Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A slight gain for the Coalition from the latest Newspoll, as Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings maintain their improving trend.

Newspoll has the Coalition gaining a point on last fortnight to narrow the gap to 51-49, maintaining a pattern over the past six polls of movement back and forth between 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, only the second time it has reached that level since early November 2016 (the previous such occasion being three polls ago), while Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 37% and 9% respectively, and One Nation is steady on 6%. However, a straightforward application of 2016 election preferences, rather than the more Coalition-friendly split of One Nation preferences that Newspoll has adopted reflecting recent state election results, would still leave Labor’s lead at 52-48.

Perhaps the best news for the government is a two point increase in Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating to 42%, which is his best result from Newspoll since March 2016, while his disapproval is down two to 48%, its lowest since the poll on the eve of the July 2016 election. Conversely, Bill Shorten is down one on approval 32% and up two on disapproval to 57%, although Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-31. The poll was conducted THursday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

659 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. About to go to dinner with some Greek Aussies who own a house just up from where I stay here on Serifos, she is a wonderful cook so looking forward to it. They own a winery in Victoria .

  3. Of course Mal has a >PM approval rating.
    As a Labor person I think he is the bees knees of a Lib PM. Suits me for him to stay the Lib leader.

    Besides, Mal paid for the position. He should keep it.

    Fair is fair.

  11. Morning all. As with the previous Reachtell this is still in MOE. Shorten’s tax flip flop would not have helped but neither would Turnbull’s desire to cut taxes for the wealthy.

  13. Adelaide Uni administration (who outnumber teaching and research staff combined) try to deny the idiotic ad they dreamt up and approved.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-01/university-of-adelaide-distances-itself-from-mansplaining-ad/9928774?WT.ac=statenews_sa

    When will a cash hungry government start cost cutting in an area where it can do some good – like uni admin? I have never encountered a more out of touch and inefficient bureaucracy, answerable to none.

  15. Socrates
    $200k pa ? Positively struggle street compared to this hard done by family.

    Taxes that deter mothers from working are unfair

    Before July 1, even a family with income of more than $350,000 a year was entitled to a childcare rebate of $7500 a year for each child. As of July 1, because of a new means test and activity test, that’s no longer the case.

    Paula, a Victorian engineer and her husband, who jointly earn more than $350,000,……..

    ……………………. family is still entitled to turn up to any public hospital in the country and be treated the same way as everyone else. Similarly, their children can attend any public school in their catchment area free of charge.

    Yet it is considered controversial for a well-off family to receive a subsidy for early childhood education and care.

    https://outline.com/bbvKzg

  16. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Did you catch this gem about Malcolm Turnbull in Bill’s speech yesterday?

    Apparently, back in the day, Malcolm Turnbull reached out through Neville Wran to see if he could become…

    ….Secretary of the AWU! 😀

  18. From the previous thread:

    michael (AnonBlock)
    Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 12:55 am
    Comment #1507
    Why would you call an early election. You would have to be a total idiot. The budget and the economy are all improving. A May 2019 election is the way to go, do Shorten slowly and everything else is garbage.

    Um, the Coalition have been trying for the last 5 years! I guess they’ll keep trying in Opposition too. With the same amount of success. 😉

  19. It’s time -time for one of doyley’s This is all to be expected , maintain the faith posts. Group therapy is very popular on pb.

    Sadly the objective reality is labor has flatlined Under it’s present leadership. One per cent primary vote improvement in 2 years from 36 to 37does not an election victory maketh.

  20. Implicit in your comment, Edwina, is the LNP are so crap that Labor should have improved their PV by a lot more than they have.

  21. Meanwhile, in New Zealand, hive heists are an epidemic. There the motive is manuka honey, a highly prized variety that goes for $150 a kilogram (or 2.2 pounds), and authorities suspect an organized crime syndicate may be to blame. “It doesn’t matter if it’s beekeeping or meth; this is just the new gold rush,” one apiary manager told Reuters.

    …Today’s commercial beekeeper can never relax. He can expect to lose 30 percent of his bee stock every year, from bad flower years, pesticides, disease, and bears, which really do love honey, just like the cartoons say. Climate change is a problem, especially as it pertains to drought, because bees need lots of water. They both drink it and collect it to take back to the hives for the queen and her nurses, which is why you always find bees floating in pools and buzzing around leaky sinks.

    …Back in 2013, a Whole Foods in Rhode Island wanted people to recognize how important bees are to their daily diet. For a few days, the market removed all produce that grew on plants that depend on pollinators. More than half of the section was empty: 237 of 453 products in the section, or 52 percent of the store’s produce, were gone.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-26/how-to-steal-50-million-bees

  22. Oh I do agree Maude. An effective opposition should be ahead something like 55-56 2ppv. It’s the weakness of labor that has allowed the turnbully to stay competitive.

  23. Edwina you try to put Shorten and the Labor party down all the time, give it a break, they have and are in front 2pp for over two years now, being a Labor persons if it was the other way round( God forbid) I would at least congratulate them on that alone

  24. One out of touch group of elitists competing against another out of touch group of elitists Vanessa. What’s to celebrate or congratulate ?

  25. The number of native birds in an area declines by half with the loss of every 5 mature eucalypts. So how can we keep old trees in cities?

    In urban landscapes, many consider large and old eucalypts a dangerous nuisance that drop limbs, crack footpaths and occupy space that could be used for housing. But when we remove these trees they are effectively lost forever. It takes at least 100-200 years before a eucalypt reaches ecological maturity.

    As trees mature, their branches become large and begin to grow horizontally rather than vertically, which is more attractive to many birds as perches and platforms where they can construct a nest.
    Wildlife also use cavities inside ageing eucalypts. These are formed as the heartwood – the dead wood in the centre – decays. When a limb breaks it exposes cavities where the heartwood once occurred.
    This is such a ubiquitous process in our forests that around 300 of Australia’s vertebrate species, such as possums, owls, ducks, parrots and bats, have evolved to use these cavities as exclusive places to roost or nest.

    Mature trees also support high concentrations of food for animals that feed on nectar, such as honeyeaters, or seed, such as parrots.

    https://theconversation.com/smart-city-planning-can-preserve-old-trees-and-the-wildlife-that-needs-them-98632

  26. That assumes a level playing field, Edwina, which it clearly is not.
    Murdoch’s control of the media, plus the fear politicians have of offending him, plus the death of a thousand cuts we see in the ABC, have tilted the field obscenely.
    As William said, it would be 52:48 using the previous distribution method.
    A comfortable win.

  27. 49-51 was enough for John Howard to win 80 seats in 1998.

    And that’s assuming it stays 49-51.

    Conservative governments are usually able to create a scare campaign near the election & claw-back small deficits.

    For example, 58-42 Newspoll leads by Kevin Rudd between Mar-Jul 07 became 53-47 on election day 2007.

    The ALP needs to be ahead by something like 55-45 right now, to be reasonably certain of victory.

  28. The Labor party would be ahead by more if the Murdock papers and their lackies would stop trying the kill bill thing, but they won’t and we have a lot of people that go against their own best interests in this country

  29. Edwina StJohn

    If the Opposition seems too far ahead, supporters will relax and not vote for them. It’s happened before. If the contest seems tight it brings out the best fighters.

  30. Eddie. I reckon you should run for the Labor Leadership. You clearly have all the answers and would be sure to secure a 60-40 2PP adabtage.

    Please tell us all your strategy to lead Labor to the promise land.

  32. So the true cost of including ISDS provisions in trade agreements is revealed.

    $39M
    It cost taxpayers $39M to defend our sovereign right to legislate plain packaging on cigarettes . And there may be an appeal.
    No wonder Murdoch’s IPA-run LNP Gov’t tried to conceal it.
    No state could ever defend its own innovative legislation.
    We are now governed by globalised corporations because we can’t afford the legal costs to defend our sovereignty
    Well done, Tony and Malcolm..
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/02/revealed-39m-cost-of-defending-australias-tobacco-plain-packaging-laws

  34. Grumplestiltskin
    ‏
    Just spoke to @KFC Dubbo East Manager to inform him our daughter won’t be working on Sundays from now on as KFC does not pay penalty rates.

    He told us she wouldn’t be getting any more shifts.

    This is the new Industrial Relations landscape. Casuals have no rights. None.

  35. Politics as the art of conflict is not a phenomenon confined to the United States. In Australia, we had our own Trump precursor, Tony Abbott.

    Abbott’s government replaced the first minority government formed at the federal level in Australia since the second world war. That hung parliament was characterised by deliberation and compromise, and by practical progress. Labor had to build coalitions for everything it wanted to implement, in two chambers. That parliament had a distinct deal-making milieu.

    Abbott characterised this behaviour as aberrant and illegitimate, and he styled himself as a crash-through figure, defined by strident rhetorical simplicity. Instead of “Make America Great Again” and “Drain the Swamp”, we had “Axe the Tax” (which wasn’t a tax, but never mind) and “Stop the Boats” – his own nationalist pitch.

    Malcolm Turnbull has toned down Abbott’s combativeness, and in the early phase of his prime ministership, he tried to create some public space for complex debate.

    But his government also speaks out of both sides of its mouth. Turnbull likes to contrast his pragmatism with Abbott’s obduracy, but he also persists with zero-sum rhetoric.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/02/clickbait-and-gotcha-moments-how-political-conflict-became-a-commodity?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

  36. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    In a good spit Ross Gittins sends a message to Canberra. “It’s not taxes, it’s wages, stupid”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/memo-canberra-it-s-not-taxes-it-s-wages-stupid-20180701-p4zosw.html
    Jess Irvine explains how behavioural economics are working.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/secret-b-team-saves-money-for-taxpayers-20180701-p4zoui.html
    David Crowe says the aftermath of Labor’s hasty retreat on tax policy sets up a fundamental question for the next election about who Shorten is fighting for.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/this-is-a-key-moment-about-what-labor-is-fighting-for-20180701-p4zovc.html
    In this extract from On Disruption, Katharine Murphy looks at the demise of thoughtful long-term policy making and the ‘new, now’ news cycle.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/02/clickbait-and-gotcha-moments-how-political-conflict-became-a-commodity
    Shorten, has promised to restore penalty rates in the first 100 days of government and commit $6bn in federal funding for western Sydney rail projects if he’s successful at the next federal election.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/01/shorten-promises-to-restore-penalty-rates-and-spend-6bn-on-sydney-rail
    The SMH editorial expresses grave concern over what Trump will do to the US Supreme Court.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/first-the-presidency-now-the-judiciary-20180701-p4zovm.html
    Here’s an example of the new child care rules at work.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/from-today-i-ll-be-paying-45-a-day-to-go-to-work-20180701-p4zouo.html
    Urban Wronski says that Turnbull’s Kill Bill show won’t hide his failure to sell his NEG to his back bench.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2018/07/01/turnbulls-kill-bill-show-wont-hide-his-failure-to-sell-his-neg-to-his-back-bench/
    Michael West gave an address on identity theft prepared for the Legal Services Commission of South Australia’s annual conference last week. Here are some edited highlights from it.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/hobsons-choice-corporate-reputation-secrecy-and-identity-theft/
    David Dixon writes that the government has waited until now to press charges over Witness K’s decision to blow the whistle on what Australia did in East Timor. The real offence is not breaching secrecy, but embarrassing Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/prosecution-of-witness-k-and-his-lawyer-is-a-disgraceful-act-of-revenge-20180701-p4zou5.html
    Larry Elliott says that Trump will soon find that winning a trade war is not that easy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/01/trump-will-soon-find-that-winning-a-trade-war-is-not-that-easy
    The high-profile restaurant business fronted by celebrity chef Neil Perry is significantly underpaying key staff as they work up to 70 hours a week in harsh conditions and the Workplace Minister is going to investigate it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/workplace-minister-to-pursue-allegations-against-rockpool-empire-20180701-p4zotr.html
    Cole Latimer tells us how high wholesale electricity prices will be the new normal and while government actions to drive down power bills can reduce costs for households, the Grattan Institute warned that intervention to stop electricity retailers ‘gaming’ the system may make prices worse.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-130-per-cent-power-price-surge-that-reveals-a-broken-market-20180629-p4zolp.html
    Amanda Vanstone with an eminently sensible article on assisted dying and other issues dominated by religious conservatives.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/can-t-we-just-be-decent-to-people-at-the-end-of-their-lives-20180629-p4zok5.html
    Market economists have sharply pushed out the expected timing of the next Reserve Bank interest rate rise, tipping rates on hold through to June 2019.
    https://outline.com/C6xr7w
    Germany’s interior minister has announced his intention to resign from all political posts after a tense showdown with Angela Merkel over migration curbs, German media reported on Sunday evening.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/01/merkel-fights-to-save-coalition-from-division-over-migration
    Female Liberals are worse under Malcolm Turnbull than Tony Abbott and Karen Reynolds reckons it will get worse.
    https://outline.com/NrtNux
    The Andrews government is facing growing calls in the state parliament to demonstrate its commitment to responsible gambling practices, and to wind back what critics say are the “special exemptions” for Crown.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/crown-s-turbo-charged-pokies-deal-cops-heat-20180701-p4zoti.html
    Sky News apologises after a disgusting effort in the disgusting “Outsiders” program hosted by the disgusting Rowan Dean and Ross Cameron and disgusting guest David Leyonhjelm.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/jul/01/sky-news-apologises-for-featuring-appalling-comments-about-sarah-hanson-young
    Law firms are offering free dinner, laundry and weekends away as they help staff face crushing workloads from the banking royal commission.
    https://outline.com/hzY3dc
    Skewed reporting on negotiations between the Ramsay Centre and the ANU has given way to massive overreach by the Turnbull Government, challenging not only academic standards but also the independence of universities from the whims of political parties, writes Sam Brennan.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-australian-misreports-ramsay-centre-for-western-civilisation-firestorm-,11651
    Will Foxtel move to internet/mobile streaming for its premium product?
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-key-lesson-from-floptus-that-foxtel-and-others-must-heed-20180701-p4zosz.html
    Victorian Liberal Party president Michael Kroger is plotting another legal attack on the party’s biggest donor, the Cormack Foundation. The Libs love to eat their own!
    https://outline.com/MY4pDT
    KPMG staff accused of rigging a $600,000 review of the ABS’s IT systems may be called to appear before a parliamentary inquiry. Good!
    https://outline.com/GA383K
    For most women in Australia, the decision about whether or not to have a baby is a profoundly personal one. But for some, control over this decision is taken away from them, usually by an abusive male partner. This can happen via the use of verbal pressure, threats, blackmail, physical violence or rape.
    https://theconversation.com/how-forced-pregnancies-and-abortions-deny-women-control-over-their-own-bodies-96982
    A book has been written about the Trump family’s mob morality.
    https://outline.com/qKBsaj
    Is Bitcoin buggered?
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/bitcoin-bloodbath-nears-historic-levels-20180702-p4zox4.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe is back!!!

    From Matt Golding.

    A Mark Knight catch up.



    And from Sean Leahy.



    Jon Kudelka on Shorten’s captain’s call.
    Just a few in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-july-2-2018-20180701-h123ze.html

  37. My prediction is that Labor will win both the Braddon and Longman by-elections, however there likely be a quite small swing to Labor. The media will report this as a good result for the government and a bad one for the Opposition, which will give Turnbull the confidence needed to go to a Spring election.

  38. This Pulitzer winning writer has a gloomy view of the future for the US.

    The Coming Collapse

    The Trump administration did not rise, prima facie, like Venus on a half shell from the sea. Donald Trump is the result of a long process of political, cultural and social decay. He is a product of our failed democracy. The longer we perpetuate the fiction that we live in a functioning democracy, that Trump and the political mutations around him are somehow an aberrant deviation that can be vanquished in the next election, the more we will hurtle toward tyranny. The problem is not Trump. It is a political system, dominated by corporate power and the mandarins of the two major political parties, in which we don’t count.

    ……………….Trump has tapped into the hatred that huge segments of the American public have for a political and economic system that has betrayed them. He may be inept, degenerate, dishonest and a narcissist, but he adeptly ridicules the system they despise. His cruel and demeaning taunts …………

    https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-coming-collapse/

  39. Here’s an example of the new child care rules at work

    FMD !! That is the 3rd family the SMH have dragged up and played violins for as they describe the awful struggle they face surviving on over $351,000 pa. Can’t remember seeing any articles about families at the other end of the income spectrum and the effect of the penalty rate chop. But hey ho front page stuff for those getting $6870+ p/w

  40. ‘Edwina you try to put Shorten and the Labor party down all the time, give it a break, they have and are in front 2pp for over two years now’

    Please, can we be sensible.
    I don’t think being realistic is necessarily putting anything down.
    A 52/48 lead will evaporate within a week of an election being called.

    Blind Freddy can see the trend.
    Labor are gong to need something more.

    Turnbull may well be doing Shorten slowly…has that thought occurred to anyone not looking through their special koolaid glasses?

  41. One Nation supporters have broken with party leader Pauline Hanson’s position on company tax cuts, with almost three-quarters backing them for all businesses and a majority wanting them done immediately.

    With the issue now set to ­become a key battleground in the Longman by-election, the minor conservative party will be tested following Senator Hanson’s decision last week to reverse her support for the remaining tax cuts.

    Senator Hanson is now set to direct preferences to the Liberal Party in Longman, a move that boosts the Coalition’s chances of winning the seat.

    But the Queensland firebrand has failed to reap any political dividend for her change of heart, with her party’s popular support not moving since her announcement, remaining stuck at a low 6 per cent nationally.

    The tax cuts, which represent slightly more than half the $65 billion tax package, would ­extend tax relief to businesses beyond those that exist for businesses with turnovers of less than $50 million.
    A Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian revealed that 52 per cent of One Nation voters believed the full company tax cuts — extending the cuts from small and medium businesses to larger companies and dropping the rate from 30 per cent to 25 per cent — should be passed on as soon as possible.

    A further 20 per cent believed the cuts should be phased in over the 10-year program outlined by the government. Combined, the polls reveal 72 per cent support for the full company tax plan among One Nation voters. Only 2 per cent had not made up their minds, reflecting the strength of opinion among One Nation supporters compared with the major parties, where un­decided voters were four times higher.

    The results also jar with Senator Hanson’s changed position on the cuts to now oppose them, which is seen largely as in response to a fear they were unpopular with her base.

  43. ‘ It is a political system, dominated by corporate power and the mandarins of the two major political parties, in which we don’t count.’

    Voters don’t count when they don’t care.

    The way people vote determines the way candidates behave – and who the candidates are.

    Vote for Labor or Liberal out of habit, and the relevant party will decide who your MP is.

    If Americans voted in greater numbers, what voters wanted in a candidate would determine who they got to vote for. Instead, it operates the other way around – the parties put up the candidate they find the most appealing, and then run around trying to get voters to support them.

    The Farrer branch of the Nats decided to run primaries to determine Tim Fischer’s replacement. Unsurprisingly, a membership which consisted of old, white farmers elected an old white farmer (older than Fischer, who was retiring). He had zero appeal to the voters in the electorate who weren’t National Party members, and they elected a young woman instead.

  44. It really is a disgrace how Abbott and Murdoch hoodwinked enough people that high energy prices were caused by the “carbon tax”.

    Australia’s high wholesale electricity prices are the “new normal” and politicians need to be honest with voters about it, the Grattan Institute thinktank says.

    It says federal and state governments must tell voters that government intervention to keep ageing legacy assets – such as old coal-fired power stations – working is a poor long-term solution and the problem can only be fixed with credible, bipartisan energy and climate change policy that encourages new investment.

    The Grattan Institute has released a new paper, Mostly Working: Australia’s Wholesale Electricity Market, that has identified three underlying causes of higher energy prices in the National Electricity Market in recent years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/01/australias-high-electricity-prices-the-new-normal-report-says

  45. This Newspoll seems to be being reported through the prism of tax cuts and Shorten’s backflip. I would have thought neither of those issues would have had time to resonate yet.

  47. “This Newspoll seems to be being reported through the prism of tax cuts and Shorten’s backflip. I would have thought neither of those issues would have had time to resonate yet.”

    Yeah I agree it is much too soon, although there is a risk the initial position played well and the backflip not so much, so you might have some of positive in here but the negative is to hit later.

  49. Good morning Propellor Cap Boy.

    You are very good at quoting the doctrinaire jargon of others.

    What do you actually think? Do you have any real life experience beyond booked learned cant?

  50. I have been watching ABC News 24 for over 90minutes now and not even a mention of Newspoll or ziltchamondo about the Labor Conference.

    I think the world out there is more concerned about Grant winning the logie, the world cup, and the arrest of the wanted man in the body in a barrell murder.

    The next newspoll is how many weeks away and what, we are in a winter recess.

    Steady as she goes Captain.

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