Newspoll has the Coalition gaining a point on last fortnight to narrow the gap to 51-49, maintaining a pattern over the past six polls of movement back and forth between 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, only the second time it has reached that level since early November 2016 (the previous such occasion being three polls ago), while Labor and the Greens are both down a point, to 37% and 9% respectively, and One Nation is steady on 6%. However, a straightforward application of 2016 election preferences, rather than the more Coalition-friendly split of One Nation preferences that Newspoll has adopted reflecting recent state election results, would still leave Labor’s lead at 52-48.
Perhaps the best news for the government is a two point increase in Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating to 42%, which is his best result from Newspoll since March 2016, while his disapproval is down two to 48%, its lowest since the poll on the eve of the July 2016 election. Conversely, Bill Shorten is down one on approval 32% and up two on disapproval to 57%, although Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-31. The poll was conducted THursday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.
659 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”
Same Same. MoE. And a very little of a result for so much Kill Bill energy.
About to go to dinner with some Greek Aussies who own a house just up from where I stay here on Serifos, she is a wonderful cook so looking forward to it. They own a winery in Victoria .
Of course Mal has a >PM approval rating.
As a Labor person I think he is the bees knees of a Lib PM. Suits me for him to stay the Lib leader.
Besides, Mal paid for the position. He should keep it.
Fair is fair.
Exactly Puffy. So much for CPG
I am enjoying 20c in Broome. It’s three dog nights in Adelaide.
The pain for Spain means they’re on the plane.
CPG could not find its rectum if it sat bare on a pile of chilli powder.
Spain is always gunna but never does.
Puffytmd @ #8 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 1:00 am
A goal each to Croatia and Denmark in the first 4 minutes.
Morning all. As with the previous Reachtell this is still in MOE. Shorten’s tax flip flop would not have helped but neither would Turnbull’s desire to cut taxes for the wealthy.
This is a good policy and worth campaigning on. Public transport in western Sydney is woeful. It is one sixth of the cost of Westconnex.
Adelaide Uni administration (who outnumber teaching and research staff combined) try to deny the idiotic ad they dreamt up and approved.
When will a cash hungry government start cost cutting in an area where it can do some good – like uni admin? I have never encountered a more out of touch and inefficient bureaucracy, answerable to none.
Greg Jericho reminded us on the weekend that someone on $200k is not “middle” class unless you have given up on egalitarianism. Labor should campaign on this.
$200k pa ? Positively struggle street compared to this hard done by family.
Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
Did you catch this gem about Malcolm Turnbull in Bill’s speech yesterday?
Apparently, back in the day, Malcolm Turnbull reached out through Neville Wran to see if he could become…
….Secretary of the AWU! 😀
That family claim to be spending $800 a week in childcare, seems excessive to me.
From the previous thread:
Um, the Coalition have been trying for the last 5 years! I guess they’ll keep trying in Opposition too. With the same amount of success. 😉
It’s time -time for one of doyley’s This is all to be expected , maintain the faith posts. Group therapy is very popular on pb.
Sadly the objective reality is labor has flatlined Under it’s present leadership. One per cent primary vote improvement in 2 years from 36 to 37does not an election victory maketh.
Implicit in your comment, Edwina, is the LNP are so crap that Labor should have improved their PV by a lot more than they have.
Oh I do agree Maude. An effective opposition should be ahead something like 55-56 2ppv. It’s the weakness of labor that has allowed the turnbully to stay competitive.
Edwina you try to put Shorten and the Labor party down all the time, give it a break, they have and are in front 2pp for over two years now, being a Labor persons if it was the other way round( God forbid) I would at least congratulate them on that alone
One out of touch group of elitists competing against another out of touch group of elitists Vanessa. What’s to celebrate or congratulate ?
The number of native birds in an area declines by half with the loss of every 5 mature eucalypts. So how can we keep old trees in cities?
That assumes a level playing field, Edwina, which it clearly is not.
Murdoch’s control of the media, plus the fear politicians have of offending him, plus the death of a thousand cuts we see in the ABC, have tilted the field obscenely.
As William said, it would be 52:48 using the previous distribution method.
A comfortable win.
49-51 was enough for John Howard to win 80 seats in 1998.
And that’s assuming it stays 49-51.
Conservative governments are usually able to create a scare campaign near the election & claw-back small deficits.
For example, 58-42 Newspoll leads by Kevin Rudd between Mar-Jul 07 became 53-47 on election day 2007.
The ALP needs to be ahead by something like 55-45 right now, to be reasonably certain of victory.
The Labor party would be ahead by more if the Murdock papers and their lackies would stop trying the kill bill thing, but they won’t and we have a lot of people that go against their own best interests in this country
If the Opposition seems too far ahead, supporters will relax and not vote for them. It’s happened before. If the contest seems tight it brings out the best fighters.
Eddie. I reckon you should run for the Labor Leadership. You clearly have all the answers and would be sure to secure a 60-40 2PP adabtage.
Please tell us all your strategy to lead Labor to the promise land.
I get it Lizzie, it’s actually a cunning strategy by the opposition to suppress its vote.
So the true cost of including ISDS provisions in trade agreements is revealed.
It cost taxpayers $39M to defend our sovereign right to legislate plain packaging on cigarettes . And there may be an appeal.
No wonder Murdoch’s IPA-run LNP Gov’t tried to conceal it.
No state could ever defend its own innovative legislation.
We are now governed by globalised corporations because we can’t afford the legal costs to defend our sovereignty
Well done, Tony and Malcolm..
That extra glass.
You’ll come good after a nab.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
In a good spit Ross Gittins sends a message to Canberra. “It’s not taxes, it’s wages, stupid”.
Jess Irvine explains how behavioural economics are working.
David Crowe says the aftermath of Labor’s hasty retreat on tax policy sets up a fundamental question for the next election about who Shorten is fighting for.
In this extract from On Disruption, Katharine Murphy looks at the demise of thoughtful long-term policy making and the ‘new, now’ news cycle.
Shorten, has promised to restore penalty rates in the first 100 days of government and commit $6bn in federal funding for western Sydney rail projects if he’s successful at the next federal election.
The SMH editorial expresses grave concern over what Trump will do to the US Supreme Court.
Here’s an example of the new child care rules at work.
Urban Wronski says that Turnbull’s Kill Bill show won’t hide his failure to sell his NEG to his back bench.
Michael West gave an address on identity theft prepared for the Legal Services Commission of South Australia’s annual conference last week. Here are some edited highlights from it.
David Dixon writes that the government has waited until now to press charges over Witness K’s decision to blow the whistle on what Australia did in East Timor. The real offence is not breaching secrecy, but embarrassing Australia.
Larry Elliott says that Trump will soon find that winning a trade war is not that easy.
The high-profile restaurant business fronted by celebrity chef Neil Perry is significantly underpaying key staff as they work up to 70 hours a week in harsh conditions and the Workplace Minister is going to investigate it.
Cole Latimer tells us how high wholesale electricity prices will be the new normal and while government actions to drive down power bills can reduce costs for households, the Grattan Institute warned that intervention to stop electricity retailers ‘gaming’ the system may make prices worse.
Amanda Vanstone with an eminently sensible article on assisted dying and other issues dominated by religious conservatives.
Market economists have sharply pushed out the expected timing of the next Reserve Bank interest rate rise, tipping rates on hold through to June 2019.
Germany’s interior minister has announced his intention to resign from all political posts after a tense showdown with Angela Merkel over migration curbs, German media reported on Sunday evening.
Female Liberals are worse under Malcolm Turnbull than Tony Abbott and Karen Reynolds reckons it will get worse.
The Andrews government is facing growing calls in the state parliament to demonstrate its commitment to responsible gambling practices, and to wind back what critics say are the “special exemptions” for Crown.
Sky News apologises after a disgusting effort in the disgusting “Outsiders” program hosted by the disgusting Rowan Dean and Ross Cameron and disgusting guest David Leyonhjelm.
Law firms are offering free dinner, laundry and weekends away as they help staff face crushing workloads from the banking royal commission.
Skewed reporting on negotiations between the Ramsay Centre and the ANU has given way to massive overreach by the Turnbull Government, challenging not only academic standards but also the independence of universities from the whims of political parties, writes Sam Brennan.
Will Foxtel move to internet/mobile streaming for its premium product?
Victorian Liberal Party president Michael Kroger is plotting another legal attack on the party’s biggest donor, the Cormack Foundation. The Libs love to eat their own!
KPMG staff accused of rigging a $600,000 review of the ABS’s IT systems may be called to appear before a parliamentary inquiry. Good!
For most women in Australia, the decision about whether or not to have a baby is a profoundly personal one. But for some, control over this decision is taken away from them, usually by an abusive male partner. This can happen via the use of verbal pressure, threats, blackmail, physical violence or rape.
A book has been written about the Trump family’s mob morality.
Is Bitcoin buggered?
David Rowe is back!!!
From Matt Golding.
A Mark Knight catch up.
And from Sean Leahy.
Jon Kudelka on Shorten’s captain’s call.
Just a few in here.
My prediction is that Labor will win both the Braddon and Longman by-elections, however there likely be a quite small swing to Labor. The media will report this as a good result for the government and a bad one for the Opposition, which will give Turnbull the confidence needed to go to a Spring election.
This Pulitzer winning writer has a gloomy view of the future for the US.
FMD !! That is the 3rd family the SMH have dragged up and played violins for as they describe the awful struggle they face surviving on over $351,000 pa. Can’t remember seeing any articles about families at the other end of the income spectrum and the effect of the penalty rate chop. But hey ho front page stuff for those getting $6870+ p/w
‘Edwina you try to put Shorten and the Labor party down all the time, give it a break, they have and are in front 2pp for over two years now’
Please, can we be sensible.
I don’t think being realistic is necessarily putting anything down.
A 52/48 lead will evaporate within a week of an election being called.
Blind Freddy can see the trend.
Labor are gong to need something more.
Turnbull may well be doing Shorten slowly…has that thought occurred to anyone not looking through their special koolaid glasses?
One Nation supporters have broken with party leader Pauline Hanson’s position on company tax cuts, with almost three-quarters backing them for all businesses and a majority wanting them done immediately.
With the issue now set to become a key battleground in the Longman by-election, the minor conservative party will be tested following Senator Hanson’s decision last week to reverse her support for the remaining tax cuts.
Senator Hanson is now set to direct preferences to the Liberal Party in Longman, a move that boosts the Coalition’s chances of winning the seat.
But the Queensland firebrand has failed to reap any political dividend for her change of heart, with her party’s popular support not moving since her announcement, remaining stuck at a low 6 per cent nationally.
The tax cuts, which represent slightly more than half the $65 billion tax package, would extend tax relief to businesses beyond those that exist for businesses with turnovers of less than $50 million.
A Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian revealed that 52 per cent of One Nation voters believed the full company tax cuts — extending the cuts from small and medium businesses to larger companies and dropping the rate from 30 per cent to 25 per cent — should be passed on as soon as possible.
A further 20 per cent believed the cuts should be phased in over the 10-year program outlined by the government. Combined, the polls reveal 72 per cent support for the full company tax plan among One Nation voters. Only 2 per cent had not made up their minds, reflecting the strength of opinion among One Nation supporters compared with the major parties, where undecided voters were four times higher.
The results also jar with Senator Hanson’s changed position on the cuts to now oppose them, which is seen largely as in response to a fear they were unpopular with her base.
Poll Bludger comments provide a microcosm of this phenomenon.
‘ It is a political system, dominated by corporate power and the mandarins of the two major political parties, in which we don’t count.’
Voters don’t count when they don’t care.
The way people vote determines the way candidates behave – and who the candidates are.
Vote for Labor or Liberal out of habit, and the relevant party will decide who your MP is.
If Americans voted in greater numbers, what voters wanted in a candidate would determine who they got to vote for. Instead, it operates the other way around – the parties put up the candidate they find the most appealing, and then run around trying to get voters to support them.
The Farrer branch of the Nats decided to run primaries to determine Tim Fischer’s replacement. Unsurprisingly, a membership which consisted of old, white farmers elected an old white farmer (older than Fischer, who was retiring). He had zero appeal to the voters in the electorate who weren’t National Party members, and they elected a young woman instead.
It really is a disgrace how Abbott and Murdoch hoodwinked enough people that high energy prices were caused by the “carbon tax”.
This Newspoll seems to be being reported through the prism of tax cuts and Shorten’s backflip. I would have thought neither of those issues would have had time to resonate yet.
Thanks BK. Am so glad Rowe has returned.
“This Newspoll seems to be being reported through the prism of tax cuts and Shorten’s backflip. I would have thought neither of those issues would have had time to resonate yet.”
Yeah I agree it is much too soon, although there is a risk the initial position played well and the backflip not so much, so you might have some of positive in here but the negative is to hit later.
zoomster @ #45 Monday, July 2nd, 2018 – 6:29 am
It’s convenient. You know how he media rolls.
Good morning Propellor Cap Boy.
You are very good at quoting the doctrinaire jargon of others.
What do you actually think? Do you have any real life experience beyond booked learned cant?
I have been watching ABC News 24 for over 90minutes now and not even a mention of Newspoll or ziltchamondo about the Labor Conference.
I think the world out there is more concerned about Grant winning the logie, the world cup, and the arrest of the wanted man in the body in a barrell murder.
The next newspoll is how many weeks away and what, we are in a winter recess.
Steady as she goes Captain.