There were no new federal polls this week, but we did get repackaged old ones in the form of quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll and Ipsos. I only have full results from the former at this stage, but am hopeful of acquiring the latter next week. So all that’s happened in this week’s BludgerTrack update is that the new Newspoll data has been used to recalculate state breakdowns, with the national results exactly as they were last week.
As is often the case, the big hit of Newspoll state data has made little difference in the larger states, but quite a bit in the smaller ones, where samples are smaller and results less robust. This puts the Coalition solidly up in both Western Australia and South Australia, where they gain one seat apiece on the seat projections. While the changes in Victoria and Queensland are small, they have put the Coalition up a seat in Victoria and down one in Queensland. So the net effect of the changes is a two-seat gain to the Coalition, with Labor now projected to win 86 seats nationally to the Coalition’s 60.
Full results through the link below.
Billy J
You make a very good point.
Billy J @ #48 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 6:26 am
What do you think you are doing commenting on Australian politics?
Well done, at last something relevant! 🙂
Jenauthor
Yep. It does. Once England was out of World cup, green light given for next stage of this whole saga
Someone on twitter has remarked to Rick Wilson that since the Russian election attack was by a military organisation it breaches the NATO treaty.
I just saw a comment online calling Trump a mangled apricot hellbeast!
I can’t stop laughing!!
Here’s an interesting piece on why we don’t need religious freedom legislation.
It’s from a couple of days ago and I think it’s been post already but it’s good counter to the suggestions that we do.
This could be said of many other areas as traditional hegemonies are breaking down. 🙂
https://theconversation.com/why-australia-does-not-need-a-religious-discrimination-act-99666
Fess
The most important thing is to get Trump away from the seat of power. He is not loyal to the US. He is doing the bidding of others which includes Russia amongst a few other nations. . None of them are allies of Australia.
This is by far our biggest problem right about now
Vic:
I’m hoping jenauthor is right in that the pimple is about to burst!
Victoria @ #58 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 6:43 am
When’s the next election?
Julie Bishop can pull a beer but can she pull votes for Liberal Mayo candidate Georgina Downer? I think I can answer that question!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-14/mayo-by-election-a-two-party-race/9958142
Victoria @ #49 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 9:28 am
Vic thats called retargeting –
David Sumpter –
All the big Internet services – including Google, Yahoo, Facebook,
Microsoft and Apple – build up a personalised picture of our interests and use
these to decide what adverts to show us.
These services are transparent to some degree, allowing users to review their settings. It lies in these companies’ interests to ask us if they have properly understood our tastes.
But they certainly don’t tell us everything they know about us.
Angela Grammatas, who works as a programmer in marketing analytics,
emphasised to me that there is little doubt that retargeting – which is the
technical term for the online advertising that uses recent searches to choose
what products to show users – is highly effective.
She told me about how the Campbell’s ‘SoupTube’ campaign used Google’s Vogon system to show users specific versions of an advert that best matched their interests.
According to Google, the campaign led to a 55 per cent increase in sales.
Angela told me: ‘Google is relatively benign, but the power of the “like”
button on Facebook to target adverts is scary. Your “liking” gives a lot of
insight into you as a person.’
——
There are measures you can take to reduce the amount of information you ‘give out’ about yourself etc online.
One is by using Chrome plug-in called ‘NOISZY’
Noiszy is a browser plugin that creates meaningless web data – digital “noise.”
It visits and navigates around websites, from within your browser, leaving misleading digital footprints around the internet. Noiszy only visits a list of sites that you approve, and only works when you turn it on. Run Noiszy in the background while you’re working, or start Noiszy when you’re not using your browser, and it sends meaningless data to these sites for as long as you let it run.
This meaningless data dilutes the significance of your “real” data, by creating a campaign of misinformation. You become more difficult for an algorithm to understand, market to, or manipulate.
https://noiszy.com/
Ex-CIA director predicts next Mueller indictments will include Americans
x-CIA director Michael Hayden made a bold prediction on CNN Friday afternoon, telling host Jake Tapper that he suspects the next round of indictments by Robert Mueller will include Americans.
The retired four-star general who led the NSA and the CIA said that he does not expect Trump to back out of his summit with Vladimir Putin, but that Trump should confront him.
“This is your chance, Mr. President,” he said. “We have solid, forensic, detailed evidence that the president can make use of.”
Hayden said that he had long suspected that Mueller’s investigation would end in an inconclusive cloud but “the more this goes on, the more I believe we are going to see a widening circle here.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/ex-cia-director-predicts-next-mueller-indictments-will-include-americans/
BK @ #61 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 6:48 am
I would dispute the claim that she learnt how to tap a keg.
Back in those days you had to spear a keg to tap it, not an easy thing to do and not something a publican would leave to a part timer.
CNN’s Jake Tapper unloads on Trump’s ‘false and frankly hideous’ conspiracy theories in blistering dismantling
Tapper aired a clip of Trump saying that the real problem is people being angry about Russians helping him win an election—and not the fact that they did help him.
“I think we are being hurt very badly by the, I would call it the witch hunt, I would call it the rigged witch hunt,” Trump said. “I think that really hurts our country and really hurts our relationship with Russia. I think we would have a chance to have a very good relationship with Russia and a very good relationship with President Putin.”
Tapper then discussed the fact that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein had briefed Trump on the coming indictments of Russian intelligence agents.
“The man tasked with protecting the United States of America, knowing of these indictments of 12 Russian military officers for a successful cyber attack against the United States, that man expressed regret as to how the investigation is hurting relations with Russia,” Tapper said.
But it’s worse than that, he said, because Trump asked Russia to hack Clinton, and they redoubled their efforts the same day.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/cnns-jake-tapper-unloads-trumps-false-frankly-hideous-conspiracy-theories-blistering-dismantling/
Did the story about the corrupt NSW Liberal party politician and his crooked dealings with the Chinese and property developer sleaze bags even crack a mention in the Australian?
I read the online front page and can’t see a mention of it.
Can’t have happened then.
C@tmomma @ #11 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 7:18 am
You’re being unfair to anarchists there. An anarchist wants to trash major institutions, replace them with nothing, and give everyone lots of civil liberties.
Trump’s Reactionary Conservatives want to trash major institutions, replace them with ones that they can use to control and/or silence and/or jail their political opponents, and force their brand of Christian orthodoxy on the rest of society. They’re not anarchists, they’re fascists.
Fulvio Sammut @ #66 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 7:08 am
Well it’s not really news, is it?
It’s of the order of;
🙂
It’s on page three.
Did they feature a photo of a near naked woman with huge breasts immediately above it?
Whether it is a good thing or a bad thing policy wise is not the primary issue for me right now. All I am interested in is getting rid of the destructive bunch of scumbags currently running this country and anything that I perceive to be of potential risk to that outcome is of great concern to me.
FWIW, I believe the issue is potentially dangerous for Labor and needs to be handled very carefully. In the wake of the overcrowding that is now occurring in our major cities Albo may well have a point (if that is what he actually said). I am detecting a strong undercurrent of negativity in almost all of the people I talk to about the subject. There is a lot of anger and frustration out there.
I just don’t want Labor to be caught flat footed if this turns out to be an explosive sleeper issue when this all important election is finally called.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/13/albanese-sends-another-signal-hes-ready-and-willing-for-the-top-job
Dave
I understand garnering information whilst you are online.
This is information garnered by you talking to people and your phone is nearby
Four vital takeaways from today’s charges.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/07/robert-muellers-indictments-show-witches-are-very-real/
The context of Abanese’s comment re immigration:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/13/industry-brands-australias-10-migration-intake-drop-disappointing
Victoria, if that technology exists, someone is using it.
The question is simply whether it exists.
Rather ‘sedate’ coverage of Lib from Wagga story on SKY.
I suppose it’s the wrong time of day for the SKY wowser faction to erupt … maybe this evening … or since he’s a Lib … maybe not at all
Fulvio Sammut
it happens too often to be a coincidence. One recent example. son was talking to co worker about a particular tool which he was interested in getting. not long after, an advert popped up for this particular tool. i cant recall what type of tool it was, save to say it was an obscure item. My son was flabbergasted at the time. no time prior to him discussing this item, did such an advert appear on his timeline.
William
If you’re still there. I notice that Bludgertrack is still showing a quite large number of seat gains for Labor in Queensland. I am sure you have interpreted the data correctly but how do you feel about that intuitively? Does it seem a little high to you?
fess
Trump should accept and understand that the jig is up. If he attends meeting as arranged with Putin. What will Putin ask of him? and will Trump oblige? Whichever way you look at it, Trump is on a suicide mission
jenauthor
If it were a Labor MP, Sky would be assembling their top guns to go over the entrails of the scandal
BK @ #16 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 7:56 am
I’m seeing a few of these stories recently. How Australia will be “rooooned” if we allow migration to fall even by a tiny fraction from our current record levels.
Clearly, this issue is starting to get some traction. Not enough, but some.
If it were a Labor MP, Sky would be assembling their top guns to go over the entrails of the scandal
____
Or blunderbusses as the case may be.
Mark Warner
Verified account
@MarkWarner
7h7 hours ago
More
In light of today’s indictments, there should be no one-on-one meeting between President Trump and Vladimir Putin on Monday. There must be Americans in the room. If the President won’t make Russia’s attack on our election the #1 issue at the summit, then it should be canceled.
Would have rated a special edition if it had been a Labor minister.
How many Liberals went for developer donations last time ICAC sprung them? Was it 10? 11? I remember some mention of “a cricket team”.
Yet somehow it’s only Labor corruption that gets rehashed time and time again.
They seem to be asking us to accept that this is just another rotten apple, in a series of individual rotten apples. Not systemic at all. No sir.
Sydney residents by and large have had a gutful of planning being taken out of local councils’ hands, with almost everything within co’ee of a railway station having “State significant” stamped on it, with many of them also qualifying for “Cabinet Confidential” as well.
The winners of these development pitches come from a relatively small pool of firms. The constructors, likewise. The same names crop up all the time. NSW is being sold down the river by corrupt Liberal politicians with compliant (one might even say complicit) public servants ticking and flicking just about anything involving a front end loader or a hard hat. Or dams on a cotton farm, for that matter.
My personal favourite was the $60,000,000 it took to demolish half a dozen toll kiosks at the southern end of the Bridge, tie off the cables and then tar over the holes. It made access to the structural gridlock of York St. and George St North about 5 seconds quicker. Give Gladys a kewpie doll!
So now we have a minister caught red-handed lying to ICAC, and then when shown to be a liar (3 minutes later as the recording was played), being allowed to just resign… not from Parliament, but just from his cushy job. Hundreds of candidate properties were involved. Chinese developers. Mates networks. And corruption. Always corruption.
He wasn’t even the relevant minister. He had some non-entity gig involving “Anzac Day celebrations”, yet he felt perfectly capable of “arranging” to have developments fast-tracked for a back-hander of a couple of per cent. What about the actual minister’s department? Wouldn’t this have had to have gone through them, too? How come the junior guy was so confident of success if there weren’t a few others in on the scam?
If nothing else, we have many “questions to be answered” on this one. Questions which will not be answered if the Liberals’ propensity to declare matters like this “commercial confidential”, to string out investigations, and then to leave the decision to prosecute in the hands of the police, who themselves are political animals of a particularly unsavoury nature.
Meanwhile, Bill Shorten failed to make certain that some minutes were signed off 10 years ago, or so it is alleged. Julia Gillard’s boyfriend did some dodgy dealings 26 years ago (for which charges involving his accomplice, alleged bagman and Crown witness were recently dropped) and we’ve had a Royal Commission into that. Electricity prices went up 7% during the Carbon Tax, but a further 56% above inflation subsequent to its repeal, yet the media automatically let Liberals get away with the claim that only Labor makes power prices rise.
From the city of Sydney to national politics the voters are being royally fucked by the Libs and their spiv mates, yet you’d think the only crooks to ever make it to Parliament were Eddie Obeid and Craig Thomson.
Page 3 sounds about right.
Had he googled information on the tool previously, generically or specifically?
Sometimes when an issue is on the mind of a busy person he or she can forget that an online enquiry was made, simply because it was unsuccessful, and the mind moves on.
As I said, if your (or anyone’s) phone has the capacity to pick up what you say in its presence and convey information elsewhere to a data base even if you are not making a call, then someone will use that capacity to his advantage.
I’v just never heard of that technology, although it may very well exist.
Now I know that this is a wasted post because most of you will either not have the capacity to understand what I am saying or will be so emotionally blocked that rationality does not get a look in, but here goes anyway:
Mueller is guilty of High Treason
Just imagine how most on here would have reacted IF Barack Obama had been about to meet with a key world leader with some delicate negotiations. Perhaps we might say China.
Now the Birther movement let us say had gone feral and there was an inquiry which had been set up by Obama’s opponents (we might say Hillary but it could be others within the DEMOCRAT party. The Republicans gave strong support for this inquiry. The imnquiry had spread and some chomnese hackers were accused of helping forge Obama’s documents
Two days before that crucial meeting the non elected investigator (let us say ken Star) indicted 12 chinese for supposedly helping Obama.
You would quite rightly be utterly outraged.
The obvious question is who is actually running the USA.
It does not matter one whit if Obama trashes NATO npublic or dances naked around Piccadilly or gives the Queen a kiss etc.
He does not have a whisker of power. He is a bizarre figure head.
Victoria @ #72 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 10:28 am
Vic – Yep. Sounds like an app on your phone is listening.
Fulvio –
There are ‘mainstream’ technologies already in place which have varying capacities. Some examples –
Cortana in Win 10. One of the first things in Win 1o I turned off, but I understand its pretty hard to remove or totally disable.
Google Talk – those hardware things you can buy for home to “listen” to your conversation. Why one would want a device to do so I don’t understand etc.
Marketing etc is not too far a step using the data collected.
Not voice, but Google Maps ‘knows’ from my phone when I visit Woolies supermarket or Aldi and I’ve been asked to rate those supermarkets several times after coming home. Could be it works with the android shopping list app, ‘Out of Milk’ that I use.
victoria:
Have a look at this for positively sick-making! 😆
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1017832276615417858
fulvio Sammut
no. This is just one example. I have countless examples of discussions that have taken place between people and then subsequently information appearing on phone subsequently. This has nothing to do with searching stuff online. Another example yesterday. Daughter was talking to colleague about new client and the type of business it is etc. Next thing you know, stuff relating to that appeared on her phone. Never searched this particular business or talked about it previously. There are countless other examples I can give. The common denominator is that your phone has to be with you. Not in your bag or somewhere else.
daretotread. @ #86 Saturday, July 14th, 2018 – 10:49 am
You have become a parody of yourself.
I have the capacity to understand when a post is coming from a self opinionated narcissist.
fess
Trump still thinks he is on a reality tv show and he will continue the charade of convincing the gullible that he is all that and a bag of chips.
if he had an ounce of common sense, he would have made a deal to bow out gracefully from the get go.
Maybe something like Google Assistant or an iphone equivalent –
How do I turn on my Google assistant?
Turn “Ok Google” on or off
On your phone or tablet, touch and hold the Home button or say “Ok Google.”
At the top right, tap More Settings.
Under “Devices,” select your phone or tablet.
Turn on Google Assistant turn “Ok Google” detection on or off.
DTT, you need to have a good lie down. Help is on the way.
player one
I dont read the crap being spouted by dtt unless repeated by others. that has got to be the funniest comment so far from the deluded dtt!!!
P1
Australia is a roo nation after all.
BB
i doubt anyone can help in this case. the delusion is strong
Victoria, Dave, well then, I’ll make sure I never discuss anything sensitive in the presence of my phone in the future.
Sam D. must have been on to it when he spoke to that Chinese fellow.
dave
could well be something like that. it happens on iphone as well as android phones
Every time I drive past a B&B down the road I get a phone message asking me to rate my stay there.
Same for Bunnings. Whenever I visit the local store, I receive a request to do a survey.
I’ve always assumed it’s because somewhere, some time I turned on “Location sensing”. But I’m buggered if I can figure out how to turn it off so that it stays off.
I can be watching a Youtube on my phone, transfer it to the TV, and the TV – even if turned off – will turn itself on to play the video from where I was up to.
Sheesh.