’s ideal era. No unions, income tax, Social Security Act, or regulation of any sort for business, banks, stock market, environment, consumers, civil rights, health etc. etc. as As Indiana’s governor, Pence moved as rapidly as possible to return to the America that Mark Twain sardonically detailed with unerring accuracy in ‘Huckleberry Finn’.
“so they will have actual taped evidence”
The implication here, even stupider than most of the utterances in support of the sexual predator, conman, racist scum that is the President of the United States, is that Mueller with all the resources at his disposal and with all the work done by the FBI before the election does not have evidence. Just a sly cowardly implication but an obvious implication nevertheless even if it doesn’t have the courage of its own insane convictions.
It is plain to all the world the Russians were working with various people and Americans to distort the outcome of the US election, and all the evidence is consistent with that being a successful mission. After all this most disgusting of human beings the one person who embodies all the worst of US culture. Inherited white male privilege, excesses and exploitation of real contributors to society in the worst of capitalism and a sexual predator to boot.
And what makes this even more hilarious if you are sitting in Russia is the Murdoch media in the US and around the world doing your work for you supporting this disgusting failure of Western society, in the most important job in Western society. And then all the little sheep who also mindlessly support this worst of who we are person. He must laugh a lot.
Ven says: Saturday, July 14, 2018 at 12:53 pm
PhoenixRED@6:40am
Why is that Michigan farmer complaining? Trump said in his campaign speeches he would redress the trade imbalance with China by imposing tarrifs. Did he expect that China won’t retaliate if such action happens? He wanted to vote as per his emotional needs because he liked what Trump said but actually wanted what democrats were doing.
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Totally agree with you Ven – Trump being the ignoramus and snake oil salesmen that he is conned those rural voters with a whole bunch of false promises made with his blustering bravado based on BS rather than a true understanding of how the global trade economy works. Trump’s trade policies are designed to help him politically and to appeal to his “base” of voters who want to put “America First.” These Trump supporters are angry and resentful because they believe other countries are treating the U.S. unfairly, and Donald Trump is tapping into these emotions to help his political standing while at the same time destroying global trade agreements and possibly even the global economy……. and from reading what economists say – NO-ONE wins in an all-out global trade war
phoenixRED @ #142 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 12:45 pm
Still better than what they have with Trump.
Pence is just the normal kind of regressive political numpty that the US is political system is adept at dealing with. The pendulum swings one way, and then the other.
An interesting comment from one of the divers who found the trapped boys – before he could see them, he could smell them. Remember how the Viet Cong said they could smell Americans’ aftershave in the jungle?
I don’t think that our sense of smell is used enough. Knocked out by all the artificial fumes of our plastic and petroleum world.