Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Both parties up on the primary vote in the latest Essential poll, which concurs with Newspoll in finding Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings edging upwards and Bill Shorten’s edging down.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, and The Guardian report provides full primary votes for a change: both major parties are up two, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 6%, with the “others” vote presumably well down. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which tell a remarkably similar story to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up one to 43%, his best result since March 2016, and his disapproval is down two to 40%, his best since the eve of the July 2016 election; while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 31% and up one to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out to 42-25, compared with 41-27 last time.

The Essential poll also finds only 15% of respondents expect the government’s national energy guarantee will reduce power prices, compared with 22% for increasing them (down nine since the same question was asked last October) and 38% for making no difference (up seven). The government’s proposed tax cuts for big companies have 41% support, up four on a month or so ago, with 36% opposed, down one. Further on company tax cuts, The Australian has a comprehensive set of further results from the weekend’s Newspoll, which find respondents tending to be persuaded that the cuts will be good for employment (50% responded cuts would create more jobs versus 36% who said they would not, and 43% believed repealing them would put jobs at risk versus 37% saying they would not), yet 52% supported Bill Shorten saying cuts for businesses with $10 million to $50 million turnover would be repeated if won office, versus only 37% opposed.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Everyone else condemns the Nauruan government for banning an ABC camera operator but naturally Turnbull goes to water.

    Nauru is refusing to let an ABC camera operator cover Malcolm Turnbull’s visit to the tiny island nation because the ABC is an “activist media organisation”.

    The rejection has drawn condemnation from Labor leader Bill Shorten, the Australian and New Zealand press galleries and the Vanuatu Daily Post but Malcolm Turnbull is refusing to intervene.

    “It is up to Nauru. We respect their sovereignty but obviously we prefer to have events like this open to all the media,” the prime minister told reporters in Sydney on Monday.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/nauru-blames-activist-abc-for-media-ban/news-story/83ba91ddbe32912a0842975a40dcd07c

  2. A feature, not a bug.

    Re Leyonhelm, I have seen many an interview with him from the members of the CPG, which treated him with respect, as someone whose opinion was worth listening to, a player.

    Did he just develop the character traits that we are currently witnessing, or did these journalists know all about them all along and chose to keep them from us?

    Sounds familiar.

  3. Facial recognition for welfare recipients is more of the same Robodebt disaster, but now they have to prove who they are before they can start to argue for their payments.

  4. citizen @ #351 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 4:58 pm

    Everyone else condemns the Nauruan government for banning an ABC camera operator but naturally Turnbull goes to water.

    Nauru is refusing to let an ABC camera operator cover Malcolm Turnbull’s visit to the tiny island nation because the ABC is an “activist media organisation”.

    The rejection has drawn condemnation from Labor leader Bill Shorten, the Australian and New Zealand press galleries and the Vanuatu Daily Post but Malcolm Turnbull is refusing to intervene.

    “It is up to Nauru. We respect their sovereignty but obviously we prefer to have events like this open to all the media,” the prime minister told reporters in Sydney on Monday.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/nauru-blames-activist-abc-for-media-ban/news-story/83ba91ddbe32912a0842975a40dcd07c

    Perhaps Nauru are just acting on the orders of our Govt… ?

  5. @Barney

    Indeed.

    Also we already have so many ways to identify us to begin with.

    They just making us criminals because to pander to the fascist right (Dutton, Hanson & Co).

  6. “Perhaps Nauru are just acting on the orders of our Govt… ?”
    Turnbull and co are most likely the biggest losers if certain truths come out, so are probably behind it, not that the ABC would ever say boo to Malcolm.

  7. adrian @ #352 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 4:59 pm

    A feature, not a bug.

    Re Leyonhelm, I have seen many an interview with him from the members of the CPG, which treated him with respect, as someone whose opinion was worth listening to, a player.

    Did he just develop the character traits that we are currently witnessing, or did these journalists know all about them all along and chose to keep them from us?

    Sounds familiar.

    We are not bemused!

  8. Sohar

    If there was any influence from here the Uber Tuber would my prime suspect and if he did I wonder if he would bother to tell or check with Mal.

  9. Greens are also silent about Nauru banning ABC I see. Haven’t heard a peep from RDN.

    We really do need a party like the democrats back in Australia to be a alternative 3rd party.

    Greens had the chance but have blown it under RDN, no statements on what should be their core ground, killing of whales, the rare giraffe shot the problems with koalas.

    Best chance would be a prominent Labor or liberal like the old Chipp setting up a new party.

  10. Rex Douglas says Tuesday, July 3, 2018 at 5:30 pm

    Perhaps Nauru are just acting on the orders of our Govt… ?

    I don’t see any reason why the Australian Government would have asked for this. I can see why the Nauruan Government might want to block the ABC given the seeming dislike of democracy and criticism exhibited by the current President of that country.

  11. “I don’t see any reason why the Australian Government would have asked for this. I can see why the Nauruan Government might want to block the ABC given the seeming dislike of democracy and criticism exhibited by the current President of that country.”

    From my understanding it’s the current AG that is the real power and the one most likely to be behind the move. Otherwise, you are on the right track.

  12. “Perhaps Nauru are just acting on the orders of our Govt… ?”

    Has the stench of Mr Potato Head about it as far as I am concerned.

  13. bc

    The likes of the Uber Tuber are extremely sensitive to criticism of the camps and a real “fan” of the ABC ‘commies’. The Coalition learnt a big lesson under Howard. At all costs keep the refugees in camps out of sigh and out of mind. Howard experienced all sorts of problems when photos/reports/videos started appearing from inside the camps.

  14. Poroti: “If there was any influence from here the Uber Tuber would my prime suspect and if he did I wonder if he would bother to tell or check with Mal”

    I did say Malcolm and co. As you say, it was probably the potato behind the throne; Truffles is usually too busy monitoring his stash of cash via video link from the Caymans.

  15. Boris @ #362 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 2:48 pm

    Greens are also silent about Nauru banning ABC I see. Haven’t heard a peep from RDN.

    We really do need a party like the democrats back in Australia to be a alternative 3rd party.

    Greens had the chance but have blown it under RDN, no statements on what should be their core ground, killing of whales, the rare giraffe shot the problems with koalas.

    Best chance would be a prominent Labor or liberal like the old Chipp setting up a new party.

    What do you mean?

    I thought Cory was filling this void? 🙂

  16. Boerwar

    When camps were on the mainland I remember when some footage and reports from inside one of the camps started appearing. A number from journos and local activists. Amazingly even The Australian started to pile in on the crapness of the situation for refugees. The Liberals learned a lesson. Do whatever it takes to keep ‘reffos’ out of sight of the public’s eye. It has worked a treat. So much easier to demonise and crap on faceless people.

  17. BiGD
    Old Dems were good until Cheryl left, then Meg rolled over on gst for fees and books then they turned into an episode of days of our lives.

    Cory, Lenyjon Pauline always be around in one fringe form.

    Greens were ok under Brown, maybe Bandt should form the third party we need, Green Democrats, drag a couple of Labor and or libs into it or go alone.
    Leave RDN to bash Labor.

  18. Abbott is becoming quite embarrassing with his increasingly shrill “look at me, look at me”.

    Still, he is keeping talk of #libleadershipchallenge alive!

    BREAKING
    Abandon emissions targets, Abbott urges

    5:46PM JOE KELLY
    In his boldest attack on the Turnbull government, Tony Abbott has called on Australia to exit the Paris climate agreement. (Oz headline)

  19. citizen @ #357 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    Abbott is becoming quite embarrassing with his increasingly shrill “look at me, look at me”.

    Still, he is keeping talk of #libleadershipchallenge alive!

    BREAKING
    Abandon emissions targets, Abbott urges

    5:46PM JOE KELLY
    In his boldest attack on the Turnbull government, Tony Abbott has called on Australia to exit the Paris climate agreement. (Oz headline)

    I get an odd feeling about this. I think Abbott has been out for so long now that he actually reinforces Turnbull when he does his look-at-me. By comparison Turnbull is the smart steady reliable one. If Abbott faded away then more focus might go onto Turnbull. Just a feeling. (sad face)

  20. Turnbull alleged to be a “pussy” by Leyonhjelm.

    Is that in the Trump sense or the Mrs. Slocombe sense?

  21. Late Riser

    I get an odd feeling about this. I think Abbott has been out for so long now that he actually reinforces Turnbull when he does his look-at-me. By comparison Turnbull is the smart steady reliable one. If Abbott faded away then more focus might go onto Turnbull. Just a feeling. (sad face)

    __________________________________________

    I’ve been saying this for some time. Every time Abbott pops up he reminds the general public to be grateful to Trumble for sacking him.

  22. Let’s not forget….

    May 2015: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-28/barns-newhouse-detention-centre-secrecy-just-got-even-worse/6501086

    “Seven days ago, a new Commonwealth law came into force. Called the Australian Border Force Act 2015, this legislation will have far-reaching and disturbing consequences for the scrutiny of immigration detention centres and the treatment of asylum seekers by the media, professional groups, international human rights bodies and NGOs.

    The Australian Border Force Act, supported by the ALP and opposed only by the Greens, effectively turns the Department of Immigration into a secret security organisation with police powers. Although the Act seems to be directed at Customs operations, it also seeks to regulate and control access to information about asylum seekers in immigration detention.

    Under the Act, it is a criminal offence, punishable by imprisonment of up to two years, for any person working directly or indirectly for the Department of Immigration and Border Protection to reveal to the media or any other person or organisation (the only exceptions being the Immigration Department and other Commonwealth agencies, police, coroners) anything that happens in detention centres like Nauru and Manus Island.”

  23. Let’s not forget.

    On Abbott’s first full day as Liberal leader, the Greens inexplicably delivered him an enormous strategic victory, voting with him to defeat Rudd’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. This short-sighted tactical manoeuvre allowed Abbott to begin to build the momentum that has hamstrung long-term climate action for almost a decade. Had the CPRS passed the parliament in 2009, an emissions trading scheme would likely have been operating for some years before Abbott was able to become prime minister. And it’s likely that Abbott would not have been able to build a platform to tear down such a large reform after that time.

  24. let’s not forget

    If it were not for the Greens siding with the Coalition the people on Manus and Nauru would now be free after spending a short period of time in Malaysia.

  25. Let’s not forget
    If it were not for the Greens parking the environmental vote out of harm’s way, the environment would be in far better condition than it is now.

  26. @mikehilliard

    Not to mention Kevin Rudd not going to a double dissolution election after the senate rejecting the carbon trading emissions scheme which the government was elected on.

  27. “which concurs with Newspoll in finding Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings edging upwards and Bill Shorten’s edging down”….

    So, let me see, Newspoll 51% ALP, Essential 52% ALP… But hey, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are edging upwards….

    Question: Why is that this incredible upward trend in Turnbull’s ratings is NOT translating into votes for the Liberal party?…. No? Not interested in even asking the question?…. Then Turnbull should call the Federal election this year, surely he is curious to listen to the answer from the People themselves!…. 🙂

  28. Look on the bright side.

    If he is not sacked and he is stuck at home that means there is one less archbishop on the loose.

  29. Barney in Go Dau @ #373 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 7:01 pm

    Boerwar @ #392 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 3:59 pm

    What’s the difference between mansplaining and womansplaining?

    I’m not sure it’s my place to say! 🙂

    OK. I’ll have a go.
    1) You are Trolling.
    2) Mansplaining is a clever word invented to describe the tradition of a man talking over a woman to “correct” her mistaken opinion about being a woman.
    3) Womansplaining is a not-so-clever word invented in response to the clever word to defend against the idea that mansplaining is a problem by insisting on a false equivalence.
    4) Womansplaining is also an ironically self-referential example of mansplaining.

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