Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A slight gain for the Coalition from the latest Newspoll, as Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings maintain their improving trend.

Newspoll has the Coalition gaining a point on last fortnight to narrow the gap to 51-49, maintaining a pattern over the past six polls of movement back and forth between 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, only the second time it has reached that level since early November 2016 (the previous such occasion being three polls ago), while Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 37% and 9% respectively, and One Nation is steady on 6%. However, a straightforward application of 2016 election preferences, rather than the more Coalition-friendly split of One Nation preferences that Newspoll has adopted reflecting recent state election results, would still leave Labor’s lead at 52-48.

Perhaps the best news for the government is a two point increase in Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating to 42%, which is his best result from Newspoll since March 2016, while his disapproval is down two to 48%, its lowest since the poll on the eve of the July 2016 election. Conversely, Bill Shorten is down one on approval 32% and up two on disapproval to 57%, although Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-31. The poll was conducted THursday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

659 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. How anyone can take anything that just about anyone in the CPG (with a couple of exceptions and none in the MSM) says seriously, including Murphy is an ongoing mystery.

    They are the worst of the worst of journalism in this country and a positive threat to democracy.

  5. ratsak says:

    Bezos didn’t get where he is by putting in place the world’s most enlightened industrial relations systems.

    Not to mention some of the people he works for. You don’t get these sort of contracts without being totally on board with ‘The Establishment”. As you allude to he sure is at one with their attitude to the treatment of employees.

    The Details About the CIA’s Deal With Amazon

    A $600 million computing cloud built by an outside company is a “radical departure” for the risk-averse intelligence community.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/07/the-details-about-the-cias-deal-with-amazon/374632/

  6. The only option for voters who are community minded is to preference minor progressive parties.

    It’s clear the major parties are consumed with themselves.

  8. Thanks Leroy.

    55% of total think it’s unfair for Bill Shorten to attack Malcolm Turnbull for having been successful in his business career.

    35% of Labor supporters think it’s unfair.

    Make of that what you will..

  10. The chorus of professional mourners deserve congratulations for their persistence, but are they willing to jump into the graves of the defeated pollies after the election?

  12. ratsak @ #150 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:28 am

    Bezos didn’t get where he is by putting in place the world’s most enlightened industrial relations systems.

    He’d look at a chancer like Trumble and think ‘wimp’.

    This is the great white hope of progressive (or even just barely honest) media?

    FMD, at best he’d throw a few bones as a market differentiation strategy until he had enough of a dominant position to turn the screws. Why would he act differently to what’s worked for him before?

    Noblesse Oblige is not going to save us. If you want to understand wealth use that same method you would for anyone else. Keating had the right of it – always back the horse called self-interest.

    Not exactly correct. You can’t conflate the Bezos IR brush, which is an abomination, with the philanthropic, hands-off editorial policy as the Publisher of The Washington Post. To do so is silly and too easy.

    Or, would you prefer Trump’s media cronies own and control everything and we just mutter darkly and ineffectively about it?

  13. @Rex Douglas

    So are the Coalition, seriously the Abbott-Turnbull government will be seen by future generations as one of the worst governments Australia bgever had.

  14. Pegasus @ #161 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:46 am

    Perhaps NSW ALP is overwhelmingly dominated by the Labor Right?

    Effectively is a better word. 🙂

    Plus, even if you are nominally with Centre Unity, you can still hold positions sympathetic to the Left. Especially on social issues. What’s not to like? 🙂

  17. C@tmomma @ #157 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:43 am

    Rex Douglas @ #152 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:34 am

    C@tmomma @ #146 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:24 am

    I also note that on the weekend ‘Albo’ was a much-diminished presence. No one likes a Labor Rat.

    So Labor continues to be consumed with division and factionalism. Hopeless.

    No, that’s Albo’s schtick. Everyone else is on a unity ticket. 🙂

    So there’s a rat in the ranks but we’re all on a unity ticket.

    Labor logic.

  20. lizzie @ #168 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:57 am

    Stephen Koukoulas
    ‏22 hours ago

    Wayne Swan this morning noted inequality as not only an issue of fairness and decency, but as an issue impacting economic growth. The OECD found a 1% rise in inequality lowers GDP by 0.6-1.1% http://www.oecd.org/economy/growth-and-inequality-close-relationship.htm …

    Jobs’n’growth starting to look like a failed mantra, eh Mal?

    Wayne Swan presides over a neo-lib philosophy.

  22. Rexyy
    “”The only option for voters who are community minded is to preference minor progressive parties.””
    You might as well not bother voting, as the minor parties will never be in GOVERNMENT!!.
    Total waste of time!.

  23. Pegasus @ #137 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 11:19 am

    “Australians told us that their trust of the ABC is driven by its lack of bias and impartiality, quality journalism and ethics. While their distrust of Facebook and Social Media is driven by fake news, manipulated truth, false statistics and fake audience measurement.”

    Privatising the ABC would fix this.

  24. Murdoch shares with Trump (for whose rise he must also bear some responsibility) “the trait of underestimating the intelligence of the general public, and not going broke”. And for all of the energy spent on predicting Murdoch’s demise, his influence will unfortunately outlive us all.

    Take a look at The Monthly’s July issue

  28. poroti @ #38 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 8:10 am

    This Pulitzer winning writer has a gloomy view of the future for the US.

    The Coming Collapse
    ” rel=”nofollow”>
    The Trump administration did not rise, prima facie, like Venus on a half shell from the sea. Donald Trump is the result of a long process of political, cultural and social decay. He is a product of our failed democracy. The longer we perpetuate the fiction that we live in a functioning democracy, that Trump and the political mutations around him are somehow an aberrant deviation that can be vanquished in the next election, the more we will hurtle toward tyranny. The problem is not Trump. It is a political system, dominated by corporate power and the mandarins of the two major political parties, in which we don’t count.

    ……………….Trump has tapped into the hatred that huge segments of the American public have for a political and economic system that has betrayed them. He may be inept, degenerate, dishonest and a narcissist, but he adeptly ridicules the system they despise. His cruel and demeaning taunts …………

    https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-coming-collapse/

    This is an excellent article. Thanks.

  29. SH-Y via Twitter

    Thank you for all the words of support and care; they mean a lot to me. I am seeking legal advice – as many of you have suggested. As a woman, a sister and a mother, I will continue to stand up. I will not be intimidated or bullied by offensive & sexist slurs.

  30. We’ll see how illogical and how stupid before long…..
    If we were to block all the illogical stupidity here there’d be 2 or 3 posters left …and William
    Harden up, there’s a little way to go yet.

  31. Looks like the anti-Trump leftist will win in Mexico as expected. Guess they definitely won’t be paying for that border wall now.

  32. Blocking other opinions, like not reading Fairfax or Guardian because of an individual is nuts. You mob are just like Trumpists in reverse.

  34. Andrew Earlwood,
    Ruefully, our quixotic hope for a centre-left major news outlet, is one that obsessed me ever since Keating gifted Emperor Murdoch the keys to 70% of print coverage in revenge against FairFax running a strident campaign regarding Keating’s ownership of a piggery.

    Alas, the cable/satellite news revolution in America spawned the enormously powerful FoxNews. Nevertheless, opinion polling and a plethora of Emmy Awards since 2001 showed John Stewart’s ‘Daily Show’ became the most trusted source of information. Recently, MSNBC’s evening lineup driven by Rachel Maddow has caught up with Fox and surpassed it with 21 to 45 year olds. Here, ruefully again, Austar and Foxtel merged to gift Murdoch another monopoly, so SkyNews has lurched even further into rightwing tabloid propaganda for evening programs. The Paul Murray’s are the new Piers Ackerman’s.

    Cometh the revolution in significant news websites such as ‘Huffington Post’ and then here when a Murdochian inebriate whacked my favourite website’s truth-to-power-speaker at the Walkley Awards, my quixotic hopes to combat the Murdochian Empire were reignited. I’ll leave it to Bludgers with far, far superior knowledge of the media than I to prognosticate whether these hopes will be dashed yet again.

  39. Ratsak:

    “Bezos didn’t get where he is by putting in place the world’s most enlightened industrial relations systems.

    He’d look at a chancer like Trumble and think ‘wimp’.

    This is the great white hope of progressive (or even just barely honest) media?

    FMD, at best he’d throw a few bones as a market differentiation strategy until he had enough of a dominant position to turn the screws. Why would he act differently to what’s worked for him before?

    Noblesse Oblige is not going to save us. If you want to understand wealth use that same method you would for anyone else. Keating had the right of it – always back the horse called self-interest.”

    I am not counting on a benevolent industrialist to ‘save us’.

    I’m just speculating that someone who is either cashed up or has access to real capital, but is not captured by the robber-baron/rum corp mentality that pervades our local business clique, will think “what the actual fuck?” when looking at the Australian media landscape. Money is money and backing self interest must mean there is a massive business case to invest in a market blind spot, even if it means editorialsing in favour of maintaining reasonable levels of tax and social services.

  41. https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/mexico-ruling-party-s-meade-concedes-defeat-wishes-lopez-obrador-well-20180702-p4zoyy.html

    López Obrador, a former mayor of Mexico City, represents an emphatic rejection of the traditional political parties and politicians whom he regularly calls the “mafia of power”. In recent decades, Mexico has been led by technocrats and pro-American politicians, while López Obrador’s role models are Mexican independence and revolutionary leaders who stood up to more powerful foreign countries.

  42. lizzie @ #183 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 12:17 pm

    I can appreciate logical argument, but some statements are the equivalent of a + b = a.

    That statement can be true, if/when ‘b’ is 0.

    Lovey @ #182 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 12:17 pm

    Blocking other opinions, like not reading Fairfax or Guardian because of an individual is nuts. You mob are just like Trumpists in reverse.

    Nope. There’s an intrinsic difference between spewing lies and ignoring facts, and ignoring people intent on spewing lies and ignoring facts. One of those groups is acting rationally, the other is not. One of those groups possesses merit, the other does not.

    Your false-equivalence argument, however, is quite Trumpist. Pretty much a straight rehash of “there was violence on both sides”.

  43. Math pedant:

    a + b = a

    No problem with that! What if b =0? Or a = ∞ or – ∞?

    More generally, you actually just went most of the way to defining an algebraic group called an idempotent semiring.

    Actually that’s a good term of abuse. “The CPG is just an idempotent semiring, adding more and more without changing the final result…”

    😛

  45. LU

    “The CPG is just an idempotent semiring, adding more and more without changing the final result…”

    I like it.
    My b was indeed 0. Meaningless statement added brings no revelation.

  46. a r,

    I see your argument and raise you to the floating point precision of the computing machine of your choice.

  47. Afternoon bludgers
    Back from my trip and glad to be back. No place like home.
    Although not too pleased with latest newspoll result.

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