The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, and The Guardian report provides full primary votes for a change: both major parties are up two, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 6%, with the “others” vote presumably well down. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which tell a remarkably similar story to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up one to 43%, his best result since March 2016, and his disapproval is down two to 40%, his best since the eve of the July 2016 election; while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 31% and up one to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out to 42-25, compared with 41-27 last time.
The Essential poll also finds only 15% of respondents expect the government’s national energy guarantee will reduce power prices, compared with 22% for increasing them (down nine since the same question was asked last October) and 38% for making no difference (up seven). The government’s proposed tax cuts for big companies have 41% support, up four on a month or so ago, with 36% opposed, down one. Further on company tax cuts, The Australian has a comprehensive set of further results from the weekend’s Newspoll, which find respondents tending to be persuaded that the cuts will be good for employment (50% responded cuts would create more jobs versus 36% who said they would not, and 43% believed repealing them would put jobs at risk versus 37% saying they would not), yet 52% supported Bill Shorten saying cuts for businesses with $10 million to $50 million turnover would be repeated if won office, versus only 37% opposed.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.
I’m not necessarily advocating one over the other, just pointing out that it’s far more complex than ‘rice/cotton bad’.
It certainly is. I’ve no problem with opportunistic rice or cotton cropping, or melons or whatever else you can grow in a single season at a good margin.
But that also doesn’t preclude there being some outright bad elements to the water management/trading/allocation systems in place in the MDB, particularly in the D bit.
L is enjoying himself, BTW. He is getting more free publicity than he could otherwise wish for. And his target group of voters are, presumably, the same sort of silly old person that he is. He does not care about the other 85%. Just the ones who might vote for him.
Rex and peg bashing Labor but every day we on social welfare suffer because LNP cuts and restrictions.
Rex and Peg
You don’t talk for us and your party does not.
Bugger off with your attacks on Shorten or Labor.
LU
Yep. I think we are all on the same page with that.
I really don’t give a rats arse what Peg and Rex do or say. Why on earth do you people think they are important?
BiGD: “The proposed change for Corangamite was all about the fact that Lake Corangamite after which the electorate was named is no longer within the electorate. By naming electorates after people you don’t get this problem. ”
Not entirely: eg, the electorate of Macarthur no longer includes Camden, which is the ancestral seat of the Macarthurs.
And while the Greens bashing Labor.
LNP going ahead with Facial Recognition to identify US welfare receipts.
Pis off ya ll.
kakaru: “(2) I don’t believe “Melbourne Ports” includes any actual ports (and hasn’t for a long time).”
I think it includes Station Pier, which is pretty important to us Tasmanians, being the departure/arrival point for the Spirit of Tasmania from Devonport.
“should Gough Whitlam be obliterated from the records for his comment re Vietnamese boat people that he was “not having hundreds of f—— Vietnamese Balts coming into this country.” ”
Gough’s thinking was political, not racist – he feared that anti-communist Vietnamese would never vote Labor – just as many Baltic-state anti-communists (and in some cases full-blown actual fascists – their kids and grand kids are well represented in the LNP of today) were solidly and actively anti-labor. Gough’s record on multiculturalism and genuine dismantling of White Australia make clear he wasn’t racist.
Howard, on the other hand, was – according to Fraser – the only member of Fraser’s cabinet to oppose Vietnamese refugees coming into the country, and his motivations were racist (according to Fraser, as well as his behaviour ever since). Fraser was pretty amazing for his time in terms of not only refusing to politicise multiculturalism, but giving full bi-partisan support and continuing Gough’s policies. Howard, of course, was willing to play the race card and really dragged the nation backwards there. Remember that he lost support and the lib leadership in 1988 following comments about ‘I can understand if people think too many asians are coming into the country’ – we were a far more decent country pre-1996.
I expect Turnbull will be tempted to unleash Dutton to play the race card before the election. Hopefully the US backlash against what are essentially Australian-style Trump immigration policies (but without the media blackout and punitive laws against whistleblowers) will not make this the winner it has been for the past 20 years. Also, shorten and marles have basically pledged to be as big a bunch of C@#$s as the LNP on this, so there’s probably not as many points.
zoidlord: “LNP going ahead with Facial Recognition to identify US welfare receipts.”
Genuine question: what don’t you like about this idea?
If governments choose to use facial recognition to try to prevent welfare fraud, that seems reasonable to me. Or am I missing something?
Perhaps I’m tremendously naive, but I’m personally looking forward to the day when I don’t need to carry bits of paper and plastic around in a wallet and can use facial recognition or my fingerprint to buy things, withdraw cash, etc.
Zoidlord @ #303 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 2:56 pm
If the tax cuts were scrapped where would you direct the extra revenue to ?
sustainable future: “Gough’s thinking was political, not racist – he feared that anti-communist Vietnamese would never vote Labor.”
I really liked many, many things about Gough, but I don’t find that explanation makes me feel much better about what he said. Because what you are suggesting is that he thought “here are people legitimately fleeing from persecution and possible death, but I won’t help them because they won’t vote for me.” Not very nice IMO.
meher baba @ #310 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 3:15 pm
Facial recognition software is notoriously unreliable. Especially if you happen to belong to a minority racial subtype.
Tristo
Neither do I.
meher baba @ #307 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 12:08 pm
So what?
Peter Lewis on latest Essential report:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2018/jul/03/last-weeks-noise-has-had-little-impact-on-voters-losing-faith-in-government
BiGD: “So what?”
Well, so what if Corangamite doesn’t include Lake Corangamite?
Meher baba
You are either naive or unaware of English politician Bulwer-Lytton’s maxim- ” power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely”.
If this Law comes into force, people who support any anti- government protests in the streets will be identifiable to the State or Federal Police.
Of course it may deter criminals but will the identification and possible arrests of peaceful protesters of any kind be your idea of unfortunate “collateral damage”?
And you want to give that power to any government?
And another English politician, Samuel Johnson, said , ” those who choose security over liberty deserve neither”.
Player One: “Facial recognition software is notoriously unreliable. Especially if you happen to belong to a minority racial subtype.”
Why would that be? Can you provide sources?
Peter Brent
http://insidestory.org.au/niche-politics/
MB
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/09/technology/facial-recognition-race-artificial-intelligence.html
meher baba @ #318 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 12:33 pm
Because the electorate name and the place name can cause confusion as to where it is, no such confusion is created by your example of Macarthur.
That is the AEC’s reasoning for moving away from place names.
L needs considerably less than 50% 0f the vote to get back in.
He operates on exactly the same basic political principles as the Greens.
MB – I completely agree re: Gough being wrong to not want Vietnamese refugees – my point was that he wasn’t racist as has been implied.
what do you think of current Australian refugee policies that are both racist and inhumane?
So, what are the names of the commissioners who voted for an anti-semite?
Who appointed the commissioners who gave the big tick to an anti-semite?
Onebobsworth: “If this Law comes into force, people who support any anti- government protests in the streets will be identifiable to the State or Federal Police. Of course it may deter criminals but will the identification and possible arrests of peaceful protesters of any kind be your idea of unfortunate “collateral damage”? And you want to give that power to any government?”
Many of my friends who are further to the left than I am (in other words, most of my friends) used to be very concerned about surveillance cameras. But all of them seemed to be pretty happy when the cameras were used to catch the guy who killed Eurydice Dixon.
Aeons ago – when I was of a mind to attend political rallies protesting about this, that and the other – I always observed people in business clothes who were taking lots and lots of photos of everyone who was there. Presumably they were from ASIO or Special Branch or some such outfit. So there’s nothing particularly new about this type of surveillance. And, if facial recognition software helps the process along, you can be pretty certain it is already being used.
Meher Baba
NIST found that there is a racial bias. However it depends where the systems are developed be it China, US or wherever as to which “minority” it is biased against. However there is a bigger problem
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/15/uk-police-use-of-facial-recognition-technology-failure
.
“Face recognition police tools ‘staggeringly inaccurate’
By Chris Foxx
Technology reporter”
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44089161
MeherBaba
“Well, so what if Corangamite doesn’t include Lake Corangamite?”
Werriwa doesn’t include Werriwa (Lake George).
Having said that, I’d prefer that electorates named after geographical locations include the places they’re named after. That goes for Corangamite too.
Leyonhelm got in because 1 in 5 Liberal voters in NSW failed a comprehension test in 2013. Then cunning Malcolm held a DD. He will not be re-elected.
The LNP manage the Murray Darling as they do the economy: its just trickle down and bugger the consequences.
Meher
The problem with all privacy breaches is not when they are used for the proper purpose but when they are misused.
It is probable that for 50 years we could use facial recognition quite properly but then come one over zealous political person who traces back say a protest you were at 50 years ago (say combining a photograph and today’s facial technology) to declare that you are a suspected terrororist (say for a green protest) and deny you the vote, or worse.
We never realise there is a problem until someone misuses it, but sure as eggs someone WILL.
Technology is often released and found to be faulty. It’s then adjusted as these faults are realised.
If we junked a technology because it was initially unreliable, we’d be still working with rocks.
sustainable future: “what do you think of current Australian refugee policies that are both racist and inhumane?”
I suspect you’ll be sorry you asked this.
For me it’s different strokes for different folks. The Vietnamese refugees who came here in the 1970s fled Vietnam for their lives and experienced great hardship during their ocean voyages. It was entirely right for them to be allowed to settle here.
The people who arrived in large numbers in northern Australia after the first Rudd Government made the ill-advised decision to remove the controls, and some of whom remain in offshore detention, came to Australia by flying as a commercial airline passenger to Indonesia from (mostly) Iran, Pakistan and Bangladesh and then paying many thousands of dollars to people smugglers to take them on a short (albeit dangerous) journey across the Arafura Sea in boats. Some of them have been assessed to have legitimate claims to refugee status on the basis of a fear of persecution in their home country, but few if any of them were fleeing for their lives in the manner that the Vietnamese were in the 1970s (or for that matter, many of the refugees from Lebanon and Central America who arrived in the same period). Refugee advocates like to use the term “fleeing persecution” in relation to any asylum seeker, but there are different intensities of meaning for different people.
There are many, many tens of millions of people around the world who would like to migrate to first world countries (why wouldn’t they?), and who are prepared to risk their own lives and those of their families in trying to do so. When they arrive in a country in large numbers, they become difficult to manage and even more difficult to send away if, as many refugee advocates would wish to see, governments are to adopt a “beyond reasonable doubt” approach to deporting anyone who has claimed asylum after arrival in a first world country.
The combination of boat turnbacks and offshore detention is a harsh policy regime, but IMO it is the only proven way of stopping the problem from getting out of control. The current approaches adopted in the US and Europe are definitely not working, and are causing significant political difficulties for European leaders in particular.
If we were to allow any of the people on Manus or Nauru to settle in Australia – even if we could confine this only to those who have been granted refugee status – it would almost certainly kickstart the people trafficking trade from Indonesia.
The positive side of these harsh policies is that they have allowed the Australian Government to focus more of its attention on resettling refugees who have been deemed by the UNHCR to have a very high priority for resettlement in a first world country. The number of these taken has been increased on several occasions over recent years.
Geographical place names do cause confusion. Especially where they overlap with local councils or state electorates of the same or similar names. For instance the council of North Sydney does not align with the federal electorate. Previously the federal electorate of Warringah covered about 75% of the council of Warringah and 90% of Mosman Council. People in that 25% of Warringah didnt often realise they were in Mackellar.
meher baba @ #319 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 3:34 pm
Google is your friend …
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601786/are-face-recognition-systems-accurate-depends-on-your-race/
https://www.cnet.com/news/facial-recognition-software-inaccurate-in-98-of-metropolitan-police-cases-reports/
There are many more similar links.
zoomster @ #332 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 4:11 pm
And if we adopt technology prematurely that is known to be deeply flawed, we are simply idiots.
meher baba @ #319 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 3:34 pm
Because programmers are predominately white male bastards. We only know how to write code to recognize the faces of other white male bastards, partly because we’re too lazy to go and find some non-white faces to test on.
@meher baba
Centrelink can’t even properly administrate themselves in a transparent way, let alone identify issues or problems.
The problems isn’t US welfare receipts, the problem is policy and those who abuse it.
For example, in my case, I have been fighting problems majority of the time with Centrelink, and had to go all the way to AAT tribunal to get it sorted.
Something that shouldn’t need to be fixed in the first place, yet they keep adding a later on top of layer to make more problems later down the track.
Welfare Card Trial (costs over $10,000 per person to admin).
Now they going CCTV on us with fascial reconfiguration, which is not advanced enough (can’t identify twins, and other problems – look at what the phones have done so far with it).
It also adds another layer of security and privacy issues.
I can throw more issues than you can poke a stick at if you want me to continue!
They don’t even both fixing their existing bullshit without adding new layers to the problem.
I mean wtf guys? A blind Freddy should see this.
I mean also wtf guys, they haven’t even fixed RoboDebt yet?
Counsel Assisting, Rowena Orr QC, is constructing a slow motion train wreck with this rather weak representative from an outfit selling funeral insurance to aboriginal communities.
http://webstreaming.lawinorder.com.au/fsrc
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/03/toddler-born-on-nauru-to-be-brought-to-australia-for-vital-health-tests?CMP=share_btn_tw
As Carlton just said … Dutton will be chewing the carpet (with anger)
ar
It is a problem with all manner of ‘bastards’ not just the ‘whities’
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/04/the-underlying-bias-of-facial-recognition-systems/476991/
Fair enough. We’re all insular bastards, regardless of ethnic background.
Meher
Now for ME the problem with refugees is not the way they arrive or the path they travel but the general fuzziness as to what constitutes a refugee.
The thing is that EVERY refugee will have some sort of a mixture of genuine political motives, genuine fear of persecution, social factors and economic factors. The problem is just what constitutes enough fear to be worthy of being a refugee.
It is high time that international bodies got their bloody heads together and decided just what is a refugee.
It is not easy and I favour some sort of a points classification such that everyone may be judged a refugee but will not have enough points for relocation.
To get what I mean consider this. A man may be a political activist and clearly in fear of his life if he returns home. He may be known to be a political activist. OK he scores maximum points. (say 100 just for an idea). His wife however has never been active and there is no sense that the particular place would persecute her. (OK not common but let us assume). So she would NOT score highly as a refugee – say 10 points for being the wife of a refugee. Her status would be low, although she may well acquire immigration rights via family reunion but NOT rights as a refugee. This could be very relevant in some Muslim countries where there may be several wives. One wife may score very low. Another may have a brother or father also an activist (so she might score 20 or 30 or perhaps have been slightly active herself also. In this case she may score 60 points or more.
The man may have a daughter. She would get the 10 points from her father, but she perhaps was a student activist. Not actively involved in sedition but publishing stuff and joint in outlawed groups. She would perhaps score 80 or 90. Her brother however may have some solidly pro government friends and be known to oppose his father’s views. he may well score only 10 or so points. Unless of course the regime uses family at home to terrorise the expats into silence. In this case all the family would get close to maximum scores. However PROOF would be needed.
If the persecution is of a whole ethnic group then other factors should also be considered. How much time has elapsed since the last serious events, what exaclty is the nature of the persecution and what scope there is for return home. For example a child of an ethnic minority persecuted 50 years ago, but with no recent instances or persecution, might get a very low score but if the persecution was more recent (say last 10 years, then the score would be very high.
If we has some sort of a system like this there would be no need for people smugglers etc. There would be just a system. Those with high scores get settled. Those with middling scores can choose to wait, those with low scores can return home.
This suggests that the conditions in which an algorithm is created—particularly the racial makeup of its development team and test photo databases—can influence the accuracy of its results.
That has to be one of the least surprising results in AI research that I’ve ever seen.
Can someone organise to send Leyonhjelm on a one person parliamentary mission to examine the Hawaiian volcano from inside the crater?
@citizen
Leyonhjelm is crazy brave I have to admit that, either his career is going to rise or crash and burn. I believe there a surprising number of people who share sentiments similar to him, especially given that Sarah Hanson is from a party considered the minions of the devil by these folk.
You’re assuming the Liberals see that as something to be fixed. Far more likely that it is working exactly as intended.
citizen @ #346 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 1:48 pm
Poor misunderstood David, truly you are the people’s champion.
Watch out Pauline and Cory!!! 🙂
JimmyD @ #350 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 1:53 pm
Yep and there lies the problem.